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  • Thu, Jul 2 2015
  • 8:52 AM » ECB Decided to 'Look Through' Market Volatility, Accounts Show
    Published Thu, Jul 02 2015 8:52 AM by Bloomberg
    ECB Decided to 'Look Through' Market Volatility, Accounts Show Bloomberg The European Central Bank concluded that the sell-off in the region's bond markets in the first quarter of the year wasn't sufficient reason to change the course of monetary policy. "It was widely felt that it was advisable for the Governing Council to ...
  • 12:27 AM » Greece's Tsipras digs in against bailout
    Published Thu, Jul 02 2015 12:27 AM by CNBC
    A defiant Alexis Tsipras urged Greeks to reject an international bailout deal, wrecking any prospect of repairing relations with EU partners.
  • 12:17 AM » Move Over Greece: For Treasuries Traders, Today Is About the Fed
    Published Thu, Jul 02 2015 12:17 AM by Bloomberg
    Move Over Greece: For Treasuries Traders, Today Is About the Fed Bloomberg It's the day the Labor Department will probably say U.S. employers added more than 200,000 jobs for the 15th time in 16 months, backing the case for higher interest rates as early as September. Those prospects have pushed 10-year Treasury yields to the ...
  • 12:17 AM » Cash Homebuyers Pull Back as Foreclosures Vanish in U.S.
    Published Thu, Jul 02 2015 12:17 AM by Bloomberg
    Cash Homebuyers Pull Back as Foreclosures Vanish in U.S. Bloomberg The share of U.S. home purchases made with cash has fallen to a five-year low as investors pull back from a property market that's rebounding without them. Fewer than 25 percent of single-family home and condominium purchases were all-cash transactions ...
  • Wed, Jul 1 2015
  • 3:43 PM » Mayor of Athens Completely Disagrees with Tsipras about Referendum
    Published Wed, Jul 01 2015 3:43 PM by Bloomberg
    George Kaminis, the mayor of Athens, discusses the Greek debt crisis and the likelihood of the country staying in the euro zone. He speaks with Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker on "Bloomberg Markets." (Source: Bloomberg)
  • 3:38 PM » Tsipras' Propaganda Video to Greek People (Translated)
    Published Wed, Jul 01 2015 3:38 PM by Bloomberg
    Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras calls for voters to reject austerity measures in Sunday's referendum, hardening a standoff with creditors hours after making a renewed bid for aid as the nation sinks deeper into financial misery. Tsipras speaks in an address on national television. (Tsipras's excerpted remarks in Greek are translated into English. Source: Bloomberg)
  • 3:36 PM » Office Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q2 to 16.6%
    Published Wed, Jul 01 2015 3:36 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Reis released their Q2 2015 Office Vacancy survey this morning. Reis reported that the office vacancy rate was unchanged compared to Q1 at 16.6%. This is down from 16.9% in Q2 2014, and down from the cycle peak of 17.6%. From Reis: The national vacancy rate remained unchanged at 16.6% during the second quarter. Vacancy compression stalled this quarter because net absorption was slightly outpaced by new construction. This appears to be just a pause as vacancy compression has been more consistent in recent quarters. With the economy and labor market continuing to improve, demand should outpace new construction by a wider margin over time, resulting in more rapid vacancy compression than has occurred up to this point. ... Occupied stock increased by 8.154 million square feet during the second quarter. This was an increase versus last quarter. However, more heartening data can be found in the year-to-date net absorption figure of 15.607 million SF. This is a 22% increase over 2014's year-to-date absorption and the best midyear performance since before the recession. This provides the strongest evidence yet that greater demand is returning to the office market. Although the pace of improvement has been slower than in previous recoveries, it appears that this recovery is finally gaining momentum. We expect this to continue going forward as ongoing increases in hiring translate into greater space needs for office users. New construction of 8.303 million SF is a bounce back from the first quarter. Most of the new inventory coming online is preleased. Although it is slowly increasing, there remains little new purely speculative development in the market. This will likely persist until vacancy is far lower - with such an elevated vacancy rate, investors and lenders remain cautious about green lighting construction that does not have a pre-leased component. When this stringent pre-leasing prerequisite is finally dropped it will be a clear sign to the market that the...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:35 PM » U.S. Job Creation Index Holds in June at Record High of +32
    Published Wed, Jul 01 2015 3:35 PM by
    Gallup's U.S. Job Creation Index measured +32 in June, tying the record high set the month before. The index increased to +36 in the Midwestern region of the U.S., but dropped slightly in the East to +27.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 3:34 PM » Merkel-Tsipras Sparring Leaves Greece in Limbo Until Sunday Vote
    Published Wed, Jul 01 2015 3:34 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Merkel-Tsipras Sparring Leaves Greece in Limbo Until Sunday Vote Bloomberg Angela Merkel, Germany's chancellor, pauses during a news conference with Matteo Renzi, Italy's prime minister, at the Chancellery in Berlin, Germany, on Wednesday, July 1, 2015. Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg. Don't Miss Out - Follow ... and more »
  • 3:32 PM » ECB leaves emergency lending program for Greek banks unchanged: reports
    Published Wed, Jul 01 2015 3:32 PM by Market Watch
    The European Central Bank on Wednesday left its cap on emergency liquidity for Greek banks unchanged at around 89 billion euros ($98.4 billion), news reports said. ECB policy makers also made no decision on whether to demand tougher haircuts on Greek government bonds and other debt used for collateral in return for emergency funding, the Financial Times reported. Investors were closely watching the ECB decision after Greece on Tuesday failed to make a 1.54 billion euro repayment due to the International Monetary Fund.
  • 3:32 PM » 5 Things to Watch in the June Jobs Report
    Published Wed, Jul 01 2015 3:32 PM by WSJ
    The June jobs report, due out Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EDT, could confirm that the U.S. economy is strengthening, despite rising global turmoil.
  • 3:03 PM » The US Private Label Mortgage-Backed Securities Market in 2015
    Published Wed, Jul 01 2015 3:03 PM by SIFMA
    The US Private Label Mortgage-Backed Securities Market in 2015<br/>
  • 1:49 PM » U.S. Construction Spending Hits New Postrecession High
    Published Wed, Jul 01 2015 1:49 PM by WSJ
    U.S. construction spending hit a new postrecession peak in May, a likely boost for the economy in the second quarter of the year.
  • 1:48 PM » Huge CEO bonuses at Fannie Mae
    Published Wed, Jul 01 2015 1:48 PM by CNBC
    Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac disclosed huge pay raises for their CEOs, despite opposition from the Obama administration.
  • 11:23 AM » Fed's Brainard: Looking at bond market liquidity
    Published Wed, Jul 01 2015 11:23 AM by CNBC
    The Fed is in the early stages of an analysis on changes in bond market liquidity, amid signs that liquidity may be less resilient than in past.
  • 11:20 AM » US housing stages ‘lopsided' recovery
    Published Wed, Jul 01 2015 11:20 AM by CNBC
    The Financial Times explores the housing market's recovery and why it could be called "lopsided."
  • 11:20 AM » Construction Spending increased 0.8% in May
    Published Wed, Jul 01 2015 11:20 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Earlier today, the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased in May: The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during May 2015 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,035.8 billion, 0.8 percent above the revised April estimate of $1,027.0 billion. The May figure is 8.2 percent above the May 2014 estimate of $957.6 billion. Both Private and public spending increased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $752.4 billion, 0.9 percent above the revised April estimate of $745.6 billion. ... In May, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $283.4 billion, 0.7 percent above the revised April estimate of $281.5 billion. emphasis added Note: Non-residential for offices and hotels is generally increasing, but spending for oil and gas has been declining. Early in the recovery, there was a surge in non-residential spending for oil and gas (because oil prices increased), but now, with falling prices, oil and gas is a drag on overall construction spending. As an example, construction spending for private lodging is up 30% year-over-year, whereas spending for power (includes oil and gas) construction peaked in mid-2014 and is down 24% year-over-year . Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. Private residential spending has been increasing recently, and is 47% below the bubble peak. Non-residential spending is only 5% below the peak in January 2008 (nominal dollars). Public construction spending is now 13% below the peak in March 2009 and about 7% above the post-recession low. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending. On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 8%. Non-residential spending is up 13...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:20 AM » ISM manufacturing index hits 53.5 in June; Construction spending up 0.8% in May
    Published Wed, Jul 01 2015 11:20 AM by CNBC
    This is a breaking news story. Analysts had expected the ISM index to reach 53.1 in June, according to a poll by Thomson Reuters. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had forecast a slowdown in construction spending for the month of May of 0.5 percent compared to 2.2 percent in April.
  • 9:00 AM » JPMorgan builds up apartment-loan leader from WaMu rubble
    Published Wed, Jul 01 2015 9:00 AM by Reuters
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - In September 2008, JPMorgan Chase & Co executives sifted through the rubble of Washington Mutual, the failed home loan bank that they had just won in a U.S. government auction.
  • 8:43 AM » Treasuries Decline as Greece Moves Closer to Accepting Bailout
    Published Wed, Jul 01 2015 8:43 AM by Bloomberg
    Treasuries Decline as Greece Moves Closer to Accepting Bailout Bloomberg Treasuries fell after Greece's Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras sent a letter to international creditors saying he was ready to accept conditions required in return for a financial bailout, subject to certain conditions. The benchmark U.S. 10-year ...
  • 8:39 AM » Surprise! Puerto Rico Wasn't a Thing, After All
    Published Wed, Jul 01 2015 8:39 AM by CNBC
    The Puerto Rican power utility has reached a deal with its creditors to make its $416 million payment.
  • 8:38 AM » U.S. private sector adds 237,000 jobs in June: ADP
    Published Wed, Jul 01 2015 8:38 AM by Reuters
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. private employers added 237,000 jobs in June, the biggest gain since December, suggesting further improvement in the jobs market which may allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates later this year, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Wednesday.
  • 8:36 AM » BofA, Citigroup to Fund Affordable Housing in N.Y. Settlements
    Published Wed, Jul 01 2015 8:36 AM by Bloomberg
    BofA, Citigroup to Fund Affordable Housing in N.Y. Settlements Bloomberg New York City's affordable housing stock will get a boost from Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. as part of settlements resolving mortgage-bond practices that led to the 2008 financial crisis. New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman will ...
  • 8:34 AM » Highest rates in 9 months hits mortgage applications
    Published Wed, Jul 01 2015 8:34 AM by CNBC
    Rising mortgage rates are taking their toll on both home buyers and home owners looking to save on their monthly payments.
  • Tue, Jun 30 2015
  • 10:23 PM » Greece No Hurdle for Bond Sellers Lured by Draghi's Euro Bounty
    Published Tue, Jun 30 2015 10:23 PM by Bloomberg
    Greece No Hurdle for Bond Sellers Lured by Draghi's Euro Bounty Bloomberg Greece's relationship with the euro may be under strain, but the currency is finding new love in Asia and Latin America. In the first half of 2015, companies from Sinopec Group to Petroleos Mexicanos as well as the Mexican government sold bonds ...
  • 10:23 PM » With Greece, Is the IMF at Risk of Repeating Its Own Mistakes?
    Published Tue, Jun 30 2015 10:23 PM by WSJ
    As Greece defaults on its payments to the International Monetary Fund, is the emergency lender at risk of repeating bailout history? So say some of its sharpest critics.
  • 8:42 PM » Fannie Mae Releases May 2015 Monthly Summary
    Published Tue, Jun 30 2015 8:42 PM by Fannie Mae
    The monthly summary report contains information about Fannie Mae s monthly and year-to-date activities for our gross mortgage portfolio, mortgage ...
  • 8:42 PM » Wednesday: ISM Mfg, ADP Employment, Auto Sales, Construction Spending
    Published Tue, Jun 30 2015 8:42 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Statement by the IMF on Greece Press Release No.15/310 June 30, 2015 Mr. Gerry Rice, Director of Communications at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), made the following statement today regarding Greece's financial obligations to the IMF due today: "I confirm that the SDR 1.2 billion repayment (about EUR 1.5 billion) due by Greece to the IMF today has not been received. We have informed our Executive Board that Greece is now in arrears and can only receive IMF financing once the arrears are cleared. "I can also confirm that the IMF received a request today from the Greek authorities for an extension of Greece's repayment obligation that fell due today, which will go to the IMF's Executive Board in due course." Wednesday: • At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index . • At 8:15 AM, the ADP Employment Report for June . This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 220,000 payroll jobs added in June, up from 200,000 in May. • At 10:00 AM, the ISM Manufacturing Index for June . The consensus is for an increase to 53.2 from 52.8 in May. The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion at 52.8% in May. The employment index was at 51.7%, and the new orders index was at 55.8%. • Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for May . The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in construction spending. • All day, Light vehicle sales for June . The consensus is for light vehicle sales to decrease to 17.2 million SAAR in June from 17.7 million in May (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:42 PM » What Is the European Union, Exactly?
    Published Tue, Jun 30 2015 3:42 PM by The Atlantic
    The question is at the center of the Greek crisis.
  • 3:41 PM » Eurozone finance ministers reject Greece bailout extension request
    Published Tue, Jun 30 2015 3:41 PM by Market Watch
    Eurozone finance ministers rejected Greece's last-minute request to extend its bailout program, but will consider a request for a new rescue program, Finland's finance minister, Alexander Stubb, said via Twitter. "Extension of program or haircut not possible...request for ESM-program is always dealt with through normal procedures," Stubb said in a pair of tweets following a conference call with eurozone finance ministers. Greece has called for a new, two-year bailout program via the European Stability Mechanism, or ESM, which is Europe's permanent bailout facility. News reports said finance ministers will meet again Wednesday to further discuss the ESM request. Greece's current bailout program expires at midnight.
  • 3:41 PM » Bill Gross: Here's why the Fed needs to hike rates
    Published Tue, Jun 30 2015 3:41 PM by CNBC
    Bill Gross believes the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates once this year-but only because it needs to prove that it can.
  • 2:39 PM » Fischer: Will consider rate hikes soon
    Published Tue, Jun 30 2015 2:39 PM by CNBC
    The Fed will consider rate hikes at upcoming policy meetings, but is weighing the risks of moving too early, a top Fed official said.
  • 2:09 PM » Statement on Updated Private Mortgage Insurer Eligibility - Fannie
    Published Tue, Jun 30 2015 2:09 PM by Fannie Mae
    On April 17, 2015, Fannie Mae published the revised Private Mortgage Insurer Eligibility Requirements (PMIERs).
  • 1:00 PM » Syriza's referendum will divide Greece: Papandreou
    Published Tue, Jun 30 2015 1:00 PM by CNBC
    Syriza didn't need to call a referendum on Greece's bailout because consensus already exists, former Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said.
  • 11:38 AM » Yellen may have just gotten her excuse: Ex-Fed gov
    Published Tue, Jun 30 2015 11:38 AM by CNBC
    The spiraling Greek debt crisis might delay Janet Yellen's central bank from increasing rates, former Fed Gov. Larry Lindsey tells CNBC.
  • 11:37 AM » Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in April
    Published Tue, Jun 30 2015 11:37 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The expected slowdown in year-over-year price increases has occurred. In October 2013, the National index was up 10.9% year-over-year (YoY). In April 2015, the index was up 4.2% YoY.  However the YoY change has only declined slightly recently. Here is the YoY change for the last 12 months for the National Index: Month YoY Change May-14 7.1% Jun-14 6.3% Jul-14 5.6% Aug-14 5.1% Sep-14 4.8% Oct-14 4.7% Nov-14 4.7% Dec-14 4.6% Jan-15 4.4% Feb-15 4.3% Mar-15 4.2% Apr-15 4.2% As I've noted before, I think most of the slowdown on a YoY basis is now behind us (I don't expect price to go negative this year). This slowdown in price increases was expected by several key analysts, and I think it was good news for housing and the economy. In the earlier post , I graphed nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms (inflation adjusted).  Case-Shiller, CoreLogic and others report nominal house prices.  As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be close to $274,000 today adjusted for inflation (37%).  That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices (adjusted for inflation). It has been almost ten years since the bubble peak.  In the Case-Shiller release this morning, the National Index was reported as being 7.6% below the bubble peak.    However, in real terms, the National index is still about 21% below the bubble peak. Nominal House Prices The first graph shows the monthly Case-Shiller National Index SA, the monthly Case-Shiller Composite 20 SA, and the CoreLogic House Price Indexes (through March) in nominal terms as reported. In nominal terms, the Case-Shiller National index (SA) is back to June 2005 levels, and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 Index (SA) is back to February 2005 levels, and the CoreLogic index (NSA) is back to April 2005. Real House Prices The second graph shows the same three indexes...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:37 AM » Chicago PMI rises in June
    Published Tue, Jun 30 2015 10:37 AM by CNBC
    Business activity in the U.S. Midwest improved modestly during June, but fell short of forecasts, a report showed on Tuesday.
  • 10:32 AM » U.S. consumer confidence improves in June
    Published Tue, Jun 30 2015 10:32 AM by Reuters
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence strengthened in June, bolstered by an improving jobs market, according to a private sector report released on Tuesday.
  • 9:38 AM » US home prices up 4.9% in April: S&P/Case-Shiller
    Published Tue, Jun 30 2015 9:38 AM by CNBC
    Home prices continued to rise in April, but at a slower pace than the previous month, according to the latest S&P/Case Shiller Index report.
  • 9:03 AM » China's Slowdown is of Greater Consequence than Greece's Debt
    Published Tue, Jun 30 2015 9:03 AM by WSJ
    The Wall Street Journal's Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Tuesday, June 30, 2015. Jon Hilsenrath sees more danger in the uncertainties around China's prospects than the knowns of Greece's grim fate.
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