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Industrial Production Much Weaker; Weather Cited; Bonds Rally Anyway
Posted to: Micro News
Friday, February 14, 2014 9:28 AM

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As much air-time as bad weather gets recently, you'd think markets would act less surprised when it distorts data.  But bonds and stocks are both reacting to weaker-than-expected Industrial Production numbers, despite widespread mention of weather-related challenges in the report (and one weather-related benefit). 

Here are the details from the report as well as the sections mentioning weather:

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

  • Industrial Production -0.3 vs +0.3 forecast
  • First decline since July, biggest decline since May 2009
  • Capacity Use Rate 78.5 vs 79.3
  • Manufacturing output -0.8 vs +0.1 forecast
  • "Severe weather in January contributed to a decrease of 0.8 percent for manufacturing production"
  • "For example, numerous motor vehicle assembly facilities lost one or more days of production during the month."
  • nondurable manufacturing sector companies reported "weather-related plant closures contributed to some of these decreases."
  • "Mining output moved down 0.9 percent in January, as extremely cold weather led to slowdowns at some oil and gas extraction facilities."
  • On the other side of the coin: " Output at electric and natural gas utilities surged 4.1 percent on strong heating demand because of the extremely cold weather"
  • Full Release

Treasuries made it back to unchanged levels after the data but have bounced/leveled-off for now.  MBS did the same, but their bounce has left Fannie 4.0s down 3 ticks at 104-09.  The last data this morning will be Consumer Sentiment at 9:55am.

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