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Bond Markets Holding Ground After Claims and GDP
Posted to: Micro News
Thursday, March 27, 2014 8:50 AM

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GDP and Jobless Claims are out just now.  The former didn't really do anything interesting, coming in at 2.6 vs a 2.7 forecast and 2.4 previously.  While the evening news will be sure to mention the modest acceleration in economic growth, the real story this morning is Jobless Claims, though markets aren't doing much with it.

In late 2013, claims approached the low 320's and bounced noticeably.  They then underwent a period of heavy distortion into and out of the government shut-down and computer upgrade issues in California.  It took several more weeks for the numbers to level off again, and for market participants to put much stock in them.

Even now, it's not the most important data on the shelf, but it has been getting back to its former level of meaningfulness.  It's still just a bit too soon to plan on the continuation of this trend, but today's 311k print is the 4th time in a row that claims have been under that modal low range in the 320s.

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So far, the reaction has been good, considering the data.  There was a brief, obligatory spat of selling pressure, but it didn't last long or go very far.  10yr yields are just barely in positive territory and MBS are within 2 ticks (keep in mind that Treasuries' day-over-day change is based on 3pm on the previous day while MBS is based on 5pm). 

No clear trend has emerged since the data.  Next up is Pending Home Sales at 10am and then the 7yr Note auction at 1pm.

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