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MBS hit New Lows as pre-NFP Lead-off Threatens to Begin
Posted to: Micro News
Wednesday, April 02, 2014 9:30 AM

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Could this be the pre-NFP lead-off?  The sharper mover outside a recently flat range that ramps up some time in the middle of NFP week?

Maybe...

If it is, it's pretty lackluster at the moment, and not yet legitimately challenging the range boundaries we've been discussing.  That said, with 10yr yields at 2.797 and the boundary anywhere from 2.80-2.82, we're certainly close.

Fannie 4.0s have followed the weakness in Treasuries so far this morning--currently down 7/32nds at 103-21.  It's early yet for negative reprice risk, considering the first lenders of the day are just now coming out with rate sheets.

For what it's worth, this doesn't look like and extended reaction to this morning's ADP data.  That was more of a discrete move that peaked at 8:21-ish.  The next leg up for yields (or lower for prices) arrived in lower volume near the end of the 8am hour.  Additionally, there wasn't any analogous move happening in stocks at the time, adding to the likelihood that this is a bond-market-specific shift in tradeflows.  It remains to be seen whether or not it has legs.




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