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For 3rd Straight Day, Bonds Flat Overnight, Slightly Stronger After Data
Posted to: Micro News
Friday, January 17, 2014 9:14 AM

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If the overnight activity in Treasuries showed up on your 2-day chart, it would look like a very flat, very calm extension of yesterday afternoon's flat, calm trading range.  Something like this:

[Image or graph removed from email. View full article with images]

Once again, the first hour of trading has served to confirm and/or improve upon the overnight trend (3rd day in a row now), though the movement hasn't been huge.  Chalk that up to the relatively close-to-consensus print in Housing Starts.  Details of that report:

  • Housing Starts -9.8 pct, most since April
  • Starts 999k unit rate vs 990k forecast, 1,107k previously
  • Permits 986k vs 1,015k forecast
  • Single Fam starts -7.0 pct, Multi Fam -14.9
  • Market Movement Thoughts: We don't put much stock in the "biggest drop since April."  This report is a moderate market mover when far from consensus, and at 999k vs 990k forecast, this is not far from consensus.  The tepid reaction reflects that.
  • Full Release

Treasuries and MBS mildly extended their gains following the data.  Fannie 4.0s are 3 ticks higher at 104-01 and 10's 1bp lower at 2.836.  Industrial Production is coming up presently.

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Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 3.67%
  • |
  • 15 Yr FRM 2.95%
  • |
  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.62%
MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 108-28 (0-00)
  • |
  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 110-17 (-0-04)
  • |
  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 111-30 (0-02)
Recent Housing Data:
  • Mortgage Apps 10.03%
  • |
  • Refinance Index 11.33%
  • |
  • Purchase Index 8.43%