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  • Mon, Nov 16 2015
  • 12:38 PM » How Paris attacks will play out in the market
    Published Mon, Nov 16 2015 12:38 PM by CNBC
    Terror and the fears of rising rates and recession have turned October's surge into November's purge. Here's what investors can do, says Sam Stovall.
  • 12:36 PM » Japan's economy shrinks back into recession
    Published Mon, Nov 16 2015 12:36 PM by CNBC
    Japanese policymakers and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe may deploy new stimulus measures as the country falls back into a recession.
  • 11:01 AM » HUD: FHA'S 2015 Annual Report Shows Capital Reserves Now Exceed 2%, First Time Since 2008
    Published Mon, Nov 16 2015 11:01 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From HUD: FHA'S 2015 ANNUAL REPORT SHOWS CAPITAL RESERVES NOW EXCEED 2% The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) today released its annual report to Congress on the financial condition of the Federal Housing Administration's Mutual Mortgage Insurance (MMI) Fund. The independent actuarial analysis shows the MMI Fund's capital ratio stands at 2.07 percent-the first time since 2008 that FHA's reserve ratio exceeded the congressionally required 2 percent threshold. The economic value of the MMI Fund gained $19 billion in Fiscal Year 2015, driven by strong actions to reduce risk, cut losses and improve recoveries. This is the third consecutive year of economic growth for the MMI Fund, allowing FHA to expand credit access to qualified borrowers even as the broader housing market continues to recover. FHA's annual report also notes a significant increase in loan volume during FY 2015, due largely to a reduction in annual mortgage insurance premium prices announced in January. Read a comprehensive summary of the report released today . "FHA is on solid financial footing and positioned to continue playing its vital role in assisting future generations of homeowners," said HUD Secretary Julián Castro. "We've taken a number of steps to strengthen the Fund and increase credit access to responsible borrowers. Today's report demonstrates that we struck the right balance in responsibly growing the Fund, reducing premiums, and doing what FHA was born to do - allowing hardworking Americans to become homeowners and spurring growth in the housing market as well as the broader economy." From the report: Click on graph for larger image. The quality of new business is reflected by early payment delinquencies (EPD) rates. The EPD rate is the rate at which loans experience 90-day delinquencies within the first six months of origination, another metric that suggests the sustainability of the recovery in the Forward portfolio....
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:14 AM » NY manufacturing shrinks
    Published Mon, Nov 16 2015 9:14 AM by CNBC
    Factory activity in New York state contracted in November, as a strong dollar and slow overseas growth continued to drag down manufacturers.
  • 2:49 AM » Real Estate to Benefit as Crowdfunding Gets Boost
    Published Mon, Nov 16 2015 2:49 AM by Realtor.Org
    When businesses expand, real estate benefits. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is publishing a final rule in January that will take a big step in making so-called crowdfunding a mainstream way for small businesses to raise money. That's important for real estate, because one of the first things small businesses look at when they […]
  • 2:46 AM » Millennial Surge, Boomer Bulge Set to Give Market a Boost
    Published Mon, Nov 16 2015 2:46 AM by
    Millennials and baby boomers, the "barbells" of the U.S. population, will muscle up housing demand in the period to come. That's what CoreLogic economist Frank Nothaft asserts.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 2:41 AM » As Terror Episodes Increase, So Has Resilience in World Markets
    Published Mon, Nov 16 2015 2:41 AM by Bloomberg
    As Terror Episodes Increase, So Has Resilience in World Markets Bloomberg While nobody can predict how deeply investors will react to attacks that killed scores of people in Paris Friday, the history of terror incidents around the world over the last 15 years shows market reactions are often sharp and, increasingly, short-lived.
  • 2:41 AM » Bond Bulls Cheer as Dimmed Inflation Outlook Backs Gradual Fed
    Published Mon, Nov 16 2015 2:41 AM by Bloomberg
    Bond Bulls Cheer as Dimmed Inflation Outlook Backs Gradual Fed Bloomberg Americans' long-term inflation expectations are the lowest in decades, giving bond traders reason to buy into the gradual path of interest-rate increases signaled by Federal Reserve officials. Treasuries posted their first weekly gain in a month as ...
  • Fri, Nov 13 2015
  • 5:53 PM » French media say at least 40 dead in Paris attacks
    Published Fri, Nov 13 2015 5:53 PM by CNBC
    The AP is reporting that 11 people were killed in a Paris restaurant and about 15 killed in the Bataclan theater, where a hostage-taking is under way.
  • 3:54 PM » CFPB Revises Supervisory Appeals Process
    Published Fri, Nov 13 2015 3:54 PM by
    Bowen "Bo" Ranney As we wrote last week, the CFPB recently published a Fall 2015 Supervisory Highlights which included a summary of changes that have been made to the CFPB’s supervisory appeals process. The original supervisory appeal process was published three years ago in CFPB Bulletin 2012-07. The revised supervisory appeals process incorporates a number of changes. (Note... More >
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 2:07 PM » Land May Be Your Best Investment
    Published Fri, Nov 13 2015 2:07 PM by Realtor.Org
    Have you ever thought about investing in real estate to supplement your income? You might immediately think of flipping houses or leasing rental homes, but there’s another option that could be just as fruitful, if not more so: investing in land. With the economy on the upward trajectory, land is rising in demand. At the […]
  • 2:07 PM » Flashback to 2006: "Housing prices have got a long way to fall"
    Published Fri, Nov 13 2015 2:07 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Sometimes I look back through some older posts. Back in 2005 and 2006, the primary subject of my posts were the housing bubble , and the potential impact of the then coming housing bust on the US economy. There were a number of people warning about the housing bust.  Here is an interview I came across this morning.  In this September 2006 post , I linked to a Bloomberg video of Paul Krugman discussing housing: "I think we are looking at a housing cycle that we've never seen. ... If history is any guide, housing prices have got a long way to fall and the housing industry is going to go through a long drought." On a national basis, according to Case-Shiller, house prices declined 25% following that interview to the post-bubble lows. In Las Vegas, house prices fell 60%. And on the "long drought" ... housing starts fell over 70% ... and are still 30% below the level of September 2006. Sometimes economists and analysts get it right.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:56 AM » Biz inventories rise in Sept.
    Published Fri, Nov 13 2015 10:56 AM by CNBC
    Business inventories unexpectedly rose in September, suggesting the government's third-quarter economic growth estimate could be revised higher.
  • 10:56 AM » The commodity slump in 4 scary charts
    Published Fri, Nov 13 2015 10:56 AM by CNBC
    CNBC highlights the major moves that are dominating metals, mining and oil.
  • 10:53 AM » Fed's Mester says time for rate hike is 'quickly approaching'
    Published Fri, Nov 13 2015 10:53 AM by Market Watch
    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy can handle a rate hike, said Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester, on Friday. In a speech prepared for delivery to The City Club of Cleveland, Mester said history will ultimately judge the Fed's unconventional actions since the financial crisis based on the U.S. central bank's ability to demonstrate that there is a way out. "The time to start that demonstration is quickly approaching," Mester said. Economic growth should rebound to a 2.5%-2.75% annual rate over the next 15 months, from the 1.5% rate in the third quarter, the Cleveland Fed President said. The labor market will continue to improve although the big 271,000 gain in October payrolls is unlikely to be repeated. Mester, who will be a voting member next year, also said she is reasonably confident inflation will move up to the Fed's 2% target.
  • 10:53 AM » Preliminary November Consumer Sentiment increases to 93.1
    Published Fri, Nov 13 2015 10:53 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for November was at 93.1, up from 90.0 in October. "Confidence rose in early November mainly due to a stronger outlook for the domestic economy. Overall, the most recent confidence reading was equal to the average during the first ten months of 2015, and higher than any year since 2004. Two trends dominated the early November data: consumers anticipated somewhat larger income increases during the year ahead as well as expected a somewhat lower inflation rate. This meant that consumers held the most favorable inflation-adjusted income expectations since 2007. Moreover, the somewhat larger gains were anticipated by lower income households. Buying plans for large discretionary purchases improved, especially for vehicles. Overall, the data indicate an expected rate of growth in personal consumption expenditures of 2.9% in 2016. " This was above the consensus forecast of 92.0. Click on graph for larger image.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:38 AM » US retail sales barely rise as auto purchases fall
    Published Fri, Nov 13 2015 8:38 AM by CNBC
    Sales rose less than expected, suggesting a slowdown in consumer spending that could temper expectations of a pickup in fourth-quarter growth.
  • 8:38 AM » US producer prices fall in October
    Published Fri, Nov 13 2015 8:38 AM by CNBC
    U.S. producer prices dropped in October for a second straight month and the cost of services fell.
  • 8:30 AM » Money Managers Are Stuffed With Corporate Bonds
    Published Fri, Nov 13 2015 8:30 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Money Managers Are Stuffed With Corporate Bonds Bloomberg The proportion of corporate bonds in buy-side portfolios is close to a new record. Tracy Alloway TRACYALLOWAY. November 13, 2015 - 3:52 AM PST. Share on FacebookShare on TwitterShare on WhatsApp · Share on LinkedInShare on RedditShare on ... and more »
  • 8:29 AM » Stock futures drop ahead of retail sales, consumer sentiment data
    Published Fri, Nov 13 2015 8:29 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were slightly lower on Friday, a day after a sharp selloff that saw S&P 500 and the Dow close below a key technical level, and ahead of retail sales and consumer sentiment data, amid growing concerns of a slowdown in demand.
  • 8:29 AM » LoanDepot delays IPO on eve of pricing
    Published Fri, Nov 13 2015 8:29 AM by CNBC
    Online mortgage lender LoanDepot, which was expected to price its initial public offering tonight, has delayed its offering due to market conditions.
  • 12:55 AM » Fed's Fischer sees U.S. economy overcoming dollar rise and foreign weakness
    Published Fri, Nov 13 2015 12:55 AM by Market Watch
    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy is overcoming the "sizable shock" from the dollar's appreciation and foreign weakness, said Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, on Thursday. "The U.S. economy appears to be weathering them reasonably well," Fischer said in a speech to a conference on rate policy hosted by the U.S. central bank. The dollar has appreciated by 15% since July 2014, and it will remain a drag on gross domestic product well into next year, Fischer said. The Fed Vice Chair said the strong dollar is also holding down inflation. Overall inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditure index, is likely to rebound next year to around 1.5%, from the latest reading of 0.2% in September, once the effects of the stronger dollar and lower energy prices recede, he said. The comments from Fischer, which echo Fed Chair Yellen's recent statements that the U.S. central banks expects the economy to get through the foreign turbulence, add to the growing sense the central bank will hike rates in December.
  • 12:54 AM » LoanDepot Says It's Withdrawing IPO Due to `Market Conditions'
    Published Fri, Nov 13 2015 12:54 AM by Bloomberg
    LoanDepot Says It's Withdrawing IPO Due to `Market Conditions' Bloomberg LoanDepot, the mortgage lender founded by Anthony Hsieh, said it's pulling plans for an initial public offering. "LoanDepot is withdrawing due to market conditions," the company said Thursday in a statement. Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg ... and more »
  • Thu, Nov 12 2015
  • 5:05 PM » Big Corporate-Bond Trades Wane as Liquidity Ebbs, Says Barclays
    Published Thu, Nov 12 2015 5:05 PM by Bloomberg
    Big Corporate-Bond Trades Wane as Liquidity Ebbs, Says Barclays Bloomberg The explosion of issuance in the corporate-bond market is hiding evidence that it may be getting tougher to trade, according to Barclays Plc. And it may prove costly for investors. It's a decrease in large transactions that analysts led by Shobhit ...
  • 2:59 PM » Fed officials lay case for December liftoff
    Published Thu, Nov 12 2015 2:59 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve officials lined up behind a likely December interest rate hike with one key central banker saying the risk of waiting too long was now roughly in balance with the risk of moving too soon to normalize rates after seven years near zero.
  • 12:37 PM » Biggest landowners in the US
    Published Thu, Nov 12 2015 12:37 PM by CNBC
    The top 10 landowners include lumber legacies, ranchers and entrepreneurs. Who's the biggest of them all? Click ahead.
  • 12:27 PM » Existing Home Prices Rise and Price Appreciation Slows in Q3
    Published Thu, Nov 12 2015 12:27 PM by
    Existing Home Prices Rise and Price Appreciation Slows in Q3<br/>
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 12:26 PM » Gabelli: Fed rate hike long overdue
    Published Thu, Nov 12 2015 12:26 PM by CNBC
    Billionaire value investor Mario Gabelli said Thursday the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates.
  • 12:26 PM » Fed should wait with liftoff to see firm inflation signs: IMF note
    Published Thu, Nov 12 2015 12:26 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve should wait to see firm signs of rising inflation as well as a stronger labor market before hiking benchmark interest rates, an International Monetary Fund paper said on Thursday.
  • 10:42 AM » Fed's Bullard: It's time to raise rates
    Published Thu, Nov 12 2015 10:42 AM by CNBC
    Bullard, in prepared remarks, said zero interest rate policy has put the U.S. economy at "considerable risk of future inflation."
  • 10:41 AM » Mortgage Rates Higher for Second Consecutive Week
    Published Thu, Nov 12 2015 10:41 AM by
    Mortgage Rates Higher for Second Consecutive Week
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 10:40 AM » Fed must weigh impact of new financial market landscape: Yellen
    Published Thu, Nov 12 2015 10:40 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve must weigh the effects of post-crisis financial regulations and new channels through which policy affects markets as it prepares to raise interest rates, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Thursday.
  • 10:40 AM » Evans Says Fed Must Send Strong Signal of Gradual Rate Increases
    Published Thu, Nov 12 2015 10:40 AM by Bloomberg
    Evans Says Fed Must Send Strong Signal of Gradual Rate Increases Bloomberg Regardless of when it begins raising rates, the Federal Reserve must be clear that the pace of future increases will be gradual, said Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans. "It is critically important to me that when we first raise ... and more »
  • 10:40 AM » Fed still has ability to influence inflation, Lacker says
    Published Thu, Nov 12 2015 10:40 AM by Market Watch
    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - A weak Philips curve relationship does not reduce the Federal Reserve's ability to determine inflation over time, said Richmond Fed president Jeffrey Lacker on Thursday. The Phillips Curve is the relationship between unemployment and inflation. In the crudest definition, the lower that unemployment goes, the higher inflation goes. Some doves on the Fed have argued that the relationship has broken down and the Fed should not hike rates based on a low unemployment rate alone but wait for higher wages and inflation to emerge. But in a speech to the Cato Institute in Washington, Lacker appeared to be pushing back on this argument. He said Fed policy determines inflation over time "independent of whether or not there is a reliable Phillips curve correlation." The Richmond Fed President, who has dissented from the past two Fed policy statements in favor of a rate hike, said he did not think that recent low inflation "implies a more permanent departure from our target."
  • 8:51 AM » Five Strange Things That Have Been Happening in Financial Markets
    Published Thu, Nov 12 2015 8:51 AM by Bloomberg
    Five Strange Things That Have Been Happening in Financial Markets Bloomberg "May you live in interesting times" is sometimes said to be an ancient Chinese curse. Interesting things have certainly been happening in the underpinnings of global markets-things that either run counter to long-standing financial logic, or represent ...
  • 8:44 AM » World risks ‘persistently' weak growth: IMF
    Published Thu, Nov 12 2015 8:44 AM by CNBC
    The global economy risks protracted "sub-par growth," the IMF warned on Thursday, as economists continue slicing their forecasts.
  • 8:39 AM » Fed will trick the market: Trader
    Published Thu, Nov 12 2015 8:39 AM by CNBC
    Investors will once again play Charlie Brown to Janet Yellen's Lucy, warns Larry McDonald of Societe Generale.
  • 8:39 AM » Strength in labor market has Fed eyeing December
    Published Thu, Nov 12 2015 8:39 AM by CNBC
    Applications for unemployment benefits held steady at levels consistent with labor market strength, which could encourage the Fed to raise rates.
  • 2:07 AM » Post Mortem on Existing Home Sales in September
    Published Thu, Nov 12 2015 2:07 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 266 thousand initial claims, down from 276 thousand the previous week. • At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September from the BLS. Jobs openings decreased in August to 5.370 million from 5.668 million in July. The number of job openings were up 9% year-over-year, and Quits were up 9% year-over-year. • At 2:00 PM, the Monthly Treasury Budget Statement for October. • At 6:00 PM, Speech by Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer , The Transmission of Exchange Rate Changes to Output and Inflation , At the Conference on Monetary Policy Implementation and Transmission in the Post-Crisis Period, Washington, D.C. From housing economist Tom Lawler: In its latest Existing Home Sales Report released last month, the National Association of Realtors estimated that existing home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.55 million in September, way above consensus but very close to my estimate based on regional tracking of local realtor/MLS reports available prior to the NAR's release. Since then several additional local realtor/MLS reports have been released, and based on all local realtor/MLS reports released for September it appears that if anything the NAR's estimate of the YOY % increase in home sales for September was a bit low. The NAR's estimate showed a YOY % increase in unadjusted sales of 8.0% for September, with YOY increases of 10.2% in the Northeast, 10.9% in the Midwest, 8.5% in the West, but only 5.5% in the South. Local realtor reports from the South, however, strongly suggest that home sales in that region grow by significantly more than 5.5% YOY. For the other regions, in contrast, the NAR estimates seem in line with local realtor reports. Of course, this does not necessarily mean that the NAR will revise its September sales estimate higher in this month's report. The NAR's sample is based almost entirely from...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:07 AM » Large Home Builder Results, Q3/2015
    Published Thu, Nov 12 2015 2:07 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From housing economist Tom Lawler: Below is a table showing selected operating statistics for publicly-traded home builders reporting results for the quarter ending September 30, 2015. I've included results for LGH Homes, a fast-growing home builder that focuses heavily - though not solely - on "entry-level" home buyers. Note that Standard Pacific and The Ryland Group merged effective October 1, 2015, but the new company (CalAtlantic Group) provided operating statistics for the separate entities. For all of these builders combined, net orders per active community were up 9% from the comparable quarter of 2015. While several builders last quarter said that "resource constraints," especially with respect to labor (labors, land development, and trades), had caused delays in home closings and may have adversely impacted sales, a few said that "labor" wasn't much of an issue last quarter. D.R. Horton and LGI Homes were both in the latter camp, and both said or implied that their business strategies of building relatively more "spec" homes than the rest of the industry helped them by providing more steady work to contractors   Net Orders Settlements Average Closing  Price ($000s) Qtr. Ended: 9/15 9/14 % Chg 9/15 9/14 % Chg 9/15 9/14 % Chg D.R. Horton 8,477 7,135 18.8% 10,576 8,612 22.8% $289 279 3.4% Pulte Group 4,092 3,779 8.3% 4,356 4,646 -6.2% $336 334 0.6% NVR 3,258 2,936 11.0% 3,607 3,236 11.5% $380 366 3.9% The Ryland Group 1,912 1,707 12.0% 2,046 2,018 1.4% $339 331 2.4% Beazer Homes 1,170 1,173 -0.3% 1,896 1,695 11.9% $322 295 9.2% Standard Pacific 1,326 1,154 14.9% 1,165 1,250 -6.8% $537 483 11.2% Meritage Homes 1,567 1,500 4.5% 1,712 1,522 12.5% $387 358 8.1% MDC Holdings 1,109 1,081 2.6% 1,080 1,093 -1.2% $421 370 13.6% M/I Homes 988 892 10.8% 994 985 0.9% $349 320 9.1% SubTotal 23,899 21,357 11.9% 27,432 25,057 9.5% $338 $326 3.7% LGI Homes 908 553 64.2% 934 557 67.7% $186 $166 12.1% Total 24,807...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
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