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Bond Markets Stronger Overnight, Little-Changed After Data
Posted to: Micro News
Monday, March 03, 2014 8:49 AM

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Treasuries rallied significantly overnight on geopolitical tensions surrounding Ukraine.  In classic 'flight-to-safety' fashion, stock prices are down big and MBS can't keep up with Treasury gains.  Fannie 3.5s are only up 7 ticks compared to 13 ticks in 10yr Treasury price (0.464 in terms of yield).

This morning's first round of data--Incomes and Outlays--isn't much of a market mover anyway, but is clearly not up to the task of giving any guidance this morning despite showing stronger-than-expected consumer spending.

Incomes and Outlays

  • Personal Income +0.3 vs +0.2 forecast
  • Spending +0.4 vs +0.1 forecast
  • Adjustments for ACA affected the spending figures

Coming up at 10am, the ISM Manufacturing report is in a different league than the spending data from 8:30am.  A noticeably stronger or weaker result will not be as easily overlooked though the situation in Ukraine could serve to limit selling pressure if the ISM data is significantly stronger.




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