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After Opening Weaker, Bond Markets Turn Green
Posted to: Micro News
Thursday, February 7, 2013 10:20 AM

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The overnight session saw a modest amount of the 'same old' back and forth movement between risk-on and risk-off that has driven markets in their tight ranges so far this week. This time around, it was Spanish and French debt auctions helping reign in peripheral spreads (though we'd note that France is not as "peripheral" as Spain, but it helped the move). Slightly stronger than expected Industrial production in Germany didn't get in the way of the moderate weakness in core debt markets.

To a lesser, but unknown extent, some of the overnight weakness in bond markets (and strength in stock markets) could be due to front-running a positive outcome of the ECB Announcement and Draghi Press Conference. These were relative duds, however, and as markets generally held off on any major reaction to domestic economic data in favor of waiting for Draghi to say something informative.

If anything, Draghi's tilt was bearish, and gave markets reason to expect lighter LTRO repayments going forward. Bond markets have progressively improved since the press conference and the weaker equities open has given us the biggest boost of the morning.

S&P's are down roughly 7 points from their overnight highs, but remain inside their 2 day range. Treasuries, on the other hand, are currently testing a break below their two day range, moving to levels not seen since the post NFP swings on 2/1.

10's are currently down a bp and a half at 1.9496 and MBS are 3 ticks in the green at 103-18. Lenders who priced at 9:30am may soon have to consider positive reprices if current gains hold or are improved upon.

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