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Bond Markets Weaker After Overnight Session and Morning Data
Posted to: Micro News
Thursday, March 06, 2014 8:46 AM

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Both the overnight session and the first round of economic data have been roughly equal in their negative effects on MBS and Treasuries. Weakness during the overnight session was more moderately-paced, even as core European debt popped noticeably higher in yield at 6:45am.

The weakness following this morning's economic data has been sharper by comparison with 10yr yields moving up a quick 2bps to 2.737.  MBS are outperforming, but still down 4 ticks in Fannie 4.0s and 6 ticks in Fannie 3.5s.

Jobless Claims

  • 323k vs 338k forecast
  • previous week revised to 349k from 348k
  • Continued Claims 2.907 mln vs 2.973 mln forecast
  • Big downward revision from previous 2.964mln to 2.915 mln
  • Thoughts on market movement: Of the two reports out at 8:30am, this one is much more of a market mover.  This is one of the bigger gaps between expectations and actual results in Jobless Claims recently and one of the bigger downward revisions to Continued Claims.

Productivity and Costs

  • Productivity +1.8 vs +2.5 forecast
  • Unit Labor Costs -0.1 vs -0.9 forecast

The selling hasn't been catastrophic yet with 10's mounting a brief comeback into 2.72's before heading back into the 2.73's just now.  S&Ps hit a ceiling before breaking overnight highs and are back in line with unchanged levels.  Mario Draghi is answering questions at the post-ECB Rate Decision press conference.




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Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 4.25%
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  • 15 Yr FRM 3.37%
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  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.09%
MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 107-20 (0-00)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 110-10 (0-04)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 110-28 (0-03)
Recent Housing Data:
  • Mortgage Apps 2.43%
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  • Refinance Index 4.14%
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  • FHFA Home Price Index 0.67%