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  • Mon, Aug 24 2020
  • 11:46 AM » Small landlords dip into savings as their tenants struggle to pay rent
    Published Mon, Aug 24 2020 11:46 AM by CNBC
    More renters are unable to make their monthly payments, and that is having an outsized impact on the nation's "mom and pop" landlords.
  • 10:30 AM » NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Shows Decline in Households Paying Rent
    Published Mon, Aug 24 2020 10:30 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the NMHC: NMHC Rent Payment Tracker Finds 90 Percent of Apartment Households Paid Rent as of August 20 The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC)'s Rent Payment Tracker found 90 percent of apartment households made a full or partial rent payment by August 20 in its survey of 11.4 million units of professionally managed apartment units across the country. This is a 2.1-percentage point, or 237,056 -household decrease from the share who paid rent through August 20, 2019 and compares to 91.3 percent that had paid by July 20, 2020 . These data encompass a wide variety of market-rate rental properties across the United States, which can vary by size, type and average rental price. "Lawmakers in Congress and the Administration need to come back to the table and work together on comprehensive legislation that protects and supports tens of millions of American renters by extending unemployment benefits and providing desperately needed rental assistance," said Doug Bibby, NMHC President. "The industry remains encouraged by the degree residents have prioritized their housing obligations so far, but each passing day means more distress for individuals and families, and greater risk for the nation's housing sector. If policymakers want to prevent a health and economic crisis from quickly evolving into a housing crisis, they should act quickly to extend financial assistance to renters." emphasis added CR Note: This is mostly for large, professionally managed properties.  It appears fewer people are paying their rent this year compared to last year - down 2.1 percentage points from a year ago - and also down 1.3 percentage points compared to last month (July 2020).   This hasn't fallen off a cliff - yet.  People were still receiving the extra unemployment benefits for most of July, and were able to make their August rent payment.  Without additional disaster relief, I expect more people will miss...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:06 AM » Chicago Fed National Activity "Index Suggests Slower, but Still Well-Above-Average Growth in July"
    Published Mon, Aug 24 2020 10:06 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: This is a composite index of other data. From the Chicago Fed: Index Suggests Slower, but Still Well-Above-Average Growth in July Led by some moderation in the growth of production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to +1.18 in July from +5.33 in June. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in July, but all four categories decreased from June. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, rose to +3.59 in July from -2.78 in June . emphasis added This graph from the Chicago Fed shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index by category. Click on graph for larger image. According to the Chicago Fed: The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. ... A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:23 AM » New York Led with Employment Gains in July
    Published Mon, Aug 24 2020 9:23 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 47 states and the District of Columbia, in July compared to the previous month. The largest increase came from New York, which added 176,600 jobs during this time. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nationwide total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 1.8 million over the month of July, following an increase of 4.8 million... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 8:29 AM » Eight High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
    Published Mon, Aug 24 2020 8:29 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment - some of the sectors that will recover very slowly. ----- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration ----- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers . Click on graph for larger image. This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Blue) and 2020 (Red). This data is as of August 23rd. The seven day average is down 70% from last year.  There had been a slow steady increase from the bottom, but air travel is just creeping up over the last several weeks. ----- Restaurants: OpenTable ----- The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. Thanks to OpenTable for providing this restaurant data: This data is updated through Aug 22, 2020. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year." Note that this data is for " only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown . The 7 day average for New York is still off 65% YoY, and down 44% in Texas. It appears dining is increasing again, probably mostly outdoor dining . ----- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo ----- This data shows domestic box office for each week (red) and the maximum and minimum for the previous four years.  Data is from BoxOfficeMojo through August 20th. Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released. Movie ticket sales have picked up over the last two weeks, and were over $2 million last week (compared to usually around $300 million per week). Most movie theaters are still closed, but a few seem to be reopening...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:05 AM » Economists see a chance of a double-dip recession, survey shows
    Published Mon, Aug 24 2020 8:05 AM by CNBC
    There's a one-in-four chance the economy could fall into a double-dip recession, according to economists surveyed by NABE.
  • 8:03 AM » Home Prices Are Still Shooting Up, but Is This a Bubble About To Burst?
    Published Mon, Aug 24 2020 8:03 AM by www.realtor.com
    Home prices have been defying logic, rising to record highs in the midst of the pandemic and a recession. Is the housing market overheating-and a correction looming? The post Home Prices Are Still Shooting Up, but Is This a Bubble About To Burst? appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • Fri, Aug 21 2020
  • 2:33 PM » BLS: July Unemployment rates down in 30 states; 3 States at New Series Highs
    Published Fri, Aug 21 2020 2:33 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Unemployment rates were lower in July in 30 states, higher in 9 states, and stable in 11 states and the District of Columbia , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. All 50 states and the District had jobless rate increases from a year earlier. The national unemployment rate fell by 0.9 percentage point over the month to 10.2 percent but was 6.5 points higher than in July 2019. ... Massachusetts had the highest unemployment rate in July, 16.1 percent, followed by New York, 15.9 percent. The rates in Connecticut (10.2 percent), New Mexico (12.7 percent), and New York (15.9 percent) set new series highs . (All state series begin in 1976.) Utah had the lowest unemployment rate, 4.5 percent, followed by Nebraska, 4.8 percent, and Idaho, 5.0 percent. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph compares the unemployment rate in two lockdown states (New York and New Jersey), and two early open states (Florida and Texas). This will be interesting to track.   New York and New Jersey locked down, and then waited to reopen. Florida and Texas reopened sooner. Currently New York and New Jersey are averaging about 900 new positive cases per day, combined. Florida and Texas are averaging about 11,500 cases per day.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:02 PM » Existing-Home Sales Soar at a Record Pace in July as Americans Make Up for Lost Time—but Two Big Caveats Remain
    Published Fri, Aug 21 2020 2:02 PM by www.realtor.com
    The national median home price surpassed $300,000 for the first time on record, according to the National Association of Realtors The post Existing-Home Sales Soar at a Record Pace in July as Americans Make Up for Lost Time-but Two Big Caveats Remain appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 12:48 PM » That extra $300 weekly unemployment benefits: Where states stand
    Published Fri, Aug 21 2020 12:48 PM by CNBC
    More states are starting to apply, and be approved, for federal unemployment assistance. Here's a map of where states stand.
  • 9:11 AM » Single-Family Built-for-Rent Construction Down in 2Q20
    Published Fri, Aug 21 2020 9:11 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    The number of single-family homes built-for-rent (SFBFR) posted a small year-over-year decline for the second quarter of 2020. The SFBFR market has received attention as a means to add single-family inventory amid concerns over housing affordability and downpayment requirements in the for-sale market, particularly during a period of double-digit unemployment and weak wage growth. Single-family built-for-rent construction does differ in... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 8:53 AM » Average New Home Price Now $14,000 Higher Due to Lumber
    Published Fri, Aug 21 2020 8:53 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    According to NAHB's standard estimates of lumber used to build the average home, the recent spike in softwood lumber prices has caused the price of an average new single-family home to increase by $14,116 since April 17. Similarly, the market value of the average new multifamily home has increased by $5,322 over the same period due to the surge in... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 8:14 AM » Struggling retailers rush to file for bankruptcy as fears of a second wave of coronavirus linger
    Published Fri, Aug 21 2020 8:14 AM by CNBC
    Another round of retail bankruptcies and liquidations could be coming if a second wave of infections run smack into the holiday shopping season.
  • 8:04 AM » U.S. Treasury yields move higher as investors look ahead to fresh economic data
    Published Fri, Aug 21 2020 8:04 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices were lower on Friday morning, as investors monitored flash readings of purchasing managers' index data.
  • Thu, Aug 20 2020
  • 4:53 PM » Evictions are expected to skyrocket as pandemic protections come to an end
    Published Thu, Aug 20 2020 4:53 PM by CNBC
    The federal ban on evictions expired last month. Many states that paused their own proceedings have now allowed them to resume. The result: A record number of people could find themselves without a home during the pandemic.
  • 4:52 PM » The rise in jobless claims may be a warning to Congress that the economy needs stimulus
    Published Thu, Aug 20 2020 4:52 PM by CNBC
    A jump in jobless claims back above 1 million could be a warning the labor market faces a setback with no new fiscal stimulus to boost it.
  • 4:50 PM » Here's what happened to the stock market on Thursday
    Published Thu, Aug 20 2020 4:50 PM by CNBC
    Solid gains in tech offset the release of disappointing unemployment data.
  • 1:02 PM » Wildfires rage across California threatening thousands of homes
    Published Thu, Aug 20 2020 1:02 PM by CNBC
    Wildfires continued to rage across California on Thursday fueled by dry heat and extreme temperatures, threatening thousands of homes and forcing evacuations.
  • 1:02 PM » Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 30% Year-over-year
    Published Thu, Aug 20 2020 1:02 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 15 August U.S. weekly hotel occupancy hit 50.0% for the first time since mid-March, according to the latest data from STR. 9-15 August 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019): • Occupancy: 50.2% (-30.0%) • Average daily rate (ADR): US$101.41 (-23.0%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$50.87 (-46.1%) U.S. occupancy has risen week over week for 17 of the last 18 weeks, although growth in demand (room nights sold) has slowed. The week ending 14 March was the last with occupancy of at least 50.0%. emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average . As STR noted, the occupancy rate has increased week-to-week in "17 of the last 18 weeks". The increases in occupancy have slowed and are well below the level for this week last year of 72%. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year probably since the Great Depression for hotels). The leisure travel season usually peaks at the beginning of August (right now), and the occupancy rate typically declines sharply in the Fall. With so many schools closed, the leisure travel season might be lasting longer this year than usual. Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:29 AM » Multifamily Production Index Inches Up, But Still Remains in Negative Territory
    Published Thu, Aug 20 2020 10:29 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    Confidence in the market for new multifamily housing increased in the second quarter but still remains in negative territory, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). The Multifamily Production Index (MPI) rose 10 points to 37, but is still below its break even point of 50, which indicates that more builders and developers view conditions as weaker than... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 9:35 AM » Philly Fed Manufacturing "continued to expand" in August
    Published Thu, Aug 20 2020 9:35 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: Be careful with diffusion indexes. This shows a rebound off the bottom - some improvement from May to August - but doesn't show the level of activity. From the Philly Fed: August 2020 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Manufacturing activity in the region continued to expand this month , according to firms responding to the August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's current indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments remained positive for the third consecutive month but fell from their readings in July. The employment index also fell from its reading in July but remained in positive territory for the second consecutive month. Most of the future indicators remained elevated, suggesting that the firms expect growth over the next six months. The diffusion index for current activity fell 7 points to 17.2 in August , its third consecutive positive reading after reaching long-term lows in April and May On balance, the firms reported increases in manufacturing employment for the second consecutive month, but the current employment index fell 11 points to 9.0 this month. emphasis added This was below the consensus forecast. Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index: Click on graph for larger image. The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (blue, through August), and five Fed surveys are averaged (yellow, through July) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through July (right axis). These early reports suggest the ISM manufacturing index will stay positive in August, but will likely not change much from the July level.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:35 AM » U.S. weekly jobless claims total 1.106 million, vs 923,000 expected
    Published Thu, Aug 20 2020 8:35 AM by CNBC
    Economists polled by Dow Jones expected initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug. 15 to fall to 923,000 from the previous week's total of 963,000.
  • 8:06 AM » Stock market live updates: Futures lower, jobless claims on deck, Dow losing streak
    Published Thu, Aug 20 2020 8:06 AM by CNBC
    Stock futures were modestly lower during premarket trading as investors awaited jobless claims data.
  • Wed, Aug 19 2020
  • 2:09 PM » AIA: "July architectural billings remained stalled"
    Published Wed, Aug 19 2020 2:09 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: July architectural billings remained stalled Architectural billings failed to show any progress during July, and business conditions continued to be soft at firms, according to a new report from the American Institute of Architects (AIA). The pace of decline during July remained at about the same level as in June with both months posting an ABI score of 40.0 (any score below 50 indicates a decline in firm billings) . While firms reported a modest decline for inquiries into new projects-slipping from 49.3 in June to 49.1 in July- newly signed design contracts declined more critically, falling from a June level of 44.0 to 41.7 in July. "It's clear the pandemic continued to contribute to uncertainty in business conditions, especially as cases spiked in states across the country," said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. "While clients expressed interest in exploring new projects, many are hesitant to sign onto new contracts with the exception of the multifamily residential sector, which came close to seeing billings growth in July ." ... • Regional averages: West (40.9); South (40.7); Midwest (40.1); Northeast (36.8) • Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (47.5); mixed practice (44.0); institutional (39.5); commercial/industrial (35.4) emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 40.0 in July, unchanged from 40.0 in June.. Anything below 50 indicates contraction in demand for architects' services. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. This index has been below 50 for five consecutive months.  This represents a significant decrease in design services, and suggests a decline in CRE investment...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:02 PM » Federal Reserve releases minutes from its July meeting
    Published Wed, Aug 19 2020 2:02 PM by CNBC
    The Federal Reserve's policymaking body released minutes Wednesday of its July 28-29 meeting.
  • 11:09 AM » Employment: Preliminary annual benchmark revision shows downward adjustment of 173,000 jobs
    Published Wed, Aug 19 2020 11:09 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: This is mostly before the sharp decline in employment due to COVID. The BLS released the preliminary annual benchmark revision showing 173,000 fewer payroll jobs as of March 2020. The final revision will be published when the January 2021 employment report is released in February 2021. Usually the preliminary estimate is pretty close to the final benchmark estimate. The annual revision is benchmarked to state tax records. From the BLS: In accordance with usual practice, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is announcing the preliminary estimate of the upcoming annual benchmark revision to the establishment survey employment series. The final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2021 with the publication of the January 2021 Employment Situation news release. Each year, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey employment estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment for the month of March. These counts are derived from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. For National CES employment series, the annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have averaged plus or minus two-tenths of one percent of total nonfarm employment. The preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision indicates a downward adjustment to March 2020 total nonfarm employment of -173,000 (-0.1 percent). emphasis added Using the preliminary benchmark estimate, this means that payroll employment in March 2020 was 173,000 lower than originally estimated. In February 2021, the payroll numbers will be revised down to reflect the final estimate. The number is then "wedged back" to the previous revision (March 2019). Construction was revised up by 6,000 jobs, and manufacturing revised down by 70,000 jobs. This preliminary estimate showed 229,000 fewer private sector jobs, and 56,000 more government jobs (as of March 2020).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:19 AM » Phoenix Real Estate in July: Sales up 12% YoY, Active Inventory Down 42% YoY
    Published Wed, Aug 19 2020 10:19 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports ("Stats Report"): 1) Overall sales were at 10,303 in July, up from 9,508 in June, and up from 9,192 in July 2019. Sales were up 8.4% from June 2020 (last month), and up 12.1% from July 2019 . 2) Active inventory was at 8,010, down from 13,737 in July 2019. That is down 42% year-over-year . 3) Months of supply decreased to 1.26 in July, down from 1.51 in June. This is very low. Sales are reported at the close of escrow, so these sales were mostly signed in May and June. As expected, sales rebounded further in July.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:23 AM » New Single-Family Home Size Leveling Off?
    Published Wed, Aug 19 2020 9:23 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    New single-family home size trended lower during the second quarter 2020 at the beginning of what we are forecasting will be a pivot to larger home size over the next two years. According to second quarter 2020 data from the Census Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design and NAHB analysis, median single-family square floor area ticked down to... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 8:51 AM » Luxury Home Prices Bounce Back, Rising 1.2% in Early Summer
    Published Wed, Aug 19 2020 8:51 AM by www.redfin.com
    Luxury real estate prices are rising as the coronavirus pandemic drives demand for extra bedrooms, home offices, big backyards and pools The post Luxury Home Prices Bounce Back, Rising 1.2% in Early Summer appeared first on Redfin | Real Estate Tips for Home Buying, Selling & More .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 8:05 AM » Fed faces a 'major challenge' in making its new inflation strategy official, former governor says
    Published Wed, Aug 19 2020 8:05 AM by CNBC
    The Federal Open Market Committee's meeting minutes for July will be released at 2 p.m. ET.
  • 8:05 AM » Treasury yields edge lower ahead of Fed minutes; U.S.-China tensions persist
    Published Wed, Aug 19 2020 8:05 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices were higher Wednesday morning as investors awaited the release of the latest Federal Reserve minutes, while monitoring developments on a new coronavirus relief bill in Washington.
  • Tue, Aug 18 2020
  • 4:53 PM » Here's what happened to the stock market on Tuesday
    Published Tue, Aug 18 2020 4:53 PM by CNBC
    The S&P 500 broke out to an all-time high, completing its recovery from the coronavirus sell-off.
  • 4:53 PM » Custom Home Building Outperformed the Market During 2Q20
    Published Tue, Aug 18 2020 4:53 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    NAHB's analysis of Census Data from the Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design survey indicates custom home building performed better than the overall building market during the challenging second quarter of 2020. This relative outperformance is at odds with the conventional narrative that spec home building saw outsized gains during the April to June time period. There were 45,000... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 2:40 PM » Kelly Evans: A housing-led recovery
    Published Tue, Aug 18 2020 2:40 PM by CNBC
    Kelly Evans: A housing-led recovery<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/18/kelly-evans-a-housing-led-recovery.html
  • 2:40 PM » August Employment Report Will Show an Increase of Several Hundred Thousand Temporary Census Workers
    Published Tue, Aug 18 2020 2:40 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Census Bureau released an update today on 2020 Census Paid Temporary Workers As of the July reference week, there were 50,404 decennial Census temporary workers. As of week of August 2nd through August 8th, there were 270,468 temp workers. That was an increase of around 220,000 . Last week was the BLS reference week , and it seems likely another 100,000 or more temporary workers were on the payroll last week (to be released next week). This means the August employment report will show a sharp increase in Federal employment. Since these are temporary, and only happen every ten years with the decennial Census, it makes sense to adjust the headline monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) by Census hiring to determine the underlying employment trend. The correct adjustment method is to take the headline number and subtract the change in the number of Census 2020 temporary and intermittent workers. For more, see: How to Report the Monthly Employment Number excluding Temporary Census Hiring
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:40 PM » The S&P 500 finally hit a new record after multiple tries this month. Here's what could happen next
    Published Tue, Aug 18 2020 2:40 PM by CNBC
    The S&P 500 pushed through to an historic intraday high shortly after the open, passing the old February 19th high of 3393.52.
  • 11:56 AM » Millions of Americans are facing longer periods of unemployment, posing greater financial risks
    Published Tue, Aug 18 2020 11:56 AM by CNBC
    A large number of Americans are facing longer periods of unemployment, which poses greater financial risks, according to economists.
  • 8:47 AM » Housing Starts increased to 1.496 Million Annual Rate in July
    Published Tue, Aug 18 2020 8:47 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,496,000 . This is 22.6 percent above the revised June estimate of 1,220,000 and is 23.4 percent above the July 2019 rate of 1,212,000. Single-family housing starts in July were at a rate of 940,000; this is 8.2 percent above the revised June figure of 869,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 547,000. Building Permits: Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,495,000. This is 18.8 percent above the revised June rate of 1,258,000 and is 9.4 percent (±1.5 percent) above the July 2019 rate of 1,366,000. Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of 983,000; this is 17.0 percent above the revised June figure of 840,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 467,000 in July. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years. Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) were up in July compared to June.   Multi-family starts were up solidly year-over-year in July. Single-family starts (blue) increased in July, and were up 7.4% year-over-year. The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968. The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then eventual recovery (but still historically low). Total housing starts in July were above expectations, and starts in May and June were revised up. I'll have more later
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:25 AM » U.S. and European firms face $1 trillion in costs to relocate their Chinese supply chains, BofA says
    Published Tue, Aug 18 2020 8:25 AM by CNBC
    Foreign firms looking to move their manufacturing processes outside of China in the wake of coronavirus could face $1 trillion in costs over five years, according to new Bank of America research.
  • 8:05 AM » MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases for the Ninth Straight Week to 7.21%"
    Published Tue, Aug 18 2020 8:05 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: This is as of August 9th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases for the Ninth Straight Week to 7.21% he Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 23 basis points from 7.44% of servicers' portfolio volume in the prior week to 7.21% as of August 9, 2020. According to MBA's estimate, 3.6 million homeowners are in forbearance plans . ... "More homeowners exited forbearance last week, leading to the ninth straight drop in the share of loans in forbearance. However, the decline in Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance was again because of buyouts of delinquent loans from Ginnie Mae pools, which result in these FHA and VA loans being reported in the portfolio category," said Mike Fratantoni, MBA's Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. "In a sign that more FHA and VA borrowers are struggling with a very tough job market, more Ginnie Mae borrowers requested than exited forbearance." By stage, 38.80% of total loans in forbearance are in the initial forbearance plan stage, while 60.49% are in a forbearance extension. The remaining 0.70% are forbearance re-entries. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time.  Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has been trending down for the last nine weeks. The MBA notes: "Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) decreased relative to the prior week from 0.12% to 0.11%." There hasn't been a pickup in forbearance activity related to the end of the extra unemployment benefits.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
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