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  • Wed, Mar 4 2015
  • 10:17 PM » Bond Returns Show Why Investors Shouldn't Fight the Central Bank
    Published Wed, Mar 04 2015 10:17 PM by Bloomberg
    Bond Returns Show Why Investors Shouldn't Fight the Central Bank Bloomberg Euro-zone government bonds returned 13 percent in the past year, data compiled by Bloomberg show, as investors correctly bet the European Central Bank would start buying the securities to head off deflation. The ECB meets Thursday and plans to begin ... and more »
  • 4:35 PM » Preview for February Employment Report
    Published Wed, Mar 04 2015 4:35 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for February. The consensus, according to Bloomberg , is for an increase of 230,000 non-farm payroll jobs in February (with a range of estimates between 200,000 and 252,000), and for the unemployment rate to decline to 5.6%. The BLS reported 257,000 jobs added in January. Here is a summary of recent data: • The ADP employment report showed an increase of 212,000 private sector payroll jobs in February. This was below expectations of 220,000 private sector payroll jobs added. The ADP report hasn't been very useful in predicting the BLS report for any one month, but in general, this suggests employment growth slightly below expectations. • The ISM manufacturing employment index  decreased in February to 51.4%. A historical correlation between the ISM manufacturing employment index and the BLS employment report for manufacturing, suggests that private sector BLS manufacturing payroll jobs declined by 10,000 in February. The ADP report indicated a 3,000 increase for manufacturing jobs in February. The ISM non-manufacturing employment index decreased in January to 56.4%. A historical correlation  between the ISM non-manufacturing employment index and the BLS employment report for non-manufacturing, suggests that private sector BLS non-manufacturing payroll jobs increased about 245,000 in February. Combined, the ISM indexes suggests employment gains of 235,000.  This suggests growth close to expectations. • Initial weekly unemployment claims averaged close to 295,000 in January, down from 298,000 in January. For the BLS reference week (includes the 12th of the month), initial claims were at 282,000; this was up from 308,000 during the reference week in January. Generally this suggests slightly fewer layoffs, seasonally adjusted, in February compared to January. • The final  February University of Michigan consumer sentiment index decreased to 95.4 from...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 4:34 PM » The US Housing Market
    Published Wed, Mar 04 2015 4:34 PM by The Big Picture
    Source: WSJ
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: The Big Picture
  • 4:34 PM » 5 Takeaways from the 2009 Fed Transcripts
    Published Wed, Mar 04 2015 4:34 PM by WSJ
    Federal Reserve officials spent 2009 worrying about the worst U.S. economic downturn they had seen in their lives, the weakness of the nascent recovery and the uncertainties surrounding their policy options.
  • 2:25 PM » Notes From 2009: Ben Bernanke Has an Impressive Passive-Aggressive Streak, and Other Things We Learned in the New Fed Transcripts
    Published Wed, Mar 04 2015 2:25 PM by rss.nytimes.com
    The transcripts from 2009 show more than just how some of the nation's top economic policy makers made their decisions.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: rss.nytimes.com
  • 2:25 PM » Key Republican Lawmaker Calls for Review of Fed Structure
    Published Wed, Mar 04 2015 2:25 PM by WSJ
    U.S. Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee Chairman Richard Shelby (R., Ala.) said Tuesday his panel will review the Federal Reserve's structure, given its broad new powers over the financial system.
  • 2:23 PM » Fed's Beige Book: Economic Activity Expanded "across most regions", Oil "declined"
    Published Wed, Mar 04 2015 2:23 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Fed's Beige Book "Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and based on information collected on or before February 23, 2015. " Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that economic activity continued to expand across most regions and sectors from early January through mid-February. Six Districts noted that the local economy expanded at a moderate pace since the prior reporting period. Activity rose modestly in Philadelphia and Cleveland, while it increased slightly in Kansas City. Dallas noted a similar pace of growth as in the previous period, while Richmond reported that activity slowed from the modest pace seen in the prior period. Boston noted that business contacts were fairly upbeat this period, notwithstanding the severe weather.... Oil and natural gas drilling declined in the Cleveland, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts. In contrast, the Richmond District reported that natural gas production was unchanged. The number of drilling rigs for oil and natural gas declined sharply in the Cleveland, Minneapolis, and Kansas City Districts. Oil and gas producers in the Cleveland, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts anticipate cuts in capital expenditures during 2015. Coal production was unchanged in both the Cleveland and Richmond Districts, while it increased modestly in the St. Louis District. Both the Cleveland and Richmond Districts reported lower coal prices. And on real estate: Residential real estate conditions were mixed across the Districts. Home sales and prices increased in most Districts; construction activity was mixed, with some Districts reporting disruptions due to severe weather. Residential sales increased in Boston, Philadelphia, Richmond, St. Louis, Dallas, and San Francisco. Sales fell in Cleveland and Kansas City. Contacts in New York, Philadelphia, and Cleveland partially attributed lower construction to inclement weather conditions. Contacts in Boston noted low levels of inventory due, in part...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:14 PM » This clause can keep you from accessing homeowners insurance claim money
    Published Wed, Mar 04 2015 1:14 PM by Market Watch
    A little-known clause in most homeowner insurance polices can cause weeks or months of hassle when it comes to getting damage claims paid.
  • 1:13 PM » How Mortgage Finance Affects the Urban Landscape
    Published Wed, Mar 04 2015 1:13 PM by NY Fed
    Sewin Chan, Andrew F. Haughwout, and Joseph Tracy. How Mortgage Finance Affects the Urban Landscape. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports Staff Report Number 713, February 2015.
  • 1:13 PM » 2009 Was the Height of the Storm for the Fed
    Published Wed, Mar 04 2015 1:13 PM by Bloomberg
    2009 Was the Height of the Storm for the Fed Bloomberg March 4 -- Ben S. Bernanke knew the Federal Reserve was passing the point of no return in March 2009, when it dramatically increased bond purchases to battle the severest recession since the Great Depression. Bloomberg's Michael McKee reports on ...
  • 1:13 PM » Fed struggled with 2009 bailouts, bond-buying: transcripts
    Published Wed, Mar 04 2015 1:13 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve struggled with the message being sent by its involvement in bank bailouts in 2009 and worried about its implementation of a bond-buying program aimed at easing the financial crisis, according to transcripts released by the U.S. central bank on Wednesday.
  • 10:56 AM » Fed's Evans Says Low Inflation Is A Bit of a Puzzle
    Published Wed, Mar 04 2015 10:56 AM by WSJ
    Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said Wednesday that low inflation remains a bit of a puzzle as the economy shows momentum.
  • 10:56 AM » David Zervos: Here's Who's Buying all That Debt at Negative Yields - Bloomberg
    Published Wed, Mar 04 2015 10:56 AM by Bloomberg
    David Zervos: Here's Who's Buying all That Debt at Negative Yields Bloomberg David Zervos at Jefferies takes a look at negative yielding European sovereign debt in a note sent to clients today. In the note he asks what seems like an obvious question: "Who in their right mind would ever buy this many negative yielding bonds? Or, put ...
  • 10:54 AM » Yellen in June 2009: Sluggish Recovery, Low inflation for "few years"
    Published Wed, Mar 04 2015 10:54 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Federal Reserve released the transcripts for the 2009 FOMC meetings today. Here is SF Fed President Janet Yellen in June 2009 : Thank you, Mr. Chairman. At our meeting in late April, we had begun to see hopeful signs of impending economic recovery, and subsequent economic and financial developments have strengthened the view that the economy is bottoming out. Even so, the outlook over the next several years remains disturbing. My modal forecast shows economic growth resuming next quarter, but I expect the recovery to be quite gradual . The output and employment gaps are, at a minimum, quite large, so it will take a long time to regain full employment under current monetary and fiscal policy settings. Although downside risks have diminished, I remain concerned that the recovery is still fragile. ... And, of course, labor markets continue to deteriorate badly. It's a sign of how bad things really are that near euphoria broke out with the announcement of 345,000 nonfarm jobs lost in May. The unemployment rate is soaring month by month, and, even worse, it appears to understate the true extent of the deterioration, given the unusually high incidence of permanent, as opposed to temporary, layoffs, and the unprecedented increase in involuntary part-time work. ... My forecasts for output and employment are similar to the Greenbook's, so I won't go into the details. I do want to emphasize that I anticipate a rather sluggish recovery, not the rapid V-shaped recovery we have frequently seen following deep recessions in the past. The process of balance sheet repair that households and financial institutions are undergoing will result in subdued spending for an extended period , and monetary policies here and abroad are not able to play as big a role as usual in promoting recovery because of the constraint of the zero lower bound on short-term interest rates. ... ven under the typical recovery simulation, which has much stronger growth than in the baseline, the unemployment...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:54 AM » Yellen during crisis; Things are so bad people are 'breaking into their piggybanks'
    Published Wed, Mar 04 2015 10:54 AM by CNBC
    Then-Chairman Ben Bernanke oversaw the efforts to manage the global financial crisis's broader economic effects, leading the ambitious buying spree of mortgage-backed securities officially launched in December 2008. "The global economy will recover, but the timing and strength of the recovery are highly uncertain," Bernanke said in a speech at the London...
  • 10:54 AM » ISM non-manufacturing index hits 56.9 in Feb vs. 56.5 estimate
    Published Wed, Mar 04 2015 10:54 AM by CNBC
    This is a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters forecast the ISM non-manufacturing index to hit 56.5 for the month of February.
  • 9:00 AM » 5 Points to Watch During the ECB's March Meeting
    Published Wed, Mar 04 2015 9:00 AM by WSJ
    Mario Draghi started 2015 with a bang by unveiling a €1 trillion ($1.1 trillion)-plus asset purchase program, mostly government bonds, at the European Central Bank's first meeting on Jan. 22. Act Two won't be quite as dramatic, and no new stimulus measures are expected. But the ECB's second policy meeting of the year, on Thursday in Cyprus, will be significant nonetheless. Here are five things to look for Thursday.
  • 9:00 AM » Treasuries Rise as U.S. Companies Add Fewer Jobs Than Forecast - Bloomberg
    Published Wed, Mar 04 2015 9:00 AM by Bloomberg
    Treasuries Rise as U.S. Companies Add Fewer Jobs Than Forecast Bloomberg (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries rose as a private report showed U.S. companies added fewer jobs in February than forecast as the Federal Reserve debates raising interest rates. Benchmark 10-year note yields traded down from the highest level in more than a ...
  • 9:00 AM » ADP: Private Employment increased 212,000 in February
    Published Wed, Mar 04 2015 9:00 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 212,000 jobs from January to February according to the February ADP National Employment Report®. ... The report, which is derived from ADP's actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. ... Goods-producing employment rose by 31,000 jobs in February, down from 45,000 jobs gained in January. The construction industry added 31,000 jobs, the same number as last month. Meanwhile, manufacturing added 3,000 jobs in February, well below January's 15,000. Service-providing employment rose by 181,000 jobs in February, down from 206,000 in January. ... Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, said, "Job growth is strong, but slowing from the torrid pace of recent months. Job gains remain broad-based, although the collapse in oil prices has begun to weigh on energy-related employment. At the current pace of growth, the economy will return to full employment by mid-2016." This was below the consensus forecast for 220,000 private sector jobs added in the ADP report.  The BLS report for February will be released on Friday and the consensus is for 230,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in February.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:00 AM » Where Should You Move for a Decent Job Market and Affordable Housing?
    Published Wed, Mar 04 2015 9:00 AM by WSJ
    There are cities out there with decent job growth and affordable housing. They're not on either coast.
  • 9:00 AM » Housing market has long way to go: Lennar CEO
    Published Wed, Mar 04 2015 9:00 AM by CNBC
    The U.S. housing market still has a long way to go in order to fully recover from the 2008 financial crisis, Lennar CEO Stuart Miller said Wednesday.
  • 8:59 AM » MBA: Mortgage Applications Little Changed in Latest Weekly Survey
    Published Wed, Mar 04 2015 8:59 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Little Changed in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 0.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 27, 2015. ... The Refinance Index increased 1 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.2 percent from one week earlier . ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) decreased to 3.96 percent from 3.99 percent , with points decreasing to 0.30 from 0.33 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows the refinance index. 2014 was the lowest year for refinance activity since year 2000. 2015 will probably see more refinance activity than in 2014, but not a large refinance boom. The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.   According to the MBA, the unadjusted purchase index is essentially unchanged from a year ago.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • Tue, Mar 3 2015
  • 2:48 PM » Office Demand Exceeding New Supply
    Published Tue, Mar 03 2015 2:48 PM by WSJ
    The rate of business expansion is far outpacing the rate of new office building development, according to a new report from CBRE Group Inc.
  • 2:48 PM » Consumer spending is due for a pop
    Published Tue, Mar 03 2015 2:48 PM by CNBC
    The consensus among economists on Wall Street and at the Federal Reserve is that consumer spending will begin to increase in the coming months.
  • 2:46 PM » Retail Landlords Are the Least Optimistic
    Published Tue, Mar 03 2015 2:46 PM by WSJ
    Investors in retail buildings are the least optimistic commercial property owners.
  • 2:37 PM » Actavis stuns market with US$21bn mega-bond
    Published Tue, Mar 03 2015 2:37 PM by www.ubs.wallst.com
    Pharma giant Actavis amassed more than US$90bn of orders for its mega-deal on Tuesday, as investors shrugged off the company's credit ratings to get a piece of the second-largest bond ever. The US$21bn trade locked in low funding rates for Actavis, no mean feat for an acquisition-minded company hovering just one credit rating above junk status.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.ubs.wallst.com
  • 1:52 PM » Property Tax Rates Highest for Homeowners Who Have Owned Between Five and 15 Years, Own High-End or Low-End Homes
    Published Tue, Mar 03 2015 1:52 PM by RealtyTrac
    March 3, 2015 - RealtyTrac® (www.realtytrac.com), the nation's leading source for comprehensive housing data, today released a its first-ever U.S. Property Tax Rates Report for 2014, which provides average property taxes and effective property tax rates for single family homes in more than 1,000 counties nationwide as well as by state and metropolitan statistical area.
  • 12:00 PM » JPMorgan to pay $50 million over improper mortgage practices: DOJ
    Published Tue, Mar 03 2015 12:00 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase will pay $50 million as part of a national settlement agreement to compensate homeowners in bankruptcy over the use of robo-signing and other improper practices, the Department of Justice said on Tuesday.
  • 12:00 PM » Are markets ready for a rate hike?
    Published Tue, Mar 03 2015 12:00 PM by CNBC
    Rick Rieder, Jamie Dinan and Kyle Bass all think Janet Yellen is finally going to move rates in June.
  • 10:33 AM » Real Estate Crowdfunding Seen Topping $2.5 Billion in '15
    Published Tue, Mar 03 2015 10:33 AM by Bloomberg
    Real Estate Crowdfunding Seen Topping $2.5 Billion in '15 Bloomberg (Bloomberg) -- Crowdfunding for real estate is likely to jump to $2.57 billion worldwide this year, two and a half times the total in 2014, as more people become comfortable with the investing model, research company Massolution said. Property crowdfunding ... and more »
  • 10:32 AM » CoreLogic: House Prices up 5.7% Year-over-year in January
    Published Tue, Mar 03 2015 10:32 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for January . The recent Case-Shiller index release was for December. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: Home Prices Up 5 Percent Year Over Year for December 2014 CoreLogic® ... today released its January 2015 CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI®) which shows that home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 5.7 percent in January 2015 compared to January 2014 . This change represents 35 months of consecutive year-over-year increases in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased by 1.1 percent in January 2015 compared to December 2014. Including distressed sales, 27 states and the District of Columbia are at or within 10 percent of their peak. Four states, New York (+5.6), Wyoming (+8.3 percent), Texas (+8.3 percent) and Colorado (+9.1 percent), reached new highs in the home price index since January 1976 when the index starts. Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 5.6 percent in January 2015 compared to January 2014 and increased 1.4 percent month over month compared to December 2014. ... " We continue to see a strong and progressive uptick in home prices as we enter 2015 . We project home prices will continue to rise throughout the year and into 2016," said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. " A dearth of supply in many parts of the country is a big factor driving up prices . Many homeowners have taken advantage of low rates to refinance their homes, and until we see sustained increases in income levels and employment they could be hunkered down so supplies may remain tight. Demand has picked up as low mortgage rates and the cut in the FHA annual insurance premium reduce monthly payments for prospective homebuyers." emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:32 AM » Freddie Mac Executes First 2015 Sale of Seriously Delinquent Loans From Its Investment Portfolio
    Published Tue, Mar 03 2015 10:32 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Executes First 2015 Sale of Seriously Delinquent Loans From Its Investment Portfolio
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 9:12 AM » Ready, Fire, Aim … Let's Reform the Fed
    Published Tue, Mar 03 2015 9:12 AM by blogs.wsj.com
    Wall Street Journal (blog) Grand Central: Ready, Fire, Aim Let's Reform the Fed Wall Street Journal (blog) -By Jon Hilsenrath . MORNING MINUTES: KEY DEVELOPMENTS AROUND THE WORLD. Foreign Banks Brace for Fed Stress Test. The Federal Reserve's growing scrutiny of global banks has set off a scramble among foreign firms as they staff up and ...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: blogs.wsj.com
  • 9:00 AM » JPMorgan Chase tilts towards consumer
    Published Tue, Mar 03 2015 9:00 AM by CNBC
    Investment banks are looking to grow their consumer side. New York Times reports.
  • 8:59 AM » Oil prices rise as global markets firm, dollar comes off highs
    Published Tue, Mar 03 2015 8:59 AM by Reuters
    SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Brent crude futures rose above $60 a barrel on Tuesday, after a sharp drop in the previous session on record U.S. stocks, as firm Asian markets supported prices.
  • 8:59 AM » Greece's Bailout Extension No Panacea for Struggling Bond Market
    Published Tue, Mar 03 2015 8:59 AM by Bloomberg
    Greece's Bailout Extension No Panacea for Struggling Bond Market Bloomberg (Bloomberg) -- One week after euro-area finance ministers agreed to extend Greece's bailout, the nation's government bonds are showing no sign of moving above where they were when the anti-austerity Syriza party was elected. Greek 10-year securities ...
  • Mon, Mar 2 2015
  • 8:31 PM » Tuesday: February Auto Sales
    Published Mon, Mar 02 2015 8:31 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    On mortgage rates from Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Back up to 3.875 Percent What had been 3.75% on Friday is now 3.875% in terms of the most prevalent conventional 30yr fixed rates for top tier scenarios. CR Note: The Ten Year yield increased to 2.08% today from 2.00% on Friday. Tuesday: • All day, Light vehicle sales for February. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to increase to 16.7 million SAAR in February from 16.6 million in January (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). • At 8:15 PM, Speech, Fed Chair Janet L. Yellen , Bank Regulation and Supervision, At the Citizens Budget Commission's Annual Awards Dinner, New York, New York
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:31 PM » A Blizzard of Housing Data, but the Forecast Is Sunny
    Published Mon, Mar 02 2015 8:31 PM by www.realtor.com
    There was a blizzard of housing reports last week, but the data point to a hotter spring market, just around the corner. The post A Blizzard of Housing Data, but the Forecast Is Sunny appeared first on Top News .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 8:30 PM » Google's New Mortgage Calculator Is a Good—If Simple—Start
    Published Mon, Mar 02 2015 8:30 PM by www.realtor.com
    Google's new mortgage calculator is simple, solid-and a good illustration of why we always recommend speaking IRL to a professional. The post Google’s New Mortgage Calculator Is a Good-If Simple-Start appeared first on Top News .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 8:30 PM » Ocwen Seeks Options, Sees Goodwill Charge Up to $420 Million
    Published Mon, Mar 02 2015 8:30 PM by Bloomberg
    Ocwen Seeks Options, Sees Goodwill Charge Up to $420 Million Bloomberg (Bloomberg) -- Ocwen Financial Corp. recorded an additional $50 million expense tied to a settlement with New York's financial regulator and expects to take a non-cash goodwill charge of as much as $420 million in the fourth quarter. The mortgage servicer ... and more »
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More From MND

Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 3.79%
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  • 15 Yr FRM 3.08%
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  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.67%
MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 108-28 (0-03)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 111-03 (-0-00)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 112-17 (0-01)
Recent Housing Data:
  • Mortgage Apps -1.26%
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  • Refinance Index -2.94%
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  • Purchase Index 1.88%