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Bond Markets Slightly Weaker After GDP
Posted to: Micro News
Friday, February 28, 2014 9:19 AM

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Bond markets began the day in slightly weaker territory after stronger data in Europe.  Treasury yields rose in concert with core European debt, but began drifting back toward positive territory into the domestic open. 

MBS and Treasuries crossed the 8am mark at moderately weaker levels and lost more ground after GDP came in close to consensus.  Perhaps market participants were prepared for December's weather to have more of an impact, but that's a stretch. 

Considering the relationship between Europe and US debt overnight as well as the last 5 days of solid gains, it looks more like Treasuries/MBS were "leading off" a bit, and prepared to rally further on the chance of an exceptionally weak result.  While this result it weak compared to the 1st reading, it's close to consensus (.1% away).

US Q4 Preliminary (2nd reading) GDP

  • GDP +2.4 vs +2.5 Forecast, previous reading was +3.2
  • Consumer Spending +2.6 vs +3.3 forecast
  • Business Inventory change adds 0.14 percent, was +.42 pct previously
  • GDP Deflator +1.6 vs +1.3 forecast

On a positive note, Treasury yields have now bounced twice at the exact same ceiling level of 2.6744 in 10's.  It remains to be seen whether that ceiling is sturdy enough to endure, but the 2nd bounce speaks to some willingness to at least consider it.  Upcoming Chicago PMI data may be the next deciding factor, if not the 9:30am cash 'open' in stocks.

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