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The Day Ahead: Slightly More on Tap, Emphasis on Slightly
Posted to: MBS Commentary
Tuesday, February 12, 2013 7:30 AM

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Precious little transpired on Monday with Asian accounts absent on Holiday, weather-related absences in New York, and the general absence of market-moving data and events, scheduled or otherwise.  Volume was as low as it's been all year, and combined with low volatility, made for an intensely soporific slide sideways.  

Will Tuesday be any better?  The level of market participation should improve somewhat as Japan is back in action during Asian hours though China remains out today and tomorrow for the Lunar New Year holidays.  This isn't to say that Chinese markets typically have a noticeable trickle-down effect to mortgage lenders rate sheets, but volume and activity beget volume and activity.  Not so much "begetting" yesterday... Slightly more today...

There remains zero on tap in terms of domestic economic data (unless you're a deep thinker on labor markets and want to count the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS).  Hard-pressed as we are to find anything to talk about, we might mention the Federal Budget will be reported at 2pm, but like JOLTS (and most everything else on the calendar), it would be a surprise to this move markets.  The best bets are the Fed speakers, especially new-for-2013 voter Esther George.  Considering she was the lone dissenter at the last meeting, markets expect hawkishness.  If they get something else, it could add to any bond market bullishness that happens to be in place.

The Treasury auction cycle begins with 3yr Notes at 1pm.  3's have tended to have no impact on mortgage rates for about a year and a half, and while that may change some day, it's probably too soon.  Markets have already had a chance to buy 3's post-FOMC-Minutes drama (increased uncertainty about eventual QE exit), and it was drama-free.  Today's auction would have to be quite an outlier to produce a different result, but whereas we'd completely ignore 3's before that, we'd only "mostly ignore" them today.

MBS Live Econ Calendar:

Week Of Mon, Feb 11 2013 - Fri, Feb 15 2013

Time

Event

Period

Unit

Forecast

Prior

Mon, Feb 11

--

No Significant Data Scheduled

--

--

--

--

Tue, Feb 12

13:00

3-Yr Note Auction

--

bl

32.0

--

14:00

Federal budget, $

Jan

bl

-21.00

-0.26

Wed, Feb 13

07:00

Mortgage market index

w/e

--

--

849.8

08:30

Import/Export Prices

Jan

%

0.7

-0.1

08:30

Retail Sales

Jan

%

0.1

0.5

10:00

Business Inventories

Dec

%

0.3

0.3

13:00

10yr Note Auction

--

bl

24.0

--

Thu, Feb 14

08:30

Initial Jobless Claims

w/e

k

360

366

13:00

30-Yr Treasury Auction

--

bl

16.0

--

Fri, Feb 15

08:30

NY Fed manufacturing

Feb

--

-2.50

-7.78

09:15

Industrial Production

Jan

%

0.2

0.3

09:15

Capacity utilization mm

Jan

%

78.9

78.8

09:55

Consumer Sentiment

Feb

--

74.2

73.8

* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in "period" column indicates a weekly report

* Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary Release | Fin: Final Release

* (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted

* PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index"




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