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Bonds Bounce Back On Waxing Italian Election Uncertainty
Posted to: Micro News
Monday, February 25, 2013 10:39 AM

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A full-scale risk reversal is underway as Italian election polls stream in, showing center-right candidate Berlusconi with a marginal lead. This runs counter to previous expectations and even to early polling figures suggesting center-left Bersani would get the nod.

The effects on bond markets have been everything we'd expect from any sort of "Berlusconi > Bersani" information in that it's grounds for a bit of flight-to-safety buying in Treasuries and Bunds at the expense of Italian debt and equities markets. Everything has been shockingly logical thus far, but we don't yet know how much more room there is to run if the Berlusconi lead extends or how much bounce back into weaker levels we'd see if it evaporates.

US 10's are down to 1.9653 and Fannie 3.0 MBS are up to 'unchanged' levels at 102-31+. For an idea of the pace of the movements, since bottoming out at 4.19 after the first polls, Italian 10's are up to 4.34 now (as these move higher, German and US debt tend to move lower).

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