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Bond Markets Slightly Stronger on Very Light Participation
Posted to: Micro News
Monday, December 16, 2013 8:58 AM
A better headline for this update would be "Bond Markets POSSIBLY Stronger." Although Treasuries and MBS are in positive territory so far today, it's more incidental than determined as trading activity is unsurprisingly light.
Even into the end of last week, this phenomenon had begun to play out (and we began harping on "exhaustion"). It's even worse so far this morning as MBS buyers and sellers (lucky if there's one on either side) are so far apart in price they need binoculars to communicate. That means you might see big 2-3 tick adjustments that don't really mean anything.
Normally, we'd say that the directional cues for rates could at least be seen in Treasuries, but things have been fairly equivocal there so far as well. As of this moment, 10yr yields are right around 1bp lower on the day after well-contained, low volume overnight session. Fannie 4.0s are indicated at 103-11, which is a tick higher vs Friday at 5pm.
The Empire State Manufacturing Index came out slightly weaker than expected at 8:30am and there was no bond market reaction.
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