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MBS Holding Near Unchanged Despite Slightly Weaker Treasuries Overnight
Posted to: Micro News
Friday, March 28, 2014 8:57 AM

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Domestic bond markets were inconsequentially weaker in the overnight session.  US Treasuries notably held off on following a modest rally in core European bond markets, which could be an indication that we've reached the limits of our organic month/quarter-end demand.  It can still come from other places if that's the case, but would have to be motivated by something like an exceptionally weak reading on Consumer Sentiment at 9:55am.

The 8:30am data--Incomes and Outlays--didn't cut it as a market mover.  It never usually does, but today's release was particularly close to consensus.

Incomes and Outlays

  • Personal Income +0.3 vs +0.2 forecast
  • Spending +0.3 vs +0.3 forecast
  • Core PCE Price Index +0.1 vs +0.1 forecast

This hasn't resulted in any market movement, but MBS had just climbed into unchanged territory ahead of the release.  Since then, they've barely budged but are 2 ticks up on the day at 104-07.

Meanwhile, 10yr yields are weaker to the tune of 1.6bps.  There's no apparent motivation for MBS outperformance other than their underperformance yesterday. 

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Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 3.67%
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  • 15 Yr FRM 2.95%
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  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.62%
MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 108-28 (0-00)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 110-17 (-0-04)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 111-30 (0-02)
Recent Housing Data:
  • Mortgage Apps 10.03%
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  • Refinance Index 11.33%
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  • Purchase Index 8.43%