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Stronger Open on Putin 'Invasion' Wire, met with Resistance
Posted to: Micro News
Friday, March 14, 2014 9:12 AM

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Bond markets had another mostly unchanged overnight session with Treasuries trading a very narrow range in light of ongoing events and high volumes.  By the open, both 10yr yields were both within a tick of yesterday's latest levels.

Shortly thereafter, a wire came out saying "Putin is preparing to invade Eastern Ukraine" according to the Defense Minister of Estonia.  Bloomberg reported shortly thereafter that it was in an email.  If you think about that statement, and the fact that it was via email (as opposed to an official venue with more context where the words can actually be seen and heard coming from the claimed source), this might have been worth the market reaction it garnered.

Still, our expectations for today is for these sorts of headlines to be seized upon and given as much weight as possible.  Debunking and re-weighting can come later.  Buy/Sell first.  Ask questions later.

And that's exactly what we're seeing with the headline in question.  Treasuries and MBS popped into better territory immediately following the wire, but have since ebbed back closer to opening levels.  PPI data was inconsequential and uninteresting, as usual of late.  Next up is Consumer Sentiment at 9:55am.

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Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 3.63%
  • |
  • 15 Yr FRM 2.92%
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  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.60%
MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 108-31 (0-01)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 110-25 (0-00)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 111-27 (-0-03)
Recent Housing Data:
  • Mortgage Apps 10.03%
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  • Refinance Index 11.33%
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  • Purchase Index 8.43%