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10yr Auction Bullet Point Preview
Posted to: Micro News
Wednesday, February 13, 2013 12:44 PM

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  • The last 4 auctions have alternated between higher and lower than expected yields, but as far as "Refunding" auctions go (which is what today is), the last two have been the worst two since 11/8/11.
  • Dec 2011 through July 2012 (the latter being the strongest 10yr Auction on record--my records anyway) marked a time of almost exclusive success for 10 auctions. These were the "glory days," in a sense, and we've been trending weaker since then in terms of bid-to-cover, awarded yield vs consensus, and indirect bidding.
  • Santelli's grade will be lower than it otherwise would be today because he won't differentiate between the disparate BTC statistics between Refundings and Reopenings.
  • Refundings like today's average 2.76, Reopenings average 2.97.
  • BUT, the refunding average is grossly distorted by the 2 OLDER auctions of the last 4. Those two go back into those "glory days" I mentioned and came in at 2.9 and 3.05.
  • The two most recent BTCs were 2.59 and 2.49...ipso facto, 2.54-ish would be a more appropriate BTC consensus.

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