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Nonfarm Payrolls +74k vs +196k Forecast; HUGE Miss; Bonds Rallying Big
Posted to: Micro News
Friday, January 10, 2014 8:37 AM

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  • NFP +74k vs 196k forecast.  November revised higher to 241k from 203k
  • Unemployment 6.7 pct, lowest since 10/2008, forecast was 7.0
  • Participation Rate 62.8 from 63.0 previously

Bond markets have embarked on a face-melting rally, as one might expect given the magnitude of the miss.  10yr yields are down to 2.89's currently and Fannie 4.0 MBS are up 19 ticks to 103-19 (keep in mind the roll was last night if that price level seems small).

Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up in December (+74,000). In 2013,
job growth averaged 182,000 per month, about the same as in 2012 (+183,000
per month). In December, job gains occurred in retail trade and wholesale
trade, while employment declined in information.

The number of unemployed persons declined by 490,000 to 10.4 million
in December, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage point
to 6.7 percent. Over the year, the number of unemployed persons and the
unemployment rate were down by 1.9 million and 1.2 percentage points,

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Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 3.63%
  • |
  • 15 Yr FRM 2.92%
  • |
  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.60%
MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 108-31 (0-01)
  • |
  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 110-24 (-0-01)
  • |
  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 111-26 (-0-04)
Recent Housing Data:
  • Mortgage Apps 10.03%
  • |
  • Refinance Index 11.33%
  • |
  • Purchase Index 8.43%