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Knee Jerk Rally Fighting for Survival After Near-Consensus NFP
Posted to: Micro News
Friday, April 4, 2014 8:46 AM

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Nonfarm payrolls came int just slightly lower than expected, but in terms of total jobs, the last 2 months of revisions added 37k.  Today's payrolls were 192k vs a 200k forecast. 

The jobless rate ticked up to 6.7 as labor force participation increased, and private payrolls were almost perfectly in line with forecasts--192k vs 195k.

Bond markets rallied sharply in the first minute or two with 10yr yields moving down to the high 2.75's before returning to unchanged levels.  They've since turned course yet again and are about half-way back to their best levels--currently 2.777.

MBS have outperformed a bit, and been less volatile in the wake of the data.  Fannie 4.0s are near their 103-31 highs (1 tick off at 103-30 at the moment).

Frankly, the rally is only justified if you assume that bond markets were prepared to get smacked with a much stronger result, because today's result is fairly strong.  If the previous two months hadn't been revised, it would be like getting a 229k print.  Considering that, any closing level today that leaves bond markets unchanged or better is a victory.

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Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 3.63%
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  • 15 Yr FRM 2.92%
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  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.60%
MBS Prices:
Recent Housing Data:
  • Mortgage Apps 10.03%
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  • Refinance Index 11.33%
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  • Purchase Index 8.43%