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Bond Markets Volatile And Mostly Stronger Following NFP
Posted to: Micro News
Friday, February 01, 2013 9:35 AM
Treasuries traded in slightly weaker territory overnight but in a fairly narrow range. NFP anticipation had clearly kept bond markets disinterested in any big deviations from the post-FOMC path, save for a slow, incremental leak to marginally higher yields.
As many had surmised, bond markets seem to have been accounting for a more damaging number than the forecast when it came to NFP. Even with the positive past revisions, the 'as-expected' headline job creation has, thus far, paved the way for a fairly easy move toward better levels.
There has been a good amount of volatility in getting to where we are now, but considering the recent dynamics between tactical (shorter term, leveraged, "fast money") and strategic (longer time horizons, unleveraged, "real money") accounts, this volatility was not only to be expected, but has also played out in a fairly scripted manner. Those "fast money" accounts got into, out of, and back into the rally, all the while with underlying support from "real money."
The result has been the expected, "slippery surface" back towards 1.92 (10yr yields) that we expected on an average NFP print. Fannie 3.0's have easily broken 103-16 resistance and are currently up 14 ticks at 103-22.
All in all, this morning has been like opening a new can of tennis balls. Pop! Pressure being released. And they're green!
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