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  • Mon, Jun 5 2017
  • 8:21 AM » Bond Traders Enter Fed Blackout Betting a Hike Won't Quash Rally
    Published Mon, Jun 05 2017 8:21 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Bond Traders Enter Fed Blackout Betting a Hike Won't Quash Rally Bloomberg Before heading into the darkness of the Federal Reserve's blackout period, bond traders loaded up on Treasuries. U.S. government debt rallied Friday, driving longer-term yields to the lowest this year, after Labor Department figures showed payrolls and ...
  • Fri, Jun 2 2017
  • 4:23 PM » U.S. stocks close at record for second session in a row
    Published Fri, Jun 02 2017 4:23 PM by Market Watch
    U.S. stocks closed at records for a second straight session on Friday as tepid jobs growth in May highlighted the possibility that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates just one more time this year rather than the widely expected two. Data from the Labor Department showed that the U.S. economy added 138,000 jobs last month, signficantly below the 185,000 projected in a MarketWatch survey. The S&P 500 climbed 8 points, or 0.3%, to close at 2,438 for a weekly gain of 0.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average close up 55 points, or 0.3%, to 21,200, adding 0.6% on the week. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 58 points, or 0.8%, to close at 6,305, for a weekly rally of 1.5%.
  • 4:22 PM » Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump
    Published Fri, Jun 02 2017 4:22 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms.  We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers - we could use Speaker of the House, or any other marker. NOTE: Several readers have asked if I could add a lag to these graphs (obviously a new President has zero impact on employment for the month they are elected). But that would open a debate on the proper length of the lag, so I'll just stick to the beginning of each term. Important: There are many differences between these periods. Overall employment was smaller in the '80s, however the participation rate was increasing in the '80s (younger population and women joining the labor force), and the participation rate is generally declining now.  But these graphs give an overview of employment changes. The first graph shows the change in private sector payroll jobs from when each president took office until the end of their term(s). Presidents Carter and George H.W. Bush only served one term, and President Obama is in the final months of his second term. Mr. G.W. Bush (red) took office following the bursting of the stock market bubble, and left during the bursting of the housing bubble. Mr. Obama (blue) took office during the financial crisis and great recession. There was also a significant recession in the early '80s right after Mr. Reagan (yellow) took office. There was a recession towards the end of President G.H.W. Bush (purple) term, and Mr Clinton (light blue) served for eight years without a recession. Click on graph for larger image. The first graph is for private employment only. Mr. Trump is in Orange (just four months). The employment recovery during Mr. G.W. Bush's (red) first term was sluggish, and private employment was down 811,000 jobs at the end of his first term.   At the end of Mr. Bush's second term, private employment was collapsing, and there were net 396,000 private sector jobs...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 4:21 PM » Bonds and the stock market are rallying at the same time, and it's befuddling investors
    Published Fri, Jun 02 2017 4:21 PM by Market Watch
    The stock market is surging to records on Friday, while government bonds are in rally mode, pushing long-dated Treasury yields to their lowest levels in seven months, marking a puzzling dynamic on Wall Street.
  • 1:16 PM » El-Erian Says Liquidity Trade Replaced Trump as Market Catalyst - Bloomberg
    Published Fri, Jun 02 2017 1:16 PM by Bloomberg
    El-Erian Says Liquidity Trade Replaced Trump as Market Catalyst Bloomberg Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz SE and Bloomberg View columnist, discusses how the May U.S. jobs report may impact the Federal Reserve's rate path. He speaks on 'Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas.' (El-Erian is a Bloomberg View ... and more »
  • 12:47 PM » Fed's Harker still sees three rate hikes this year, calls May payrolls number 'good'
    Published Fri, Jun 02 2017 12:47 PM by CNBC
    Fed's Harker still sees three rate hikes this year, calls May payrolls number 'good'|| 104451916
  • 11:04 AM » Weak May jobs growth raises doubts about how much Fed can raise interest rates this year
    Published Fri, Jun 02 2017 11:04 AM by CNBC
    May's weak hiring should not deter the Fed from raising rates in June, but it puts any further hikes in doubt.
  • 10:12 AM » We just found out the Fed's rate path may be too aggressive, ex-Obama advisor Goolsbee says
    Published Fri, Jun 02 2017 10:12 AM by CNBC
    The much-weaker-than-expected growth in jobs shows the economy is expanding only modestly, Austan Goolsbee tells CNBC.
  • 9:15 AM » Traders keep bets on June rate hike after jobs report
    Published Fri, Jun 02 2017 9:15 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - U.S. short-term interest rate futures were little changed on Friday after a government report showed employers added fewer jobs than expected but the unemployment rate dropped to a 16-year low.
  • 9:06 AM » The government says unemployment fell to 4.3% in May, but here's a more realistic rate
    Published Fri, Jun 02 2017 9:06 AM by CNBC
    The Labor Department says the unemployment rate was at 4.3 percent, but there's a bigger story behind that one number.
  • 8:37 AM » May Jobs Report: 138,000 More On Payrolls; Unemployment Dips Slightly
    Published Fri, Jun 02 2017 8:37 AM by www.npr.org
    Economists had been expecting to see the U.S. economy gain about 185,000 jobs.
  • 8:28 AM » Trump allies push new Fannie and Freddie reform plan
    Published Fri, Jun 02 2017 8:28 AM by CNBC
    Two investment groups are pitching a new plan that would free the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from US government control, the FT reports.
  • Thu, Jun 1 2017
  • 2:49 PM » CFPB May 2017 complaint report highlights complaints from older consumers
    Published Thu, Jun 01 2017 2:49 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    The CFPB has issued its May 2017 complaint report highlighting complaints from “older consumers,” who the CFPB defines as consumers who voluntarily reported their age as 62 or older. The CFPB reports that consumers voluntarily reported their age in 54 percent of complaints. General findings include the following: As of April 1, 2017, the CFPB... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 2:49 PM » May Employment Preview
    Published Thu, Jun 01 2017 2:49 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for May. The consensus, according to Bloomberg , is for an increase of 185,000 non-farm payroll jobs in May (with a range of estimates between 140,000 to 231,000), and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.4%. The BLS reported 211,000 jobs added in April. Here is a summary of recent data: • The ADP employment report showed an increase of 253,000 private sector payroll jobs in May. This was well above expectations of 170,000 private sector payroll jobs added. The ADP report hasn't been very useful in predicting the BLS report for any one month, but in general, this suggests employment growth above expectations . • The ISM manufacturing employment index increased in May to 53.5%. A historical correlation between the ISM manufacturing employment index and the BLS employment report for manufacturing, suggests that private sector BLS manufacturing payroll was unchanged in May. The ADP report indicated 8,000 manufacturing jobs added in May. The ISM non-manufacturing employment index for May hasn't been released yet. • Initial weekly unemployment claims averaged 238,000 in May, down from 243,000 in April. For the BLS reference week (includes the 12th of the month), initial claims were at 233,000, down from 243,000 during the reference week in April. The decrease during the reference week suggests fewer layoffs during the reference week in May than in April. This suggests a somewhat stronger employment report in May than in April. • The final  May University of Michigan consumer sentiment index increased slightly to 97.1 from the April reading of 97.0. Sentiment is frequently coincident with changes in the labor market, but there are other factors too like gasoline prices and politics. • Conclusion: None of the indicators alone is very good at predicting the initial BLS employment report.  The ADP report...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:48 PM » Gallup Good Jobs Rate Rises in May
    Published Thu, Jun 01 2017 2:48 PM by www.gallup.com
    All four Gallup employment measures improved or held steady in May, with the Gallup Good Jobs rate rising nearly one percentage point to 45.4%.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.gallup.com
  • 1:45 PM » Mortgage Rates Slide to Fresh 2017 Low as Inflation Slips Through Fed's Fingers
    Published Thu, Jun 01 2017 1:45 PM by www.realtor.com
    The benchmark rate for home loans remained in free fall in the most recent week mortgage provider Freddie Mac said Thursday. The post Mortgage Rates Slide to Fresh 2017 Low as Inflation Slips Through Fed's Fingers appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 1:31 PM » Here's What the Fed Will Be Watching for in the Jobs Report
    Published Thu, Jun 01 2017 1:31 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Here's What the Fed Will Be Watching for in the Jobs Report Bloomberg President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen agree on at least one thing: The underemployment rate is worth watching to monitor labor-market slack, and its recent plunge is welcome news for Americans who've missed out on the jobs ... and more »
  • 1:08 PM » Paulson, Blackstone Said to Back Plan for Freeing Fannie-Freddie
    Published Thu, Jun 01 2017 1:08 PM by Bloomberg
    Paulson, Blackstone Said to Back Plan for Freeing Fannie-Freddie Bloomberg Paulson & Co. and Blackstone Group LP are among investors backing a proposal that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac be recapitalized and released from U.S. control without legislation. Taxpayers would receive as much as $100 billion, according to the plan, ...
  • 12:10 PM » Construction Spending decreased in April
    Published Thu, Jun 01 2017 12:10 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Earlier today, the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased in April: Construction spending during April 2017 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,218.5 billion, 1.4 percent below the revised March estimate of $1,235.5 billion. Both private and public spending decreased in April: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $943.3 billion, 0.7 percent below the revised March estimate of $949.7 billion. ... In April, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $275.3 billion, 3.7 percent below the revised March estimate of $285.9 billion. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. Private residential spending has been generally increasing, and is still 24% below the bubble peak. Non-residential spending is now 3% above the previous peak in January 2008 (nominal dollars). Public construction spending is now 15% below the peak in March 2009, and only 4% above the austerity low in February 2014. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending. On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 16%. Non-residential spending is up 4% year-over-year. Public spending is down 4% year-over-year. Looking forward, all categories of construction spending should increase in 2017 (maybe not public spending). This was below the consensus forecast of a 0.5% increase for April, however spending for March was revised up sharply.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:56 AM » U.S. Homes Are Finally Shrinking - Bloomberg
    Published Thu, Jun 01 2017 11:56 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg U.S. Homes Are Finally Shrinking Bloomberg The median home size decreased slightly in 2016, but it's still historically high at a time when smaller houses are in demand. by. Patrick Clark. @pat_clark More stories by Patrick Clark. Thu Jun 01 2017 08:06:35 GMT-0700 (PDT). It's not quite a tiny ...
  • 10:49 AM » Changes coming to bank stress tests, Fed's Powell says
    Published Thu, Jun 01 2017 10:49 AM by CNBC
    The Federal Reserve will be making some of its own changes to the way it regulates banks, ahead of a likely push from the Trump administration to loosen up post-financial crisis rules.
  • 10:11 AM » ISM Manufacturing index increased to 54.9 in May
    Published Thu, Jun 01 2017 10:11 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in May. The PMI was at 54.9% in May, up from 54.8% in April. The employment index was at 53.5%, up from 52.0% last month, and the new orders index was at 59.5%, up from 57.5%. From the Institute for Supply Management: May 2017 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in May, and the overall economy grew for the 96th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: " The May PMI® registered 54.9 percent , an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the April reading of 54.8 percent. The New Orders Index registered 59.5 percent, an increase of 2 percentage points from the April reading of 57.5 percent. The Production Index registered 57.1 percent, a 1.5 percentage points decrease compared to the April reading of 58.6 percent. The Employment Index registered 53.5 percent , an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the April reading of 52 percent. The Inventories Index registered 51.5 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage point from the April reading of 51 percent. The Prices Index registered 60.5 percent in May, a decrease of 8 percentage points from the April reading of 68.5 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the 15th consecutive month, but at a noticeably slower rate of increase in May compared with April. Comments from the panel generally reflect stable to growing business conditions, with new orders, employment and inventories of raw materials all growing in May compared to April. The slowing of pricing pressure, especially in basic commodities, should have a positive impact on margins and buying policies as this moderation moves up the value chain." emphasis added Click on...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:11 AM » 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Moves Lower
    Published Thu, Jun 01 2017 10:11 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Moves Lower
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 9:03 AM » U.S. private sector adds 253,000 jobs in May: ADP
    Published Thu, Jun 01 2017 9:03 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - U.S. private employers added 253,000 jobs in May, above economists' expectations, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Thursday.
  • 9:03 AM » US jobless claims rose to 248,000 last week
    Published Thu, Jun 01 2017 9:03 AM by CNBC
    WASHINGTON- More people sought U.S. unemployment benefits last week, the second straight week of increases, though levels remain historically low. The Labor Department says applications for weekly unemployment aid rose 13,000 to 248,000. The four-week average, a less volatile figure, rose 2,500 to 238,000.. Applications are a close indication of layoffs.
  • 8:23 AM » Job growth 'rip-roaring' in May on boom in construction, services: ADP
    Published Thu, Jun 01 2017 8:23 AM by CNBC
    Economists expected the ADP report to show that private payrolls grew by 185,000 in May.
  • 8:14 AM » Bond market's recession warning is at odds with the stock market trading near all-time highs
    Published Thu, Jun 01 2017 8:14 AM by CNBC
    Stocks are near record highs, a sharp contrast with the bond market where interest rates have been sinking.
  • Wed, May 31 2017
  • 4:49 PM » Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in April, Lowest since January 2008
    Published Wed, May 31 2017 4:49 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined to 1.07% in April, from 1.12% in March. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.40% in April 2016. This is the lowest serious delinquency rate since January 2008. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".  The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%. Click on graph for larger image Although the rate is declining, the "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%.  The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate has fallen 0.33 percentage points over the last year, and at that rate of improvement, the serious delinquency rate will not be below 1% until this Summer. Note: Freddie Mac reported earlier.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 4:17 PM » Fed's Kaplan Sticks to Rate Forecast Despite Inflation Weakness - Bloomberg
    Published Wed, May 31 2017 4:17 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Fed's Kaplan Sticks to Rate Forecast Despite Inflation Weakness Bloomberg Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan is sticking to his outlook for two more interest-rate increases this year, even as he acknowledged recent declines in U.S. core inflation. "I am concerned," Kaplan told reporters Wednesday ... and more »
  • 3:09 PM » A region-by-region breakdown of where the Fed sees the economy now
    Published Wed, May 31 2017 3:09 PM by CNBC
    The U.S. economy continued to grow a steady, if sluggish, pace from early April through late May, according to the Federal Reserve's latest survey.
  • 2:33 PM » U.S. economy ambles on but few signs of inflation pressures: Fed
    Published Wed, May 31 2017 2:33 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy expanded at a modest to moderate pace from early April through late May but showed little sign of breaking out of a recent trend of sluggish inflation, a survey conducted by the Federal Reserve showed on
  • 12:57 PM » Financial Institution Regulatory Agencies Issue Advisory on Appraiser Availability
    Published Wed, May 31 2017 12:57 PM by content.govdelivery.com
    Press Release Financial Institution Regulatory Agencies Issue Advisory on Appraiser Availability FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE May 31, 2017 Joint Release WASHINGTON-Responding to concerns over the limited availability of state-certified and -licensed appraisers, particularly in rural areas, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the National Credit Union Administration, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency today issued an advisory that highlights two options to help insured depository institutions and bank holding companies facilitate the timely consideration of loan applications. Financial industry representatives, during the Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act (EGRPRA) review process , raised concerns regarding the timeliness of appraisals, which they attributed to shortfalls in the availability of state-certified and -licensed appraisers, particularly in rural areas. Title XI of the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery, and Enforcement Act of 1989 (FIRREA) requires appraisals for federally related transactions to be performed by individuals who meet certain state-certification or -licensing requirements. Today's advisory points to alternatives that may help in areas facing a shortage of appraisers: The first option highlighted in the advisory, temporary practice permits, allows appraisers credentialed in one state to provide their services on a temporary basis in another state experiencing a shortage of appraisers, subject to state law. The advisory also discusses reciprocity, in which one state allows appraisers that are certified or licensed in another state to obtain certification or licensing without having to meet all of the state's certification or licensing standards. The second option, temporary waivers, sets aside requirements relating to the certification or licensing of individuals to perform appraisals under Title XI of FIRREA in states or geographic political...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: content.govdelivery.com
  • 10:06 AM » Pending home sales drop 1.3% in April as spring housing market shows weakness
    Published Wed, May 31 2017 10:06 AM by CNBC
    Pending home sales had last slipped 0.8 percent in March, the National Association of Realtors reported last month.
  • 9:21 AM » Here's how long it will take millennials to afford to buy a home nationwide
    Published Wed, May 31 2017 9:21 AM by CNBC
    80 percent of millennials would like to become homeowners but few can afford to buy.
  • 9:21 AM » NY Real Estate Developer Pleads Guilty to Interfering in Local Election
    Published Wed, May 31 2017 9:21 AM by www.builderonline.com
    Kenneth Nakdimen was trying to advance stalled construction projects.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.builderonline.com
  • 9:16 AM » US Treasurys lower as bond investors eye Fed news, data
    Published Wed, May 31 2017 9:16 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices edged lower Wednesday, as investors geared up for the release of the Fed's Beige Book, along with speeches from Fed officials.
  • Tue, May 30 2017
  • 3:18 PM » US Economic Confidence Index Stable at +3
    Published Tue, May 30 2017 3:18 PM by www.gallup.com
    Americans' confidence in the U.S. economy remains slightly positive, with Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index registering +3 for the week ending May 28.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.gallup.com
  • 1:18 PM » Brainard sees U.S. rate hikes but eyeing soft inflation
    Published Tue, May 30 2017 1:18 PM by Reuters
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - A U.S. interest-rate hike is probably coming soon though the Federal Reserve may want to delay if recently soft inflation readings continue, an influential Fed governor said on Tuesday, adding she also backs shrinking the central bank's bond portfolio "before too long."
  • 1:18 PM » Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in March
    Published Tue, May 30 2017 1:18 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.8% year-over-year in March It has been more than ten years since the bubble peak. In the Case-Shiller release this morning, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 2.4% above the previous bubble peak. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is still about 13.8% below the bubble peak. The year-over-year increase in prices is mostly moving sideways now just over 5%. In March, the index was up 5.8% YoY. In the earlier post , I graphed nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms (inflation adjusted).  Case-Shiller, CoreLogic and others report nominal house prices.  As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be close to $278,000 today adjusted for inflation (39%).  That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices (adjusted for inflation). Nominal House Prices The first graph shows the monthly Case-Shiller National Index SA, the monthly Case-Shiller Composite 20 SA, and the CoreLogic House Price Indexes (through March) in nominal terms as reported. In nominal terms, the Case-Shiller National index (SA) is at a new peak, and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 Index (SA) is back to October 2005 levels, and the CoreLogic index (NSA) is back to October 2005. Real House Prices The second graph shows the same three indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter). Note: some people use other inflation measures to adjust for real prices. In real terms, the National index is back to May 2004 levels, the Composite 20 index is back to March 2004, and the CoreLogic index back to March 2004. In real terms, house prices are back to early 2004 levels. Price-to-Rent In October 2004, Fed economist John Krainer and researcher Chishen Wei wrote a Fed letter on price...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:18 PM » Atlanta Fed raises U.S. second-quarter GDP growth view to 3.8 percent
    Published Tue, May 30 2017 12:18 PM by Reuters
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. economy is expected to grow at a 3.8 percent annualized pace in the second quarter based on a report that showed an increase in personal spending in April, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDP Now forecast model showed on Tuesday.
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