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Bond Markets Much Weaker Into Domestic Session; MBS Lagging
Posted to: Micro News
Thursday, December 19, 2013 8:52 AM

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Treasuries were calm overnight, holding a narrow range between 2.878 and 2.90. As domestic traders started filing in for the morning, bonds began selling and 10yr yields have gradually ticked up to 2.933.

Unfortunately, there was a noticeable bounce at the inflection point near 2.92, and there's a risk this will now be treated as resistance (floor) going forward.

MBS are even worse off. Fannie 4.0s are already down another 14 ticks (almost half a point) in addition to the 14 ticks lost yesterday (102-20 at the moment).

Jobless Claims were weaker than expected, but it did nothing to help bond markets. This is snowball selling and it will either need to run its course or encounter exceptionally weak economic data at 10am. As far as "running its course" goes, that could happen any time or 10's could drift another 4bps higher, bringing MBS another .375 lower, give or take an eighth.

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Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 4.44%
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  • 15 Yr FRM 3.49%
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  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.20%
MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 106-21 (-0-12)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 109-02 (-0-06)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 110-07 (-0-07)
Recent Housing Data:
  • Mortgage Apps 4.30%
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  • Refinance Index 6.92%
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  • FHFA Home Price Index 0.67%