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Bond Markets Move Into Positive Territory (Really)
Posted to: Micro News
Friday, May 2, 2014 10:56 AM

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While there is some linear cause and effect to lean on, this is now officially the wildest reaction in bond markets to a big NFP beat in at least the past 5 years.  Despite being right up against the best levels of the 3-month range and in spite of the much better-than-expected NFP data, bond markets are now back into positive territory.

The most likely suspect driving the paradoxical price action is geopolitical risk.  Headlines concerning Ukraine have been ongoing this morning, and range from helicopters being shot down, to accusations of Russian troops trying to enter Ukraine to fatal gunfire, and last but not least, Russia calling an emergency UN Security Council meeting. 

Add this to what increasingly looked like an underlying predisposition to rally, and bond markets are doing just that.  10yr yields dropped all the way to 2.5735 at one point and are now at 2.60.  Fannie 4.0s are 6 ticks improved on the day at 105-04, matching their best levels since Novemeber.

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