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Mortgage News Daily

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ECON: Tamer Than Expected Inflation At Consumer Level
Posted to: Micro News
Wednesday, January 16, 2013 8:40 AM

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- Headline CPI declined 0.0199 vs 0.0 consensus
- Core CPI (excludes food/energy) +0.1 vs +0.2 consensus
- Quick thoughts: Inflation data continues to sit near the back of the room full of economic indicators, never raising its hand. This has been the case for several years, and most notably since the initial QE2 fears worked their way out of markets in late 2010, early 2011 (themselves not nearly as developed as the early 2009 inflation panic). Markets don't trade this report and despite bond market strength in the past 8 minutes, they're not trading it today either. It won't always be this way, but until further notice, PPI and CPI are relics of a bygone era. Again, this could quickly change if they move to the front of the class and start acting up.

From the BLS:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The gasoline index declined again in December, but other indexes, notably food and shelter, increased, resulting in the seasonally adjusted all items index being unchanged. Gasoline was the only major energy index to decline; the indexes for natural gas and electricity both increased. Within the food category, five of the six major grocery store food groups increased as the food at home index rose for the third consecutive month.

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in December, the same increase as in November. Besides shelter, the indexes for airline fares, tobacco, and medical care also increased. The indexes for recreation, household furnishings and operations, and used cars and trucks all declined in December.

The all items index increased 1.7 percent over the last 12 months, compared to a 1.8 percent figure in November. The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.9 percent over the last 12 months, the same figure as last month. The food index has risen 1.8 percent over the last 12 months, and the energy index has risen 0.5 percent.




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