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Weaker Sentiment Data Failing to Stem Losses; Bond Markets Paradoxically Weaker
Posted to: Micro News
Friday, January 17, 2014 10:07 AM

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  • Consumer Sentiment 80.4 vs 83.5 forecast, 82.5 last month
  • Current Conditions 95.2 vs 98.5 forecast
  • Expectations Index 70.9 vs 74.2 forecast
  • Market Movement Thoughts: the last report was in line with the highest levels since 2007 (82-85).  So at 80.4, today's reading could have been worse from an economic standpoint.  It's close enough to that range (see the chart below) that the report essentially stands aside and we'll now see the prevailing herd mentality run its course.  In other words, if bond markets were predisposed toward strength or weakness today, that will rise to the surface presently.  So far, it looks like weakness...

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Bond markets moved into positive territory for a split second and are now back down just to the weak side of unchanged.  10yr yields increasingly look like they're respecting the band of resistance between 2.82 and 2.84.  Fannie 4.0 MBS similarly look scared to commit to breaking 104-00 resistance.  The silver lining is that the post-data weakness hasn't yet materialized into concerted selling.  It still might, but the jury is out for now.

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