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Bond Markets Little-Changed to Marginally Weaker After PMI and Sentiment Data
Posted to: Micro News
Friday, January 31, 2014 10:11 AM

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The two biggest potential market movers of the day (in terms of economic data) are out and they couldn't have been less exciting.  Here's the run-down:

Chicago PMI

  • PMI 59.6 vs 59.0 forecast, 60.8 previously
  • "The Employment component fell sharply for the second consecutive month to the lowest since April 2013. The majority of companies said their workforce was unchanged with some of them reporting higher productivity of their employees."
  • Our take on share of (lack of) market movement: would normally be in the neighborhood of 6-7 out of 10, but considering the flatness, that doesn't much matter.  The slightly stronger headline is easily offset by the weak employment internal.
  • Full Release

Consumer Sentiment

  • Sentiment 81.2 vs 81.0 forecast
  • Current Conditions 96.8 vs 95.5 forecast
  • Expectations 71.2 vs 71.5
  • Our take on share of market movement 3-4 out of 10.  Not much going on with this report today though.

If anything, the bias has been slightly weaker since the data, though that looks to be as much about the determination in equities markets as anything.  Too, the losses aren't severe--at least not yet.  Hopefully month-end bond-buying can help that continue to be the case as the day progresses, but as always, we'll keep you posted.  10yr yields are holding right at 2.66 currently, and Fannie 4.0s are up 6 at 104-24.  Fannie 3.5s are up 8 at 101-16--both of these are 2 ticks lower from 9:45am levels.

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