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NFP Much Weaker Than Expected, Bond Markets Rallying, But Thinking About Weather (maybe)
Posted to: Micro News
Friday, February 07, 2014 8:40 AM

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Here are the details on the data:

  • Nonfarm Payrolls +113k vs +185k forecast
  • December only revised to 75k from 74k previously
  • November revised to 274k from 241k previously
  • Private payrolls +142k vs 185k forecast
  • Unemployment 6.6 pct, lowest since 10/2008
  • Labor Force Participation rate 63.0 vs 62.8 previously
  • Full Release

The most damning testimony for the economy isn't so much the 113k payrolls this time, though that does hurt.  Rather, it's the lack of revision to last month's horrible 74k payrolls.  Even on the private payrolls front, last month's 87k print only came up to 89k.

If there's any saving grace for this data, it's the current private payrolls headline which showed 142k jobs created vs a 185k forecast.  If we're to accept that the weather had as much of an impact as some have suggested, this would actually mean today's report is fairly close to consensus. 

As such, if we see bond markets make no further progress than their initial jolt into positive territory, this might be why.  In other words, the mere POSSIBILITY that weather can explain away some of the gap means there's a chance this isn't weak enough for us to see any further progress. 

10's shot down to 2.633 from 2.72 immediately but are up to 2.658 currently.  MBS jumped from 104-18 to 104-31 and are holding there.




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