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Treasuries Pushing Pace of Weakness; MBS Follow; Some Reprice Risk Building
Posted to: Micro News
Wednesday, February 12, 2014 11:00 AM

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10yr yields and MBS are both at their weakest levels of the day.  With no significant domestic economic data, bond markets are paying some increased attention to European trading, particularly in UK and German bond markets.  These, more than anything, are leading the charge into weaker territory.

To the same extent that US Treasuries are reluctantly following European bonds, MBS are similarly following Treasuries--each a bit more detached, such that MBS are down only 5 ticks in Fannie 4.0s vs a 12 tick loss in 10yr Treasury prices.

3-4 ticks of the weakness has been seen since the first rate sheets of the day, leaving us very close to reprice risk territory.  At these levels, it's not abundantly likely that we'll see negative reprices, but neither would it be a surprise resulting in indignant exclamation.   

10's look like they'll try to scrape together some support at 2.76, but if that's broken, and more importantly, if Fannie 4.0s break below 104-07, reprice risk would increase.

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Mortgage Rates:
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  • 15 Yr FRM 2.95%
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MBS Prices:
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 110-17 (-0-04)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 111-30 (0-02)
Recent Housing Data:
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  • Refinance Index 11.33%
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  • Purchase Index 8.43%