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The Day Ahead: Markets Respond to 11th Hour Fiscal Cliff Deal
A few hours before the first business day of 2013, the House approved a bill to avert the Fiscal Cliff. Although some last minute effort was mustered by House Republicans to include another $330 billion in spending cuts, the Senate was rumored to have preemptively refused to take up any bill amended by the House. The Senate's original version passed the House 257 to 167, and although it's clearly not the "grand bargain" that it might have been, it is "something," and markets will spend most of today sorting through their reaction to the 157 pages of legislation.
A few of the vital details that we think we know:
- Top tax rate rises to 39.6 from 35 percent for couples over $450k and individuals over $400k
- Automatic spending cuts delayed by two months
- Capital gains tax rising to 20% plus 3.8% that was already slated and independent of the Cliff, for a total of 23.8%
- Clinton-era limits on personal exemptionss and itemized deductions would be restored
- Payroll Tax Cut allowed to expire, effectively raising taxes on nearly 80% of households (cue the Price is Right tuba/trombone music, or press the orange button)
More details from Reuters HERE.
Domestic economic data starts churning again this morning as well, though it's hard to say if it will make much of a dent in light of the Fiscal Cliff deal. The would-be early morning focal point, ADP's Employment Report is rescheduled for Thursday, leaving manufacturing data in focus. Markit PMI leads off at 8:58am, followed by ISM Manufacturing at 10am along with Construction Spending. The Fed releases Minutes from the most recent policy meeting at 2pm.
|
MBS
Live Econ Calendar:
|
|
Week Of Mon, Dec 31 2012 - Fri, Jan 4 2013
|
|
Time
|
Event
|
Period
|
Unit
|
Forecast
|
Prior
|
|
Mon, Dec 31
|
|
--
|
No Significant Economic Data (Early Close - 2pm)
|
--
|
--
|
--
|
--
|
|
Tue, Jan 1
|
|
--
|
Markets Closed For New Years Day
|
--
|
--
|
--
|
--
|
|
Wed, Jan 2
|
|
08:58
|
Markit Manufacturing
PMI
|
Dec
|
--
|
--
|
54.2
|
|
10:00
|
ISM Manufacturing
PMI
|
Dec
|
--
|
50.2
|
49.5
|
|
10:00
|
Construction
spending
|
Nov
|
%
|
0.6
|
1.4
|
|
Thu, Jan 3
|
|
07:30
|
Challenger layoffs
|
Dec
|
k
|
--
|
57.081
|
|
08:15
|
ADP Private Payrolls
|
Dec
|
k
|
130
|
118
|
|
08:30
|
Initial Jobless
Claims
|
w/e
|
k
|
350
|
363
|
|
Fri, Jan 4
|
|
08:30
|
Non-Farm Payrolls
|
Dec
|
k
|
145
|
146
|
|
08:30
|
Unemployment Rate
|
Dec
|
pct
|
7.8
|
7.7
|
|
10:00
|
Factory Orders
|
Nov
|
pct |
+0.4
|
+0.8
|
|
10:00
|
ISM Non Manufacturing
|
Dec
|
--
|
54.3
|
54.7
|
|
* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in
"period" column indicates a weekly report
* Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary
Release | Fin: Final Release
* (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted
* PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index"
|
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YOUR MESSAGE HERE
The Day Ahead: Markets Respond to 11th Hour Fiscal Cliff Deal
A few hours before the first business day of 2013, the House approved a bill to avert the Fiscal Cliff. Although some last minute effort was mustered by House Republicans to include another $330 billion in spending cuts, the Senate was rumored to have preemptively refused to take up any bill amended by the House. The Senate's original version passed the House 257 to 167, and although it's clearly not the "grand bargain" that it might have been, it is "something," and markets will spend most of today sorting through their reaction to the 157 pages of legislation.
A few of the vital details that we think we know:
- Top tax rate rises to 39.6 from 35 percent for couples over $450k and individuals over $400k
- Automatic spending cuts delayed by two months
- Capital gains tax rising to 20% plus 3.8% that was already slated and independent of the Cliff, for a total of 23.8%
- Clinton-era limits on personal exemptionss and itemized deductions would be restored
- Payroll Tax Cut allowed to expire, effectively raising taxes on nearly 80% of households (cue the Price is Right tuba/trombone music, or press the orange button)
More details from Reuters HERE.
Domestic economic data starts churning again this morning as well, though it's hard to say if it will make much of a dent in light of the Fiscal Cliff deal. The would-be early morning focal point, ADP's Employment Report is rescheduled for Thursday, leaving manufacturing data in focus. Markit PMI leads off at 8:58am, followed by ISM Manufacturing at 10am along with Construction Spending. The Fed releases Minutes from the most recent policy meeting at 2pm.
|
MBS
Live Econ Calendar:
|
|
Week Of Mon, Dec 31 2012 - Fri, Jan 4 2013
|
|
Time
|
Event
|
Period
|
Unit
|
Forecast
|
Prior
|
|
Mon, Dec 31
|
|
--
|
No Significant Economic Data (Early Close - 2pm)
|
--
|
--
|
--
|
--
|
|
Tue, Jan 1
|
|
--
|
Markets Closed For New Years Day
|
--
|
--
|
--
|
--
|
|
Wed, Jan 2
|
|
08:58
|
Markit Manufacturing
PMI
|
Dec
|
--
|
--
|
54.2
|
|
10:00
|
ISM Manufacturing
PMI
|
Dec
|
--
|
50.2
|
49.5
|
|
10:00
|
Construction
spending
|
Nov
|
%
|
0.6
|
1.4
|
|
Thu, Jan 3
|
|
07:30
|
Challenger layoffs
|
Dec
|
k
|
--
|
57.081
|
|
08:15
|
ADP Private Payrolls
|
Dec
|
k
|
130
|
118
|
|
08:30
|
Initial Jobless
Claims
|
w/e
|
k
|
350
|
363
|
|
Fri, Jan 4
|
|
08:30
|
Non-Farm Payrolls
|
Dec
|
k
|
145
|
146
|
|
08:30
|
Unemployment Rate
|
Dec
|
pct
|
7.8
|
7.7
|
|
10:00
|
Factory Orders
|
Nov
|
pct |
+0.4
|
+0.8
|
|
10:00
|
ISM Non Manufacturing
|
Dec
|
--
|
54.3
|
54.7
|
|
* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in
"period" column indicates a weekly report
* Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary
Release | Fin: Final Release
* (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted
* PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index"
|
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