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Bond Markets Improve Following Weaker Consumer Confidence Data
Posted to: Micro News
Tuesday, April 29, 2014 10:17 AM
- April Consumer Confidence 82.3 vs 83.0 forecast. 83.9 in March
- 'Present Situation' 78.3 vs 82.5 in March
- 'Expectations' 84.9 vs 84.8 in March
- 'Jobs-Hard-To-Get' 32.5 vs 31.4 in March
- 'Jobs Plentiful' 13.1 vs 13.4 in March
The most important facet of today's Consumer Confidence data is the relationship between the last two bullet points above. The difference between them is known as the "labor differential," and is one of several leading indicators of Friday's Nonfarm payrolls. Simply put, a modest weakening in the labor differential makes a modestly negative comment on NFP, and thus a modest rally for bond markets, which is exactly what we have.
10yr yields are down to 2.711 from 2.724 on the headlines and Fannie 4.0 MBS are up from 104-10 to 104-12. These are only token gains for now, but they also serve the function of corralling weakness. For instance, if the data had been stronger than expected, we may well have broken into the worst levels of the day, and risked a 'snowball selling' situation.
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