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  • Thu, Jan 21 2016
  • 9:00 AM » The Wall Street Journal: Online lender Elevate Credit postpones its IPO
    Published Thu, Jan 21 2016 9:00 AM by Market Watch
    Elevate Credit, an online lender, postponed its IPO which was set to price Thursday.
  • 9:00 AM » ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged as Oil Threatens Inflation Outlook
    Published Thu, Jan 21 2016 9:00 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged as Oil Threatens Inflation Outlook Bloomberg The European Central Bank left its key interest rates unchanged as investors wait for President Mario Draghi to explain how officials intend to respond to a slump in oil prices that's depressing euro-area inflation. The 25-member Governing Council ... and more »
  • 12:57 AM » Nervous investors raise cash as markets slide
    Published Thu, Jan 21 2016 12:57 AM by CNBC
    Fund managers' average cash balances climbed to 5.4%, the third-highest level since 2009, BoAML's latest survey showed.
  • 12:57 AM » U.S. crude oil prices stabilize but market sentiment remains bearish
    Published Thu, Jan 21 2016 12:57 AM by Reuters
    SINGAPORE (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil prices stabilized in early Asian trade on Thursday after hitting fresh 2003 lows the session before, but analysts said a persistent global glut would keep pressuring markets.
  • 12:56 AM » PBOC Injects Most Cash in Three Years in Open-Market Operations
    Published Thu, Jan 21 2016 12:56 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg PBOC Injects Most Cash in Three Years in Open-Market Operations Bloomberg The People's Bank of China injected the most cash in almost three years in its open-market operations, helping ease a cash squeeze as the coming Chinese New Year holiday spurs demand for funds at a time when capital outflows are mounting. The central ... and more »
  • Wed, Jan 20 2016
  • 3:55 PM » Economic Trends: How to Make Sense of Plummeting Global Markets
    Published Wed, Jan 20 2016 3:55 PM by rss.nytimes.com
    Stock, bond and especially commodity markets have swung in ways that suggest this is a perilous time, but the cause is puzzling.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: rss.nytimes.com
  • 3:55 PM » AIA: "Architecture Billings Index Ends Year on Positive Note"
    Published Wed, Jan 20 2016 3:55 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture Billings Index Ends Year on Positive Note There were a few occasions where demand for design services decreased from a month-to-month basis in 2015, but the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) concluded the year in positive terrain and was so in eight of the twelve months of the year. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported t he December ABI score was 50.9, up from the mark of 49.3 in the previous month . This score reflects a slight increase in design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 60.2, up from a reading of 58.6 the previous month. "As has been the case for the past several years, there continues to be a mix of business conditions that architecture firms are experiencing," said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. " Overall, however, ABI scores for 2015 averaged just below the strong showing in 2014, which points to another healthy year for construction this year ." ... • Regional averages: West (53.7), South (53.3), Northeast (46.7), Midwest (46.1) • Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (52.9), institutional (52.2), commercial / industrial (47.3), mixed practice (46.5) emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 50.9 in December, down from 49.3 in November. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. The multi-family residential market was negative for most of the...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:55 PM » Yellen to testify about outlook to Congress on Feb. 10
    Published Wed, Jan 20 2016 3:55 PM by Market Watch
    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen will testify on Feb. 10 about the outlook for the U.S. economy and interest rates to the House Financial Services Committee, according to a statement from the panel released Wednesday. The hearing is part of Yellen's regular bi-annual reports to lawmakers about central bank matters.
  • 3:55 PM » How Are Closings Going?
    Published Wed, Jan 20 2016 3:55 PM by Realtor.Org
    Home sales in November 2015 saw a big drop and although it’s too soon to know definitively what’s behind the slowdown, it’s possible the new closing rules that went into effect October 3 had something to do with it. NAR researchers say closings on average are taking five days longer than they did before the […]
  • 1:17 PM » Gundlach: Declines not stopping soon
    Published Wed, Jan 20 2016 1:17 PM by CNBC
    Jeffrey Gundlach said that accelerating declines in markets could be suggesting that there are "margin calls going on."
  • 10:53 AM » Corporate Bond Market Concerns
    Published Wed, Jan 20 2016 10:53 AM by CNBC
    Investors are understandably worried about their energy stocks. But there's another part of the market that shouldn't be overlooked: corporate bonds.
  • 10:51 AM » How Do You Define Bond Liquidity? US Treasury Wants to Know
    Published Wed, Jan 20 2016 10:51 AM by Bloomberg
    How Do You Define Bond Liquidity? US Treasury Wants to Know Bloomberg The U.S. Treasury Department wants to know if you're worried about bond-market liquidity. Also, how you even define it. The agency released a request for information Tuesday -- part of its first significant review of the market in almost two decades ...
  • 8:41 AM » Survey Finds Investors Significantly Less Confident in Global Economic Outlook
    Published Wed, Jan 20 2016 8:41 AM by newsroom.bankofamerica.com
    Dateline City: NEW YORK Cash Allocations Rise, Equities Cut Sharply With increasing concern over China's growth, investors are significantly less confident in the global economic outlook, according to the BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey for January. Allocations to equities have fallen sharply, while cash holdings have risen. A net 8 percent of fund managers see the global economy strengthening over the next 12 months - the survey's lowest reading on this measure since 2012. Despite this, just 12 percent believe a global recession will occur in the next 12 months. Slowdown in China now stands out as the panel's biggest "tail risk" by far. More respondents now think global profits will decline over the next 12 months than increase, the first negative reading in over three years. Over half of respondents expect no more than two Fed hikes in the next 12 months, up from 40 percent a month ago. Long U.S. dollar remains the most crowded trade, but bullishness on the currency is waning. Average cash balances are up to 5.4 percent, the third-highest reading since 2009. A net 38 percent of investors are now overweight cash. Net overweights in equities have halved to a net 21 percent from December's net 42 percent, while bond underweights have retreated. Bearishness towards Global Emerging Markets equities has increased to a record level. Europe and Japan remain the most favored stock markets. "Investors are not yet 'max bearish'. They have yet to accept that we are already well into a normal, cyclical recession/bear market," said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. "Investors' bullishness towards Europe remains intact, but conviction is rooted to the floor. The positioning gap between the most and least preferred sectors is the lowest in two years," said James Barty, head of European equity strategy. Fund Manager Survey An overall total of 211 panelists with US$610 billion...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: newsroom.bankofamerica.com
  • 8:38 AM » US housing starts, permits fall 2.5%
    Published Wed, Jan 20 2016 8:38 AM by CNBC
    U.S. housing starts and permits fell in December after hefty gains the prior month.
  • 12:52 AM » Freddie Mac Prices First Guaranteed Multifamily Small Balance Loan Securitization of 2016
    Published Wed, Jan 20 2016 12:52 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Prices First Guaranteed Multifamily Small Balance Loan Securitization of 2016
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • Tue, Jan 19 2016
  • 4:31 PM » Weak 2016 start triggers flight to safety
    Published Tue, Jan 19 2016 4:31 PM by CNBC
    BofA says asset managers have cut their S&P 500 position to a "record low."
  • 2:40 PM » Big banks retreating from home loan business
    Published Tue, Jan 19 2016 2:40 PM by CNBC
    Big banks' dependable revenue from mortgages has been challenged; some are taking flight.
  • 2:40 PM » For Bond Dealers, It's Not Too Soon to Lower 2016 Treasury Calls
    Published Tue, Jan 19 2016 2:40 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg For Bond Dealers, It's Not Too Soon to Lower 2016 Treasury Calls Bloomberg Less than three weeks into the new year, two of Wall Street's biggest bond dealers are already dialing back the 2016 Treasury yield calls they made at the end of 2015. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG reduced forecasts for 10-year yields at ... and more »
  • 2:39 PM » Real losers of Miami real estate boom
    Published Tue, Jan 19 2016 2:39 PM by CNBC
    Miamians as a whole have scarcely benefited from the glitz.
  • 10:51 AM » Homebuilder sentiment stalls at 60 in January
    Published Tue, Jan 19 2016 10:51 AM by CNBC
    Homebuilders may be reconsidering their bullish projections for a strong housing recovery as a monthly survey of sentiment held steady in January.
  • 10:51 AM » Wells Fargo Survey: Optimism Softens Among Construction Industry Executives
    Published Tue, Jan 19 2016 10:51 AM by www.wellsfargo.com
    Wells Fargo Survey: Optimism Softens Among Construction Industry Executives<br/>https://www.wellsfargo.com/about/press/2016/optimism-softens-construction-industry_0119.content
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.wellsfargo.com
  • 8:52 AM » Bank of America Reports Q4-15 Net Income of $3.3B, EPS of $0.28
    Published Tue, Jan 19 2016 8:52 AM by newsroom.bankofamerica.com
    Dateline City: CHARLOTTE, N.C. Full-Year 2015 Net Income of $15.9B, EPS of $1.31 (1) Bank of America (NYSE: BAC): Financial Highlights 2 Business Highlights 2 Consumer Banking • Revenue, net of interest expense, (FTE basis) up 4% to $19.8B (A) • Net interest income (NII) (FTE basis) up 2% to $10.0B (A) - Excluding market-related NII and other adjustments (A) , NII was $10.5B, compared to $10.3B in Q3-15 and $10.4B in Q4-14 • Noninterest income up 7% to $9.7B • Provision for credit losses $0.8B, compared to $0.8B in Q3-15 and $0.2B in Q4-14 • Noninterest expense declined 2% to $13.9B; excluding litigation, noninterest expense declined 3% to $13.4B (B) • Net income up 9% to $3.3B; earnings per diluted share $0.28, compared to $0.25 Previously Disclosed Q4-15 Items • ($0.03) per share for reduction to NII for certain trust preferred securities • ($0.03) per share for negative impact of U.K. tax law changes Balance Sheet, Capital and Liquidity • Common equity tier 1 capital (transition) of $163.0B; Common equity tier 1 capital (fully phased-in) of $154.1B (C) • Global Excess Liquidity Sources increased $65B to record $504B; time to required funding at 39 months (D) • Total deposit balances up $78B to $1.2T • Return on average assets 0.61%; return on average common equity 5.1%; return on average tangible common equity 7.3% (E) • Tangible book value per share (F) increased 8% to $15.62; book value per share increased 6% to $22.54 • Returned $4.5B in capital to shareholders in 2015 through common stock repurchases and dividends • Loans up $12B, deposits up $48B 2 • Brokerage assets up 8% • Total mortgage production up 13% • Total U.S. credit card spending up 5% Global Wealth and Investment Management • Total client balances of nearly $2.5T • Long-term assets under management flows of $7B in Q4-15 • Loans up $12B, deposits up $16B 2 Global Banking • Loans up $37B, deposits up $16B 2 • No. 3 in Global Investment Banking fees (G) • Participated in 8 of top 10 debt deals and 7...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: newsroom.bankofamerica.com
  • 8:52 AM » IMF cuts global growth forecast as China, falling oil prices weigh
    Published Tue, Jan 19 2016 8:52 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecasts for the third time in less than a year on Tuesday, citing a sharp slowdown in China trade and weak commodity prices that are hammering Brazil and other emerging markets.
  • 8:51 AM » What Have We Learned From Transferring Credit Risk?
    Published Tue, Jan 19 2016 8:51 AM by Freddie Mac
    By SVP Kevin Palmer, Credit Risk Transfer A new asset class sprang to life in July 2013 when Freddie Mac introduced our Structured Agency Credit Risk (STACR®) security. This also marked the beginning of a new strategy to expand our efforts to sell credit risk on single-family mortgages we purchase and guarantee to private investors. Read More
  • 12:53 AM » Fed's $216 Billion Treasuries Rollover Recalls Crisis Era Buying
    Published Tue, Jan 19 2016 12:53 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Fed's $216 Billion Treasuries Rollover Recalls Crisis Era Buying Bloomberg If you were under the impression that the Federal Reserve was done buying Treasuries, think again. While the central bank won't be expanding its balance sheet, about $216 billion of Treasuries in its portfolio mature in 2016, up from negligible amounts ... and more »
  • 12:53 AM » Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December and Post-Mortem on November
    Published Tue, Jan 19 2016 12:53 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From housing economist Tim Lawler: Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.36 million in December, up 12.6% from November's preliminary pace and up 5.7% from last Decembers seasonally adjusted pace. The bounce back in sales from November's "shockingly" low pace - which occurred in many but by no means all markets across the country - strongly suggests that the new "TRID" disclosure rules and/or documents artificially depressed the pace of home sales in November - though by the same token they may have artificially inflated slightly the pace of sales in December. As noted above, the bounce-back in sales last month was not only uneven across the country, but uneven even across different markets in the same state. Here are a few examples (the YOY increase in sales are based on preliminary reports). YOY % Change, Home Sales   Nov-15 Dec-15 North Texas 8.7% 20.1% Houston -10.5% -9.3% Triangle Region -1.0% 13.1% Charlotte -3.3% -2.6% Toledo -7.0% 16.0% Columbus 4.0% 6.0% Tucson 3.5% 15.9% Phoenix 6.5% 3.8% On the inventory front, I forecast that the inventory of existing home sales at the end of December as estimated by the National Association of Realtors will be 1.81 million, down 11.3% from November's preliminary level and down 2.7% from last December. Finally I expect that the NAR's estimate of the median existing SF home sales price for December will be up 6.7% from last December. CR Note: Existing home sales for December will be released on Friday, and the consensus is for sales of 5.19 million SAAR. And from Lawler: Post-Mortem on November Existing Home Sales ... In its report on November home sales released on December 22nd, the National Association of Realtors estimated that US existing home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:52 AM » Oil stays under pressure as Iran orders sharp rise in crude output
    Published Tue, Jan 19 2016 12:52 AM by Reuters
    SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil futures remained under pressure in early trading on Tuesday, following a slide that has seen prices fall by more than a quarter since the beginning of the year, as the full return of Iran to oil markets adds to an already huge supply overhang.
  • 12:52 AM » FNC: Residential Property Values increased 6.0% year-over-year in November
    Published Tue, Jan 19 2016 12:52 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    In addition to Case-Shiller, and CoreLogic, I'm also watching the FNC, Zillow and several other house price indexes. FNC released their November 2015  index data .  FNC reported that their Residential Price Index™ (RPI) indicates that U.S. residential property values were unchanged from October to November (Composite 100 index, not seasonally adjusted).  The 10 city MSA increased 0.5% (NSA), the 20-MSA RPI increased 0.2%, and the 30-MSA RPI increased 0.1% in November. These indexes are not seasonally adjusted (NSA), and are for non-distressed home sales (excluding foreclosure auction sales, REO sales, and short sales). Notes: In addition to the composite indexes, FNC presents price indexes for 30 MSAs. FNC also provides seasonally adjusted data. The index is still down 14.5% from the peak in 2006 (not inflation adjusted). Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the year-over-year change based on the FNC index (four composites) through November 2015. The FNC indexes are hedonic price indexes using a blend of sold homes and real-time appraisals. Most of the other indexes are also showing the year-over-year change in the mid single digit range. Note: The November Case-Shiller index will be released on Tuesday, January 26th.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:52 AM » U.S. stocks post worst 10-day calendar start in history
    Published Tue, Jan 19 2016 12:52 AM by Market Watch
    U.S. stocks ended the day with sharp losses Friday, posting the worst 10-day calendar start in history. A combination of plunging crude-oil prices and worries about slowing growth in the U.S. and China unsettled investors. Stocks trimmed their losses in the last hour of trading, but remained sharply lower. The S&P 500 closed 45 points, or 2.3%, lower at 1,876, with financials, information technology and energy leading the losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 392 points, or 2.4%, to 15,987. Intel led the Dow industrials lower, down more than 9%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite ended the day down 127 points, or 2.7%, at 4,488.
  • Fri, Jan 15 2016
  • 2:53 PM » CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices "Continued Climb" in November, up 12% year-over-year
    Published Fri, Jan 15 2016 2:53 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Here is a price index for commercial real estate that I follow.  From CoStar: CRE Prices Continued Upward Climb in November STRONG FUNDAMENTALS AND CAPITAL FLOWS SUPPORTED BROAD CRE PRICE GROWTH IN NOVEMBER. U.S. commercial real estate continued to post broad price gains in November 2015, with market fundamentals reflecting healthy levels of absorption and continued rental gains, even as construction levels slowly increased. The two broadest measures of aggregate pricing for commercial properties within the CCRSI - the value-weighted U.S. Composite Index and the equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index - each increased by 0.9% in November 2015 , contributing to annual gains of 12.2% and 11.7%, respectively, for the 12 months ended November 2015 . emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph from CoStar shows the the value-weighted U.S. Composite Index and the equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index indexes. The value-weighted index increased 0.9% in November and is up 12.2% year-over-year. The equal-weighted index increased 0.9% in November and up 11.7% year-over-year. Note: These are repeat sales indexes - like Case-Shiller for residential - but this is based on far fewer pairs.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:12 PM » Rate drop: House hunters get a break
    Published Fri, Jan 15 2016 12:12 PM by CNBC
    The plummeting stock market is giving potential homebuyers an unexpected boost, in the form of lower mortgage rates.
  • 10:56 AM » Chinese GDP to worry central banks at home and abroad
    Published Fri, Jan 15 2016 10:56 AM by Reuters
    FRANKFURT (Reuters) - China is set to report its weakest full-year growth figure in 25 years on Tuesday on the back of slowing output and sagging investments, troubling news that will likely dominate discussion at the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada policy meetings.
  • 10:56 AM » This is not 2008—it's actually worse
    Published Fri, Jan 15 2016 10:56 AM by CNBC
    We are long overdue for a recession-and it will be much worse than 2008, says Michael Pento.
  • 10:56 AM » IRS: shorter wait, fewer audits in 2016
    Published Fri, Jan 15 2016 10:56 AM by CNBC
    The Internal Revenue Service hopes to better answer taxpayers with questions with shorter phone waiting times. The USAToday reports.
  • 10:21 AM » Fed Releases 2010 Transcripts, Shining Light on a Tumultuous Year - Wall Street Journal
    Published Fri, Jan 15 2016 10:21 AM by www.wsj.com
    Wall Street Journal Fed Releases 2010 Transcripts, Shining Light on a Tumultuous Year Wall Street Journal "In recent months, however, that sense of common purpose has waned." The U.S. currency ended up rising. Inflation has remained below the Fed's 2% target for more than 3½ years, after briefly rising. Write to Jon Hilsenrath at jon . hilsenrath @wsj.com.
  • 10:21 AM » Business inventories decline
    Published Fri, Jan 15 2016 10:21 AM by CNBC
    Business inventories in November posted their biggest drop since 2011 as businesses stepped up efforts to reduce stockpiles of unsold merchandise.
  • 10:20 AM » Consumer sentiment hits 93.3 in January vs 93 expected
    Published Fri, Jan 15 2016 10:20 AM by CNBC
    Consumer sentiment hits 93.3 in January vs 93 expected|| 103308047
  • 9:09 AM » Retail Sales decreased 0.1% in December
    Published Fri, Jan 15 2016 9:09 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    On a monthly basis, retail sales were down 0.1% from November to December (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 2.2% from December 2014. From the Census Bureau report : The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $448.1 billion, a decrease of 0.1 percent from the previous month, and 2.2 percent above December 2014. Total sales for the 12 months of 2015 were up 2.1 percent from 2014. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales ex-gasoline was unchanged. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Retail and Food service sales ex-gasoline increased by 3.9% on a YoY basis (22.2% for all retail sales including gasoline). The increase in December was below expectations of unchanged, however retailed sales for November were revised up from a 0.2% increase to a 0.4% increase. The headline number was weak, however sales ex-gasoline are up a solid 3.9% YoY.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:08 AM » US 10-year yield plunges below 2%
    Published Fri, Jan 15 2016 9:08 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices were higher on Friday as investors digested a host of important data.
  • 9:07 AM » Markets in 'stealth bear market': Pro
    Published Fri, Jan 15 2016 9:07 AM by CNBC
    James Liu, J.P. Morgan Funds, and Jurrien Timmer,Fidelity Investments, share their thoughts on the markets and outlook for earnings growth this year.
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Mortgage Rates:
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