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Treasuries Slightly Stronger, MBS Unchanged After Jobless Claims, Draghi
Posted to: Micro News
Thursday, January 9, 2014 9:08 AM

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The overnight session was nothing to write home about.  Yields held near 2.99 and only became slightly more volatile heading into the domestic session.

Jobless claims (details below) was close to consensus and not a big market mover this morning.  It might seem like it is when looking at charts, but the more direct correlation is to ECB President Mario Draghi's press conference headlines. 

Without putting too fine a point on it, Draghi has just been erring on the side of aggression with respect to easing.  This is nothing new from Draghi, and European markets have responded in a predictable fashion (core bond markets improving).

It's been those movements in German Bunds and other EU core debt that has had a more profound impact on domestic trading so far this morning, to whatever extent a 2bp change in 10yr yields and a 2 tick change in Fannie 4.0s could be considered profound.

Translation: pretty quiet day so far, but moderately positive thanks to ECB press conference.

Jobless Claims

  • Claims 330k vs 335k forecast
  • 4-wk Avg 349k vs 358.75k previously
  • Continued Claims 2.865 mln vs 2.84 mln forecast

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From the DOL:

In the week ending January 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 330,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 345,000.
The 4-week moving average was 349,000, a decrease of 9,750 from the previous week's revised average of 358,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.2 percent for the week ending December 28, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate.  The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending December 28 was 2,865,000, an increase of 50,000from the preceding week's revised level of 2,815,000.The 4-week moving average was 2,872,250, an increase of 18,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 2,853,500.

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