Here are the vital components of the 10yr refunding auction results

  • 25 bln was record amount
  • high yield at 3.470 (on the screws)
  • 82.49 % of bids taken at high yield
  • Bid to Cover of 2.81 - better than last 10yr auction
  • Primary dealers and indirect bid more or less split the pie with 11.94 and 11.73 bln respectively

Since the auction the 10yr note has not moved any higher than 3.475.  Conversely it has not moved lower than 3.465.

If you had to divine a guess at directionality based on what's happened so far, yields look more predisposed to go higher than lower.  That would suggest locking at this point for deals on the fence.

But volatility is the rule, not the exception following auctions, so this is no guarantee we won't bounce off support around 3.48+ before moving lower in yield on the day.  Nonetheless, I'd expect some of the more "livin' on the edge" lenders to reprice for the worse.