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  • Tue, Sep 12 2017
  • 3:01 PM » Home Value Index Growth Slows in August
    Published Tue, Sep 12 2017 3:01 PM by
    Gap between appraised value and home owner expectations closes a bit.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 1:38 PM » House Prices to Median Household Income
    Published Tue, Sep 12 2017 1:38 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Census Bureau released the Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2016 this morning. The report showed a significant increase in the real median household income and a decline in poverty: The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that real median household income increased by 3.2 percent between 2015 and 2016, while the official poverty rate decreased 0.8 percentage points. At the same time, the percentage of people without health insurance coverage decreased. Median household income in the United States in 2016 was $59,039, an increase in real terms of 3.2 percent from the 2015 median income of $57,230. This is the second consecutive annual increase in median household income. The nation's official poverty rate in 2016 was 12.7 percent, with 40.6 million people in poverty, 2.5 million fewer than in 2015. The 0.8 percentage point decrease from 2015 to 2016 represents the second consecutive annual decline in poverty. One of the metrics to follow is a ratio of house prices to incomes.   The following graphs use annual averages of the Case-Shiller house price index - and the nominal median household income (and the mean for the fourth fifth income) through 2016. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the ratio of house price indexes divided by the Median Household Income through 2016 (the HPI is first multiplied by 1000). This uses the annual average National Case-Shiller index since 1976. As of 2016, house prices were above the median historical ratio - but far below the bubble peak. The second graph is similar but uses the mean of the fourth fifth household income (if we separate households into fifths, this is the second highest income group). These are key households since they are more likely to be homeowners (and home buyers). Using this group, prices are well below the bubble peak. Going forward, I think it would be a positive if incomes outpaced house prices, or at least kept pace with house prices increases...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:28 PM » In Harvey's Wake, Houston Rethinks Real Estate Development
    Published Tue, Sep 12 2017 1:28 PM by
    After Hurricane Harvey caused roughly $180 billion in damage, a battle is shaping up over how best to oversee real-estate development in Houston. The post In Harvey's Wake, Houston Rethinks Real Estate Development appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights |® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 12:13 PM » Florida has 828,000 mobile homes. Only half are insured.
    Published Tue, Sep 12 2017 12:13 PM by Washington Post
    Florida has 828,000 mobile homes. Only half are insured.<br/>
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Washington Post
  • 10:42 AM » Construction Job Openings Rise During Summer
    Published Tue, Sep 12 2017 10:42 AM by
    The count of unfilled jobs in the construction sector continued to rise in July, following an increase in June and a soft month in May. Given the significant need for repair and restoration work in the wake of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, we can expect additional increases in the months ahead. NAHB, for example, estimates a need for an additional 10,000 to 20,000 construction... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 10:18 AM » US job openings increase slightly in July to 6.17 million
    Published Tue, Sep 12 2017 10:18 AM by CNBC
    Monthly job openings increased in July from June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Tuesday.
  • 10:18 AM » Mnuchin: Yellen being considered for Fed chair, but so are 'a lot of great people'
    Published Tue, Sep 12 2017 10:18 AM by CNBC
    Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Janet Yellen is being considered to remain Fed chair, but there are other candidates.
  • 10:14 AM » Quicken Loans Study Shows Consumers Continue to Be Too Optimistic with Anticipated Home Value
    Published Tue, Sep 12 2017 10:14 AM by PR Newswire
    DETROIT, Sept. 12, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Appraisals continued to lag homeowner expectations in August, although the difference between appraiser and owner opinions has narrowed. Quicken Loans' National Home Price Perception Index (HPPI), which compares homeowners' initial estimates and...
  • 9:38 AM » NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increased slightly in August
    Published Tue, Sep 12 2017 9:38 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): August 2017 Report:Small Business Optimism Holds its Altitude in August The Index of Small Business Optimism rose 0.1 points to 105.3 in August, basically unchanged from July . Five of the 10 Index components posted a gain and five declined. The Index peaked for this recovery at 105.9 in January, just 0.6 points above the August reading. ... Small business owners reported a seasonally adjusted average employment change per firm of 0.18 workers per firm over the past three months, virtually unchanged from July . Fourteen percent (up 1 point) reported increasing employment an average of 4.4 workers per firm and 12 percent (up 1 point) reported reducing employment an average of 2.4 workers per firm (seasonally adjusted). Fifty-nine percent reported hiring or trying to hire (down 1 point), but 52 percent (88 percent of those hiring or trying to hire) reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. Nineteen percent of owners cited the difficulty of finding qualified workers as their Single Most Important Business Problem (unchanged), second only to taxes. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index increased to 105.3 in August.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:26 AM » Treasury selling pressure pushes 10-year yield to 2.15%
    Published Tue, Sep 12 2017 8:26 AM by Market Watch
    U.S. Treasurys saw additional selling on Tuesday, pushing yields higher, with the 10-year Treasury yield attempting to retake its levels at the end of August as geopolitical tensions have ebbed somewhat.
  • 8:26 AM » Houston's Unsinkable Housing Market Undaunted by Storm
    Published Tue, Sep 12 2017 8:26 AM by
    Most buyers are keeping deals on track, builders are expected to barrel ahead, and owners of elevated homes may find their properties more valuable.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 8:26 AM » Americans' Borrowing Hits Another Record. Time To Worry?
    Published Tue, Sep 12 2017 8:26 AM by
    Americans owe more than ever before, with household debt hitting nearly $13 trillion. Some economists say the lessons of the credit bubble that led to the financial crisis are being forgotten.
  • 8:26 AM » Lenders, investors breathe easier as U.S. hurricane waters recede
    Published Tue, Sep 12 2017 8:26 AM by Reuters
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - Financial institutions with exposure to U.S. properties hit by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma are tempering their loss estimates, as the damage to homes and businesses has been far less severe than expected.
  • 8:25 AM » CoreLogic Reports Mortgage Delinquencies Remain Low in June
    Published Tue, Sep 12 2017 8:25 AM by
    —Foreclosure Inventory Rate and Serious Delinquency Rate Lowest in Nearly a Decade— Overall Mortgage Delinquency Rate Fell 0.8 Percentage Points Year Over Year Foreclosure Rate Declined 0.2 Percentage Points Year Over Year Early-Stage Delinquencies Edged Lower Year Over Year CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its monthly  Loan Performance Insights Report which shows that, nationally, 4.5 percent of mortgages were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due including those in foreclosure) in June 2017. This represents a 0.8 percentage point decline in the overall delinquency rate compared with June 2016 when it was 5.3 percent. As of June 2017, the foreclosure inventory rate, which measures the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process, was 0.7 percent, down from 0.9 percent in June 2016 and the lowest since the rate was also 0.7 percent in July 2007. Measuring early-stage delinquency rates is important for analyzing the health of the mortgage market. To monitor mortgage performance comprehensively, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates, which indicate the percentage of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next. The rate for early-stage delinquencies, defined as 30-59 days past due, was 2.0 percent in June 2017, down slightly from 2.1 percent in June 2016. The share of mortgages that were 60-89 days past due in June 2017 was 0.6 percent, also down slightly from 0.7 percent in June 2016. “The CoreLogic Home Price Index increased 6 percent and payroll employment grew by 2.2 million jobs in the year ending June 2017, supporting further declines in delinquency rates,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “The forecast for the coming year includes 5 percent home-price appreciation and further job growth, putting renewed...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • Mon, Sep 11 2017
  • 4:53 PM » Lawsuits against Equifax pile up
    Published Mon, Sep 11 2017 4:53 PM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - More than two dozen lawsuits have been filed in the United States against Equifax Inc after the credit reporting company said thieves may have stolen personal information for 143 million Americans in one of the largest hackings ever.
  • 4:52 PM » Upcoming programs on CFPB Arbitration Rule
    Published Mon, Sep 11 2017 4:52 PM by
    In July, the CFPB issued its Final Arbitration Rule on the use of arbitration provisions in consumer financial services products and services. I will be participating in two upcoming programs related to the Rule. PLI Webinar on CFPB Arbitration Rule On September 13, 2017 at 2:00pm ET, Practicing Law Institute (PLI) will host a teleconference... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 3:24 PM » Fed is following a playbook written during World War II
    Published Mon, Sep 11 2017 3:24 PM by Market Watch
    The Fed is trying to shrink its balance sheet and following lessons learned after the world's gold supply was sent to the U.S. to escape the .
  • 3:22 PM » Habitat Hammers Back
    Published Mon, Sep 11 2017 3:22 PM by
    Companies pledge contribute $1 million or more to aid in restoration efforts.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 3:21 PM » Equifax tumbles nearly 8% as investors keep bailing after data breach
    Published Mon, Sep 11 2017 3:21 PM by CNBC
    Monday's decline adds to the 13 percent drop last week after the credit reporting company disclosed a massive data breach
  • 3:20 PM » Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate "Slips" in August
    Published Mon, Sep 11 2017 3:20 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: This index is possibly a leading indicator for new non-residential Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment, except manufacturing. From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Slips in August The Dodge Momentum Index moved lower in August, falling 2.4% to 129.1 (2000=100) from its revised July reading of 132.2. The Momentum Index is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. The decline in August can be attributed to an 8.7% drop in the commercial component of the Momentum Index, while the institutional component rose 7.3%. The commercial component has seen a steep rise over the past year as large projects - particularly office buildings - entered the planning cycle. The August retreat for the commercial component brings planning activity back to a level more consistent with a sustainable pace of development. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 129.1 in August, down from 132.2 in July. The index is only up 1.4% year-over-year. According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year". This suggests some further increases in CRE spending over the next year.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:20 PM » S&P 500 surges toward record high as fear fades
    Published Mon, Sep 11 2017 3:20 PM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - The S&P 500 surged toward a record high on Monday with its strongest one-day performance since April after tropical storm Irma did less damage than expected in Florida, and North Korea did not test missiles over the weekend, which some had feared.
  • 1:37 PM » Sources of Home Buyers and New Renters
    Published Mon, Sep 11 2017 1:37 PM by
    According to NAHB's latest special study, households who recently changed addresses fall into a natural order: 1) Buyers of Newer Homes, 2) Buyers of Older Homes, 3) Renters of Newer Homes, and 4) Renters of Older Homes, As you move up the scale from 4 to 1, the following interrelated tendencies become evident: The movers have, on average, higher incomes. More of... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 12:01 PM » Harvey and Irma economic hit could total $200 billion: Moody's
    Published Mon, Sep 11 2017 12:01 PM by CNBC
    The combined destruction of property from Hurricanes Irma and Harvey could range from $150 to $200 billion, according to a preliminary estimate from Moody's Analytics.
  • 11:39 AM » Navigating insurance claims, post Hurricane Irma
    Published Mon, Sep 11 2017 11:39 AM by CNBC
    Filing an insurance claim likely won't take priority for Floridians. Here's how to handle the process, when you're ready.
  • 10:13 AM » JPMorgan: Irma will still be one of the 5 most costly hurricanes ever
    Published Mon, Sep 11 2017 10:13 AM by CNBC
    JPMorgan tells its clients Hurricane Irma's insured losses will still rank among the costliest in history.
  • 9:56 AM » Bond Report: Treasury yields climb as hurricane, North Korea fears ease
    Published Mon, Sep 11 2017 9:56 AM by Market Watch
    U.S. Treasury prices fall, pushing up yields, as investor appetite for haven assets declines as Hurricane Irma hits Florida with less force than feared and the lack of another missile test by North Korea
  • 8:22 AM » Wall Street's 3% Yield Call Foiled Again as Bond Traders Eye 2%
    Published Mon, Sep 11 2017 8:22 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Wall Street's 3% Yield Call Foiled Again as Bond Traders Eye 2% Bloomberg Wall Street is falling further and further behind in assessing the direction of the $14.1 trillion Treasuries market. In March, the consensus was for 10-year yields to be well on their way to 3 percent by now. Inflation and economic growth would take ... and more »
  • 8:20 AM » US Treasurys lower as investors look to bond auctions
    Published Mon, Sep 11 2017 8:20 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices were lower on Monday, as investors geared up for a number of auctions by the U.S. Treasury.
  • 8:19 AM » Millennial Household Facts
    Published Mon, Sep 11 2017 8:19 AM by
    This group may not head the most households, but they do lead in other categories.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 8:19 AM » Insurers ache for qualified inspectors after U.S. hurricanes
    Published Mon, Sep 11 2017 8:19 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - Insurers are scrambling to find inspectors in Texas and Florida after fierce hurricanes battered the states one after the other, causing tens of billions of dollars' worth of property damage in less than two weeks.
  • Fri, Sep 8 2017
  • 3:12 PM » 3 Equifax Executives Sold Stock Days After Hack That Wasn't Disclosed For A Month
    Published Fri, Sep 08 2017 3:12 PM by
    Equifax says the three executives, who sold nearly $2 million in stock, at the time didn't know of the breach, which exposed personal data of 143 million Americans. Consumers struggle to get answers.
  • 1:57 PM » Equifax data breach: What you need to know
    Published Fri, Sep 08 2017 1:57 PM by CNN
    A huge security breach at credit reporting company Equifax has exposed sensitive information, such as Social Security numbers and addresses, of up to 143 million Americans.
  • 1:55 PM » House committee to hold hearing on Equifax data breach
    Published Fri, Sep 08 2017 1:55 PM by Market Watch
    The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing on the Equifax data breach that was disclosed on Thursday. Chairman Jeb Hensarling, a Texas Republican, said the breach was "very serious and very troubling" and that consumers deserve answers. Hensarling said a date would be set for the hearing later.
  • 1:55 PM » Don't count Trump advisor Gary Cohn out just yet
    Published Fri, Sep 08 2017 1:55 PM by CNBC
    Who are the Trump team members most likely to get voted off 'Trump Island?' Jake Novak has the odds.
  • 12:20 PM » Irma Could Cost $125 Billion in Damage in US
    Published Fri, Sep 08 2017 12:20 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Irma Could Cost $125 Billion in Damage in US Bloomberg Bloomberg Intelligence's Charles Graham takes a look at the potential financial impact of Hurricane Irma. He speaks with Bloomberg's Mark Barton and Julie Hyman on "Bloomberg Markets." (Source: Bloomberg) ...
  • 12:05 PM » Hotel Occupancy and Hurricanes Harvey and Irma
    Published Fri, Sep 08 2017 12:05 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: Hotel occupancy rates increased noticeably following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005. I expect the overall occupancy rate will also increase following Hurricanes Harvey and Irma - and stay elevated for several months. The hurricanes reduce supply (damaged hotels), and increase demand (damaged homes and apartments). This increases the overall occupancy rate. The impact from the hurricanes might even push 2017 to a new occupancy rate record. From STR: US hotel results for week ending 2 September The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 27 August through 2 September 2017, according to data from STR. In comparison with the week of 28 August through 3 September 2016, the industry recorded the following: • Occupancy: +2.2% to 65.9% • Average daily rate (ADR): +2.1% to US$121.76 • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): +4.3% to US$80.22 Among the Top 25 Markets, Houston, Texas, reported the largest year-over-year increases in occupancy (+23.4% to 69.1%) and RevPAR (+29.8% to US$70.13). ADR in the market rose 5.2% to US$101.44. STR will release a detailed analysis on Hurricane Harvey's impact on hotel performance early next week. emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2017, dash light blue is 2016, dashed orange is 2015 (best year on record), blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels). Currently the occupancy rate to date is slightly ahead of last year, and behind the record year in 2015. Seasonally, the occupancy rate has peaked and will decline into the Fall. Data Source: STR, Courtesy of
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:02 AM » Bond Report: 10-year Treasury yield hovers above key 2% level
    Published Fri, Sep 08 2017 11:02 AM by Market Watch
    The 10-year Treasury yield is at the verge of breaking through a key level of 2%, which could trigger a further decline in yields, as uncertainty from Hurricane Harvey and a declining likelihood of another rate hike this year have kept a bid in U.S. government paper.
  • 10:49 AM » House has the votes to pass $15 billion storm relief package, debt-ceiling increase and government funding
    Published Fri, Sep 08 2017 10:49 AM by CNBC
    House has the votes to pass $15 billion storm relief package, debt-ceiling increase and government funding<br/>
  • 10:20 AM » Fed's Dudley: Hurricanes will boost economic activity over the long run
    Published Fri, Sep 08 2017 10:20 AM by CNBC
    New York Fed President William Dudley told CNBC that hurricanes Harvey and Irma actually will lead to increased economic activity.
  • 10:20 AM » New Single-Family Housing Starts by Divisions in 2016 – Long Road Back to Normal
    Published Fri, Sep 08 2017 10:20 AM by
    NAHB analysis of the Survey of Construction (SOC) shows that, nationally, there were 779,082 new single-family units started in 2016, 10% higher than 2015. According to the NAHB tabulation of data from the 2016 Survey of Construction, new single-family housing starts were divided into the nine Census divisions, including Pacific, Mountain, West North Central, West South Central, East North Central,... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

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