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Bond Markets Trying to Hold Moderate Overnight Improvement
Posted to: Micro News
Tuesday, February 18, 2014 9:12 AM
Treasuries began the overnight session in slightly weaker territory with 10yr yields momentarily as high as 2.763. A few hours later, weak data out of Germany and tepid UK inflation brought core EU yields quickly lower with Treasuries coming along for the ride. They've since been sideways to slightly higher between 2.718 and 2.74.
MBS opened right in line with Friday's latest levels and picked up a quick 4 ticks (.125) as the Treasury rally extended into the domestic session, but are now up only 2 ticks on the day with Fannie 4.0s at 104-07.
There hasn't been any significant economic data cross the wires. NY Fed Manufacturing was out at 8:30am and Treasury International Capital a few minutes ago, but neither are significant market movers. That said, the morning's main bounce from strength to weakness occurred right in line with the Manufacturing data.
Paradoxically, the report was weaker than expected (which would tend to send yields lower instead of higher to whatever extent bonds cared about the report. The other possibility is that the 'employment' component stayed fairly strong. This could be taken as a hint that winter weather won't have as much of an impact on payrolls data as some fear it might.
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