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  • Wed, Feb 22 2017
  • 8:14 AM » Why Trump's Immigration Crackdown Could Sink US Home Prices
    Published Wed, Feb 22 2017 8:14 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Why Trump's Immigration Crackdown Could Sink US Home Prices Bloomberg In San Francisco, an Indian software engineer on a work permit canceled plans to bid on a $900,000 home. In Washington, a Brazilian nonprofit executive passed on a fixer-upper near her office. And, in Mesa, Arizona, a 24-year-old son of undocumented ... and more »
  • Tue, Feb 21 2017
  • 4:14 PM » Fed's Williams Says Historically Low Interest Rates Will Persist
    Published Tue, Feb 21 2017 4:14 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Fed's Williams Says Historically Low Interest Rates Will Persist Bloomberg Historically low interest rates are here to stay, making it much harder for central banks in wealthy countries to prevent and limit recessions in the future, according San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams. Writing in the bank's ... and more »
  • 4:13 PM » Supply of affordable housing expected to shrink
    Published Tue, Feb 21 2017 4:13 PM by CNBC
    Buyers with lower household incomes can expect heavy competition for the listings they can afford, NBC News reports.
  • 4:12 PM » March, May or June? Fed minutes may hold clues on timing of next interest-rate hike
    Published Tue, Feb 21 2017 4:12 PM by Market Watch
    Fed watchers disagreed whether Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen was signaling a March rate hike or one in May or June. They are hoping the minutes hold the answer.
  • 2:06 PM » Yellen Follows Predecessors in Chasing Fed's Dual Mandate: Chart
    Published Tue, Feb 21 2017 2:06 PM by Bloomberg
    Yellen Follows Predecessors in Chasing Fed's Dual Mandate: Chart Bloomberg As investors await the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's policy-setting meeting Jan. 31-Feb. 1, the objective for Chair Janet Yellen remains a balancing act: foster economic conditions that achieve the dual mandate of stable prices and ... and more »
  • 1:04 PM » U.S. court upholds dismissal of hedge funds' Freddie and Fannie claims
    Published Tue, Feb 21 2017 1:04 PM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - A U.S. appeals court on Tuesday upheld a dismissal of hedge funds' claims against the U.S. government for seizing the profits of mortgage financiers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac following their taxpayer bailout.
  • 1:04 PM » Peak Renter
    Published Tue, Feb 21 2017 1:04 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    It was six years ago that we started discussing the turnaround for apartments. Then, in January 2011, I attended the NMHC Apartment Strategies Conference in Palm Springs, and the atmosphere was very positive . The drivers were 1) very low new supply, and 2) strong demand (favorable demographics, and people moving from owning to renting). Demographics are now somewhat less favorable, and the move "from owning to renting" is mostly over.   Multi-family construction peaked in June 2015 (as I noted at the time), however more supply than demand has still been coming online. Note: The NMHC market tightness apartment survey has been indicating looser conditions for five consecutive quarters. Today, from Laura Kusisto at the WSJ: Banks Retreat From Apartment Market Swelling supplies of apartment units are prompting big banks to pull back from new projects, forcing developers to scramble for capital, in a sign that the U.S. apartment industry headed for a downturn. ... fresh supply is beginning to overwhelm demand. More than 378,000 new apartments are expected to be completed in 2017, a 30-year high, according to real estate researcher Axiometrics Inc. I expect the vacancy rate to increase and for rent increases to slow.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:04 PM » 2016 Custom Home Building Market Growth
    Published Tue, Feb 21 2017 1:04 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    NAHB's analysis of Census Data from the Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design survey indicates that the number of 2016 custom home building starts (homes built on an owner's land, with either the owner or a builder acting as the general contractor) set a post-recession high for an annual total. There were 41,000 total custom starts for the final... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 11:30 AM » Wells Fargo fund business on the defensive amid sales scandal
    Published Tue, Feb 21 2017 11:30 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - When a scandal over unauthorized accounts rocked Wells Fargo & Co's retail division last fall, executives at its asset management arm sprang into action to limit its fallout at an already tough time for their business.
  • 11:29 AM » Stock futures hit record highs amid retail earnings
    Published Tue, Feb 21 2017 11:29 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures rose to record intraday highs on Tuesday as oil prices surged and investors assessed earnings from top U.S. retailers.
  • 10:03 AM » U.S. Economic Confidence Holds Steady in Positive Territory
    Published Tue, Feb 21 2017 10:03 AM by www.gallup.com
    Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index averaged +7 for the week ending Feb. 19, the 14th consecutive week the index has been positive.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.gallup.com
  • 9:58 AM » Mortgage Debt as Percent of GDP
    Published Tue, Feb 21 2017 9:58 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Yesterday I excerpted from a post I wrote in February 2005 (yes, 12 years ago). In that 2005 post, I included a graph of household mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. Several readers asked if I could update the graph. First, from 2005: The following chart shows household mortgage debt as a % of GDP. Although mortgage debt has been increasing for years, the last four years have seen a tremendous increase in debt. Last year alone mortgage debt increased close to $800 Billion - almost 7% of GDP. Source: Federal Reserve  The second graph shows household mortgage debt as a percent of GDP through Q4 2016. Mortgage debt has declined by $1.21 trillion from the peak. Studies suggest most of the decline in debt has been because of foreclosures (or short sales), but some of the decline is from homeowners paying down debt (sometimes so they can refinance at better rates). The "bubble" is pretty obvious on this graph, and the sharp increase in mortgage debt was one of the warning signs.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:58 AM » Goldman Sachs: Investors are at 'maximum optimism' and have a letdown coming
    Published Tue, Feb 21 2017 9:58 AM by CNBC
    Goldman believes investors are reaching "the point of maximum optimism" that will lead later in the year to a pullback.
  • 9:58 AM » US labor market has 'more room to run,' Fed's Kashkari says
    Published Tue, Feb 21 2017 9:58 AM by CNBC
    Neel Kashkari is president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and a voting member of the Fed's policy-setting committee.
  • 9:58 AM » Older Americans Face Challenges When Aging in Place
    Published Tue, Feb 21 2017 9:58 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Older Americans Face Challenges When Aging in Place
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 8:14 AM » Fannie Mae's New Moderate Rehab Supplement Loan
    Published Tue, Feb 21 2017 8:14 AM by Fannie Mae
    News Release. Share This: February 20, 2017. Fannie Mae's New Moderate Rehab Supplement Loan Allows Borrowers ...
  • 8:12 AM » Home Depot earnings, revenue top expectations
    Published Tue, Feb 21 2017 8:12 AM by CNBC
    Home Depot's comparable sales also topped Wall Street estimates.
  • 8:12 AM » Least Polluted U.S. Cities (and the Dirtiest)
    Published Tue, Feb 21 2017 8:12 AM by www.realtor.com
    The cleanest cities are typically near agricultural communities. The most polluted are former industrial hubs in the Rust Belt and along the Gulf of Mexico. The post We Come Clean About the Least Polluted U.S. Cities (and the Dirtiest) appeared first on Real Estate News & Advice | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 8:11 AM » Post from 2005: Mortgage Debt and the "Recovery"
    Published Tue, Feb 21 2017 8:11 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Here are some excerpts from a post I wrote in February 2005 (hard to believe this was 12 years ago). Note: I think I've improved the graphs since then!  From 2005: The following chart shows household mortgage debt as a % of GDP. Although mortgage debt has been increasing for years, the last four years have seen a tremendous increase in debt. Last year alone mortgage debt increased close to $800 Billion - almost 7% of GDP. Source: Federal Reserve  Some obervers have remarked that mortgage debt is still below 50% of household RE assets - and that is an accurate statement. In fact, if you plot mortgage debt vs. household RE assets everything looks reasonable. Source: Federal Reserve  But lets plot household RE assets as a % of GDP. Source: Federal Reserve  This final graph shows the potential problem. Household assets have really soared in the last few years. Many homeowners have refinanced their homes (or moved and taken cash out), in essence using their homes as an ATM. It wouldn't take a RE bust to impact the general economy. Just a slowdown in both volume (to impact employment) and in prices (to slow down borrowing) might push the general economy into recession. An actual bust, especially with all of the extensive sub-prime lending, might cause a serious problem. CR note: And a serious problem is what happened.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:11 AM » Fannie and Freddie: REO inventory declined in Q4, Down 33% Year-over-year
    Published Tue, Feb 21 2017 8:11 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Fannie and Freddie reported results last week. Here is some information on Real Estate Owned (REOs). Freddie Mac reported the number of REO declined to 11,418 at the end of Q4 2106 compared to 17,004 at the end of Q4 2015. For Freddie, this is down 85% from the 74,897 peak number of REOs in Q3 2010. For Freddie, this is the lowest since at least 2007. Fannie Mae reported the number of REO declined to 38,093 at the end of Q4 2016 compared to 57,253 at the end of Q4 2015. For Fannie, this is down 77% from the 166,787 peak number of REOs in Q3 2010. For Fannie, this is the lowest since Q4 2007. Click on graph for larger image. Here is a graph of Fannie and Freddie Real Estate Owned (REO). REO inventory decreased in Q4 for both Fannie and Freddie, and combined inventory is down 33% year-over-year. Delinquencies are falling, but there are still a number of properties in the foreclosure process with long time lines in judicial foreclosure states - but this is getting close to normal levels of REOs.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:11 AM » Fannie Mae Closes 2016 with Record Multifamily Volume of ...
    Published Tue, Feb 21 2017 8:11 AM by Fannie Mae
    News Release. Share This: February 20, 2017. Fannie Mae Closes 2016 with Record Multifamily Volume of $55.3 Billion. Aleksandrs Rozens. ...
  • 8:11 AM » European Bonds Decline as PMI Data Point to Faster Inflation
    Published Tue, Feb 21 2017 8:11 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg European Bonds Decline as PMI Data Point to Faster Inflation Bloomberg European bonds fell as a gauge of euro-region economic output unexpectedly climbed to the highest level in almost six years, boosting bets for accelerating inflation and a winding down of the European Central Bank's asset-purchase program. Benchmark ... and more »
  • Fri, Feb 17 2017
  • 3:34 PM » The Misleading Math Behind the Rent vs. Buy Calculation
    Published Fri, Feb 17 2017 3:34 PM by www.realtor.com
    Homeownership is a critical building block of household wealth, a fact that's obscured by the traditional comparison of renting and owning costs. The post The Misleading Math Behind the Rent vs. Buy Calculation appeared first on Real Estate News & Advice | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 3:33 PM » Marine Le Pen could 'blow up' the European Union, and the fear's starting to show
    Published Fri, Feb 17 2017 3:33 PM by CNBC
    France's left-wing is gearing up for what promises to be a tough presidential campaign against candidate Marine Le Pen.
  • 12:39 PM » New Single-Family Home Size Trends
    Published Fri, Feb 17 2017 12:39 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    After increasing and leveling off in recent years, new single-family home size continued along a general trend of decreasing size during the fourth quarter of 2016. This ongoing change marks a reversal of the trend that had been in place as builders focused on the higher end of the market during the recovery. As the entry-level market expands, including growth for... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 12:39 PM » Phoenix Real Estate in January: Sales up 16%, Inventory down 8%
    Published Fri, Feb 17 2017 12:39 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble and bust, followed by strong investor buying. The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below): 1) Overall sales in January were up 15.9% year-over-year. 2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 27.1% of total sales. 3) Active inventory is now down 7.7% year-over-year.   More inventory (a theme in most of 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller. In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster.  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller. This is the third consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory following eight months with YoY increases.  This might be a change in trend - something to watch. January Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS   Sales YoY Change Sales Cash Sales Percent Cash Active Inventory YoY Change Inventory Jan-08 2,907 --- 553 19.0% 56,874 1 --- Jan-09 4,736 62.9% 1,625 34.3% 53,581 -5.8% Jan-10 5,789 22.2% 2,475 42.8% 41,506 -22.5% Jan-11 6,539 13.0% 3,263 49.9% 42,881 3.3% Jan-12 6,455 -1.3% 3,198 49.5% 25,025 -41.6% Jan-13 5,790 -10.3% 2,555 44.1% 22,090 -11.7% Jan-14 4,799 -17.1% 1,740 36.3% 28,630 29.6% Jan-15 4,785 -0.3% 1,529 32.0% 27,238 -4.9% Jan-16 5,199 8.7% 1,425 27.4% 25,736 -5.5% Jan-17 6,028 15.9% 1,631 27.1% 23,762 -7.7% 1 January 2008 probably included pending listings
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:38 PM » Huizenga reintroduces mortgage points-and-fees bill
    Published Fri, Feb 17 2017 12:38 PM by NAFCU
    House Financial Services Subcommittee Chairman Bill Huizenga, R-Mich., last week reintroduced NAFCU-supported legislation that would clarify the definition of points and fees under the Truth in Lending Act as applied through the CFPB's qualified mortgage rule.
  • 12:38 PM » Fannie Mae Reports Annual Net Income of $12.3 Billion and ...
    Published Fri, Feb 17 2017 12:38 PM by Fannie Mae
    News Release. Share This: February 17, 2017. Fannie Mae Reports Annual Net Income of $12.3 Billion and Comprehensive ...
  • 12:38 PM » Capitol Report: Fannie, Freddie paying $10 billion in dividends to Treasury
    Published Fri, Feb 17 2017 12:38 PM by Market Watch
    Government-backed mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are paying a combined $10 billion dividend to the U.S. Treasury, a sign of how a revived housing market is allowing the once-ailing firms to subsidize federal government spending.
  • 12:38 PM » How to Create a Floor Plan Before You Move Into Your New Home
    Published Fri, Feb 17 2017 12:38 PM by www.redfin.com
    Want to make your move easier and more efficient? Create a floor plan for your new home before you move in. Here's how. The post How to Create a Floor Plan Before You Move Into Your New Home appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 12:38 PM » CFPB seeking information on use of alternative data in credit process, including by small business lenders
    Published Fri, Feb 17 2017 12:38 PM by www.cfpbmonitor.com
    Stefanie Jackman and Scott M. Pearson The CFPB has issued a request for information (RFI) that seeks information about the use of alternative data and modeling techniques in the credit process. On March 21, 2017 from 12:00 to 1:00 p.m. ET, Ballard Spahr attorneys will hold a webinar: The New Frontier of Alternative Credit Models: Opportunities, Risks and the CFPB’s Request... More >
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.cfpbmonitor.com
  • Thu, Feb 16 2017
  • 4:27 PM » Comments on January Housing Starts
    Published Thu, Feb 16 2017 4:27 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Earlier: Housing Starts at 1.246 Million Annual Rate in January The housing starts report released this morning showed starts were down in January compared to December 2016, however starts in December (and November) were revised up sharply.  Starts in January were actually somewhat above consensus - and above the preliminary release for December. Note that multi-family is frequently volatile month-to-month, and has seen especially wild swings over the last five months.  Single family starts were solid in January. This first graph shows the month to month comparison between 2016 (blue) and 2017 (red). Click on graph for larger image. Starts were up 10.5% in January 2017 compared to January 2016. My guess is starts will increase around 3% to 7% in 2017 . This is a solid start to 2017. Below is an update to the graph comparing multi-family starts and completions. Since it usually takes over a year on average to complete a multi-family project, there is a lag between multi-family starts and completions. Completions are important because that is new supply added to the market, and starts are important because that is future new supply (units under construction is also important for employment). These graphs use a 12 month rolling total for NSA starts and completions. The blue line is for multifamily starts and the red line is for multifamily completions. The rolling 12 month total for starts (blue line) increased steadily over the last few years - but has started to decline.  Completions (red line) have lagged behind - but completions have been generally catching up (more deliveries, although this has dipped lately).  Completions lag starts by about 12 months. I think most of the growth in multi-family starts is probably behind us - in fact multi-family starts probably peaked in June 2015 (at 510 thousand SAAR) - although I expect solid multi-family starts for a few more years ( based on demographics ). The second graph shows single family...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 4:26 PM » ECB Willing to Bend Its QE Rules in Push to Keep Up Stimulus
    Published Thu, Feb 16 2017 4:26 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg ECB Willing to Bend Its QE Rules in Push to Keep Up Stimulus Bloomberg European Central Bank officials indicated that they'll relax the application of some rules on bond buying to help maintain their "substantial" expansionary policy, opening the door to more purchases of peripheral debt. Italian and Spanish bonds rose ... and more »
  • 11:14 AM » NY Fed: US household debt at highest level since 2008
    Published Thu, Feb 16 2017 11:14 AM by CNBC
    Household debt in the U.S. totals a staggering $12.58 trillion, a level not seen since 2008, according to the New York Federal Reserve.
  • 11:14 AM » Housing Affordability Remains Favorable Even as it Hits an Eight-Year Low
    Published Thu, Feb 16 2017 11:14 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    Shortages of buildable lots and skilled labor, along with excessive regulations, rising mortgage interest rates and ongoing home price appreciation pushed housing affordability in the fourth quarter of 2016 to its lowest point since the third quarter of 2008, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI). In all, 59.9 percent of new and existing... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 11:14 AM » Fed's Lockhart says Yellen kept March meeting live for interest-rate hike
    Published Thu, Feb 16 2017 11:14 AM by Market Watch
    Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen's two-days of testimony to Congress earlier this week signaled there will likely be interest-rate hikes this year and she kept the door open for a March meeting, said Dennis Lockhart, the head of the central bank's Atlanta regional bank, on Thursday. Lockhart is retiring from the Atlanta Fed at the end of the month and will not attend the Fed's next policy meeting on March 14-15. In an interview on Bloomberg TV, Lockhart said recent data suggest the economy is on a "little stronger" path than he expected and he might have been "persuadable" to support a March interest-rate hike. Lockhart said he expects the Fed to raise rates 2 or 3 times this year. "I could go either way based on what we've seen," he said.
  • 11:14 AM » JPMorgan moving mortgages online to please paper-weary customers
    Published Thu, Feb 16 2017 11:14 AM by Reuters
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co is gradually introducing a digital mortgage platform where customers can apply online and track applications by mobile phone.
  • 10:13 AM » Mortgage Rates Continue Holding Pattern
    Published Thu, Feb 16 2017 10:13 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Mortgage Rates Continue Holding Pattern
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 9:55 AM » 'March is a done deal' for the Fed's next rate hike, Peter Boockvar says
    Published Thu, Feb 16 2017 9:55 AM by CNBC
    Inflation statistics and Janet Yellen's congressional testimony set the stage for a March hike, Boockvar tells CNBC.
  • 9:55 AM » Home Prices and Sales Showed Steady Growth in January While Inventory Continued to Decline
    Published Thu, Feb 16 2017 9:55 AM by www.redfin.com
    While housing inventory continued to decline, January home prices and sales both increased The post Home Prices and Sales Showed Steady Growth in January While Inventory Continued to Decline appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
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