Register or Sign in        Email This Page     Link To This Page    
Visit MND at MBA in NYC!
# of Forum Posts

Send Article via Email

Can forward to 6 email addresses at a time. Register or Login

Registered users also get the additional advantage of Co-branded Emails and Landing Pages. Learn more about these features.

Your Name: 
Your Email: 
I want to forward this to
(Enter Email Address Below) :
Include a Personal Message (optional)

Please add 6 and 2 and type the answer here:
Leave this field blank.
Email Preview Below:
This feature is now 100% free. Learn More About Co-branded Email and our other Co-branded Services.
This email was sent to you by:
Anonymous |
Mortgage News Daily

Email alerts, such as this one, are a free service provided by Mortgage News Daily. If you would like to receive an alert when important news breaks please register to join our community.
Philly Fed Much Weaker, but so are Bond Markets; Negative Reprice Potential
Posted to: Micro News
Thursday, February 20, 2014 10:29 AM

Forward this email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Bond markets jumped into positive territory for about half a second following the Philly Fed headline.  Shortly thereafter, they lived up to our every cynical expectation by holding flat despite the massive miss. 

What's all this about?  In a word: weather.  Love it or hate it, it's having an impact on data.  In this morning's 'Day Ahead,' I noted that Philly Fed didn't hold any bullish possibility for bond markets as a negative result could be dismissed as a byproduct of the weather. 

One of the internal components of the Philly Fed data made the weather-based dismissal even easier to stomach.  The "6-month outlook" gives respondents a chance to comment on how they view business conditions over a 6-month time frame.  Whereas the headline index fell to -6.3 from 9.4 last month, the 6-month outlook rose to 40.2 from 34.4.  That stark contrast leaves little to the imagination. 

Even in the first paragraph of the report itself: " but comments suggested that much of the weakness was attributable to the severe winter weather that affected the region during the survey period."

Here's a rundown of the numbers:

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

  • -6.3 vs 8.0 forecast and 9.4 previously
  • 6-mo outlook 40.2 vs 34.4 previously
  • New orders -5.2 vs 5.1 previously
  • Employment Index 4.8 vs 10.0 previously
  • Business conditions lowest since Feb 2013, but respondents widely cite weather-related disruptions. (these are not economists or financial market people, but actual businesses in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district).

Bond markets are sliding now, with Fannie 4.0s off 5 ticks and 10yr yields up nearly 3bps.  Negative reprices are possible for earlier-pricing lenders.

More from MND:


If you would like to opt-out of receiving email forwards from this person please click here to remove your email address.

Forward this email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.


More From MND

Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 3.63%
  • |
  • 15 Yr FRM 2.92%
  • |
  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.60%
MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 108-31 (0-01)
  • |
  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 110-24 (-0-01)
  • |
  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 111-26 (-0-04)
Recent Housing Data:
  • Mortgage Apps 10.03%
  • |
  • Refinance Index 11.33%
  • |
  • Purchase Index 8.43%