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MBS Surge To Best Levels After Data, But Not Because Of It
Posted to: Micro News
Thursday, December 27, 2012 10:39 AM
Sneaky Fiscal Cliff headlines... coincidentally popping up within 1 minute of the 10am economic data. While the Consumer Confidence numbers were substantially weaker-than-expected, they weren't the culprit of the biggest surge in volume and volatility since last Friday. That honor was already reserved for the first Fiscal Cliff headline of the week.
In today's case, it's Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid saying that going over the Fiscal Cliff "Looks like where we're headed." Doesn't sound like much, perhaps, but it's the "first impression" for the last few days of Fiscal Cliff deal-making potential. Whether or not it's posturing or honest sentiment, we can't be sure, but it has certainly turned markets into a stirring creature for the first time this week.
Fannie 3.0s are up 6 ticks since the news, also up 6 ticks on the day at 104-28. 10yr yields dropped from 1.755 to 1.722 in short order and S&P's are off a quick 8-9 points.
For most lenders, this is too early in the day for a positive reprice, not to mention too emotional a move. There's an outside possibility for positive reprices among lenders who priced before 10am IF current gains demonstrate firm staying power. Still too early to assume that will be the case. The more important point is this: we have our first market-moving headline of the week and negative reprice risk is non-existent at the moment.
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