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Bond Markets Testing Limits of Weakness Pre-FOMC
Posted to: Micro News
Wednesday, February 20, 2013 9:11 AM

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With the exception of a few moments on 2/14, 10yr yields have been no higher than they are right now since the beginning of April 2012. 2.049% was tested several times in the overnight session after a flat open in Asia gave way to weakness in European markets. The latter was initially offset by dovish minutes from England's Central Bank, but ultimately trumped by tightening peripheral spreads and a weak German Bund auction. An ECB governor noted that that the Central Bank would not conduct new easing simply to benefit Germany or core countries.

Communication from Central Banks will continue to be the focus of the day (and week for that matter), as this afternoon's Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting loom large at 2pm. Between now and then, bond markets are certainly already on the back foot as they hook up with equities for a bit of a "risk-on" trade following this morning's data.

Equities futures just made it back over 4pm levels, climbing mostly steadily since internal components of this morning's Housing Starts data were bullish on Single-Family starts, and Building Permits were the highest since mid-2008. This has 10's back up against the ceiling at 2.05, and Fannie 3.0 MBS back in line with opening lows at 102-21. We're expecting the environment to continue to be tougher than not ahead of the Fed Minutes.

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Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 3.63%
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  • 15 Yr FRM 2.92%
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  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.60%
MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 108-30 (-0-02)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 110-22 (0-03)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 111-26 (-0-02)
Recent Housing Data:
  • Mortgage Apps 10.03%
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  • Refinance Index 11.33%
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  • Purchase Index 8.43%