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  • Mon, Sep 23 2019
  • 12:09 PM » More Americans are house-rich, but they're leaving that cash in the house
    Published Mon, Sep 23 2019 12:09 PM by CNBC
    Rising home prices, coupled with conservative borrowing, have today's homeowners sitting on a record amount of potential cash. Today's mortgage holders saw their home equity increase by 4.8% annually by the end of the second quarter.
  • 12:09 PM » Black Knight's First Look: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in August, Foreclosure Inventory Lowest Since 2005
    Published Mon, Sep 23 2019 12:09 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From Black Knight: Black Knight's First Look: Foreclosure Starts Hit 18-year Low in August; Mortgage Prepayments Continue to Rise in Lower Interest Rate Environment • August's 36,200 foreclosure starts made for the lowest single-month total since December 2000 • The number of loans in active foreclosure inventory also fell; at 253,000, it's the fewest since 2005 • Prepayment activity - typically a good indicator of refinance activity - continues to press upward, increasing 5% from July to reach a three-year high • August's prepayment rate was up 62% from the same time last year and 2.5 times the 18-year low hit in January • Given a 30-45 day closing window, the month's prepayment activity reflects June/July interest rates; as rates fell further in August and September, the peak in refinance-driven prepayments is likely still to come According to Black Knight's First Look report for August, the percent of loans delinquent decreased slightly in August compared to July, and decreased 1.5% year-over-year. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased 2.4% in August and were down 11.5% over the last year. Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 3.45% in August down from 3.46% in July. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased in August to 0.48% from 0.49% in July. Black Knight: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process   Aug 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2018 Aug 2017 Delinquent 3.45% 3.46% 3.52% 3.93% In Foreclosure 0.48% 0.49% 0.54% 0.76% Number of properties: Number of properties that are delinquent, but not in foreclosure: 1,813,000 1,807,000 1,818,000 2,003,000 Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory: 253,000 258,000 280,000 385,000 Total Properties Delinquent or in foreclosure 2,066,000 2,065,000 2,099,000 2,388,000
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:04 AM » Fed's Williams Says Repo Turmoil Raises Questions on Reserves
    Published Mon, Sep 23 2019 11:04 AM by Bloomberg
    Fed's Williams Says Repo Turmoil Raises Questions on Reserves    Bloomberg Last week's turmoil in money markets raises questions about the appropriate level of bank reserves in the financial system, Federal Reserve Bank of New York ...
  • 9:59 AM » US manufacturing sector activity hits 5-month high in September, IHS Markit says
    Published Mon, Sep 23 2019 9:59 AM by CNBC
    US manufacturing sector activity hits 5-month high in September, IHS Markit says<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/23/us-manufacturing-sector-activity-hits-5-month-high-in-september-ihs-markit-says.html
  • 9:20 AM » Chicago Fed "Index Points to a Pickup in Economic Growth in August"
    Published Mon, Sep 23 2019 9:20 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Chicago Fed: Index Points to a Pickup in Economic Growth in August Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.10 in August from -0.41 in July. All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from July, but three of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in August. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, edged up to -0.06 in August from -0.14 in July. emphasis added This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967. Click on graph for larger image. This suggests economic activity was slightly below the historical trend in August (using the three-month average). According to the Chicago Fed: The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. ... A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:33 AM » Home Insurance is a Challenge in California's Wildfire-Prone Areas
    Published Mon, Sep 23 2019 8:33 AM by www.builderonline.com
    Home Insurance is a Challenge in California's Wildfire-Prone Areas
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.builderonline.com
  • 8:04 AM » How to know if it's time to buy a home
    Published Mon, Sep 23 2019 8:04 AM by CNBC
    Close to two-thirds of Americans own a home. Should you be among them? Here is how to know.
  • Fri, Sep 20 2019
  • 5:30 PM » Clarida Says Fed Policy Will Take Account of Downside Risks - Bloomberg
    Published Fri, Sep 20 2019 5:30 PM by Bloomberg
    Clarida Says Fed Policy Will Take Account of Downside Risks    Bloomberg The Federal Reserve will take account of the ongoing risks to the favorable outlook for the U.S. economy in deciding the stance of monetary policy in the coming ...
  • 5:30 PM » Fed in three voices: recession, bubbles, and 'in a good place'
    Published Fri, Sep 20 2019 5:30 PM by Reuters
    After delivering a split-decision rate cut earlier this week, U.S. Federal Reserve officials put their divisions on full display Friday, with warnings of a slowdown on the one hand and financial risks on the other bookending talk of how well things are going.
  • 5:30 PM » Fed Tackles End-of-Quarter Funding Angst by Extending Repo Plan - Bloomberg
    Published Fri, Sep 20 2019 5:30 PM by Bloomberg
    Fed Tackles End-of-Quarter Funding Angst by Extending Repo Plan    Bloomberg The Federal Reserve announced a series of overnight and term operations for the next three weeks, signaling that it has control over this vital corner of the ...
  • 5:29 PM » Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Positive in Q2
    Published Fri, Sep 20 2019 5:29 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: This is not Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) data from the Fed. The last MEW data from Fed economist Dr. Kennedy was for Q4 2008. The following data is calculated from the Fed's Flow of Funds data (released last week) and the BEA supplement data on single family structure investment. This is an aggregate number, and is a combination of homeowners extracting equity - hence the name "MEW" - and normal principal payments and debt cancellation (modifications, short sales, and foreclosures). For Q2 2019, the Net Equity Extraction was $23 billion , or a 0.6% of Disposable Personal Income (DPI) . Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the net equity extraction, or mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW), results, using the Flow of Funds (and BEA data) compared to the Kennedy-Greenspan method. Note: This data is impacted by debt cancellation and foreclosures, but much less than a few years ago. MEW has been mostly positive for the last four years. With a slower rate of debt cancellation, MEW will likely be mostly positive going forward - but nothing like during the housing bubble. The Fed's Flow of Funds report showed that the amount of mortgage debt outstanding increased by $76 billion in Q2. For reference: Dr. James Kennedy also has a simple method for calculating equity extraction: " A Simple Method for Estimating Gross Equity Extracted from Housing Wealth ". Here is a companion spread sheet (the above uses my simple method). For those interested in the last Kennedy data included in the graph, the spreadsheet from the Fed is available here .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:01 PM » Two U.S. Swing States Lost the Most Factory Jobs in Past Year
    Published Fri, Sep 20 2019 3:01 PM by Bloomberg
    Two U.S. Swing States Lost the Most Factory Jobs in Past Year    Bloomberg As the U.S. presidential campaign heats up, Democratic candidates may want to look at two Rust Belt states that narrowly helped deliver Donald Trump's victory ...
  • 1:43 PM » Chinese trade negotiators cancel US farm visit, cut trip short
    Published Fri, Sep 20 2019 1:43 PM by CNBC
    Chinese trade negotiators had a sudden change of plans, cancelling a visit to meet U.S. farmers in Montana after they wrapped trade talks in Washington this week.
  • 1:11 PM » Fed's Rosengren: Will worry when consumers show worry
    Published Fri, Sep 20 2019 1:11 PM by Reuters
    Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren on Friday said he might temper his opposition to interest rate cuts if he starts to see weakness in consumer spending.
  • 12:39 PM » U.S. lifts tariffs on 400 Chinese products, Trump cites trade progress
    Published Fri, Sep 20 2019 12:39 PM by Reuters
    U.S. President Donald Trump said his administration was "making a lot of progress" with China on Friday, as deputy-level trade talks continued for a second day and Washington lifted tariffs on over 400 Chinese products.
  • 11:31 AM » Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 2.0%
    Published Fri, Sep 20 2019 11:31 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From Merrill Lynch: We expect 2Q GDP to be revised slightly higher to 2.1% qoq saar in the final release. 3Q GDP tracking remains at 2.0% qoq saar . [Sept 20 estimate] emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: e left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged on a rounded basis at +2.2% (qoq ar) . [Sept 19 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.2% for 2019:Q3 and 2.0% for 2019:Q4. [Sept 20 estimate]. And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 1.9 percent September 18, up from 1.8 percent on September 13. [Sept 18 estimate] CR Note: The GDP estimates increased this week mostly due to better than expected housing starts and industrial production numbers. These estimates suggest real GDP growth will be around 2.0% annualized in Q3.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:45 AM » BLS: August Unemployment rates at New Series Lows in Alabama, Alaska, Illinois, Maine and New Jersey
    Published Fri, Sep 20 2019 10:45 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Unemployment rates were lower in August in 5 states, higher in 3 states, and stable in 42 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Five states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier, 2 states had increases, and 43 states and the District had little or no change. ... Vermont had the lowest unemployment rate in August, 2.1 percent. The rates in Alabama (3.1 percent), Alaska (6.2 percent), Illinois (4.0 percent), Maine (2.9 percent), and New Jersey (3.2 percent) set new series lows . (All state series begin in 1976.) Alaska had the highest jobless rate, 6.2 percent. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the number of states (and D.C.) with unemployment rates at or above certain levels since January 1976. At the worst of the great recession, there were 11 states with an unemployment rate at or above 11% (red). Currently only one state, Alaska, has an unemployment rate at or above 6% (dark blue).  Note that Alaska set a new series low (since 1976).  Three states and the D.C. have unemployment rates above 5%; Alaska, Arizona and Mississippi. A total of eleven states are at a series low: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Illinois, Maine, New Jersey, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas and Vermont.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:13 AM » Fed Vice Chair Clarida says the Fed will take interest rate policy 'meeting by meeting'
    Published Fri, Sep 20 2019 10:13 AM by CNBC
    Fed Vice Chair Clarida says the Fed will take interest rate policy 'meeting by meeting'<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/20/fed-vice-chair-clarida-says-the-fed-will-take-interest-rate-policy-meeting-by-meeting.html
  • 9:53 AM » Fed's Rosengren says interest rate cuts are 'not costless'
    Published Fri, Sep 20 2019 9:53 AM by Reuters
    Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren, who dissented from the central bank's decision to cut interest rates earlier this week, repeated on Friday that monetary stimulus was not needed for the U.S. economy and posed its own problems.
  • 8:06 AM » U.S. repo rate rises ahead of Fed repo operation
    Published Fri, Sep 20 2019 8:06 AM by Reuters
    The interest rate on U.S. overnight repurchase agreements climbed early Friday in advance of an operation conducted by the New York Federal Reserve which may add up to $75 billion in temporary cash in the U.S. banking system.
  • 8:04 AM » Pimco Vice Chairman John Studzinski on Fed Policy, Negative Yielding Bonds, China
    Published Fri, Sep 20 2019 8:04 AM by Bloomberg
    Pimco Vice Chairman John Studzinski on Fed Policy, Negative Yielding Bonds, China    Bloomberg John Studzinski, vice chairman at Pimco, discusses Fed policy, the effectiveness of monetary policy, future rate cuts, negative yielding bonds, where he's finding ...
  • Thu, Sep 19 2019
  • 4:01 PM » U.S. House approves short-term funding measure
    Published Thu, Sep 19 2019 4:01 PM by Reuters
    The U.S. House of Representatives approved a stopgap funding measure on Thursday that would avoid a government shutdown by maintaining current spending levels through Nov. 21.
  • 2:24 PM » New plot twist: CFPB agrees its structure is unconstitutional
    Published Thu, Sep 19 2019 2:24 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    The long-running saga that is the litigation over whether the CFPB's single-director-removable-only-for-cause structure is constitutional took a new twist on Tuesday with the CFPB's announcement that it has determined that its structure is unconstitutional. On October 22, 2019, from 12:00 to 1:00 p.m. (ET), Ballard Spahr will hold a webinar, “The CFPB’s Constitutionality Goes to... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 12:41 PM » Comments on August Existing Home Sales
    Published Thu, Sep 19 2019 12:41 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.49 million in August A few key points: 1) Existing home sales were up 2.6% year-over-year (YoY) in August.  This was the second consecutive YoY increase - following 16 consecutive months with a YoY decrease in sales. 2) Inventory is still low, and was down 2.6% year-over-year (YoY) in August. 3) As usual, housing economist Tom Lawler's forecast was closer to the NAR report than the consensus. See: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in August .   The consensus was for sales of 5.38 million SAAR.  Lawler estimated the NAR would report 5.42 million SAAR in July, and the NAR actually reported 5.49 million SAAR. Click on graph for larger image. 4) Year-to-date sales are down about 2.6% compared to the same period in 2018.   On an annual basis, that would put sales around 5.20 million in 2019.  Sales slumped at the end of 2018 and in January 2019 due to higher mortgage rates, the stock market selloff, and fears of an economic slowdown. The comparisons will be easier towards the end of this year, and with lower mortgage rates, sales might even finish the year unchanged or even up from 2018. The second graph shows existing home sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). Sales NSA in August (534,000, red column) were below sales in August 2018 (539,000, NSA). There were fewer selling days in August 2019 than in 2018. Overall this was a solid report.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:43 AM » Home flippers see lowest returns in 8 years as costs rise
    Published Thu, Sep 19 2019 11:43 AM by CNBC
    It's getting harder to be a home flipper. As easy as it might seem on reality television shows, the math is now trickier, thanks to a housing market loaded with roadblocks.
  • 11:05 AM » Fed calms overnight funding market, unclear how long it will continue special operations
    Published Thu, Sep 19 2019 11:05 AM by CNBC
    The Federal Reserve has calmed the overnight funding market and brought its fed funds rate back in line with its target.
  • 10:05 AM » Philly Fed Manufacturing shows Continued Expansion in September, At Slower Pace
    Published Thu, Sep 19 2019 10:05 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Philly Fed: August 2019 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Manufacturing activity in the region continued to expand this month, according to results from the September Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's broad indicators remained positive, although their movements were mixed: The indexes for general activity and new orders fell, while the indexes for shipments and employment increased. The survey's price indexes increased notably this month. The survey's future general activity index moderated but continues to suggest growth over the next six months. The diffusion index for current general activity fell 5 points this month to 12.0 . emphasis added This was at the consensus forecast. Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index: Click on graph for larger image. The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through September), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through August) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through August (right axis). These early reports suggest the ISM manufacturing index will probably be weak again in September.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:16 AM » Attention Bargain Hunters: The Best Time of the Year to Buy a Home Is…
    Published Thu, Sep 19 2019 9:16 AM by www.realtor.com
    Buying a home is stressful, expensive, and frustrating. But those who time their purchase just right can save themselves heaps of hassle. The post Attention Bargain Hunters: The Best Time of the Year to Buy a Home Is… appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 8:41 AM » US weekly jobless claims rise less than expected
    Published Thu, Sep 19 2019 8:41 AM by CNBC
    The data pointed to strong labor market conditions that should continue to support a moderately growing economy.
  • 8:03 AM » Bond Traders Are Still Leaning Toward Another 2019 Fed Rate Cut
    Published Thu, Sep 19 2019 8:03 AM by Bloomberg
    Bond Traders Are Still Leaning Toward Another 2019 Fed Rate Cut    Bloomberg Futures traders still see about another quarter-point of easing from the Federal Reserve this year, after the central bank cut rates on Wednesday and said it will ...
  • 8:02 AM » Housing starts just hit 12-year high, but sector may be getting 'ahead of itself,' says strategist
    Published Thu, Sep 19 2019 8:02 AM by CNBC
    Homebuilding stocks have made strides, but the latest good news for the group may not help as much as investors hope, strategists warn.
  • Wed, Sep 18 2019
  • 4:28 PM » CFPB addresses RESPA issue in its first no-action letter under the revised final policy
    Published Wed, Sep 18 2019 4:28 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    In its first No-Action Letter under the new revised policy, the CFPB addresses a long-standing issue under the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act regarding certain payment arrangements between mortgage lenders and housing counseling agencies. We previously reported on the CFPB issuing its final No-Action Letter policy and other innovation policies. (The CFPB issued just one... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 3:12 PM » Instant view: Fed cuts rates again, gives mixed signals for next move
    Published Wed, Sep 18 2019 3:12 PM by Reuters
    The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point for the second time this year on Wednesday in a widely expected move meant to sustain a decade-long economic expansion, but gave mixed signals about what may happen next.
  • 3:10 PM » Trump on Fed: 'No 'guts,' no sense, no vision!'
    Published Wed, Sep 18 2019 3:10 PM by Reuters
    President Donald Trump blasted the Federal Reserve for delivering only a quarter-percentage point interest rate cut on Wednesday, saying the central bank and its leader, Jerome Powell, had "No 'guts,' no sense, no vision!"
  • 3:10 PM » Powell says it's possible the Fed will have to resume balance-sheet growth
    Published Wed, Sep 18 2019 3:10 PM by CNBC
    Powell says it's possible the Fed will have to resume balance-sheet growth<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/18/powell-says-its-possible-the-fed-will-have-to-resume-balance-sheet-growth.html
  • 2:15 PM » Fed cuts rates on 7-3 vote, gives mixed signals on next move
    Published Wed, Sep 18 2019 2:15 PM by Reuters
    The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point for the second time this year on Wednesday in a widely expected move meant to sustain a decade-long economic expansion, but gave mixed signals about what may happen next.
  • 1:21 PM » AIA: "Substantial Decline in Architecture Billings"
    Published Wed, Sep 18 2019 1:21 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Substantial Decline in Architecture Billings Demand for design services in August took a markedly downward swing compared to July's already soft score, according to a new report released today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA). AIA's Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score of 47.2 in August showed a significant drop in architecture firm billings compared to the July score of 50.1. Any score below 50 indicates a decrease in billings. The design contracts score also declined to 47.9 in August, representing a rare dip for this indicator. Billings in the West stayed modestly positive while all other regions remained in negative territory. "The sizeable drop in both design billings and new project activity, coming on the heels of six months of disappointing growth in billings, suggests that the design expansion that began in mid-2012 is beginning to face headwinds ," said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. "Currently, the weakness is centered at firms specializing in commercial/industrial facilities as well as those located in the Midwest. However, there are fewer pockets of strength in design activity now, either by building sector or region than there have been in recent years." ... • Regional averages: West (51.2); Northeast (49.1); South (48.2); Midwest (46.4) • Sector index breakdown: institutional (50.6); multi-family residential (50.5); commercial/industrial (46.9); mixed practice (46.3) emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 47.2 in August, down from 50.1 in July. Anything below 50 indicates contraction in demand for architects' services. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. According...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:20 PM » 'Bond King' Gundlach says there is an increasing chance of a recession before 2020 election
    Published Wed, Sep 18 2019 1:20 PM by CNBC
    DoubleLine Capital's Jeffrey Gundlach spoke to CNBC on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates.
  • 11:39 AM » Atlanta Fed model estimate for U.S. third-quarter GDP edges up to 1.9%
    Published Wed, Sep 18 2019 11:39 AM by Reuters
    The U.S. economy is likely growing at a 1.9% annualized rate in the third quarter, based on the latest data on industrial output and housing starts, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow forecast model showed on Wednesday.
  • 9:31 AM » U.S. fed funds rate breaks above Fed's target range
    Published Wed, Sep 18 2019 9:31 AM by Reuters
    A key interest rates the Federal Reserve aims to influence to control monetary policy broke above the top-end of the central bank's target range for the first time since the global credit crisis more than a decade ago.
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