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  • Mon, Apr 6 2015
  • 10:22 AM » The Simple Reason Mohamed El-Erian Has Most of His Money in Cash
    Published Mon, Apr 06 2015 10:22 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg The Simple Reason Mohamed El-Erian Has Most of His Money in Cash Bloomberg In an interview with the Orange County Register, Mohamed El-Erian was asked about everything from life after Pimco to where he is currently putting most of his money. Rather than putting most his money in stocks or bonds, El-Erian reveals that most of it is ...
  • 8:47 AM » Black Knight February Mortgage Monitor: Foreclosure Rate still "175 percent above pre-crisis norms"
    Published Mon, Apr 06 2015 8:47 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Black Knight Financial Services (BKFS) released their Mortgage Monitor report for February today. According to BKFS, 5.36% of mortgages were delinquent in February, down from 5.56% in January. BKFS reported that 1.58% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 2.22% in February 2014. This gives a total of 6.94% delinquent or in foreclosure. It breaks down as: • 1,646,000 properties that are 30 or more days, and less than 90 days past due, but not in foreclosure. • 1,067,000 properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in foreclosure. • 800,000 loans in foreclosure process. For a total of ??3,512,000 loans delinquent or in foreclosure in February. This is down from 4,106,000 in February 2014. Click on graph for larger image. From Black Knight: Delinquency and foreclosure inventories continue to trend towards pre-crisis norms February's delinquency rate, while still 17 percent above the pre-crisis norm of 4.6 percent, was down 49 percent from its January 2010 peak of 10.6 percent At 1.58 percent, the foreclosure rate remained 175 percent above precrisis norms, but was still down 63 percent from its October 2011 peak Also from Black Knight: Today, the Data and Analytics division of Black Knight Financial Services released its latest Mortgage Monitor Report, based on data as of the end of February 2015. Black Knight revisited its periodic review of potential refinance candidates, looking at broad-based eligibility criteria, and found that in light of recent mortgage interest rate decreases, the population of potential refinance candidates currently sits at 7.1 million. However, according to Trey Barnes, Black Knight's senior vice president of Loan Data Products, this number has the potential to decline should rates climb, even marginally. "Black Knight looked at the population of borrowers whose current interest rates - as well as credit scores and loan-to-value ratios - mark them as good candidates for refinancing," said Barnes...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • Sun, Apr 5 2015
  • 11:15 PM » It's not just you: Americans are actually still getting poorer
    Published Sun, Apr 05 2015 11:15 PM by Washington Post
    The rich are still getting richer, and the poor are still getting poorer, federal data released Thursday suggests. Accounting for taxes, though, everyone's getting poorer, especially the rich.The average American household's income declined for a second year in a row, the data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show, down 0.9 percent to $64,432. The wealthiest fifth of Americans were an exception, as their incomes increased by 0.9 percent. Among the poorest fifth, by contrast, incomes declined by 3.5 percent.Read full article >>
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Washington Post
  • 11:08 PM » Employment Graphs: Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education, Construction Employment
    Published Sun, Apr 05 2015 11:08 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    By request, a few more employment graphs ... Here are the previous posts on the employment report: • March Employment Report: 126,000 Jobs, 5.5% Unemployment Rate • Employment Report Comments and Graphs Duration of Unemployment This graph shows the duration of unemployment as a percent of the civilian labor force. The graph shows the number of unemployed in four categories: less than 5 week, 6 to 14 weeks, 15 to 26 weeks, and 27 weeks or more. The general trend is down for all categories, and the "less than 5 weeks", "6 to 14 weeks" and "15 to 26 weeks" are all close to normal levels.  The long term unemployed is less than 1.7% of the labor force - the lowest since December 2008 - however the number (and percent) of long term unemployed remains elevated. Unemployment by Education This graph shows the unemployment rate by four levels of education (all groups are 25 years and older). Unfortunately this data only goes back to 1992 and only includes one previous recession (the stock / tech bust in 2001). Clearly education matters with regards to the unemployment rate - and it appears all four groups are generally trending down. Although education matters for the unemployment rate, it doesn't appear to matter as far as finding new employment. Note: This says nothing about the quality of jobs - as an example, a college graduate working at minimum wage would be considered "employed". Construction Employment This graph shows total construction employment as reported by the BLS (not just residential). Since construction employment bottomed in January 2011, construction payrolls have increased by 912 thousand. Construction employment is still far below the bubble peak - and below the level in the late '90s. Diffusion Indexes  The BLS diffusion index for total private employment was at 61.4 in March, down from 65.8 in February. For manufacturing, the diffusion index was at 47.5, down from 61.3 in February...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:06 PM » Fed in focus after bad jobs report spooks markets
    Published Sun, Apr 05 2015 11:06 PM by CNBC
    After March's crushingly weak jobs report, markets will be hyper-focused on any clues coming out of the Fed.
  • 11:03 PM » Dollar Declines for Fourth Day as Weak Data Cloud Fed Outlook
    Published Sun, Apr 05 2015 11:03 PM by Bloomberg
    Dollar Declines for Fourth Day as Weak Data Cloud Fed Outlook Bloomberg The dollar fell, following three weeks of losses, as weakness in U.S. economic data clouded the outlook for higher interest rates. An index of the greenback against major peers extended declines to a fourth day, set for the longest losing streak in nine months, ...
  • 10:24 PM » Monday: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
    Published Sun, Apr 05 2015 10:24 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From CNBC: <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/102557414">Jobs shocker may show economy is in real trouble</a><br /><br />The economic data has been weak recently - and Q1 GDP will be weak. This might be due to a combination of seasonal factors, poor weather, the West Cost port slowdown, the stronger dollar and lower oil prices (the negative impacts are more obvious, but overall lower prices will be a positive).<br /><br />But there is no recession in sight. R-E-L-A-X.<br /><br />Monday:<br />• Early, <b>Black Knight Mortgage Monitor</b> for February<br /><br />• At 10:00 AM ET, the Fed will release the monthly <b>Labor Market Conditions Index</b> (LMCI).<br /><br />• At 10:00 AM, <b>ISM non-Manufacturing Index for March</b>. The consensus is for a reading of 56.7, down from 56.9 in February. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion.<br /><br />Weekend:<br />• <a href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2015/04/schedule-for-week-of-april-5-2015.html">Schedule for Week of April 5, 2015</a><br /><br />From CNBC: <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/17689937/site/14081545/">Pre-Market Data</a> and <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/">Bloomberg futures</a>: currently S&P futures are down 17 and DOW futures are down 142 (fair value).<br /><br />Oil prices were mixed over the last week with <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/">WTI futures</a> at $49.70 per barrel and Brent at $55.36 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $101, and...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:24 PM » Treasury Yield Falls to Two-Month Low as Traders Trim Rate Bets
    Published Sun, Apr 05 2015 10:24 PM by Bloomberg
    Treasury Yield Falls to Two-Month Low as Traders Trim Rate Bets Bloomberg The Treasury 10-year yield fell to the lowest level in two months as traders pushed back bets for when the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates amid signs the U.S. labor market is slowing. There's a 27 percent chance policy makers will increase borrowing ...
  • Fri, Apr 3 2015
  • 11:22 AM » Employment Report Comments and Graphs
    Published Fri, Apr 03 2015 11:22 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Earlier: March Employment Report: 126,000 Jobs, 5.5% Unemployment Rate This was a disappointing employment report with 126,000 jobs added, and downward revisions to the January and February reports (combined were 69,000 less than previously reported). However, maybe there was a hint of good news on wage growth, from the BLS: "In March, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 7 cents to $24.86. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.1 percent."  However weekly hours declined in March. A few more numbers:  Total employment increased 126,000 from February to March and is now 2.8 million above the previous peak.  Total employment is up 11.5 million from the employment recession low. Private payroll employment increased 129,000 from February to March, and private employment is now 3.3 million above the previous peak. Private employment is up 12.1 million from the recession low. In March, the year-over-year change was 3.1 million jobs. This was the fourth month in a row with the year-over-year gain above 3.1 million. Employment-Population Ratio, 25 to 54 years old Since the overall participation rate declined recently due to cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, an important graph is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. In the earlier period the participation rate for this group was trending up as women joined the labor force. Since the early '90s, the participation rate moved more sideways, with a downward drift starting around '00 - and with ups and downs related to the business cycle. The 25 to 54 participation rate decreased in February to 80.9%, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio decreased to 77.2%.  As the recovery continues, I expect the participation rate for this group to increase a little more (or at least stabilize for a couple of years...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:22 AM » The March Jobs Report in 11 Charts
    Published Fri, Apr 03 2015 11:22 AM by WSJ
    Here's how Friday's report from the Labor Department fits into the bigger picture of the economic expansion.
  • 10:39 AM » The March Jobs Report Was a Wake-Up Call About the Impact of the Strong Dollar
    Published Fri, Apr 03 2015 10:39 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg The March Jobs Report Was a Wake-Up Call About the Impact of the Strong Dollar Bloomberg The March jobs report showed tell-tale signs that the factory sector is struggling and the broader economy is feeling the impact. Private sector job growth slowed to the weakest pace since December of 2013, as manufacturing employment fell into contraction.
  • 10:37 AM » Economists React to the March Jobs Report: ‘Bottom Line: Ouch'
    Published Fri, Apr 03 2015 10:37 AM by WSJ
    Economists react to a March jobs report with payroll gains far below expectations.
  • 10:35 AM » For Fed, Question of Whether Jobs Weakness Will Continue or Prove an Aberration
    Published Fri, Apr 03 2015 10:35 AM by WSJ
    Federal Reserve officials will likely want to see a few more months of data before deciding whether the March slowdown in hiring reflects a serious weakening in the labor market that would justify holding off on raising interest rates.
  • 10:35 AM » Why Are Wages Growing Slowly Despite McDonald's, Wal-Mart Raises?
    Published Fri, Apr 03 2015 10:35 AM by WSJ
    Americans' paychecks are stuck in a slow-growth pattern despite companies ranging from McDonald's to Wal-Mart to Starbucks touting raises for their workers.
  • 8:45 AM » US added 126K jobs in March, vs 245K expected, jobless rate stays at 5.5%
    Published Fri, Apr 03 2015 8:45 AM by CNBC
    US added 126K jobs in March, vs 245K expected, jobless rate stays at 5.5%<br/>http://www.cnbc.com/id/102559510
  • Thu, Apr 2 2015
  • 9:56 PM » Will Good Friday bring a bad jobs report?
    Published Thu, Apr 02 2015 9:56 PM by CNBC
    The jobs report hits markets Friday when bonds and futures markets are open in the U.S. with the stock market closed for the Good Friday holiday.
  • 9:48 PM » Playing the volatility: El-Erian
    Published Thu, Apr 02 2015 9:48 PM by CNBC
    Investors should expect more volatility, Mohamed El-Erian said. Here's how he'd play it and when he expects the Fed to hike rikes.
  • 9:07 PM » FICO Announces New Credit Score Based on Alternative Data
    Published Thu, Apr 02 2015 9:07 PM by www.realtor.com
    Fair Isaac Corp., the creator of the most widely used consumer credit scores, announced Thursday a new score intended to make millions of people who have had difficulty getting approved… (Read More) The post FICO Announces New Credit Score Based on Alternative Data appeared first on Real Estate News .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 9:07 PM » Fannie Mae to Begin Auctioning Defaulted Home Loans to Investors
    Published Thu, Apr 02 2015 9:07 PM by Bloomberg
    Fannie Mae to Begin Auctioning Defaulted Home Loans to Investors Bloomberg Fannie Mae will begin bulk auctions of mortgages, including some sales targeted for non-profit groups and small investors, as the company moves to cut the number of non-performing loans on its books. "These transactions are intended to reduce the number ... and more »
  • 4:28 PM » Fed's Brainard: ‘Great Recession' May Have Long-Lasting Financial Consequences for Younger Americans
    Published Thu, Apr 02 2015 4:28 PM by WSJ
    High student debt, poor job prospects and shifting attitudes are inhibiting homeownership among younger Americans who came of age during the latest recession, potentially hindering the accumulation of wealth for that generation, Federal Reserve governor Lael Brainard said on Thursday.
  • 4:24 PM » Traders Are Now Expecting the Fed to Raise Rates Later Than Ever Before
    Published Thu, Apr 02 2015 4:24 PM by Bloomberg
    Traders Are Now Expecting the Fed to Raise Rates Later Than Ever Before Bloomberg Janet Yellen, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, speaks at the Federal Reserve System Community Development Research conference in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Thursday, April 2, 2015. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg. Ahead of the March jobs ... and more »
  • 3:08 PM » Be ready for weak jobs report: Pro
    Published Thu, Apr 02 2015 3:08 PM by CNBC
    Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, said the markets should be ready for a very weak jobs report.
  • 1:55 PM » Where Are Global Interest Rates Headed?
    Published Thu, Apr 02 2015 1:55 PM by WSJ
    Our global roundup of how the second quarter could play out for central banks around the world.
  • 1:43 PM » Housing supply dogs a recovering Detroit
    Published Thu, Apr 02 2015 1:43 PM by CNBC
    Detroit's housing scene is making a comeback but a shortage of inventory is holding back the recovery.
  • 1:43 PM » Larry Summers and Ben Bernanke are having the most important blog fight ever
    Published Thu, Apr 02 2015 1:43 PM by Washington Post
    Why the heck are interest rates so low?That's the question former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers and former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke have been debating in what might be the world's most important, but also most respectful, blog fight. Are rates low because not enough people want to invest or because too many people want to save? The answer tells us why the economy seems stuck and what we can do to un-stuck it.Read full article >>
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Washington Post
  • 12:01 PM » The Fed: Nothing will get Fed hiking faster than pickup in wages in March
    Published Thu, Apr 02 2015 12:01 PM by Market Watch
    A pickup in wages in the job report in March will increase the odds of the Fed moving at the earliest possible opportunity as June.
  • 12:01 PM » 5 Things to Watch in the March Jobs Report
    Published Thu, Apr 02 2015 12:01 PM by WSJ
    Will the labor market continue to shrug off recent signs of weakness that have popped up in other sectors of the U.S. economy?
  • 10:37 AM » Exclusive: Greece tells creditors it will run out of cash on April 9
    Published Thu, Apr 02 2015 10:37 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - Greece has told its creditors it will run out of money on April 9, making an appeal for more loans before reforms on which new disbursements hinge are agreed and implemented, but the request was rejected, euro zone officials said.
  • 10:32 AM » U.S. factory orders rise, offer glimmer of hope for manufacturing
    Published Thu, Apr 02 2015 10:32 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON,(Reuters) - New orders for U.S. factory goods unexpectedly rose in February after six straight months of declines, offering a ray of hope for a sector that has been battered by a strong dollar and weaker global demand.
  • 10:30 AM » Four million mortgage loans missing from 2009 to 2013 due to tight credit standards
    Published Thu, Apr 02 2015 10:30 AM by Google News
    For borrowers with anything less than pristine credit, it is hard to get a mortgage. In a new brief, we estimate that 4 million more loans would have been made between 2009 and 2013 if credit standards had been similar to 2001 levels. Why is credit so tight? Mortgage credit today is much tighter than […]
  • 10:30 AM » Reverse-mortgage rethink: Bad move or bright idea?
    Published Thu, Apr 02 2015 10:30 AM by CNBC
    While most advisors see reverse mortgages as ill-advised last resorts for cash-strapped seniors, others say it can be a useful retirement-plan tool.
  • 10:29 AM » Mortgage Rates Little Changed
    Published Thu, Apr 02 2015 10:29 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Mortgage Rates Little Changed
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 9:06 AM » US trade deficit falls sharply
    Published Thu, Apr 02 2015 9:06 AM by CNBC
    The U.S. trade deficit in February fell sharply, likely as a labor dispute at one of the country's main ports depressed both imports and exports.
  • 9:06 AM » Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 268,000
    Published Thu, Apr 02 2015 9:06 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The DOL reported : In the week ending March 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 268,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 6,000 from 282,000 to 288,000. The 4-week moving average was 285,500, a decrease of 14,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 3,250 from 297,000 to 300,250. There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. The previous week was revised up to 288,000. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 285,500. This was below the consensus forecast of 285,000, and the low level of the 4-week average suggests few layoffs.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:01 AM » ECB emphasizes commitment to bond-buying plan
    Published Thu, Apr 02 2015 9:01 AM by CNBC
    European Central Bank committed to its bond-buying program 'without hesitation until the objectives were reached.'
  • 9:01 AM » Fed's Yellen says research needed to understand inequality issue
    Published Thu, Apr 02 2015 9:01 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - More research is needed to understand what policies allow people to move up the economic ladder and what holds them back, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said on Thursday, returning to a controversial topic for the U.S. central bank.
  • 9:00 AM » JPMorgan Chase on track to pay $9 billion to homeowners as part of settlement
    Published Thu, Apr 02 2015 9:00 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co is on track to meet its mandate to provide billions of dollars in consumer relief to struggling homeowners as part of a settlement it reached over bad residential mortgage-backed securities it sold before the financial crisis, an independent monitor said on Thursday.
  • 12:31 AM » Another reason to cut Q1 growth?
    Published Thu, Apr 02 2015 12:31 AM by CNBC
    Trade data could provide a deeper look at the strong dollar's impact on the economy in Q1 and may result in economists slashing growth forecasts.
  • 12:29 AM » San Francisco Plans $200 Million of Bonds to Ease Housing Crunch
    Published Thu, Apr 02 2015 12:29 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg San Francisco Plans $200 Million of Bonds to Ease Housing Crunch Bloomberg San Francisco Mayor Ed Lee will seek voter approval for the first housing bond since 1996 as his city becomes the least affordable U.S. housing market and uproar grows about gentrification fueled by the technology boom. Lee plans to ask the city's Board of ...
  • Wed, Apr 1 2015
  • 4:33 PM » CFPB updates home buying information booklet
    Published Wed, Apr 01 2015 4:33 PM by www.cfpbmonitor.com
    Richard J. Andreano, Jr. The CFPB has issued an updated version of the home buying information booklet (also known as the special information or settlement cost booklet) required under RESPA and TILA. The new booklet is entitled “Your home loan toolkit: A step-by-step guide.” (The booklet it replaces is entitled “Shopping for Your Home Loan: Settlement Cost Booklet.”) The new booklet... More >
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.cfpbmonitor.com
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Mortgage Rates:
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