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Retail Sales Leaves bond Markets at Weaker Levels
Posted to: Micro News
Tuesday, January 14, 2014 9:09 AM

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The overnight session saw domestic bond markets move gradual higher in yield, hitting 8am nearly 3bps higher than Friday's latest levels (2.856 vs 2.827 for 10yr Treasuries). Fannie 4.0 MBS opened 6/32nds lower at 102-28.

A bounce back was already underway before the Retail Sales data hit.  There was a brief spike higher in yield (lower in MBS price) immediately following the stronger-than-expected headline on the data, but negative revisions helped moderate the tone.  Since then, we've drifted back toward the weaker levels of the day.

We're currently 4/32nds (.125) weaker in Fannie 4.0s (103-30) and 3 bps higher in Treasuries (2.854).  There is no other significant data for the day, but Business Inventories at 10am can be a small market mover as it affects GDP.

Data Recap:

Retail Sales (full release)

  • Headline Sales +0.2 vs +0.1 forecast
  • November revised to +0.4 vs 0.7 previously
  • Excluding Autos +0.7 vs +0.4 forecast
  • ex-autos for Nov revised to +0.1 vs +0.4 previously
  • Our view of the market movement weighting vs the other 830am data: 9/10
  • Outright market movement: minimal

Import Export Prices (full release)

  • Import Prices unchanged vs +0.3 forecast
  • November revised to -0.9 vs -0.6 forecast
  • Exports +0.4 vs +0.1 forecast
  • Petroleum imports down 0.1 vs -4.7 previously
  • Market Movement Weight: 1/10
  • Outright market movement: negligible

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