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  • Wed, Jan 7 2015
  • 10:06 AM » Deflation Threat Level Rises for ECB
    Published Wed, Jan 07 2015 10:06 AM by WSJ
    The Wall Street Journal's Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Wednesday, January 7, 2015. Paul Hannon considers the options for the ECB as eurozone prices fall for the first time in over five years.
  • 9:41 AM » US international trade deficit at $39B
    Published Wed, Jan 07 2015 9:41 AM by CNBC
    The U.S. international trade deficit was expected to narrow to $42.0 billion in November from $43.4 billion reported the previous month.
  • 8:21 AM » ADP: Private Employment increased 241,000 in December
    Published Wed, Jan 07 2015 8:21 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 241,000 jobs from November to December according to the December ADP National Employment Report®. ... The report, which is derived from ADP's actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. ... Goods-producing employment rose by 46,000 jobs in December, up from 40,000 jobs gained in November. The construction industry added 23,000 jobs, up from last month's gain of 20,000. Meanwhile, manufacturing added 26,000 jobs in December, well above November's 16,000 and the second highest monthly total of 2014 in that sector. Service-providing employment rose by 194,000 jobs in December, up from 187,000 in November. ... Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, said, "The job market continues to power forward. Businesses across all industries and sizes are adding to payrolls. At the current pace of job growth, the economy will be back to full employment by this time next year." This was above the consensus forecast for 223,000 private sector jobs added in the ADP report.  The BLS report for December will be released on Friday and the consensus is for 240,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in December.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:20 AM » Mortgage applications take unusually big break
    Published Wed, Jan 07 2015 8:20 AM by CNBC
    The holiday season is historically slow in the mortgage business, but this time around it was particularly quiet.
  • 8:20 AM » 5 Things to Watch in the Fed's December Minutes
    Published Wed, Jan 07 2015 8:20 AM by WSJ
    The Federal Reserve on Wednesday releases minutes of its Dec. 16-17 meeting, held before a fresh round of market turbulence pushed oil prices below $50 a barrel, global bond yields to fresh lows and the U.S. dollar to new highs.
  • Tue, Jan 6 2015
  • 10:54 PM » Wednesday: ADP Employment, Trade Deficit, FOMC Minutes
    Published Tue, Jan 06 2015 10:54 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    For fun, here are Byron Wien's Ten Surprises for 2015 . Here are a few: 1. The Federal Reserve finally raises short-term interest rates, well before the middle of the year, encouraged by the improving employment data and strong Gross Domestic Product growth. The timing proves faulty, however, as the momentum of the economy has begun to flag and a short-term slowdown has started. The end of monetary accommodation and rising rates precipitate a correction in equities. Long-term Treasury rates stay where they started and the yield curve flattens. [CR Note: I doubt the Fed will raise rates "well before the middle of the year"] 3. The year-end 2014 rally in United States equities continues as the market rises for a strong performance in 2015. A growing economy, fueled by housing and capital spending and favorable earnings, enables the Standard & Poor's 500 to increase 15% during the year, outperforming equities in most major industrialized countries throughout the world. 4. Mario Draghi finally begins to expand the balance sheet of the European Central Bank aggressively by buying sovereign debt, mortgages and corporate bonds. In spite of this expansion, Europe falls back into a serious recession. Germany is particularly weak as reduced demand from various trading partners has a major impact on its exports. The European policy makers fail to embrace the one option, fiscal spending, that could turn the economy around, and European stocks decline. Politically, Europe moves dangerously toward the right. [CR Note: Unfortunately probably close.] 8. Brent slips into the $40s. The low price of crude oil, which continues throughout the first part of the year, has a major impact on Russia. A peace settlement with Ukraine is signed, giving Eastern Ukraine substantial autonomy but guaranteeing the sovereignty of the rest of the country. President Putin seems to be trying to win back the respect of the international community as the country reels from its economic...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:04 PM » Euro Slides to Nine-Year Low on QE Bets Before Inflation Report - Bloomberg
    Published Tue, Jan 06 2015 9:04 PM by Bloomberg
    Euro Slides to Nine-Year Low on QE Bets Before Inflation Report Bloomberg The euro dropped to a nine-year low versus the dollar amid speculation European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will begin quantitative easing as early as this month to combat the risk of deflation. The single currency slid to the weakest in two months ...
  • 5:12 PM » Capitol Report: Apartment glut may tame rising rents
    Published Tue, Jan 06 2015 5:12 PM by Market Watch
    Home builders and investors have poured money into so many new rental units that tenants may see rent growth slow in the near future.
  • 5:12 PM » The market has spoken on bond yields
    Published Tue, Jan 06 2015 5:12 PM by CNBC
    Another day of LOWS: low oil, low euro, and low bond yields.
  • 4:27 PM » Germany, France take calculated risk with Grexit talk
    Published Tue, Jan 06 2015 4:27 PM by Reuters
    BERLIN/PARIS (Reuters) - Evoking a possible Greek exit from the euro zone, Germany and France are taking a coordinated and calculated risk in the hope of averting a leftist victory in Greece's general election on Jan. 25.
  • 4:27 PM » Bill Gross Calls it: 2015 Is Going to Be Terrible - Bloomberg
    Published Tue, Jan 06 2015 4:27 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Bill Gross Calls it: 2015 Is Going to Be Terrible Bloomberg Bill Gross, bond king, ousted executive, self-styled poet of the markets, has a bold, depressing prediction for 2015, and he's not couching it in any of his usual metaphor: "The good times are over," he wrote in his January investment outlook note. By the end of ...
  • 4:23 PM » Smaller Cities Led Way in Rent Increases in 2014
    Published Tue, Jan 06 2015 4:23 PM by WSJ
    The cost to rent an apartment jumped in 2014 for the fifth consecutive year as strong demand and short supply left vacancies at historically low levels.
  • 2:37 PM » Stock market sell-off: Investors run to bonds
    Published Tue, Jan 06 2015 2:37 PM by CNN
    Need more proof the stock market is freaking out? Just look at bonds.
  • 2:36 PM » Office Vacancy Rate and Office Investment
    Published Tue, Jan 06 2015 2:36 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Yesterday I noted that Reis reported the office vacancy rate declined to 16.7% in Q4 from 16.8% in Q3. A key question is when will new office investment increase significantly. Investment has been increasing - and adding to GDP - but investment is still very low. The following graph shows the office vacancy rate and office investment as a percent of GDP. Note: Office investment also includes improvements. Here is Reis Senior Economist Ryan Severino's office forecast for 2015: "2014 ended with lots of good news and optimistic data, for both the macroeconomy and the office market. GDP growth, labor market growth, net absorption, and vacancy are all trending in the right direction and at a faster pace over time. Barring some idiosyncratic shock, there is no reason to believe that these trends will not persist in 2015 while construction should remain in check due to relatively weak fundamentals in many markets, even as speculative development slowly returns to the market in stronger metro areas. Therefore, we are not only forecasting stronger rent growth for 2015 than 2014, but vacancy compression should slowly begin to accelerate and the potential exists for the market to outperform our expectations if the economy is even stronger than currently forecast. This is the most sanguine that we have been about the economy and the office market since before the recession." Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the office vacancy rate starting in 1980 (prior to 1999 the data is annual). Back in the early '80s, there was overbuilding in the office sector even as the vacancy rate was rising. This was due to the very loose lending that led to the S&L crisis. In the '90s, office investment picked up as the vacancy rate fell. Following the bursting of the stock bubble, the vacancy rate increased sharply and office investment declined. During the housing bubble, office investment started to increase even before the vacancy rate had fallen below...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:38 PM » A Few Trades Moving $12 Trillion in Bonds Points to Volatile '15 - Bloomberg
    Published Tue, Jan 06 2015 1:38 PM by Bloomberg
    A Few Trades Moving $12 Trillion in Bonds Points to Volatile '15 Bloomberg Bond markets are once again being plagued by a drop in trading. While traders are just returning from vacations and being less active than usual, prices are swinging. Yields on sovereign debt globally have plunged to the lowest ever, with rates on 30-year ...
  • 1:35 PM » FHA: Time to stop overcharging today's borrowers for yesterday's mistakes
    Published Tue, Jan 06 2015 1:35 PM by Google News
    The federal government's home mortgage insurance program is finally back in the black, having improved materially over the past year, yet its insurance premiums remain at record-high levels. Our analysis indicates that that Federal Housing Administration (FHA) can significantly lower its premiums-charging current borrowers more appropriately for their risks-while continuing to build the necessary reserves […]
  • 12:33 PM » Will there be too many apartments?
    Published Tue, Jan 06 2015 12:33 PM by CNBC
    Landlords are still getting higher rents, but will the apartment building boom spoil the party?
  • 12:33 PM » WTI falls below $49 to new 5-1/2-year low
    Published Tue, Jan 06 2015 12:33 PM by CNBC
    Oil prices sank to fresh 5-1/2-year lows extending losses after a 5 percent plunge in the previous session.
  • 12:32 PM » Another Strong Year for Freddie Mac Multifamily Securities
    Published Tue, Jan 06 2015 12:32 PM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Another Strong Year for Freddie Mac Multifamily Securities
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 11:31 AM » Congress should help small communities by amending the Dodd-Frank Act
    Published Tue, Jan 06 2015 11:31 AM by www.aei.org
    What will Republicans do with both houses of Congress in 2015? Republicans - and a few Democrats - have expressed interest in taking a new look at the Dodd-Frank Act, the landmark 2010 legislation that completely altered the playing field for financial services. The fact that the year-end continuing resolution, which passed with a modicum [ ...]
  • 10:10 AM » ISM service index falls more than expected
    Published Tue, Jan 06 2015 10:10 AM by CNBC
    The Institute for Supply Management services index for December missed analyst forecasts.
  • 8:46 AM » Bond yields tighten as investors flee to safety
    Published Tue, Jan 06 2015 8:46 AM by CNBC
    The interest rate on the U.S. government's 10-year Treasury fell below 2 percent on Tuesday morning for the first time since mid-October.
  • 8:45 AM » Here's why European QE may not work
    Published Tue, Jan 06 2015 8:45 AM by CNBC
    Analysts are mulling the likelihood of the ECB announcing a start to sovereign bond purchases this month - and debating whether they would even work.
  • Mon, Jan 5 2015
  • 11:38 PM » Volatility storm not over, analysts say
    Published Mon, Jan 05 2015 11:38 PM by CNBC
    Two market headwinds - Europe and falling oil prices - turned gale force Monday, and analysts expect the volatility to continue.
  • 4:13 PM » ECB Will Find It Near Impossible to Lift Demand, Summers Says - Bloomberg
    Published Mon, Jan 05 2015 4:13 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg ECB Will Find It Near Impossible to Lift Demand, Summers Says Bloomberg The European Central Bank will find it "very difficult to impossible" to lift demand in the euro area through a more aggressive monetary policy, though it should pursue one anyway, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said. There isn't much cost ...
  • 2:25 PM » CFPB issues second appropriations report
    Published Mon, Jan 05 2015 2:25 PM by www.cfpbmonitor.com
    Barbara S. Mishkin The CFPB has issued its second report entitled "Report of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Pursuant to Section 1017(e)(4) of the Dodd-Frank Act." That Dodd-Frank section requires the CFPB's Director to submit an annual report to the House and Senate Committees on Appropriations "regarding the financial operating plans and forecasts of the Director, the financial... More >
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.cfpbmonitor.com
  • 2:24 PM » Capitol Report: Obama's speech on housing could move shares of Fannie, Freddie
    Published Mon, Jan 05 2015 2:24 PM by Market Watch
    Shares of federally controlled mortgage-finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may move on a Thursday speech by President Obama about the housing market.
  • 2:24 PM » Fed might not raise rates in 2015: Gross
    Published Mon, Jan 05 2015 2:24 PM by Reuters
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve could find itself challenged to raise U.S. interest rates this year as global growth remains sluggish and inflation subdued, closely watched bond investor Bill Gross said on Monday.
  • 12:00 PM » Housing In 2015: Four Reasons For Optimism (And One For Worry)
    Published Mon, Jan 05 2015 12:00 PM by www.npr.org
    Increased hiring and high rents could make this a banner year for homebuying. But a looming decision by the Federal Reserve could scare off potential buyers and disrupt the housing recovery.
  • 12:00 PM » Fed's Williams sees gradual pace of tightening
    Published Mon, Jan 05 2015 12:00 PM by Market Watch
    BOSTON (MarketWatch) - The pace of upcoming rate hikes should be "pretty gradual" over the next few years, said John Williams, the president of the San Francisco Fed, on Monday. In a sit down with reporters on the sidelines of the American Economic Association annual meeting, Williams said his preference for a slow tightening pace reflects an economy that needs accommodative monetary policy to have strong growth. Another factor is that, over many years, longer-term real interest rates globally are likely to be much lower than they were in the 1980s and 1990s, he added. Williams said he thinks a rate hike this year will be appropriate, but added he is in "no rush" to tighten. He said that mid-2015 is a reasonable guess of when the Fed will first ask "should we do it now or wait a little longer." Williams, a close ally of Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, will be a voting member of the Fed policy committee this year.
  • 10:16 AM » Reis: Office Vacancy Rate declined in Q4 to 16.7%
    Published Mon, Jan 05 2015 10:16 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Reis released their Q4 2014 Office Vacancy survey this morning. Reis reported that the office vacancy rate declined in Q4 to 16.7% from 16.8% in Q3 2014. This is down from 16.9% in Q4 2013, and down from the cycle peak of 17.6%. From Bloomberg: U.S. Office-Occupancy Gains Jump to a Seven-Year High Occupied office space increased by a net 10.97 million square feet (1 million square meters) during the last three months of the year, the most since the third quarter of 2007, according to property-research firm Reis Inc. The measure, known as net absorption, jumped 28 percent in 2014 to 32.5 million square feet, also a seven-year high. ... The nationwide vacancy rate at the end of the year was 16.7 percent, the lowest since the third quarter of 2009 and down from 16.9 percent in 2013. ... "As long as we don't get a random shock to the economy, and labor growth continues, vacancies should fall and rents should rise faster in 2015," [Ryan Severino, Reis senior economist] said. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the office vacancy rate starting in 1980 (prior to 1999 the data is annual). Reis reported the vacancy rate was at 16.7% in Q4, down from 16.9% in Q4 2014. The vacancy rate peaked in this cycle at 17.6% in Q3 and Q4 2010, and Q1 2011. Net absorption is picking up, but there will not be a significant pickup in new construction until the vacancy rate falls much further. Office vacancy data courtesy of Reis .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:04 AM » SunTrust to Have $145 Million Mortgage-Related Legal Expense - Bloomberg
    Published Mon, Jan 05 2015 9:04 AM by Bloomberg
    SunTrust to Have $145 Million Mortgage-Related Legal Expense Bloomberg SunTrust Banks Inc., Georgia's largest lender, said fourth-quarter results will include a $145 million legal-provision expense tied to mortgage matters. The provision will cost 17 cents a share, the Atlanta-based company said today in a regulatory filing.
  • 9:04 AM » U.S. Consumer Spending Strong, Mostly Unchanged in December
    Published Mon, Jan 05 2015 9:04 AM by www.gallup.com
    U.S. consumers' average daily spending was $98 in December, matching the upper parameters of the measure since 2008. While continuing to be relatively strong, it is similar to the $95 found in November and the $96 in December 2013.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.gallup.com
  • 9:03 AM » From Stalwarts, to Comeback Kids and Sleepers, Redfin Names Six Housing Market Personas for 2015
    Published Mon, Jan 05 2015 9:03 AM by blog.redfin.com
    Redfin's expectations for the 2015 housing market are identified through these six housing personas that we think will characterize the market this year. Read More The post From Stalwarts, to Comeback Kids and Sleepers, Redfin Names Six Housing Market Personas for 2015 appeared first on Redfin Real Estate Blog .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: blog.redfin.com
  • 9:03 AM » Five Things To Watch In Housing In 2015
    Published Mon, Jan 05 2015 9:03 AM by WSJ
    The housing market in 2014 put to bed the idea that the sector might see more of a V-shaped recovery. What does 2015 have in store? Here are five areas to watch.
  • 8:54 AM » RBS Said Settling Mortgage Probe as Early as This Quarter - Bloomberg
    Published Mon, Jan 05 2015 8:54 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg RBS Said Settling Mortgage Probe as Early as This Quarter Bloomberg Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc could pay a fine to settle claims of misconduct in its handling of U.S. mortgage securities as early as this quarter, a person with knowledge of the matter said. The lender is bracing to settle Federal Housing Finance Agency ... and more »
  • 8:54 AM » Young Home Buyers Return to U.S. as Economy Accelerates - Bloomberg
    Published Mon, Jan 05 2015 8:54 AM by Bloomberg
    Young Home Buyers Return to U.S. as Economy Accelerates Bloomberg After Damien and Tina Bucci were approved for a mortgage in 2012, they decided they couldn't afford the biggest purchase of their lives without greater confidence in the U.S. economy. Next month, they will close on their first home -- a four-bedroom Colonial ...
  • Sun, Jan 4 2015
  • 9:52 PM » Minneapolis Fed's Kocherlakota Opposes Policy Rule to Decide U.S. Monetary Policy
    Published Sun, Jan 04 2015 9:52 PM by WSJ
    The Federal Reserve should have discretion in setting monetary policy and shouldn't follow a formal policy rule, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota said Sunday.
  • 9:50 PM » Euro Drops to Lowest Since March 2006 as ECB Splitting From Fed - Bloomberg
    Published Sun, Jan 04 2015 9:50 PM by Bloomberg
    Euro Drops to Lowest Since March 2006 as ECB Splitting From Fed Bloomberg The euro slumped to the weakest in almost nine years after the European Central Bank signaled it will embark on large-scale government-bond purchases as the Federal Reserve moves closer to raising interest rates. The 19-nation common currency ... and more »
  • 9:50 PM » All eyes on Berlin as ECB readies bond-buying scheme
    Published Sun, Jan 04 2015 9:50 PM by Reuters
    BERLIN (Reuters) - In August 2012, during a visit to Canada, German Chancellor Angela Merkel swept aside doubts about her support for Mario Draghi and his promise, weeks before, to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro.
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