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  • Thu, Jan 23 2020
  • 11:21 AM » ECB's Lagarde launches policy overhaul that will leave no stone unturned
    Published Thu, Jan 23 2020 11:21 AM by Reuters
    The European Central Bank launched a broad review of its policy on Thursday that is likely to see new President Christine Lagarde redefine the ECB's main goal and how to achieve it.
  • 10:59 AM » Over $63 Million to Be Returned to Investors in Alleged Real Estate Investment Fraud
    Published Thu, Jan 23 2020 10:59 AM by SEC
    The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced that it has obtained a court order authorizing the distribution of over $63 million to investors in connection with a previously filed action. This amount represents the full return of funds to
  • 10:59 AM » Remodelers' Confidence Increases in Fourth Quarter of 2019
    Published Thu, Jan 23 2020 10:59 AM by
    The National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) Remodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a reading of 58 in the fourth quarter of 2019, up three points from the previous quarter (Figure 1). The RMI has been consistently above 50-indicating that more remodelers report market activity is higher compared to the prior quarter than report it is lower-since the second quarter of... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 10:10 AM » Wall St opens lower on virus scare, mixed earnings
    Published Thu, Jan 23 2020 10:10 AM by Reuters
    U.S. stocks opened lower on Thursday on rising worries over the coronavirus outbreak in China that prompted a lockdown of two cities in the country, while a mixed bag of results added to the dour sentiment.
  • 9:30 AM » Dimon says the only financial market bubble out there right now is in sovereign debt
    Published Thu, Jan 23 2020 9:30 AM by CNBC
    J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday the only financial market bubble he sees right now is in government red ink.
  • 9:28 AM » Jamie Dimon says his one big worry is negative interest rates
    Published Thu, Jan 23 2020 9:28 AM by CNBC
    J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC on Wednesday that negative interest rates are one of the only things that concern him in a market that's otherwise in a "Goldilocks place."
  • 9:15 AM » US weekly jobless claims increase less than expected
    Published Thu, Jan 23 2020 9:15 AM by CNBC
    First-time claims for state unemployment benefits were expected to total 215,000 in the most recent week, up from the 204,000 claims reported for the previous week.
  • 9:14 AM » White House has started work on second round of tax cuts to boost growth, Mnuchin says
    Published Thu, Jan 23 2020 9:14 AM by CNBC
    White House has started work on second round of tax cuts to boost growth, Mnuchin says<br/>
  • 8:19 AM » Treasury yields slide as China coronavirus spreads
    Published Thu, Jan 23 2020 8:19 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices were higher on Thursday morning as the death toll resulting from the China coronavirus continues to rise.
  • 8:13 AM » Virus fears sap stocks; ECB gets ready for rethink
    Published Thu, Jan 23 2020 8:13 AM by Reuters
    World shares fell on Thursday, led by the biggest tumble in Chinese stocks in more than eight months, as concern mounted about a new coronavirus outbreak in China.
  • Wed, Jan 22 2020
  • 4:00 PM » Earnings, ECB decision, job market check: 3 things to watch for in the markets on Thursday
    Published Wed, Jan 22 2020 4:00 PM by CNBC
    We'll get earnings from Intel and Procter & Gamble, a rate decision from the ECB and weekly jobless claims on Thursday.
  • 1:01 PM » Black Knight's First Look: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in December
    Published Wed, Jan 22 2020 1:01 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From Black Knight: Black Knight's First Look: Strong Close to 2019 Pushes Mortgage Delinquency Rate to Near Record Low • Mortgage delinquencies fell by nearly 4% month-over-month to within 0.04% of the record low set in May 2019 and more than 12% below last year's level • The national foreclosure rate fell again in December to reach a new 14-year low, and the lowest on record outside the final five months of 2005 • 2019 ended with just over two million borrowers past due on their mortgage (including active foreclosures) - down 236,000 from the same time last year and the lowest year-end volume since the turn of the century • After falling by 19% in November, prepayment rates ticked upward in December, suggesting that the recent leveling off of interest rates has had a flattening effect on refinance activity According to Black Knight's First Look report for December, the percent of loans delinquent decreased in December compared to November, and decreased 12.4% year-over-year. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased 1.6% in December and were down 11.6% over the last year. Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 3.40% in December, down from 3.53% in November. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased to 0.46% from 0.47% in November. Black Knight: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process   Dec 2019 Nov 2019 Dec 2018 Dec 2017 Delinquent 3.40% 3.53% 3.88% 4.71% In Foreclosure 0.46% 0.47% 0.52% 0.65% Number of properties: Number of properties that are delinquent, but not in foreclosure: 1,803,000 1,868,000 2,013,000 2,412,000 Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory: 245,000 248,000 271,000 331,000 Total Properties Delinquent or in foreclosure 2,047,000 2,116,000 2,283,000 2,743,000
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:01 PM » Age-Restricted Homes Slightly Smaller, Pricier than Others Started in 2018
    Published Wed, Jan 22 2020 1:01 PM by
    Of the roughly 875,000 single-family and 375,0000 multifamily homes started in 2018, 29,000 and 31,000, respectively, were age-restricted according to NAHB tabulation of data from the Survey of Construction (SOC, conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau and partially funded by HUD). A housing development can legally restrict the ages of its residents, provided it conforms to one of the set... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 10:42 AM » Trump threatens big tariffs on car imports from EU
    Published Wed, Jan 22 2020 10:42 AM by Reuters
    U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday threatened to impose high tariffs on imports of cars from the European Union if the bloc doesn't agree to a trade deal.
  • 9:37 AM » Chicago Fed "Index Points to Slower Economic Growth in December"
    Published Wed, Jan 22 2020 9:37 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Chicago Fed: Chicago Fed National Activity Index points to slower economic growth in December Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.35 in December from +0.41 in November. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from November, and three of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in December. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to -0.23 in December from -0.31 in November. emphasis added This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967. Click on graph for larger image. This suggests economic activity was below the historical trend in December (using the three-month average). According to the Chicago Fed: The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. ... A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:01 AM » Trump says Fed raising rates was a mistake: CNBC
    Published Wed, Jan 22 2020 8:01 AM by Reuters
    The United States' economy would be growing at a pace near 4% if wasn't for the lingering effect of Federal Reserve rate hikes, President Donald Trump told CNBC in an interview on Wednesday.
  • Tue, Jan 21 2020
  • 4:27 PM » Wall St. pulls back from records on worries about virus outbreak and global growth
    Published Tue, Jan 21 2020 4:27 PM by Reuters
    Wall Street lost ground on Tuesday, backing away from record highs as a viral outbreak from China found its way to U.S. shores and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global economic growth forecast.
  • 1:26 PM » Revisiting: Has Housing Market Activity Peaked?
    Published Tue, Jan 21 2020 1:26 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    I wrote this in July 2018 (see: Has Housing Market Activity Peaked? and Has the Housing Market Peaked? (Part 2) First, I think it is likely that existing home sales will move more sideways going forward. However it is important to remember that new home sales are more important for jobs and the economy than existing home sales. Since existing sales are existing stock, the only direct contribution to GDP is the broker's commission. There is usually some additional spending with an existing home purchase - new furniture, etc. - but overall the economic impact is small compared to a new home sale. ... For the economy, what we should be focused on are single family starts and new home sales . As I noted in Investment and Recessions "New Home Sales appears to be an excellent leading indicator, and currently new home sales (and housing starts) are up solidly year-over-year, and this suggests there is no recession in sight." If new home sales and single family starts have peaked that would be a significant warning sign.   Although housing is under pressure from policy (negative impact from tax, immigration and trade policies), I do not think housing has peaked, and I think new home sales and single family starts will increase further over the next couple of years . Since that post, existing home sales have mostly moved sideways, and both new home sales and single family starts have hit new cycle highs. Here is the graph I like to use to track tops and bottoms for housing activity. This is a graph of Single family housing starts, New Home Sales, and  Residential Investment (RI) as a percent of GDP. Click on graph for larger image. The arrows point to some of the earlier peaks and troughs for these three measures. The purpose of this graph is to show that these three indicators generally reach peaks and troughs together. Note that Residential Investment is quarterly and single-family starts and new home sales are monthly. RI as a percent of GDP...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:26 PM » Share of First-Time Home Buyers Rises Significantly in the Final Quarter of 2019
    Published Tue, Jan 21 2020 1:26 PM by
    According to NAHB's latest Housing Trends Report, the share of adults who are considering purchasing a home in the next 12 months fell to 11% in the final quarter of 2019, down from 13% a year earlier. This decline marks the fifth consecutive year-over-year drop in the share of American adults planning to buy a home in the year ahead,... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 1:25 PM » Housing market falling short by nearly 4 million homes as demand grows
    Published Tue, Jan 21 2020 1:25 PM by CNBC
    Homebuilding took a sharp turn higher to end 2019, but it is far from enough to satisfy the current demand. The U.S. housing market is short nearly 4 million homes, according to a new analysis from
  • 11:46 AM » Trump again pushes negative interest rates, but Kudlow says they don't work
    Published Tue, Jan 21 2020 11:46 AM by CNBC
    Both officials spoke Tuesday at the World Economic Forum in Davos and offered different views on how effective below-zero government bond yields are on stimulating growth.
  • 10:07 AM » Retired Workers and the Overall Labor Force Participation Rate
    Published Tue, Jan 21 2020 10:07 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    In December I wrote Ten Economic Questions for 2020 . I noted that I expect the overall participation rate to start declining again in 2020, pushing down the unemployment rate . Note: Every month, with the employment report, I focus on the prime participation rate because of changing demographics - but this post is about the overall participation rate. Here is a graph of the annual change in Retired workers and dependent receiving Old-Age Social Security benefits and the annual Labor Force Participation Rate since 1970.  This doesn't mean these people are actually retiring (they may still be working), but this gives us an idea of how many people are retiring per year. Click on graph for larger image. The number of people retiring per year was declining until the late '90s, and then started increasing. The annual overall (16+ years old) participation rate peaked around 2000, and has generally been decreasing as more people retire. Note: There are other factors involved in the decline in the overall participation rate - such as more people staying in school - but retiring workers is a key. A few years ago, I predicted the overall participation rate would move mostly sideways or increase slightly as solid employment growth offset the large number of retirements. Now, given demographics, I expect to see a downward trend for the overall participation rate over the next decade, even with a healthy job market.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:28 AM » China virus sends chill through markets as risks rise
    Published Tue, Jan 21 2020 9:28 AM by Reuters
    Global stock markets took a hit on Tuesday as mounting concern about a new strain of coronavirus in China sent a ripple of risk aversion through markets.
  • 8:22 AM » Mnuchin tells WSJ that phase 2 of China trade deal may not remove all tariffs
    Published Tue, Jan 21 2020 8:22 AM by CNBC
    Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told the Wall Street Journal that the next step in trade negotiations with China may not lift tariffs.
  • 8:11 AM » Central banks join forces to look at future digital currencies
    Published Tue, Jan 21 2020 8:11 AM by Reuters
    Major central banks are looking at the case for issuing their own digital currencies, the Bank of England and European Central Bank said on Tuesday, amid a growing debate over the future of money and who controls it.
  • 8:04 AM » White House top economic advisor Larry Kudlow says economic growth will top 3% this year
    Published Tue, Jan 21 2020 8:04 AM by CNBC
    Kudlow, President Donald Trump's top economic advisor, said Tuesday that GDP growth in the U.S. should hit at least 3% in 2020.
  • Fri, Jan 17 2020
  • 4:58 PM » Wall Street hits new highs in strongest week since August
    Published Fri, Jan 17 2020 4:58 PM by Reuters
    Wall Street climbed to record highs on Friday, with major indexes turning in their strongest weekly gains since August, after strong U.S. housing data and signs of resilience in the Chinese economy raised hopes of a rebound in global growth.
  • 4:58 PM » Treasury brings back the 20-year bond to pay for the ballooning deficit
    Published Fri, Jan 17 2020 4:58 PM by CNBC
    The Treasury Department is issuing a 20-year bond for the first time in 34 years to help pay for the ballooning $1 trillion dollar budget deficit.
  • 2:40 PM » CAR on California December Housing: Sales up 7.4% YoY, Inventory down 26.5%, Lowest Inventory in "nearly seven years"
    Published Fri, Jan 17 2020 2:40 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The CAR reported: Low interest rates boost housing market in second half of year as home prices post strong gains in December, C.A.R. reports Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 398,880 units in December, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2019 if sales maintained the December pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales. December's sales total was down 1.0 percent from the 402,880 level in November and marked the first time in six months that sales fell below the 400,000 benchmark. Still, sales were up a solid 7.4 percent from December 2018 's revised 371,410 figure. For the year 2019, annual home sales fell for the second consecutive year to a preliminary 397,910 closed escrow sales in California, down from 2018's pace of 402,640. "Despite a sales slowdown at year-end, home sales were up from a year ago as interest rates remained low. It's important to note, however, that the increase was due partly to low housing demand in the prior year," said 2020 C.A.R. President Jeanne Radsick, a second-generation REALTOR® from Bakersfield, Calif. "Looking ahead, low rates should continue to provide support to the market as buyers have become more motivated to get back into the market, and home sales in California should see an improvement at the start of the year." ... "With housing supply dropping to the lowest level in nearly seven years, California experienced an unusual jump in its median price at the end of the year when the market is supposed to cool down," said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. "While low rates have been fueling demand in the second...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:40 PM » Q4 GDP Forecasts: 1.2% to 2.0%
    Published Fri, Jan 17 2020 2:40 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From Merrill Lynch On balance retail sales cut our 4Q GDP tracking by 0.2pp to 2.0% qoq saar . [Jan 17 estimate] emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.2% for 2019:Q4 and 1.7% for 2020:Q1. [Jan 17 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 1.8 percent on January 17, unchanged from January 16 after rounding. After this morning's housing starts report from the U.S. Census Bureau and industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 1.6 percent to 1.4 percent was partly offset by an increase in the nowcast of real residential investment growth from 4.3 percent to 5.5 percent. [Jan 17 estimate] CR Note: These estimates suggest real GDP growth will be between 1.2% and 2.0% annualized in Q4.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:12 PM » Trump's Fed pick Judy Shelton faces obstacles to confirmation
    Published Fri, Jan 17 2020 2:12 PM by CNBC
    The move comes with two pressing questions - whether she could be a future chair at the central bank, and if she even will be able to serve if confirmed
  • 12:49 PM » BLS: Job Openings "Fell" to 6.8 Million in November
    Published Fri, Jan 17 2020 12:49 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Notes: In November there were 6.800 million job openings, and, according to the November Employment report, there were 5.811 million unemployed. So, for the twenty-first consecutive month, there were more job openings than people unemployed. Also note that the number of job openings has exceeded the number of hires since January 2015 (almost 5 years). From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings fell to 6.8 million (-561,000) on the last business day of November , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.8 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.3 percent and the layoffs and discharges rate was little changed at 1.1 percent. ... The number of total nonfarm quits was little changed in November at 3.5 million and the rate was unchanged at 2.3 percent. Quits increased in retail trade (+118,000), wholesale trade (+26,000), and nondurable goods manufacturing (+19,000). Quits decreased in other services (-63,000). emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for November, the most recent employment report was for December. Click on graph for larger image. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Jobs openings decreased in November to 6.800 million from 7.361 million in October. The number of job openings (yellow) are down 11% year-over...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:49 AM » Fed's Bullard: "Material reassessment" is "big tent language"
    Published Fri, Jan 17 2020 11:49 AM by Reuters
    St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard expounded on what might comprise a "material reassessment" of the economic outlook, the Treasury yield curve, the central bank's framework review and more in a Reuters interview.
  • 11:25 AM » U.S. manufacturing output rises unexpectedly
    Published Fri, Jan 17 2020 11:25 AM by Reuters
    U.S. manufacturing output rose unexpectedly in December as a drop in motor vehicle output was outpaced by increases in production of other durable goods, food and beverages, and other products.
  • 9:45 AM » The yield curve's still weird. Fed's Bullard is okay with that
    Published Fri, Jan 17 2020 9:45 AM by Reuters
    It was more than a year ago when St. Louis Federal Reserve bank President James Bullard started raising the alarm about a U.S. bond market where interest rates seemed to show investors losing faith in the economy, a risky environment for the Fed to carry out planned rate increases.
  • 8:17 AM » US Home Prices Up 7% in December
    Published Fri, Jan 17 2020 8:17 AM by
    A record shortage of homes for sale drove prices up on a monthly and annual basis. U.S. home-sale prices increased 6.9% year over year in December to a median of $312,500 across the 217 metros Redfin tracks. Home prices were also up 1.1% month over month on a seasonally-adjusted basis, the largest increase since February … US Home Prices Up 7% in December Read More » The post US Home Prices Up 7% in December appeared first on Redfin Blog .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • Thu, Jan 16 2020
  • 3:59 PM » S&P 500 cracks 3,300 on strong bank earnings and retail data
    Published Thu, Jan 16 2020 3:59 PM by Reuters
    The S&P 500 hit the 3,300 mark for the first time on Thursday and the other main U.S. indexes also broke record highs, fueled by solid retail sales data and upbeat Morgan Stanley earnings.
  • 2:04 PM » Labor Department makes big change to the way jobs data is released, aimed at hedge funds, media
    Published Thu, Jan 16 2020 2:04 PM by CNBC
    The department said it no longer will allow computers in the lock-ups it hosts for credentialed press. The move appears to be targeted specifically at Bloomberg.
  • 2:00 PM » Student loan debt is over $1.6 trillion and hardly anyone is paying down their loans
    Published Thu, Jan 16 2020 2:00 PM by CNBC
    Since the explosion of student loan debt following the Great Recession, annual repayment rates, or the amount of existing balances lowered, have been just 3%
  • 2:00 PM » CFPB seeking applications for membership on advisory groups
    Published Thu, Jan 16 2020 2:00 PM by
    The CFPB has published a notice in the Federal Register announcing that it is seeking applications for membership on its Consumer Advisory Board, Community Bank Advisory Council, Credit Union Advisory Council, and Academic Research Council. For an applicant to be considered, the Bureau must receive his or her complete application packet by February 27, 2020.... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

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