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ECON: Q4 Advance GDP Falls 0.1 Percent, Much Weaker Than Expected
Posted to: Micro News
Wednesday, January 30, 2013 8:49 AM

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- GDP -0.1 pct vs +1.1 Consensus
- Deflator +0.6 vs +1.5 Consensus
- PCE Price Index +1.2 vs +1.7 Consensus
- Exports -5.7, first drop since Q109
- Business Inventory changes account for 1.27 of drop
- Headline GDP, first decline since Q209

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 4 and the "Comparisons of Revisions to GDP" on page 5). The "second" estimate for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on February 28, 2013.

The decrease in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from private inventory investment, federal government spending, and exports that were partly offset by positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.




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