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First Move for Bond Markets is Weaker After ISM Data
Posted to: Micro News
Tuesday, April 1, 2014 10:09 AM

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ISM Manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers' index) came in slightly weaker than expected, but slightly stronger than the previous report

  • ISM PMI 53.7 vs 54.0 forecast, 53.2 previously
  • New Orders 55.1 vs 54.5 previously
  • Employment 51.1 vs 52.8 forecast, 52.3 previously (lowest since June)

Despite the weaker-than-expected headline and employment components, bond markets' initial reaction was a move into slightly weaker territory.  10yr yields are at the highs of the day, up 3.7bps in total to 2.76.  Fannie 4.0s are down 6/32nds to 103-26.

The fact that we're seeing a weaker reaction to a weaker/mixed ISM report speaks to some inherent negative bias in bond markets that transcends the data (as mentioned this morning).  We haven't seen enough weakness for negative reprices yet, but that could change if we lose another 2 ticks.

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