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Mortgage News Daily combines the expertise of some of the housing industry's leading minds with the power of social media to offer an always lively, constantly evolving web community. MND communicates breaking news, streams video, and provides expert opinion and commentary to a community of interested market professionals and curious consumers.MBS CLOSE: December Erases 100% Of November's Gains In 2 Weeks
'Twas the day before December, amidst stormier skies
And Traders pushed MBS beyond all time highs
The 10yr was hung at 3.20 with care
In the hopes yields still lower soon would be there.
Positions were nestled all snug in their range
While cash needs for year-end struck no one as strange.
And Ben at his lecturn and us on our blog
Had just buckled in for the slow Winter slog
When out of the curve, there arose such a steepness
We sprang to our keyboards to explain all this weakness
Away from the highs, prices flew in red flashes
The hull of the float boat lay in smoldering ashes
The mic nestled close to spokesmen for Dubai
Gave pause to the recent testing of highs
When what to bond bullishness should appear?
A not-so-miniature sell-off to close out the year
And a little old driver with whom we'd been messing
We knew in a moment: Year End Window Dressing!
[Image or graph removed from email. View full article with images]
In exactly two weeks of trading, MBS have moved from all time highs on November 30th to 101-08 at close today, the same levels from the beginning of November. Similarly, the 10yr tsy hasn't been at these yields for over a month, effectively erasing gains in two weeks that had seen yields hit 3.20.
3.56, our "outer limit" range boundary over the past 4 months, thankfully held up today with trades all but grinding to a half with yields currently at 3.548. The need among the mega firms to bolster balance sheets with "cash-like" investments continues to favor the short end of the curve, keeping 2's v 10's spreads at "crying-out-in-pain" levels near 275 bps --- all time wides. The implicit short end of that stick goes to the longer end of the curve and the lower end of the MBS stack which influences rate sheets.
You may not have to endure 12 days of beatings, however, as the trading month UNOFFICIALLY ends next week with the progressively thinning populations at trading desks due to the approaching holiday season. But next week is not merely one of those "coast across the finish line" sorta deals... We get 2 day FOMC and the Wednesday announcement. Putting 2 and 2 and 2 together, if the short end of the curve is highly sensitive to fed policy, and the short end is half the equation of the yield curve, and the yield curve is stretched to the max, and the long end of the curve speaks to mortgages rates..... <deep breath> anything pushing short end rates higher might not come hand in hand with enough yield curve flattening for 10's not to move higher as well.
So bright and early Monday morning, we'll be discussing eventualities both of a welcome correction to today's weakness, as well as even further exploration of today's unpleasant closing levels. 'Tis the season!
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Message:
YOUR MESSAGE HERE
MBS CLOSE: December Erases 100% Of November's Gains In 2 Weeks
'Twas the day before December, amidst stormier skies
And Traders pushed MBS beyond all time highs
The 10yr was hung at 3.20 with care
In the hopes yields still lower soon would be there.
Positions were nestled all snug in their range
While cash needs for year-end struck no one as strange.
And Ben at his lecturn and us on our blog
Had just buckled in for the slow Winter slog
When out of the curve, there arose such a steepness
We sprang to our keyboards to explain all this weakness
Away from the highs, prices flew in red flashes
The hull of the float boat lay in smoldering ashes
The mic nestled close to spokesmen for Dubai
Gave pause to the recent testing of highs
When what to bond bullishness should appear?
A not-so-miniature sell-off to close out the year
And a little old driver with whom we'd been messing
We knew in a moment: Year End Window Dressing!
In exactly two weeks of trading, MBS have moved from all time highs on November 30th to 101-08 at close today, the same levels from the beginning of November. Similarly, the 10yr tsy hasn't been at these yields for over a month, effectively erasing gains in two weeks that had seen yields hit 3.20.
3.56, our "outer limit" range boundary over the past 4 months, thankfully held up today with trades all but grinding to a half with yields currently at 3.548. The need among the mega firms to bolster balance sheets with "cash-like" investments continues to favor the short end of the curve, keeping 2's v 10's spreads at "crying-out-in-pain" levels near 275 bps --- all time wides. The implicit short end of that stick goes to the longer end of the curve and the lower end of the MBS stack which influences rate sheets.
You may not have to endure 12 days of beatings, however, as the trading month UNOFFICIALLY ends next week with the progressively thinning populations at trading desks due to the approaching holiday season. But next week is not merely one of those "coast across the finish line" sorta deals... We get 2 day FOMC and the Wednesday announcement. Putting 2 and 2 and 2 together, if the short end of the curve is highly sensitive to fed policy, and the short end is half the equation of the yield curve, and the yield curve is stretched to the max, and the long end of the curve speaks to mortgages rates..... <deep breath> anything pushing short end rates higher might not come hand in hand with enough yield curve flattening for 10's not to move higher as well.
So bright and early Monday morning, we'll be discussing eventualities both of a welcome correction to today's weakness, as well as even further exploration of today's unpleasant closing levels. 'Tis the season!
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