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Bond Markets Rally Through Consumer Confidence Data
Posted to: Micro News
Tuesday, February 25, 2014 10:13 AM

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MBS and Treasuries continued into positive territory both before and after the Consumer Confidence data at 10am.  The headline was slightly weaker than expected, but the employment and 'present situation' readings were stronger.  Keep in mind that a stronger present situation is exactly what we were looking for in terms of economic data that might be able to transcend the 'weather' argument. 

In that sense, the present situation reading legitimizes the headline, and with the headline being about 2 points weaker than expected (more importantly, the 'expectations' component was down 5 points), we FINALLY have a piece of data that captures some sense of economic reality.  It suggests "moderate weakness," and bond markets reacted accordingly by moving to their strongest levels in 4 sessions.

Consumer Confidence

  • 78.1 vs 80.0 forecast, 79.4 previously
  • present situation 81.7 vs 77.3 previously
  • expectations 75.7 vs 80.8 previously
  • 'jobs hard to get' 32.5 vs 32.7 previously

Treasuries are down 4bps to 2.71 (10yr yield) and MBS are now up 8 ticks to 104-15 (Fannie 4.0).  There are no other significant reports today.

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Mortgage Rates:
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  • 15 Yr FRM 2.96%
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  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.62%
MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 108-29 (0-01)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 110-22 (0-01)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 111-31 (0-03)
Recent Housing Data:
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  • Refinance Index 11.33%
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  • Purchase Index 8.43%