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Mortgage News Daily combines the expertise of some of the housing industry's leading minds with the power of social media to offer an always lively, constantly evolving web community. MND communicates breaking news, streams video, and provides expert opinion and commentary to a community of interested market professionals and curious consumers.The Day Ahead: ADP Employment Report, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, Treasury Auction Terms
Posted to:
MND NewsWire
Wednesday, February 03, 2010 7:50 AM
Equity futures are mixed after a steady incline yesterday pushed the Dow and S&P 500 up 1.09% and 1.30%, respectively.
90 minutes before the opening bell, the Dow looks to open 3 points higher at 10,227 while futures on the S&P 500 are down 0.20 points to 1,097.00.
Commodities are higher with Crude oil up 18 cents to $77.41 per barrel and Gold up $0.60 to $1,118.60.
With equities and commodities on the rise, the US dollar has weakened overnight. Meantime, the euro is modestly higher, trading just below $1.40.
Key Events Today:
8:15 ― The ADP Private Employment Survey should be an important look-ahead at what kind of results should be expected in Friday’s official government report. Last month the report posted a loss of 84,000 private jobs, the smallest number March 2008. This month the number should be lower but the consensus is still looking for a subtraction of 40k jobs. Even if that’s accurate, the official BLS numbers on Friday could show overall growth because unlike ADP they include growth in the public sector.
“Our forecast for a decline of 40k in private nonfarm employment implies a decline of about 90k in ADP payrolls,” wrote analysts at Nomura Global Economics, who are more pessimistic than the consensus. “The ADP measure of job growth has underestimated the BLS count by an average of 84k per month over the last six months.”
10:00 ― The ISM Non-Manufacturing index, which covers services, construction, and finance, has been less impressive than its cousin manufacturing index. To start the new decade the index is anticipated to see a 51.0 score, just one point above the breaking point for growth. In December the index rose 1.4 points to 50.1.
Economists at BBVA imply that like the ADP survey, this release could have an impact on predictions for the month’s employment report.
“While the goods producing industry is leading the recovery in output, the services sector is leading that of employment. An increase in activity could indicate further improvement in the employment situation,” they said.
Economists from BMO added: “the headline index is expected to barely hurdle the 50 bar, suggesting continued softness in demand. This means we won’t see another 5%-handle on real GDP growth in the current quarter (more like 3%) unless inventory investment ramps up again.”
9:00 ― Treasury Refunding Announcement READ MORE
11:00 ― Treasury announce terms of 3 year note, 10 year note, and 30 year note auctions next week
1:00 ― Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh delivers a speech on regulatory reform to the New York Association for Business Economics.
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The Day Ahead: ADP Employment Report, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, Treasury Auction Terms
Posted to:
MND NewsWire
Wednesday, February 03, 2010 7:50 AM
Equity futures are mixed after a steady incline yesterday pushed the Dow and S&P 500 up 1.09% and 1.30%, respectively.
90 minutes before the opening bell, the Dow looks to open 3 points higher at 10,227 while futures on the S&P 500 are down 0.20 points to 1,097.00.
Commodities are higher with Crude oil up 18 cents to $77.41 per barrel and Gold up $0.60 to $1,118.60.
With equities and commodities on the rise, the US dollar has weakened overnight. Meantime, the euro is modestly higher, trading just below $1.40.
Key Events Today:
8:15 ― The ADP Private Employment Survey should be an important look-ahead at what kind of results should be expected in Friday’s official government report. Last month the report posted a loss of 84,000 private jobs, the smallest number March 2008. This month the number should be lower but the consensus is still looking for a subtraction of 40k jobs. Even if that’s accurate, the official BLS numbers on Friday could show overall growth because unlike ADP they include growth in the public sector.
“Our forecast for a decline of 40k in private nonfarm employment implies a decline of about 90k in ADP payrolls,” wrote analysts at Nomura Global Economics, who are more pessimistic than the consensus. “The ADP measure of job growth has underestimated the BLS count by an average of 84k per month over the last six months.”
10:00 ― The ISM Non-Manufacturing index, which covers services, construction, and finance, has been less impressive than its cousin manufacturing index. To start the new decade the index is anticipated to see a 51.0 score, just one point above the breaking point for growth. In December the index rose 1.4 points to 50.1.
Economists at BBVA imply that like the ADP survey, this release could have an impact on predictions for the month’s employment report.
“While the goods producing industry is leading the recovery in output, the services sector is leading that of employment. An increase in activity could indicate further improvement in the employment situation,” they said.
Economists from BMO added: “the headline index is expected to barely hurdle the 50 bar, suggesting continued softness in demand. This means we won’t see another 5%-handle on real GDP growth in the current quarter (more like 3%) unless inventory investment ramps up again.”
9:00 ― Treasury Refunding Announcement READ MORE
11:00 ― Treasury announce terms of 3 year note, 10 year note, and 30 year note auctions next week
1:00 ― Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh delivers a speech on regulatory reform to the New York Association for Business Economics.
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