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Mortgage News Daily combines the expertise of some of the housing industry's leading minds with the power of social media to offer an always lively, constantly evolving web community. MND communicates breaking news, streams video, and provides expert opinion and commentary to a community of interested market professionals and curious consumers.MBS CLOSE: Late Day Lift For MBS But Treasuries Don't Lie
OK, so no one is really lying. It's just that MBS did not, in fact, adhere to their more narrow short-term range today. At least not as far as the prices themselves are concerned. But by the time the effects of volume, flows, and the clock are considered, it's a different story. In other words, as per usual, volume tapered off after mid-day and the buoyancy is in part a function of those thin conditions (because fewer trades comprise a bigger percentage of the activity, thus exerting inordinate forces on price). Factor that in with sellers having gotten their fill early and often, and there's not much for the indicated price to do, but move up. The reality of the pre-NFP range is much more realistically represented in the 10yr chart:
[Image or graph removed from email. View full article with images]
The 10yr approached that inflectional area just over 3.63 several times, and it seems to say something about the next few days that it didn't mount any sort of breakout. What was already a fairly narrow range in the grand scheme has only become more narrow so far this week. But it should also count for something that bonds were fighting off a stock rally today. Even though the stock lever was disconnected, a stock rally is harsher environment for bond gains than a stock sell-off, generally speaking. Stocks for their own part, didn't see fit to test any upside limits of their range, although it is important that they have now moved squarely back into the late 2009 range trade boundaries.
[Image or graph removed from email. View full article with images]
With this rally not threatening to move on up to their deluxe apartment in the 1115 range, and with the already limited econ data on the day, bonds were left without much direction, and thus were content to grind a bit higher (lower yield) in uninspired volume (about 2/3rds of the average).
The theme is, was, and will be "it's a range until it's not. And while it's true that rate sheets have infinitely more to do with MBS than tsy's, we'd rather turn to the latter as the better of the two indicators when it comes to deciding when that range fails or is being tested. Think of MBS and other spread products as the passengers on a train. And think of treasuries as the train. And think of the landscape and train tracks as the "course" that treasuries will be traveling. Passengers can get up, move around, climb on top of the train, or even go mission impossible underneath the train. So even though their exact location in space varies from that of the train, they pretty much have to go where it goes. In other words, MBS were filming some sort of dramatic fight scene on top of the train today, but as far as the train itself: no surprises, even if not "full steam ahead."
All that to say, treasuries are the benchmark around which other fixed income securities trade. As such, it usually makes more sense to look there when we're waiting for guidance on the next move.
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MBS CLOSE: Late Day Lift For MBS But Treasuries Don't Lie
OK, so no one is really lying. It's just that MBS did not, in fact, adhere to their more narrow short-term range today. At least not as far as the prices themselves are concerned. But by the time the effects of volume, flows, and the clock are considered, it's a different story. In other words, as per usual, volume tapered off after mid-day and the buoyancy is in part a function of those thin conditions (because fewer trades comprise a bigger percentage of the activity, thus exerting inordinate forces on price). Factor that in with sellers having gotten their fill early and often, and there's not much for the indicated price to do, but move up. The reality of the pre-NFP range is much more realistically represented in the 10yr chart:
The 10yr approached that inflectional area just over 3.63 several times, and it seems to say something about the next few days that it didn't mount any sort of breakout. What was already a fairly narrow range in the grand scheme has only become more narrow so far this week. But it should also count for something that bonds were fighting off a stock rally today. Even though the stock lever was disconnected, a stock rally is harsher environment for bond gains than a stock sell-off, generally speaking. Stocks for their own part, didn't see fit to test any upside limits of their range, although it is important that they have now moved squarely back into the late 2009 range trade boundaries.
With this rally not threatening to move on up to their deluxe apartment in the 1115 range, and with the already limited econ data on the day, bonds were left without much direction, and thus were content to grind a bit higher (lower yield) in uninspired volume (about 2/3rds of the average).
The theme is, was, and will be "it's a range until it's not. And while it's true that rate sheets have infinitely more to do with MBS than tsy's, we'd rather turn to the latter as the better of the two indicators when it comes to deciding when that range fails or is being tested. Think of MBS and other spread products as the passengers on a train. And think of treasuries as the train. And think of the landscape and train tracks as the "course" that treasuries will be traveling. Passengers can get up, move around, climb on top of the train, or even go mission impossible underneath the train. So even though their exact location in space varies from that of the train, they pretty much have to go where it goes. In other words, MBS were filming some sort of dramatic fight scene on top of the train today, but as far as the train itself: no surprises, even if not "full steam ahead."
All that to say, treasuries are the benchmark around which other fixed income securities trade. As such, it usually makes more sense to look there when we're waiting for guidance on the next move.
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