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Legitimate Post NFP Rally Threat? Support Holding For Now
Posted to: Micro News
Friday, February 1, 2013 10:35 AM
Post ISM data, and possibly with a slight ear bent toward Bullard comments from around the same time, bond markets have given back some of the post-NFP rally. At the moment, this amounts to exactly HALF of today's gains in MBS, but we've been fighting off further weakness since 10:15am.
In terms of Fannie 3.0s, that puts the bounce in at 103-16 (super salient pivot point!) with current prices back up to 103-18. In terms of 10yr yields, the support has come in at 1.87 (SUPER salient pivot point!!!) with yields back down toe 1.96 now. The stock lever has been helpful.
Holding on the friendly side of these pivot points is very good, and if that's as weak as we get, it's a pretty acceptable and explainable amount of volatility in the context of a broader positive move following NFP. If we cross back over these pivots, however, things become a bit cloudier, and a bit less positive for the rest of the day. For now, it looks like the big volume and big support is already in place at the 1.97 pivot, and unless we cross back above, the takeaway from this morning continues to be positive.
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