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Bond Markets Looking For Guidance, Finding Some From Equities
Posted to: Micro News
Tuesday, December 04, 2012 10:04 AM
Even before the day began, it stood out as a barren wasteland in terms of scheduled data and potential market movers. So far that has clearly turned out to be the case with nary a salient market mover in sight.
On days like this, if big trades don't get snowball selling/buying rolling in either direction, bond markets can either turn to the technical landscape (trading based on price patterns rather than news/data) or get risk-on/risk-off guidance from stocks. Both of these "backup motivators" seem to be in play this morning with Treasuries continuing a pattern of consolidation between late November highs and lows.
As far as being tuned into stock markets, we'd simply note that both stock prices and Treasury yields hit their lows of the morning at 9:15 and that Treasury yields moved higher with stock prices after the 9:30am "cash" open. MBS were doing their own version of "follow the leader," essentially mirroring and matching Treasuries.
As such, there was a barely detectable bit of weakness for MBS just after 9:30am, but it didn't gain any momentum. MBS firmed up and Treasury yields returned lower after stocks met some overhead resistance following their gains out of the gate. We might continue to watch for ongoing correlations between equities and bond markets, as well as keep an eye on technical trading levels.
In general, guidance givers continue to be in short supply until/unless we get a big, unexpected piece of news. So far so good in that regard. Fannie 3.0s are currently up 2 ticks on the day at 105-10 while 10yr yields are just under 1bp lower at 1.6130.
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