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  • Wed, Aug 30 2017
  • 1:59 PM » A US shutdown could cut into 4th-quarter GDP growth: S&P
    Published Wed, Aug 30 2017 1:59 PM by CNBC
    A U.S. government shutdown, if it were to start at the start of the fourth quarter, would subtract 0.2 percentage point a week.
  • 12:53 PM » Director Director Cordray to remain at CFPB beyond Sept. 1; Rep. Hensarling seeks confirmation of Director Corday's departure plans
    Published Wed, Aug 30 2017 12:53 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    Despite the various signs suggesting Director Cordray would resign before Labor Day, it now appears that he intends to remain as Director until at least a date in September. One of those signs was the notice on the CFPB’s website of the Fall 2017 Credit Union Advisory Council Meeting in Washington, D.C. on September 7,... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 12:53 PM » Zillow Forecast: "July Case-Shiller Forecast: Slowdown Coming in Home Prices"
    Published Wed, Aug 30 2017 12:53 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Case-Shiller house price indexes for June were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Svenja Gudell at Zillow: July Case-Shiller Forecast: Slowdown Coming in Home Prices Following months of record highs in the Case-Shiller U.S. National Index for home prices, July is expected to bring a slowdown - to 5.6 percent from June's 5.8 percent year-over-year, non-seasonally adjusted gain. The monthly gain for July is forecast at 0.2 percent, which is half the 0.4 percent growth that index posted for June. The 10- and 20-month indices are expected to drop 0.1 percent from June to July, with the 10-city index gaining 4.8 percent in July over the previous year, down from June's 4.9 percent annual growth, and the 20-city index climbing 5.4 percent annually, down from 5.7 percent in June. Zillow's full forecast for July Case-Shiller data is shown below. These forecasts are based on today's June Case-Shiller data release and the July 2017 Zillow Home Value Index . The July S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices will not be released officially until Tuesday, September 26. The year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index will probably be smaller in July than in June.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:47 AM » Fed's Powell says new rules for bank directors don't lower the bar
    Published Wed, Aug 30 2017 11:47 AM by Reuters
    CHICAGO (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell on Wednesday delivered a robust defense of new regulations for bank directors, saying they would streamline the role directors play in the day-to-day oversight of their institutions, but don't weaken their hand.
  • 11:46 AM » We've fixed the jobs gap, but people still aren't working
    Published Wed, Aug 30 2017 11:46 AM by webfeeds.brookings.edu
    The U.S. economy and labor market experienced their most severe shock in generations from 2008-10, with over eight million jobs disappearing in a span of just over two years. Once the economic expansion took hold and employment began growing, the eight million jobs had been recovered by May of 2014. Yet, because of population growth,…                
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: webfeeds.brookings.edu
  • 11:42 AM » Warren Buffett: This doesn't feel like a 3% GDP economy
    Published Wed, Aug 30 2017 11:42 AM by CNBC
    This is a breaking news story. Check back shortly for updates.. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett, chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, joined CNBC on Wednesday.
  • 11:42 AM » Harvey Could Reshape How and Where Americans Build Their Homes
    Published Wed, Aug 30 2017 11:42 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Harvey Could Reshape How and Where Americans Build Their Homes Bloomberg Jerry Garcia's home in Corpus Christi missed the worst of Hurricane Harvey by just a few miles and lost nothing more than some shingles and his backyard pier, which turned up further down Oso Bay. A 5-foot bulkhead and sloping lawn shielded it from the ... and more »
  • 10:24 AM » US Second-Quarter Growth Revised to 3% in Momentum Boost
    Published Wed, Aug 30 2017 10:24 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg US Second-Quarter Growth Revised to 3% in Momentum Boost Bloomberg U.S. second-quarter growth was revised upward to the fastest pace in two years on stronger household spending and a bigger gain in business investment, putting the economy on a stronger track, Commerce Department data showed Wednesday. and more »
  • 9:30 AM » Fed will continue to expect more 'than ever before' from directors of large banks, Powell says
    Published Wed, Aug 30 2017 9:30 AM by Market Watch
    The Federal Reserve will continue to expect much more from ever before from directors of large banks, said Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell, on Wednesday. In a speech at a conference sponsored by the Chicago Fed, Powell reminded the audience that, during the financial crisis, large banks incurred "massive losses" from esoteric products that were not even on the radar of bank boards. He said the Fed would work with bank directors who feel buried under paper from regulations put in place post-crisis, but said the central bank would not back away from requiring that bank boards be strong and effective. "Our reforms were designed to assure that boards of directors understand and approve the strategy of the company and the risks inherent in that strategy, and that the institution has the capital, liquidity, and risk management capabilities necessary to manage those risks," Powell said. The Fed governor did not comment on the outlook for interest rates or the economy in his prepared remarks.
  • 9:00 AM » Treasury yields hold their ground as geopolitical tension subsides
    Published Wed, Aug 30 2017 9:00 AM by Market Watch
    U.S. Treasury bonds stabilized, with the benchmark 10-year yield holding near a nine-month low, on Wednesday a day after bonds drew bids, extending a weekly decline, on the back of intensifying fears about military tensions in the Korean Peninsula after a missile launch briefly rattled global markets.
  • 8:59 AM » Mortgage applications fall again, as borrowers wait for even lower rates
    Published Wed, Aug 30 2017 8:59 AM by CNBC
    Applications to refinance fell 2 percent for the week and are down 41 percent from a year ago.
  • 8:59 AM » Wednesday: GDP, ADP Employment
    Published Wed, Aug 30 2017 8:59 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Now Easily into "High 3's" It's one thing for the highly competitive environment of "rate table" advertising (where lenders compete and you get confused) to be reporting mortgage rates  approaching the mid 3's. In fact, in that arena, rates have been in the 3% range for quite some time. Whether or not you'd qualify or even be interested in the specific scenario that is conducive to such rates is another story. It's an entirely different thing for me to be telling you that rates are now easily into the high 3's, because I'm talking about the most prevalently-quoted conventional 30yr fixed rates for the average top-tier scenario across all lenders.   3.875% is now a given at almost any well-priced lender, provided you have a high credit score and a decent amount of equity .   3.75% certainly isn't out of the question for the best scenarios , and the aggressive lenders have no issues quoting 3.625% today for perfectly-aligned stars. With all of the above having been said, please keep in mind that just a few "hits" to your scenario (slightly lower credit, lower downpayment, less aggressive lender) and you shouldn't be surprised to see a "4%" as the first number in your 30yr fixed rate quote instead of a "3%." emphasis added Wednesday: • At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index . • At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for August. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 182,000 payroll jobs added in August, up from 178,000 added in July. • At 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2017 (Second estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.8% annualized in Q2, up from advance estimate of 2.6%.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • Tue, Aug 29 2017
  • 5:55 PM » HUD tightens requirements for loans seniors can take against their homes
    Published Tue, Aug 29 2017 5:55 PM by Washington Post
    Every reverse mortgage loan taken out is currently projected to lose money, officials said.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Washington Post
  • 3:47 PM » After Harvey and North Korea, big economic and market gains are coming, Jim Paulsen says
    Published Tue, Aug 29 2017 3:47 PM by CNBC
    Hurricane Harvey and geopolitical turmoil from North Korea have spurred fears of market and economic disruption.
  • 3:11 PM » Market thinks Fed could hold off on rate hikes for another year — at least
    Published Tue, Aug 29 2017 3:11 PM by CNBC
    The Fed won't be hiking interest rates again until well into 2018, according to current predictions.
  • 3:10 PM » Buyers 'fight over scraps' in ever-pricier housing
    Published Tue, Aug 29 2017 3:10 PM by CNBC
    Home prices are continuing to rise. Demand has not fallen off, and bidding wars are to be expected with most offers.
  • 1:26 PM » Most Harvey flood victims uninsured, face big bills alone
    Published Tue, Aug 29 2017 1:26 PM by CNBC
    Insurance experts say only a small fraction of homeowners in Harvey's path of destruction have flood insurance.
  • 12:20 PM » U.S. consumer confidence hits five-month high; house prices rise
    Published Tue, Aug 29 2017 12:20 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S consumer confidence surged to a five-month high in August as households grew increasingly upbeat about the labor market while house prices rose further in June, suggesting a recent acceleration in consumer spending was likely to be sustained.
  • 12:05 PM » First-Time Homebuyer Demand Continues to Outpace Housing and Mortgage Market, Driving Home Pricing Appreciation
    Published Tue, Aug 29 2017 12:05 PM by PR Newswire
    RICHMOND, Va., Aug. 29, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- During the second quarter of 2017, first-time homebuyers purchased 570,000 single-family homes compared to 426,000 last quarter, marking the highest number of first-time homebuyer purchases during a second quarter since 1999, which had 599,000,...
  • 11:32 AM » Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in June
    Published Tue, Aug 29 2017 11:32 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.8% year-over-year in June It has been more than ten years since the bubble peak. In the Case-Shiller release this morning, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 3.2% above the previous bubble peak. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is still about 13.3% below the bubble peak. The year-over-year increase in prices is mostly moving sideways now just over 5%. In June, the index was up 5.8% YoY. Usually people graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms (inflation adjusted).  Case-Shiller and others report nominal house prices.  As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be close to $278,000 today adjusted for inflation (39%).  That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices (adjusted for inflation). Nominal House Prices The first graph shows the monthly Case-Shiller National Index SA, and the monthly Case-Shiller Composite 20 SA (through June) in nominal terms as reported. In nominal terms, the Case-Shiller National index (SA) is at a new peak, and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 Index (SA) is back to October 2005 levels. Real House Prices The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter). Note: some people use other inflation measures to adjust for real prices. In real terms, the National index is back to July 2004 levels, and the Composite 20 index is back to March 2004. In real terms, house prices are back to early-to-mid 2004 levels. Price-to-Rent In October 2004, Fed economist John Krainer and researcher Chishen Wei wrote a Fed letter on price to rent ratios: House Prices and Fundamental Value . Kainer and Wei presented a price-to-rent ratio using the OFHEO house price index and the Owners' Equivalent...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:31 AM » Homeowner's lawsuit says Wells Fargo charged improper mortgage fees
    Published Tue, Aug 29 2017 11:31 AM by Reuters
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - A homeowner has filed a proposed class action lawsuit accusing Wells Fargo & Co of improperly charging thousands of customers nationwide to lock in interest rates when their mortgage applications were delayed.
  • 10:25 AM » Consumer confidence strengthens in August, beating expectations for a drop
    Published Tue, Aug 29 2017 10:25 AM by CNBC
    A major indicator of consumer optimism rose to 122.9 in August.
  • 10:24 AM » Labor market pump is primed—we must take advantage
    Published Tue, Aug 29 2017 10:24 AM by webfeeds.brookings.edu
    The most recent jobs report from the U.S. Department of Labor eliminates any lingering doubts that labor markets in the U.S. are now quite tight and that employers need more workers. The Hamilton Project at Brookings announced that jobs are just as plentiful, relative to the population of potential workers, as they were before the…                
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: webfeeds.brookings.edu
  • 9:30 AM » Massive Texas vaults ready to truck cash to Harvey-devastated areas, says ex-Dallas Fed president
    Published Tue, Aug 29 2017 9:30 AM by CNBC
    "The Fed is open in Houston. It's open here in Dallas," Richard Fisher says.
  • 8:46 AM » Trump says ‘all options are on the table for North Korea': White House
    Published Tue, Aug 29 2017 8:46 AM by CNBC
    President Donald Trump responded to North Korea's firing a ballistic missile that passed over Japan with a statement Tuesday.
  • 8:45 AM » Detroit's tiny houses are giving low-income earners a shot at homeownership
    Published Tue, Aug 29 2017 8:45 AM by CNBC
    Here, the Tiny House movement serves a different purpose.
  • Mon, Aug 28 2017
  • 6:14 PM » Dow futures open more than 100 points lower after North Korea fires missile over Japan
    Published Mon, Aug 28 2017 6:14 PM by CNBC
    North Korea has fired a ballistic missile that passed over Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told reporters early Tuesday. A South Korean military official told NBC News that the projectile was fired around 5:57 a.m. local time on Tuesday. The official said that the missile flew for about 2,700 kilometers (1,678 miles), reaching a maximum altitude of 550 kilometers (342 miles). U.S. Pacific Command projected that the missile splashed down at 6:29 a.m. local time.
  • 4:54 PM » HUD Announces Disaster Assistance for Victims of Hurricane Harvey
    Published Mon, Aug 28 2017 4:54 PM by HUD
    WASHINGTON - U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson today announced HUD will speed federal disaster assistance to the State of Texas and provide support to homeowners and low-income renters forced from their homes due to Hurricane Harvey.
  • 4:54 PM » Modest Expansion for Residential Construction Loans
    Published Mon, Aug 28 2017 4:54 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    The volume of residential construction loans increased by 1.2% during the second quarter of 2017, marking 17 consecutive quarters of growth. However, the growth rate for lending since the end of 2016 has slowed. Tight availability of acquisition, development and construction (AD&C) loans has been a limiting factor for home building growth, but easing credit conditions and a growing loan base have helped expand residential construction activity in a thin inventory environment. According... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 4:54 PM » Hurricane Harvey Could Cost Homeowners Big-Time—and for a Long Time
    Published Mon, Aug 28 2017 4:54 PM by www.realtor.com
    Hurricane Harvey is causing significant damage to homes, businesses, and entire communities. The damage is not expected to be a cheap or quick fix. The post Hurricane Harvey Could Cost Homeowners Big-Time-and for a Long Time appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 3:06 PM » Why Janet Yellen may have talked herself out of a job
    Published Mon, Aug 28 2017 3:06 PM by CNBC
    In making a case for strong banking regulations, Fed Chair Janet Yellen also may have been indirectly telling President Trump not to reappoint her.
  • 2:08 PM » Tapping Your Home Equity for Cash Is Big Again
    Published Mon, Aug 28 2017 2:08 PM by www.realtor.com
    Home-equity lines of credit and cash-out mortgage refinances are back in vogue with consumers. That reflects growing confidence. The post Tapping Your Home Equity for Cash Is Big Again appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 12:04 PM » Don't let anyone tell you Hurricane Harvey won't damage the U.S. economy
    Published Mon, Aug 28 2017 12:04 PM by Market Watch
    Hurricane Harvey is going to damage the U.S. economy. The problem is that economic statistics may mask the pain, economists said Monday.
  • 11:48 AM » Barron's: Why China has been gobbling up U.S. government paper
    Published Mon, Aug 28 2017 11:48 AM by Market Watch
    China is once again America's top creditor, and Treasury investors are paying attention. But market participants should be careful not to get ahead of themselves in expecting that renewed Chinese buying interest will provide a significant weight on Treasury yields.
  • 11:12 AM » What Markets Think About the Looming Debt Ceiling Showdown
    Published Mon, Aug 28 2017 11:12 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg What Markets Think About the Looming Debt Ceiling Showdown Bloomberg Financial markets are suggesting the political drama surrounding Congressional efforts to raise the nation's debt ceiling will play out more like the lesser of two recent showdowns. Investor angst, as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index, known as ... and more »
  • 11:11 AM » Bond Report: Treasury yields stabilize ahead of pending auctions
    Published Mon, Aug 28 2017 11:11 AM by Market Watch
    Treasury yields were mixed on early Monday trade ahead of auctions for government paper, which will kick off a week brimming with economic data that may sway the Federal Reserve's schedule for normalizing monetary policy.
  • 10:46 AM » Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Activity Expands Again" in August
    Published Mon, Aug 28 2017 10:46 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Expands Again Texas factory activity continued to increase in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, edged down to 20.3, indicating output grew but at a slightly slower pace than in July. Other measures of current manufacturing activity also indicated continued growth. The new orders and the growth rate of orders indexes ticked down but stayed solidly positive, coming in at 14.3 and 11.7, respectively. The capacity utilization index fell six points to 12.2, while the shipments index increased seven points to 18.1. Perceptions of broader business conditions remained positive in August. The general business activity index was largely unchanged at a robust 17.0 . The company outlook index posted its 12th consecutive positive reading but slipped 10 points to 16.3 after surging to a multiyear high last month. Labor market measures suggested continued employment gains and longer workweeks this month. The employment index came in at 9.9 , slightly below the July reading, extending this year's string of positive readings. Eighteen percent of firms noted net hiring, compared with eight percent noting net layoffs. The hours worked index rose five points to 14.5. emphasis added This was the last of the regional Fed surveys for August. Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index: Click on graph for larger image. The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through August), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through August) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through July (right axis). Based on these regional surveys, it seems likely the ISM manufacturing index will increase in August compared to July (to be released Friday, Sept 1st). The consensus is for...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:44 AM » U.S. goods trade deficit widens in July; retail inventories fall
    Published Mon, Aug 28 2017 10:44 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. goods trade deficit increased in July as exports fell, suggesting that trade would make a modest contribution to economic growth in the third quarter.
  • 9:24 AM » Home improvement retailers rise in premarket trading after Harvey
    Published Mon, Aug 28 2017 9:24 AM by Reuters
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - Shares of U.S. home improvement retailers rose in premarket trading on Monday as Tropical Storm Harvey was set to dump more rain on Houston, Texas, intensifying flooding for the fourth-largest U.S. city.
  • 8:42 AM » Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.9% in June, Up 6.2% year-over-year
    Published Mon, Aug 28 2017 8:42 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). Note: Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted . From Black Knight: Black Knight Home Price Index Report: U.S. Home Prices Hit Another New High with 0.9 Percent Gain in June, Up 6.2 Percent Year-Over-Year • After 62 consecutive months of annual home price appreciation, U.S. home prices hit yet another new peak in June • Prices rose 0.9% from May, for a total of 5.5% growth since the start of the year • The national level HPI now stands at $281K, and the rate of annual growth continues to accelerate (+6.2% Y/Y in June as compared to +6.1% in May) • 12 of the 20 largest states and 21 of the 40 largest metros hit new home price peaks in June The year-over-year increase in this index has been about the same for the last year (in the 5% and 6% range). Note that house prices are above the bubble peak in nominal terms, but not in real terms (adjusted for inflation).  Case-Shiller for June will be released tomorrow.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
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