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MBS Into The Green As Markets Slowly Shed Risk
Posted to: Micro News
Monday, February 11, 2013 10:44 AM
Things have been painfully slow so far this morning with no scheduled data, and no juicy headline market movers. Combine this with Asia thinner overnight participation (Asia out on holiday) and the session has simply been a moderate risk-on move during European hours followed by a moderate risk-off move in domestic hours.
the latter has seen 10yr yields fall back in line with Friday afternoon lows, but we have yet to break through those, let alone to test Friday morning's 1.937's (currently 1.9554). S&P's have come off their Friday afternoon range, by a paltry "point or two." It's all very "incidental" and "inconsequential" as far as how the relative movement looks on screens.
MBS are looking better by comparison, largely because they were so much worse by comparison at the end of last week. Thursday and Friday's underperformance set up Fannie 3.0s for a modest dose of outperformance since the open. Whereas 10yr Treasuries are 2 ticks lower in price (0.5 bps higher in yield) since Friday afternoon, MBS are 3 ticks higher.
If the risk-off trends continue through the 11am completion of the scheduled Fed Treasury purchases, positive reprice risk would begin increasing at 103-05 for the "early crowd" lenders. This is a stretch right now though. Given the quietness of the day, those 11:02am Fed results could have a perceptible impact in either direction.
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