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  • Tue, Nov 10 2015
  • 3:40 PM » Periscope: Seeing an 'open house' from your house
    Published Tue, Nov 10 2015 3:40 PM by CNBC
    The Twitter-owned video streaming app is being used by real estate brokers to drive sales in New York and elsewhere.
  • 3:40 PM » The Fed: Kaskhari's appointment could give banks someone in their corner at Fed
    Published Tue, Nov 10 2015 3:40 PM by Market Watch
    Former TARP chief Neel Kashkari's appointment to head the Minneapolis Fed may be a godsend to banks upset about tough regulations coming from the U.S. central banks.
  • 1:21 PM » Make Fed less political: Kashkari
    Published Tue, Nov 10 2015 1:21 PM by CNBC
    In tweets posted in the past two years, Neel Kashkari made statements critical of the Fed. He will start leading the Minneapolis branch in 2016.
  • 12:09 PM » Fed Watch: "Onto The Next Question"
    Published Tue, Nov 10 2015 12:09 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Some excerpts from a piece by Tim Duy: Onto The Next Question It would seem that a December rate hike is all but certain barring some dramatic deterioration in financial conditions. The October employment report should remove any residual concerns among FOMC members over the underlaying pace of activity, clearing the way for the Fed to make good on the strongly worded October FOMC statement. Given the resilience of recent trends, it is tough to see that even a weak-ish November employment report would dissuade the Fed from hiking rates. Quite frankly, regardless of whether you think they should hike rates, if they don't hike rates, the divergence between what they say and what they do would become truly untenable from a communications perspective. ... The question now arises, however, of what is "gradual"? The general consensus is the "gradual" means 25bp every other meeting. ... ... Has the Fed already waited too long to sustain a path of 25bp every other meeting? That is what we should be asking. Indeed, I believe the next labor report will have more implications for the January meeting than the December meeting. ... Bottom Line: The debate is shifting. It is soon to be no longer about the first rate hike. Fed officials, the question is shifting from whether they should go at all to whether they waited too long.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:06 PM » Minneapolis Fed names ex-TARP chief Kashkari as new president
    Published Tue, Nov 10 2015 12:06 PM by Market Watch
    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The board of directors of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve has chosen Neel Kashkari to be its next president effective on Jan. 1. Kashkari, 42, worked for Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson in the run-up and aftermath of the financial crisis and later ran for governor of California as a Republican. Before joining the government, he worked at Goldman Sachs. He worked for Pimco after leaving Treasury. Kashkari will replace Narayana Kocherlakota, a leading dove on the U.S. central bank, who announced last year that he would leave the Minneapolis Fed when his term ended in early 2016. Kashkari will not be a voting member of the Fed policy committee until 2017.
  • 12:06 PM » Which city has the best housing deals?
    Published Tue, Nov 10 2015 12:06 PM by CNBC
    Coldwell Banker Real Estate has a new report out on the most and least expensive housing markets in the U.S. Check out the price divide.
  • 10:29 AM » NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index unchanged in October
    Published Tue, Nov 10 2015 10:29 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): Small Business Optimism Flat Lined in October The Index of Small Business Optimism was unchanged in October , posting no change after a rise of only 0.2 points in September and a gain of only 0.5 points in August. ... Although the labor market components posted minor declines, they held at historically strong levels ... emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index was unchanged at 96.1 in October.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:28 AM » D.C. area home sales were strong in October
    Published Tue, Nov 10 2015 10:28 AM by Washington Post
    Low mortgage rates and confidence in the economy have given a boost to the D.C. region's housing market.Even as the market heads into its typical year-end slowdown, home buyers have been snapping up properties at a brisk pace. Sales, which have been robust through the first 10 months of the year, were strong again in October, according to data released Tuesday morning by RealEstate Business Intelligence, a subsidiary of MRIS.Read full article >>
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Washington Post
  • 10:28 AM » Wholesale inventories post large gain
    Published Tue, Nov 10 2015 10:28 AM by CNBC
    U.S. wholesale inventories rose more than expected in September, suggesting the third-quarter economic growth estimate could be revised higher.
  • 8:40 AM » US import prices fall on petroleum, range of goods
    Published Tue, Nov 10 2015 8:40 AM by CNBC
    Prices fell more than expected in October, a sign that a strong dollar and soft demand continued to exert downward pressure on imported inflation.
  • 8:37 AM » Homebuilder D.R. Horton's profit jumps nearly 44 percent
    Published Tue, Nov 10 2015 8:37 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - U.S. homebuilder D.R. Horton Inc's quarterly profit rose 43.7 percent as the company sold more homes.
  • 1:03 AM » Business Briefing: World Economies Could Face Recession, O.E.C.D. Says
    Published Tue, Nov 10 2015 1:03 AM by
    A slowdown in international trade could be a harbinger of a new recession for the world's leading economies, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 12:53 AM » Freddie Mac Announces Eighth NPL Transaction of 2015
    Published Tue, Nov 10 2015 12:53 AM by
    Freddie Mac Announces Eighth NPL Transaction of 2015
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 12:52 AM » Stocks could learn how to trade from bond market
    Published Tue, Nov 10 2015 12:52 AM by CNBC
    Stock traders have been keeping an eye on the bond market for clues on the Fed's first rate hike.
  • 12:52 AM » Gundlach Says December Rate Increase a Threat to Stocks, Bonds
    Published Tue, Nov 10 2015 12:52 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Gundlach Says December Rate Increase a Threat to Stocks, Bonds Bloomberg A December interest rate increase would threaten U.S. stock and bond markets while potentially driving up the value of the dollar to the point where it weakens the economy, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive officer of DoubleLine Capital ... and more »
  • 12:52 AM » Why 'trickle-down' is bad news for renters
    Published Tue, Nov 10 2015 12:52 AM by CNBC
    Renters in all price brackets are being handed rent increases, but those at the bottom-end of the housing market are getting hit hardest.
  • Mon, Nov 9 2015
  • 4:04 PM » Update: Framing Lumber Prices down Sharply Year-over-year
    Published Mon, Nov 09 2015 4:04 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Here is another graph on framing lumber prices. Early in 2013 lumber prices came close to the housing bubble highs. The price increases in early 2013 were due to a surge in demand (more housing starts) and supply constraints (framing lumber suppliers were working to bring more capacity online). Prices didn't increase as much early in 2014 (more supply, smaller "surge" in demand). In 2015, even with the pickup in U.S. housing starts, prices are down year-over-year.  Note: Multifamily starts do not use as much lumber as single family starts, and there was a surge in multi-family starts. Overall the decline in prices is probably due to more supply, and less demand from China. Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery. This graph shows two measures of lumber prices: 1) Framing Lumber from Random Lengths through October 2015 ( via NAHB ), and 2) CME framing futures. Right now Random Lengths prices are down about 12% from a year ago, and CME futures are down around 21% year-over-year.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 4:03 PM » Corporate bonds draw bids amid rate-hike inspired Treasury selloff
    Published Mon, Nov 09 2015 4:03 PM by Market Watch
    Amid a rate-hike inspired Treasury bloodbath, portfolio managers are now turning to corporate bonds to rebalance their fixed-income portfolios to hedge against the Treasury selloff.
  • 4:02 PM » News Release - HPSI Decreases Slightly to 83.2 from 83.8 ...
    Published Mon, Nov 09 2015 4:02 PM by Fannie Mae
    Consumers' volatile outlook on both household income improvement and mortgage interest rates kept housing sentiment relatively flat.
  • 2:41 PM » Pimco seeks dismissal of Bill Gross' lawsuit over ouster
    Published Mon, Nov 09 2015 2:41 PM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - Pacific Investment Management Co on Monday said co-founder Bill Gross' lawsuit accusing it of driving him out last year so its remaining executives could divide his bonus among themselves should be thrown out.
  • 2:40 PM » US headwinds remain after bullish Oct jobs report
    Published Mon, Nov 09 2015 2:40 PM by CNBC
    Though October's nonfarm payrolls report surpassed expectations, central bankers face pitfalls, market watchers told CNBC.
  • 1:43 PM » Fed's Rosengren sounds open to December hike
    Published Mon, Nov 09 2015 1:43 PM by Market Watch
    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Eric Rosengren, the president of the Boston Fed, who has been dovish over the years, is sounding open to a December rate hike. In a speech in Rhode Island, Rosengren, a voter in 2016, said a December rate hike could be appropriate as long as the economy continues to improve, as he expects. Rosengren said waiting longer to begin rate hikes potentially risks having to move rates more rapidly. "I prefer a path that involves only gradual increases in interest rates and that essentially probes how tight labor markets can be, consistent with our 2% inflation target," he said
  • 1:40 PM » The Fed's muddy monetary road
    Published Mon, Nov 09 2015 1:40 PM by
    Monetary policy is always explained in metaphors. Some involve plumbing (“tightening the credit spigot”); some, sailing (“headwinds”); some, cars (“tapping the brakes”). And sometimes old metaphors don’t fit new circumstances. Enter Andy Levin, a Dartmouth College economics professor and former adviser to Janet Yellen at the Federal Reserve. He offered a new and (as far as I can tell) original elaboration on the old automotive metaphor at an International Monetary Fund conference last week to explain why the Fed should move very cautiously now to raise interest rates. If the Fed had “perfect foresight,” he said, then setting interest rates is like “driving a familiar car on a flat rural highway with well-maintained pavement, approaching a stop sign that is clearly visible at a considerable distance.” The car in this story is the economy. The driver is the Fed, and the Fed knows exactly how the car will react when the brakes are tapped. The stop sign is the moment at which unemployment has fallen to the point where wages start to rise, and the Fed should have raised rates so that the economy (to invoke another metaphor) doesn’t overheat and produce unwelcome inflation. The smart strategy in this case, then, is to “start applying the brakes well in advance and slow down gradually so that the car comes to a smooth stop.” But those aren’t the circumstances the Fed finds itself in today, Mr. Levin said. Rather, the Fed is “driving an unfamiliar vehicle up a steep country road that has lots of curves and some muddy conditions, with a stop sign located at the top of the hill that is not yet visible.” What, then, should the driver do? Don’t drive too fast, of course, but don’t drive too slowly either. “Be careful to preserve momentum and be mindful that the accelerator will be useless...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 11:52 AM » St. Louis Fed: There Is No Chance Inflation Will Be Out Of Control
    Published Mon, Nov 09 2015 11:52 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg St. Louis Fed: There Is No Chance Inflation Will Be Out Of Control Over The ... Bloomberg Continued improvements in the labor market and robust wage gains in October have bolstered monetary policy makers' confidence that inflation will trend back towards its 2-percent target in the medium term. But according to a new model published by the St.
  • 11:47 AM » Market Extra: Which markets are closed on Veterans Day?
    Published Mon, Nov 09 2015 11:47 AM by Market Watch
    Bond pros are off on Veterans Day on Tuesday. U.S. stock markets, not so much. Why?
  • 11:47 AM » Housing: Inventory Build is Over in some Former Distressed Markets
    Published Mon, Nov 09 2015 11:47 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Watching existing home "for sale" inventory is very helpful. As an example, the increase in inventory in late 2005 helped me call the top for housing. And the decrease in inventory eventually helped me correctly call the bottom for house prices in early 2012, see: The Housing Bottom is Here . I don't have a crystal ball, but watching inventory helps understand the housing market.   If inventory kept increasing rapidly in certain markets, then we would eventually see price declines.  However it now appears the inventory build is over in some former distressed markets. The table below shows the year-over-year change for non-contingent inventory in Las Vegas, Phoenix and Sacramento (October 2015 not available yet for Phoenix and Sacramento).  Inventory declined sharply through early 2013, and then inventory started increasing sharply year-over-year. This makes sense.  Prices increased rapidly in these markets in 2012 and 2013 (bouncing off the bottom with low inventory).  Higher prices attracted more people to list their homes.  Once prices flattened out, potential sellers weren't as motivated to list their homes.  Unlike following the housing bubble, most of these potential sellers probably don't need to sell, so listings didn't grow to the moon! Now listing are starting to decline, so prices might increase a little quicker.  As an example, according to Case-Shiller, prices in Phoenix only increased 2.4% in 2014, but have increased 3.5% already this year through August.  For Phoenix, the inventory build ended near the end of 2014. For Las Vegas, the inventory might have just ended a couple of months ago.  If inventory continues to decline, it seems likely price increases will pick up in Las Vegas. I still expect overall inventory to continue to increase nationally, but this is something to watch. Year-over-year Change in Active Inventory Month Las Vegas Phoenix...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:20 AM » Time to go to cash: Advisor
    Published Mon, Nov 09 2015 10:20 AM by CNBC
    If you didn't go to cash in August, good for you, but now it's harder to argue against selling stocks, says an advisor.
  • 10:18 AM » Treasury yields rise for sixth straight session as investors brace for rate hike
    Published Mon, Nov 09 2015 10:18 AM by Market Watch
    Treasury yields rise Monday for the sixth straight session, reaching their highest level in nearly four months, as investors' expectations that the Federal Reserve will boost interest rates in December continue to increase.
  • 8:34 AM » U.S. Probes Treasuries Niche That Some Investors Claim Is Rigged
    Published Mon, Nov 09 2015 8:34 AM by Bloomberg
    U.S. Probes Treasuries Niche That Some Investors Claim Is Rigged Bloomberg U.S. officials investigating the $12.8 trillion market for U.S. Treasuries are zeroing in on a practice of trading the debt before it's issued, said a person familiar with the matter -- spotlighting trades that several recent lawsuits allege are part ... and more »
  • 8:31 AM » A Better Way to Reach Homeowners
    Published Mon, Nov 09 2015 8:31 AM by Freddie Mac
    By VP, Single-Family Customer and Operational Services Lisa Cookson Ten years ago, Freddie Mac began an aggressive experiment to reach delinquent homeowners who were not responding to loan servicer efforts to work with them. The results exceeded our expectations and prevented 350,000 additional foreclosures from happening. Read More
  • 8:31 AM » Las Vegas Real Estate in October: Sales Increased 6% YoY, Inventory Down YoY
    Published Mon, Nov 09 2015 8:31 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas has seen the largest price decline of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities. The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported GLVAR Report on Local Housing Market Shows Stable is the New Normal According to GLVAR, the total number of existing local homes, condominiums and townhomes sold in October was 3,020, up from 2,861 one year ago . Compared to October 2014, 4.7 percent more homes and 9.2 percent more condos and townhomes sold this October. Lynam said local home sales in 2015 remain ahead of last year's sales pace. For more than two years, GLVAR has been reporting fewer distressed sales and more traditional home sales, where lenders are not controlling the transaction. In October, 6.7 percent of all local sales were short sales - which occur when lenders allow borrowers to sell a home for less than what they owe on the mortgage. That's down from 10.6 percent one year ago. Another 7.5 percent of October sales were bank-owned , down from 8.9 percent one year ago. ... By the end of October, GLVAR reported 8,252 single-family homes listed without any sort of offer. That's down 7.1 percent from one year ago . For condos and townhomes, the 2,314 properties listed without offers in October represented a 9.2 percent decrease from one year ago. emphasis added There are several key trends that we've been following: 1) Overall sales were up 5.6% year-over-year. 2) Conventional (equity, not distressed) sales were up 13% year-over-year.  In Oct 2014, 80.5% of all sales were conventional equity.  In Oct 2015, 85.8% were standard equity sales. 3) The percent of cash sales has declined year-over-year from 35.1% in Oct 2014 to 30.9% in Oct 2015. (investor buying appears to be declining). 4) Non-contingent inventory is down 7.1% year-over-year. This was the second YoY decline in inventory since 2013.  The table below shows the year-over-year change...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • Sun, Nov 8 2015
  • 11:38 PM » Is the Housing Market Recovery Uneven?
    Published Sun, Nov 08 2015 11:38 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Is the Housing Market Recovery Uneven? Bloomberg Housing Finance Policy Center director Laurie Goodman discusses the United States housing recovery with Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal on "What'd You Miss?" (Source: Bloomberg). Related. Why the Jobs Report Should Be Taken With a Grain of Salt ...
  • 11:36 PM » 2016: Preliminary Housing Forecasts
    Published Sun, Nov 08 2015 11:36 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year, and it looks like analysts are optimistic for 2016 ( many more forecasts will be added ). First a review of the previous three years ... Here is a summary of forecasts for 2015 . In 2015, new home sales will probably be just over 500 thousand, and total housing starts will be something over 1.1 million.  It is early, but CoreLogic, Zillow and the MBA were very close on New Home sales, and CoreLogic, MetroStudy, MBA and Zillow were all close on starts. Here is a summary of forecasts for 2014 . In 2014, new home sales were 437 thousand, and total housing starts were 1.003 million. No one was close on New Home sales (all way too optimistic), and Michelle Meyer (Merrill Lynch) and Fannie Mae were the closest on housing starts (about 10% too high). In 2014, many analysts underestimated the impact of higher mortgage rates and higher new home prices on new home sales and starts. Here is a summary of forecasts for 2013 . In 2013, new home sales were 429 thousand, and total housing starts were 925 thousand.  Barclays were the closest on New Home sales followed by David Crowe (NAHB).  Fannie Mae and the NAHB were the closest on housing starts. The table below shows a few forecasts for 2016 (I'll add many more of the next several weeks). From Fannie Mae: Housing Forecast: October 2015 From NAHB: housing and economic forecast. UCLA Ziman Center. Note: For comparison, new home sales in 2015 will probably be just over 500 thousand, and total housing starts over 1.1 million. I haven't worked up a forecast yet for 2016, however I think the NAHB forecast for new home sales is too high - as is the UCLA forecast for housing starts. Housing Forecasts for 2016 New Home Sales (000s) Single Family Starts (000s) Total Starts (000s) House Prices 1 Fannie Mae 562 827 1,224 4.9% 2 NAHB 642 877 1,255 UCLA Ziman Center 1,420 1 Case-Shiller unless...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:36 PM » Bond Traders Start to Buy Into Yellen's Path on Interest Rates
    Published Sun, Nov 08 2015 11:36 PM by Bloomberg
    Bond Traders Start to Buy Into Yellen's Path on Interest Rates Bloomberg The bond market is beginning to warm up to Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's message on interest rates. Friday's better-than-forecast jobs report sent Treasury yields soaring and prompted futures traders to increase bets that the Fed will raise its ... and more »
  • Fri, Nov 6 2015
  • 4:40 PM » How Poor Renters Pay for the Rich Apartments
    Published Fri, Nov 06 2015 4:40 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg How Poor Renters Pay for the Rich Apartments Bloomberg The cheapest rents have surged over time while the priciest are flat, a study shows. Is it all that high-end construction? Patrick Clark pat_clark. November 6, 2015 - 9:50 AM PST. Share on FacebookShare on TwitterShare on WhatsApp · Share on ...
  • 4:40 PM » Fed's Brainard: Caution required
    Published Fri, Nov 06 2015 4:40 PM by CNBC
    The speech marked the latest time Brainard has urged colleagues to be careful about raising interest rates given global risks.
  • 2:26 PM » 7 charts show how Friday's jobs rocked the market
    Published Fri, Nov 06 2015 2:26 PM by Market Watch
    A blockbuster October jobs report has made the prospects for a rate increase at the Federal Reserve's next meeting in December a near certainty.
  • 12:33 PM » Why Smart Homes—and Their Potential Owners—Need to Wise Up
    Published Fri, Nov 06 2015 12:33 PM by
    Smart homes sure sound cool. But what happens when your safe space gets hacked? How cool are they then? The post Why Smart Homes-and Their Potential Owners-Need to Wise Up appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 10:12 AM » Fed's Evans: Jobs data 'very good news'
    Published Fri, Nov 06 2015 10:12 AM by CNBC
    Chicago's dovish Fed president says the much stronger-than-expected October jobs report shows economic growth.
  • 10:11 AM » Issues that deterred Fed from September rate hike largely disappeared: Bullard
    Published Fri, Nov 06 2015 10:11 AM by Reuters
    ST. LOUIS (Reuters) - The worries about China and other global problems that caused the Fed to delay an interest rate hike in September have largely passed, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Friday, spelling out the arguments for a rate hike when the Fed meets next month.
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