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Bond Markets Stronger Overnight, Stronger Still Following Data
Posted to: Micro News
Thursday, February 13, 2014 8:56 AM

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Treasuries opened in weaker territory in Asia but then began slogging back toward unchanged levels by European hours.  Strength in  British and German debt after yesterday's rout helped Treasuries move into positive territory by the domestic open.  From there, it's been moderately weaker Jobless Claims and much weaker Retail Sales pushing both Treasuries and MBS beyond yesterday's strongest levels.

Fannie 4.0s are up 9 ticks to 104-12 and 10yr yields are down 2bps to 2.7428.  Closing below 2.75 today is important in order to avoid negative technical implications.

Here's a recap of the data.

Retail Sales

  • January Sales -0.4 vs +0.0 forecast
  • Excluding autos 0.0 vs +0.1 forecast
  • Excluding autos/building supplies/gasoline -0.3 vs +0.2 forecast
  • Our take on share of market movement: 7/10.  Claims certainly started things off, but Retail Sales reported a bit late, making it's impact more discrete and noticeable.
  • Full Release

Jobless Claims

  • 339k vs 330k forecast, 331k previously
  • Continued Claims 2.953 mln vs 2.964 mln forecast
  • Our take on share of market movement: 3/10.  This was close enough to consensus not to be a significant source of inspiration.  Nonetheless, markets have been hungry for data and the moderate weakness here made for moderate strength in bond markets, or at least gave the green light to the overnight predisposition toward strength.
  • Full Release

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  • 15 Yr FRM 2.92%
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 110-25 (0-03)
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