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ECON: Empire State Survey In Negative Territory For 6th Straight Month
Posted to:
Micro News
Tuesday, January 15, 2013 8:55 AM
- Empire State Index -7.78 vs +0.00 Consensus
- Employment -4.3 vs -9.68 in Dec
- New Orders -7.18 vs -3.44 in Dec
- Prices Paid 22.58 vs 16.13 in Jan
- Economists initially expected a slightly higher than breakeven reading on this one (+0.2), but the consensus recently came down to +0.00. Either of those figures would have ended a 5 month stint in negative territory, so today's additional ugly reading of -7.78 with no marked revision to last month's crappy numbers is sufficiently bearish enough to help the case against reading much economic positivity into the slightly stronger Retail Sales numbers. A supporting actor, to be sure, but helpful.
The January 2013 Empire State
Manufacturing Survey indicates
that conditions for New York
manufacturers continued to decline
at a modest pace. The general
business conditions index was
negative for a sixth consecutive
month and, at -7.8, was little
changed from its recent readings.
The new orders index fell four
points to -7.2, and the shipments
index declined a full fi fteen points
to -3.1. Price increases picked up,
with the prices paid index rising
six points to 22.6 and the prices
received index rising ten points to
10.8, the highest readings for both
of these indexes in several months.
Labor market conditions remained
weak, with the indexes for both
the number of employees and the
average workweek remaining below
zero for a fourth month in a row.
The level of optimism about the
six-month outlook rose somewhat
from December, but remained
low compared with levels in early
2012. Signifi cantly, the capital
expenditures index fell to 4.3, its
lowest reading since 2009.
In a series of supplementary
questions, manufacturers were asked
about anticipated changes in their
workforce and the factors underlying
these changes. Twenty-seven percent
of survey respondents indicated
that they expected the total number
of workers at their fi rm to increase
over the next twelve months, while
19 percent predicted declines in
their workforce—a considerably
less positive balance than in last
January’s survey. Among fi rms
planning to boost employment, high
expected sales growth was widely
reported to be the most important
impetus to hiring; conversely, low
expected sales growth was most
widely cited as the primary restraint
on hiring. Sales growth was also
seen as the primary factor behind
employment increases and decreases
in the 2012 survey.
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ECON: Empire State Survey In Negative Territory For 6th Straight Month
Posted to:
Micro News
Tuesday, January 15, 2013 8:55 AM
- Empire State Index -7.78 vs +0.00 Consensus
- Employment -4.3 vs -9.68 in Dec
- New Orders -7.18 vs -3.44 in Dec
- Prices Paid 22.58 vs 16.13 in Jan
- Economists initially expected a slightly higher than breakeven reading on this one (+0.2), but the consensus recently came down to +0.00. Either of those figures would have ended a 5 month stint in negative territory, so today's additional ugly reading of -7.78 with no marked revision to last month's crappy numbers is sufficiently bearish enough to help the case against reading much economic positivity into the slightly stronger Retail Sales numbers. A supporting actor, to be sure, but helpful.
The January 2013 Empire State
Manufacturing Survey indicates
that conditions for New York
manufacturers continued to decline
at a modest pace. The general
business conditions index was
negative for a sixth consecutive
month and, at -7.8, was little
changed from its recent readings.
The new orders index fell four
points to -7.2, and the shipments
index declined a full fi fteen points
to -3.1. Price increases picked up,
with the prices paid index rising
six points to 22.6 and the prices
received index rising ten points to
10.8, the highest readings for both
of these indexes in several months.
Labor market conditions remained
weak, with the indexes for both
the number of employees and the
average workweek remaining below
zero for a fourth month in a row.
The level of optimism about the
six-month outlook rose somewhat
from December, but remained
low compared with levels in early
2012. Signifi cantly, the capital
expenditures index fell to 4.3, its
lowest reading since 2009.
In a series of supplementary
questions, manufacturers were asked
about anticipated changes in their
workforce and the factors underlying
these changes. Twenty-seven percent
of survey respondents indicated
that they expected the total number
of workers at their fi rm to increase
over the next twelve months, while
19 percent predicted declines in
their workforce—a considerably
less positive balance than in last
January’s survey. Among fi rms
planning to boost employment, high
expected sales growth was widely
reported to be the most important
impetus to hiring; conversely, low
expected sales growth was most
widely cited as the primary restraint
on hiring. Sales growth was also
seen as the primary factor behind
employment increases and decreases
in the 2012 survey.
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