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  • Wed, Dec 7 2016
  • 3:40 PM » July 11 was a bigger deal than Brexit, Trump or the Fed, says chief investment strategist
    Published Wed, Dec 07 2016 3:40 PM by CNBC
    On that day, longer-term bond yields hit what market experts believe was a multi-decade low not to be seen again soon.
  • 3:38 PM » Traders Caught Up in Wall Street Probes Switch to Shadow Banking
    Published Wed, Dec 07 2016 3:38 PM by Bloomberg
    Traders Caught Up in Wall Street Probes Switch to Shadow Banking Bloomberg Some mortgage bond traders tangled up in investigations are moving into the shadow banking system, where their new employers have greater latitude to hire people with blemishes on their records. More than 20 traders at big banks left their jobs, or ... and more »
  • 3:38 PM » ABN Amro to Fire Staff in Mortgage Signature Misconduct Probe
    Published Wed, Dec 07 2016 3:38 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg ABN Amro to Fire Staff in Mortgage Signature Misconduct Probe Bloomberg ABN Amro Group NV will fire some of the mortgage advisers that copied client signatures on amended loan documents and eliminate bonuses for others after a probe found 90 staff broke the Dutch bank's internal rules. "Several dozen" employees have been ... and more »
  • 3:37 PM » Las Vegas Real Estate in November: Sales up 30% YoY, Inventory down Sharply
    Published Wed, Dec 07 2016 3:37 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas has seen the largest price decline of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities. The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported Southern Nevada Home Prices and Sales Increasing Heading into Holidays, GLVAR Housing Statistics for November 2016 The Greater Las Vegas Association of REALTORS® (GLVAR) reported Wednesday that Southern Nevada home prices bucked seasonal trends and increased heading into the holidays while home sales continued to exceed last year's pace. ... According to GLVAR, the total number of existing local homes, condominiums and townhomes sold in November was 3,244. That was up 30.0 percent from one year ago. Compared to the same month one year ago, 31.8 percent more homes, and 31.2 percent more condos and townhomes sold in November. So far in 2016, Beaudry said Southern Nevada is on pace to sell more existing homes this year than during 2015 and during 2014, but fewer than during each of the previous five years. He added that inventory remains tight, with less than a three-month supply of homes available for sale, when a six-month supply is considered to be a balanced market. ... By the end of November, GLVAR reported 7,252 single-family homes listed for sale without any sort of offer. That's down 30.3 percent from one year ago . For condos and townhomes, the 1,141 properties listed without offers in November represented a 49.0 percent decrease from one year ago. emphasis added 1) Overall sales were up 30% year-over-year. 2) Active inventory (single-family and condos) is down sharply from a year ago (A very sharp decline in both single family and condo inventory). This is the second market (Phoenix reported yesterday) with sales up 30% year-over-year. There might be some seasonal factors (more selling days), but this is a significant increase in these markets.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:02 AM » BLS: Job Openings "little changed" in October
    Published Wed, Dec 07 2016 11:02 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 5.5 million on the last business day of October , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were also little changed at 5.1 million and 4.9 million, respectively.... ... The number of quits was little changed in October at 3.0 million . The quits rate was 2.1 percent. Over the month, the number of quits was little changed for total private, and decreased for government (-26,000). emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for October, the most recent employment report was for November. Click on graph for larger image. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Jobs openings decreased in October to 5.534 million from 5.631 million in September.  Job openings are mostly moving sideways at a high level. The number of job openings (yellow) are up 2% year-over-year. Quits are up 7% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits"). This is another solid report.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:01 AM » Residential Construction Employment Grew in November
    Published Wed, Dec 07 2016 11:01 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    The count of unfilled jobs in the overall construction sector remained elevated in October, as residential construction employment continued to grow. According to the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and NAHB analysis, the number of open construction sector jobs (on a seasonally adjusted basis) came in at 205,000 in October, after reaching 221,000 in September. The cycle high was 225,000 set in July. The... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 10:09 AM » Bond Report: Treasury yields retreat as Thursday's ECB meeting looms
    Published Wed, Dec 07 2016 10:09 AM by Market Watch
    Yields on European and U.S. sovereign bonds edged lower on Wednesday ahead of a long-anticipated announcement about the future of the European Central Bank's €80 billion ($85 billion) a month bond buying program.
  • 9:05 AM » If You Voted for Trump, It's Time to Buy a House
    Published Wed, Dec 07 2016 9:05 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg If You Voted for Trump, It's Time to Buy a House Bloomberg Republicans were pessimistic about the housing market when he trailed in the polls. No more. by. Patrick Clark. @pat_clark More stories by Patrick Clark. December 7, 2016 - 5:00 AM EST. In the housing market, perception often creates its own reality. and more »
  • 9:04 AM » ECB poised to extend its bond-buying program into next September amid heightened Italy risk
    Published Wed, Dec 07 2016 9:04 AM by CNBC
    For Mario Draghi, the timing of Italian referendum and its outcome could not have come at a worse time.
  • Tue, Dec 6 2016
  • 5:05 PM » Phoenix Real Estate in November: Sales up 30%, Inventory down 2%
    Published Tue, Dec 06 2016 5:05 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying. Inventory was down 2% year-over-year in October.  This followed eight consecutive months with a YoY increase in inventory. The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below): 1) Overall sales in November were up 30.2% year-over-year. 2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 23.4% of total sales. 3) Active inventory is now down 1.8% year-over-year.   More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller. In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster -  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller. This slight decrease in inventory followed eight monthly YoY increases.  This might be a change in trend - something to watch. November Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS   Sales YoY Change Sales Cash Sales Percent Cash Active Inventory YoY Change Inventory Nov-08 4,417 --- 1,217 27.6% 56,227 1 --- Nov-09 7,494 69.7% 2,572 34.3% 40,372 -28.2% Nov-10 6,789 -9.4% 2,966 43.7% 45,353 12.3% Nov-11 7,147 5.3% 3,245 45.4% 26,798 -40.9% Nov-12 6,810 -4.7% 2,945 43.2% 23,232 -13.3% Nov-13 5,181 -23.9% 1,761 34.0% 26,762 15.2% Nov-14 4,986 -3.8% 1,396 28.0% 27,426 2.5% Nov-15 5,308 6.5% 1,542 29.1% 25,022 -8.8% Nov-16 6,911 30.2% 1,618 23.4% 24,582 -1.8% 1 November 2008 probably includes pending listings
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:55 PM » Trump seems like he's trying to restore pre-financial crisis inequities: Michael Lewis
    Published Tue, Dec 06 2016 3:55 PM by CNBC
    Author Michael Lewis is terrified that capital requirements on banks may be reduced when Trump takes office.
  • 12:49 PM » Wells Fargo expects short term profit hit from interest rates rise: CEO
    Published Tue, Dec 06 2016 12:49 PM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - Wells Fargo & Co will see a near term profit hit because of the sharp rise in interest rates, Chief Executive Officer Tim Sloan said on Tuesday.
  • 10:32 AM » U.S. Economy: No Recovery
    Published Tue, Dec 06 2016 10:32 AM by www.gallup.com
    A Gallup study of U.S. growth and productivity finds no economic recovery. The Great Recession may be over, but America is running on empty.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.gallup.com
  • 10:32 AM » U.S. factory orders post biggest gain in nearly 1-1/2 years
    Published Tue, Dec 06 2016 10:32 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON, (Reuters) - New orders for U.S. factory goods recorded their biggest increase in nearly 1-1/2 years in October, further evidence that the manufacturing sector is gradually recovering after a prolonged downturn.
  • 10:31 AM » Bond Report: Treasury yields unchanged ahead of central bank meetings
    Published Tue, Dec 06 2016 10:31 AM by Market Watch
    Treasury yields were little-changed Tuesday, as investors were reluctant to make big bets ahead of the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday and the Federal Reserve policy meeting next week
  • 9:59 AM » U.S. productivity in third quarter fastest in two years
    Published Tue, Dec 06 2016 9:59 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON, (Reuters) - U.S. worker productivity rebounded sharply in the third quarter as initially estimated, marking its quickest rate of growth in two years, but the trend remained weak.
  • 9:54 AM » Credit Restrictions Cost Home Buyers ‘Deal of a Lifetime'
    Published Tue, Dec 06 2016 9:54 AM by www.realtor.com
    U.S. consumers have enjoyed ultralow borrowing costs since the financial crisis, but regulators and lenders have made it harder for many to get loans. The post Credit Restrictions Cost Home Buyers 'Deal of a Lifetime' appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 9:54 AM » Bill Gross: Trump good for stocks now, but bad for 'long-term debt crisis'
    Published Tue, Dec 06 2016 9:54 AM by CNBC
    President-elect Donald Trump will be good for stocks but only add to a "long-term global debt crisis," bond guru Bill Gross said Tuesday.
  • 9:52 AM » Real estate sector has sunk since its creation, and could spiral further
    Published Tue, Dec 06 2016 9:52 AM by CNBC
    Since its creation in September, the S&P 500 real estate sector has been the market's worst performer.
  • 7:58 AM » Traders count down to ECB, Fed meetings
    Published Tue, Dec 06 2016 7:58 AM by CNBC
    Market attention may center Tuesday on monetary policy, as traders await major central bank meetings over the next several days.
  • 7:58 AM » Pricier home prices spark surge in Toll Brothers revenue
    Published Tue, Dec 06 2016 7:58 AM by CNBC
    U.S. luxury homes builder Toll Brothers reported a 29.1 percent rise in quarterly revenue, boosted by higher home sales and an increase in average selling prices.
  • Mon, Dec 5 2016
  • 4:13 PM » Trump policies may work if they improve productivity: Fed's Bullard
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 4:13 PM by Reuters
    PHOENIX (Reuters) - The policies outlined by President-elect Donald Trump could boost the U.S. economy if they improve productivity, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said on Monday.
  • 4:12 PM » Ben Carson, no fan of government or housing policy, draws fire as pick for HUD top spot
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 4:12 PM by Market Watch
    The retired neurosurgeon has been nominated as secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development despite saying previously he would not lead a federal agency.
  • 2:22 PM » Fed officials warn Trump that fiscal policy must be smart
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 2:22 PM by Market Watch
    New York Fed President William Dudley and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans warned Republicans that their plans for government spending must be designed with care to boost the economy while saving money in case of a downturn.
  • 2:16 PM » Suburbs Outstrip Cities in Population Growth, Study Finds
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 2:16 PM by www.realtor.com
    Big cities may be getting all the attention, but the suburbs are holding their own in the battle for population and young earners, a new study finds. The post Suburbs Outstrip Cities in Population Growth, Study Finds appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 1:26 PM » 2017 Housing Forecasts
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 1:26 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year.  It looks like analysts are optimistic on New Home sales for 2017. First a review of the previous four years ... Here is a summary of forecasts for 2016 . In 2016, new home sales will probably be around 565 thousand, and total housing starts will be around 1.175 million.  Fannie Mae and Merrill Lynch were very close on New Home sales, and MetroStudy was close on starts. Here is a summary of forecasts for 2015 . In 2015, new home sales were 501 thousand, and total housing starts were 1.112 million.  Zillow, CoreLogic, and the MBA were right on with New Home sales, and CoreLogic, MetroStudy, MBA and Zillow were all correct on starts. Here is a summary of forecasts for 2014 . In 2014, new home sales were 437 thousand, and total housing starts were 1.003 million. No one was close on New Home sales (all way too optimistic), and Michelle Meyer (Merrill Lynch) and Fannie Mae were the closest on housing starts (about 10% too high). In 2014, many analysts underestimated the impact of higher mortgage rates and higher new home prices on new home sales and starts. Here is a summary of forecasts for 2013 . In 2013, new home sales were 429 thousand, and total housing starts were 925 thousand.  Barclays was the closest on New Home sales followed by David Crowe (NAHB).  Fannie Mae and the NAHB were the closest on housing starts. The table below shows several forecasts for 2017: From Fannie Mae: Housing Forecast: November 2016 From Freddie Mac: Interest Rates Headed Higher. What that Means for Housing From NAHB: NAHB's housing and economic forecast From Wells Fargo: Monthly Economic Outlook From NAR: U.S. Economic Outlook: November 2016 Note: For comparison, new home sales in 2016 will probably be around 565 thousand, and total housing starts around 1.175 million. Housing Forecasts for 2017 New Home Sales (000s) Single Family Starts...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:26 PM » How Will Homebuyers React to Mortgage Rate Increases?
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 1:26 PM by www.redfin.com
    Yes, homebuyers have seen mortgage rate increases of over half a percent in the past three weeks. But according a Redfin survey, most are still buying. The post How Will Homebuyers React to Mortgage Rate Increases? appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 11:44 AM » ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 57.2% in November
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 11:44 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The November ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 57.2%, up from 54.8% in October. The employment index increased in November to 58.1%, from 53.1%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: November 2016 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in November for the 82nd consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. " The NMI® registered 57.2 percent in November , 2.4 percentage points higher than the October reading of 54.8 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. This is the 12-month high, and the highest reading since the 58.3 registered in October of 2015. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 61.7 percent, 4 percentage points higher than the October reading of 57.7 percent, reflecting growth for the 88th consecutive month, at a faster rate in November. The New Orders Index registered 57 percent, 0.7 percentage point lower than the reading of 57.7 percent in October. The Employment Index increased 5.1 percentage points in November to 58.2 percent from the October reading of 53.1 percent. The Prices Index decreased 0.3 percentage point from the October reading of 56.6 percent to 56.3 percent, indicating prices increased in November for the eighth consecutive month at a slightly slower rate. According to the NMI®, 14 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in November. The Non-Manufacturing sector rebounded after a slight cooling-off in October. The majority of respondents' comments are positive about business conditions and the direction of the overall economy." emphasis added Click...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:34 AM » What Qualifies Ben Carson To Run HUD? 'His Life,' Says Longtime Adviser
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 11:34 AM by www.npr.org
    President-elect Trump announced he's appointing Ben Carson as secretary of Housing and Urban Development. Rachel Martin talks with Carson adviser Armstrong Williams, a conservative talk show host.
  • 10:13 AM » Trump effect: That house you want got $16,000 more expensive since he won
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 10:13 AM by CNBC
    Since Trump's victory, rising mortgage rates have made homes the least affordable since the Great Recession.
  • 9:34 AM » U.S. fiscal picture unclear; rate-hike plan stays for now: Fed's Dudley
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 9:34 AM by Reuters
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. election of Donald Trump has created "considerable" uncertainty over the policies he will pursue so it is too soon for the Federal Reserve to judge whether its plan for gradual interest rate hikes needs adjusting, one of the most influential Fed policymakers said on Monday.
  • 9:33 AM » Black Knight's October Mortgage Monitor: Post-Election Rate Jumps Eliminate 4.3 Million from Refinanceable Population
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 9:33 AM by www.bkfs.com
    Black Knight's October Mortgage Monitor: Post-Election Rate Jumps Eliminate 4.3 Million from Refinanceable Population<br/>http://www.bkfs.com/CorporateInformation/NewsRoom/Pages/20161205.aspx
  • 9:33 AM » NAHB Releases New Home Building Employment Estimates by State and Congressional District
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 9:33 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    The new NAHB study presents the most recent and comprehensive estimates of home building employment, including self-employed workers, by state and congressional district. NAHB Economics estimates that out of 9.6 million people working in construction in 2015, close to 3.8 million people worked in residential construction, accounting for 2.5% of the US employed civilian labor force. These numbers reflect steady... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 8:13 AM » Italy's referendum result is not another Brexit or Trump
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 8:13 AM by www.theguardian.com
    First Britain voted for Brexit. Then America voted for Trump. And now Italians have overwhelmingly voted to reject constitutional reform, leading Matteo Renzi to state he will resign as prime minister later today. It's tempting to draw parallels between the three votes. But Italy's referendum does not mark a political earthquake. Its causes are different, and its effects on domestic and international politics are likely to be contained.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.theguardian.com
  • 8:08 AM » Trump nominates Ben Carson to head HUD
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 8:08 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on Monday nominated Dr. Ben Carson to serve as secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
  • 8:03 AM » Here's what Mario Draghi and the ECB could do now Italy has voted No
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 8:03 AM by CNBC
    Expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will extend its bond-buying program have risen post-Italy's vote.
  • 8:02 AM » Poor Gretchen on Fannie and Freddie
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 8:02 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    My former co-blogger Tanta wrote several posts pointing out questionable reporting in articles by "poor Gretchen" Morgenson of the NY Times.  Tanta would have a field day with GM's article today: Trump Treasury May Mean Independence for Fannie and Freddie With an apology to Tanta (who knew far more about the mortgage market than I ever will, and was a far better writer than me), here are a few comments on the article today. Gretchen starts by quoting Steven Mnuchin, the nominee to run the Treasury Department for the next administration: "We got to get Fannie and Freddie out of government ownership," he told Fox Business. "It makes no sense that these are owned by the government and have been controlled by the government for as long as they have." Mr. Mnuchin is right. We got to get Steve in an English class, but lets focus on the substance. Is Mnuchin right? "It makes no sense that these are owned by the government" is a declarative statement without any backing. Perhaps Gretchen and Steve could study a little history. Fannie Mae was started in 1938 as a government agency to provide liquidity in the mortgage market. Over time Fannie was changed into a public-private organization, and finally into a private, for-profit, corporation with an implied government backing. This privatization has been described as "privatizing profits, and socializing losses". If something made no sense, it was a structure that gave the profits to private investors, with the risks borne by the taxpayers.  It should be obvious to all that the original privatization was a mistake. Instead of putting Fannie and Freddie into bankruptcy during the crisis - and wiping out the shareholders while putting a stranglehold on the housing market at exactly the wrong time - the government put Fannie and Freddie into conservatorship.   This kept the housing market on life support.  The taxpayers took all of the risk,...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • Fri, Dec 2 2016
  • 4:47 PM » The regulatory system 'needs to be debugged,' Blackstone co-founder Schwarzman says
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 4:47 PM by CNBC
    "That doesn't mean that all regulation is bad, but there's a certain balance," Stephen Schwarzman said Friday.
  • 4:47 PM » Zillow Forecast: Expect Case-Shiller Index to "continue to accelerate" in October
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 4:47 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Case-Shiller house price indexes for September were released Tuesday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Zillow: October Case-Shiller Forecast: Continuing to put the Recession in the Rearview According to Zillow's October Case-Shiller forecast, annual growth in the national index is expected to continue to accelerate, along with upticks in monthly growth in both smaller 10-city and 20-city indices. Sustained growth in the national index will continue to put pre-recession housing peaks in the rearview mirror, as September marked the first month in which national home prices exceeded those set prior to the recession. The September Case-Shiller national index is expected to grow 5.7 percent year-over-year and 0.8 percent month-to-month (seasonally adjusted), even with the pace of monthly growth and up from 5.5 percent annual growth pace set in September. We expect the 10-city index to grow 4.2 percent year-over-year and 0.4 percent (SA) from September. The 20-City Index is expected to grow 5 percent between October 2015 and October 2016, and rise 0.5 percent (SA) from Septmber. Zillow's October Case-Shiller forecast is shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on today's September Case-Shiller data release and the October 2016 Zillow Home Value Index . The October S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices will not be officially released until Tuesday, December 27. The year-over-year change for the 10-city and 20-city indexes will probably be about the same or slightly lower in the October report as in the September report.  The change for the National index will probably be slightly higher.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:49 PM » Fed's Tarullo warns against 'backsliding' on bank regulations
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 3:49 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. banking regulators must defend tough rules governing Wall Street and resist efforts to dilute regulations that might prevent a future financial crisis, Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo said on Friday.
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