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  • Tue, Jan 9 2018
  • 10:09 AM » BLS: Job Openings "Little changed" in November
    Published Tue, Jan 09 2018 10:09 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 5.9 million on the last business day of November , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.5 million and 5.2 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.2 percent and the layoffs and discharges rate was little changed 1.1 percent. ... The number of quits was little changed at 3.2 million in November . The quits rate was 2.2 percent. The number of quits was little changed for total private and increased for government. emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for November, the most recent employment report was for December. Click on graph for larger image. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Jobs openings decreased in November to 5.879 million from 5.925 in October. The number of job openings (yellow) are up 4.4% year-over-year. Quits are up 3.1% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits"). Job openings are mostly moving sideways at a high level, and quits are increasing year-over-year.  This is a solid report.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:33 AM » Americans' Optimism About Job Market Hit Record High in 2017
    Published Tue, Jan 09 2018 9:33 AM by news.gallup.com
    As U.S. unemployment continued to decline in 2017, Americans grew increasingly optimistic about the job market.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: news.gallup.com
  • 9:32 AM » US Treasury yields higher as investors turn to key data, Fed speech
    Published Tue, Jan 09 2018 9:32 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices were lower on Tuesday, as investors switch focus to the economic sphere, where key data is set to be released.
  • 8:50 AM » The bond market is doing something it hasn't done in 52 years
    Published Tue, Jan 09 2018 8:50 AM by CNBC
    Volatility in the Treasury market has sunk to a multidecade low. Here's what it means.
  • 8:50 AM » BoJ's tweak buoys yen, stocks rally rumbles on
    Published Tue, Jan 09 2018 8:50 AM by Reuters
    LONDON (Reuters) - A tweak to the Bank of Japan's bond-buying program caused the yen to rise on Tuesday, while gains from commodity stocks as oil hit its highest since 2015 helped world shares maintain their flying start to the year.
  • 8:49 AM » CoreLogic Reports Early-Stage Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Following Active Hurricane Season
    Published Tue, Jan 09 2018 8:49 AM by www.corelogic.com
    Overall Mortgage Delinquency Rate Fell 0.1 Percentage Points Foreclosure Rate Declined 0.2 Percentage Points Early-Stage Delinquencies Rose 0.1 Percentage Points CoreLogic ® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its monthly Loan Performance Insights Report which shows that, nationally, 5.1 percent of mortgages were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due including those in foreclosure) in October 2017. This represents a 0.1 percentage point year-over-year decline in the overall delinquency rate compared with October 2016 when it was 5.2 percent. As of October 2017, the foreclosure inventory rate, which measures the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process, was 0.6 percent, down 0.2 percentage points from 0.8 percent in October 2016. The foreclosure inventory rate has held steady at 0.6 percent since August 2017, the lowest level since June 2007 when it was also at 0.6 percent. Measuring early-stage delinquency rates is important for analyzing the health of the mortgage market. To monitor mortgage performance comprehensively, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates, which indicate the percentage of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next. The rate for early-stage delinquencies, defined as 30-59 days past due, was 2.3 percent in October 2017, down 0.1 percentage points from 2.4 percent in September 2017 and up 0.1 percentage points from 2.2 percent in October 2016. The share of mortgages that were 60-89 days past due in October 2017 was 0.9 percent, up 0.2 percentage points from 0.7 percent in both September 2017 and October 2016. The serious delinquency rate, reflecting loans 90 days or more past due, in October 2017 was 1.9 percent, unchanged from September 2017 and down 0.4 percentage points from 2.3 percent in October 2016. The 1.9 percent serious delinquency rate in June, July, August,...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.corelogic.com
  • Mon, Jan 8 2018
  • 4:36 PM » Lawmakers Trying To Reach Deal For Government Funding
    Published Mon, Jan 08 2018 4:36 PM by www.npr.org
    It's a busy week on Capitol Hill. Lawmakers are trying to craft a government funding bill and come up with a deal to keep DACA recipients in the U.S.
  • 4:35 PM » Trump close to decision on Fed vice chair pick, administration official says
    Published Mon, Jan 08 2018 4:35 PM by CNBC
    The position became vacant in October after veteran central banker Stanley Fischer stepped down for personal reasons.
  • 4:34 PM » Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: New Tax Law Could Impact Home Equity Borrowing
    Published Mon, Jan 08 2018 4:34 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Black Knight released their Mortgage Monitor report for November today. According to Black Knight, 4.55% of mortgages were delinquent in November, up from 4.46% in November 2016. The increase was primarily due to the hurricanes. Black Knight also reported that 0.66% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 0.98% a year ago. This gives a total of 5.21% delinquent or in foreclosure. Press Release: Black Knight's Mortgage Monitor: Tappable Equity at All-Time High, But Tax Code Changes Could Impact Homeowners' Utilization Today, the Data & Analytics division of Black Knight, Inc. released its latest Mortgage Monitor Report, based on data as of the end of November 2017. This month, Black Knight finds that tappable equity - the amount of equity available for homeowners to borrow against before reaching a maximum 80 percent total loan-to-value (LTV) ratio - is at an all-time high . However, as Black Knight Data & Analytics Executive Vice President Ben Graboske explained, recent changes to the U.S. tax code may have implications for homeowners' utilization of that equity. "As of the end of Q3 2017, 42 million homeowners with a mortgage now have an aggregate of nearly $5.4 trillion in equity available to borrow against," said Graboske. "That is an all-time high, and up more than $3 trillion since the bottom of the market in 2012. Over 80 percent of all mortgage holders now have available equity to tap, whether via first-lien cash-out refinances or home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). We've noted in the past that as interest rates rise from historic lows, HELOCs represented an increasingly attractive option for these homeowners to access their available equity without relinquishing interest rates below today's prevailing rate on their first-lien mortgages. However, with the recently passed tax reform package, interest on these lines of credit will no longer be deductible , which increases the post-tax expense of...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 4:34 PM » White House Promises Infrastructure Bill, But With No Clear Deadline
    Published Mon, Jan 08 2018 4:34 PM by www.npr.org
    The White House has said an infrastructure bill would be a major priority for 2018 and one that could garner bipartisan support. But it's not at all clear when there will be a draft to see.
  • 3:06 PM » Former House Financial Services Committee staffer to serve as CFPB chief of staff
    Published Mon, Jan 08 2018 3:06 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    In a press release issued by the House Financial Services Committee, Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling announced that Kirsten Mork, the Committee’s Staff Director, has been named CFPB Chief of Staff. Mr. Hensarling was a very vocal CFPB critic throughout former Director Cordray’s tenure. Ms. Mork will join Brian Johnson, another former House Financial Services Committee... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 1:34 PM » Hurricanes, wildfires cost US more than $300 billion in 2017, shattering records
    Published Mon, Jan 08 2018 1:34 PM by CNBC
    The NOAA report also said 2017 was the third warmest year on record.
  • 1:33 PM » Fed's Bostic says three rate hikes in 2018 may be too much
    Published Mon, Jan 08 2018 1:33 PM by CNBC
    The central bank raised rates three times in 2017, and Fed policymakers expect three more in 2018.
  • 12:25 PM » Treasury Asked Congress to Raise Debt Limit by Feb. 28, Sources Say
    Published Mon, Jan 08 2018 12:25 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Treasury Asked Congress to Raise Debt Limit by Feb. 28, Sources Say Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has asked Republican congressional leaders to raise the government's borrowing authority by the end of February, according to two people familiar with the matter. The U.S. debt limit was suspended in September ... and more »
  • 11:53 AM » Treasury Yields Dip Ahead of Fed Speeches
    Published Mon, Jan 08 2018 11:53 AM by Market Watch
    Treasury yields dip ahead of Fed speeches, central bankers will touch on the 2% inflation target, a goal that has proved elusive and mystifying for the Federal Reserve.
  • 10:56 AM » Black Knight Signs Agreement with Citi to Implement Black Knight LoanSphere Origination Solutions, Including the Empower LOS
    Published Mon, Jan 08 2018 10:56 AM by www.bkfs.com
    Black Knight Signs Agreement with Citi to Implement Black Knight LoanSphere Origination Solutions, Including the Empower LOS<br/>http://www.bkfs.com/CorporateInformation/NewsRoom/Pages/20180108a.aspx
  • 9:27 AM » Fed's Monetary Policy Cornerstone Attacked at Economists' Gathering
    Published Mon, Jan 08 2018 9:27 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Fed's Monetary Policy Cornerstone Attacked at Economists' Gathering Bloomberg Milton Friedman put a nail in the coffin of the original version of the Phillips Curve 50 years ago when he correctly foresaw that the U.S. could simultaneously suffer from high unemployment and lofty inflation. A growing number of economists are now ...
  • 9:25 AM » US Treasury yields lower as investors gear up for Fed speeches
    Published Mon, Jan 08 2018 9:25 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices were higher on Monday, as investors turned their attention to the U.S. central bank space, where three officials are set to speak.
  • Fri, Jan 5 2018
  • 5:23 PM » Mester: The labor market is 'strong' and at 'maximum employment'
    Published Fri, Jan 05 2018 5:23 PM by CNBC
    Despite a weaker than expected jobs report, the labor market overall is sound, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said.
  • 5:22 PM » Tax Reform Signed into Law, but Industry Still has Much to Do
    Published Fri, Jan 05 2018 5:22 PM by NMHC
    The landmark tax reform legislation enacted in December included numerous important victories for the multifamily industry, but the signing of the bill by President Trump doesn't end Congress' work on the issue or NMHC/NAA's advocacy on behalf of the industry.
  • 2:48 PM » Gary Cohn Says Government May Push Back Against State Tax Workarounds
    Published Fri, Jan 05 2018 2:48 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Gary Cohn Says Government May Push Back Against State Tax Workarounds Bloomberg Gary Cohn discusses the jobs report and high-tax states' efforts against SALT deduction changes. The Trump administration may try to block potential plans by high-tax states including New York and California to shield residents from state and local tax ... and more »
  • 2:48 PM » Earlier: Trade Deficit at $50.5 Billion in November
    Published Fri, Jan 05 2018 2:48 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Department of Commerce reported : The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $50.5 billion in November, up $1.6 billion from $48.9 billion in October, revised. November exports were $200.2 billion, $4.4 billion more than October exports. November imports were $250.7 billion, $6.0 billion more than October imports. Click on graph for larger image. Both exports and imports increased in November. Exports are 12% above the pre-recession peak and up 8% compared to November 2016; imports are 8% above the pre-recession peak, and up 8% compared to November 2016. Trade has been picking up. The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Oil imports averaged $50.10 in October, up from $47.26 in November, and up from $40.81 in November 2016.  The petroleum deficit had been declining for years (although the petroleum deficit has been steady for the last few years) this is the major reason the overall deficit has mostly moved sideways since early 2012.  The trade deficit with China increased to $35.4 billion in November, from $30.5 billion in November 2016.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:43 PM » Comments on December Employment Report
    Published Fri, Jan 05 2018 12:43 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The headline jobs number was below consensus expectations at 148 thousand, probably somewhat due to weather (snow) during the reference week in December (Weather was the reason I took the "under"). The previous two months were revised down slightly by a combined 9 thousand jobs. Earlier: December Employment Report: 148,000 Jobs Added, 4.1% Unemployment Rate In December, the year-over-year change was 2.055 million jobs. This is still generally trending down. Average Hourly Earnings Click on graph for larger image. This graph is based on "Average Hourly Earnings" from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) (aka "Establishment") monthly employment report. Note: There are also two quarterly sources for earnings data: 1) "Hourly Compensation," from the BLS's Productivity and Costs ; and 2) the Employment Cost Index which includes wage/salary and benefit compensation. The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees.  Nominal wage growth was at 2.5% YoY in December. Wage growth had been trending up, although the acceleration in wage growth slowed in 2017. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was essentially unchanged at 4.9 million in December but was down by 639,000 over the year. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased slightly in December. The number working part time for economic reasons suggests a little slack still in the labor market. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 8.1% in December. Unemployed over 26 Weeks This graph shows the number...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:17 AM » By all measures, a construction boom is shaping up for 2018
    Published Fri, Jan 05 2018 11:17 AM by CNBC
    The construction industry finished the year with 35 percent more jobs added than 2016.
  • 10:43 AM » Fed's Harker says two rate hikes 'appropriate' this year
    Published Fri, Jan 05 2018 10:43 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker on Friday said he believes the central bank should raise rates just two times this year, fewer than most of his rate-setting colleagues, as low inflation continues to dog the U.S. economy.
  • 10:18 AM » ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 55.9% in December
    Published Fri, Jan 05 2018 10:18 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The November ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 55.9%, down from 57.4% in November. The employment index increased in December to 56.3%, from 55.3%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: December 2017 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in December for the 96th consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: " The NMI® registered 55.9 percent , which is 1.5 percentage points lower than the November reading of 57.4 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 57.3 percent, 4.1 percentage points lower than the November reading of 61.4 percent, reflecting growth for the 101st consecutive month, at a slower rate in December. The New Orders Index registered 54.3 percent, 4.4 percentage points lower than the reading of 58.7 percent in November. The Employment Index increased 1 percentage point in December to 56.3 percent from the November reading of 55.3 percent. The Prices Index increased by 0.1 percentage point from the November reading of 60.7 percent to 60.8 percent, indicating that prices increased in December for the seventh consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 14 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. There has been a second consecutive month of pullback in the rate of growth. Overall, the majority of respondents' comments indicate that they finished the year on a positive note. They also indicate optimism for business conditions and the economic outlook going forward." emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:18 AM » US factory orders rise for fourth straight month
    Published Fri, Jan 05 2018 10:18 AM by CNBC
    New orders for U.S.-made goods in November were expected to rise considerably.
  • 9:53 AM » Fed's Bullard Says Tax Overhaul May Light Fire Under Investment
    Published Fri, Jan 05 2018 9:53 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Fed's Bullard Says Tax Overhaul May Light Fire Under Investment Bloomberg "We've made no progress on the inflation target," St. Louis Fed President Bullard says. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said President Donald Trump's $1.5 trillion tax overhaul may spur investment and U.S. economic growth ... and more »
  • 8:54 AM » December Employment Report: 148,000 Jobs Added, 4.1% Unemployment Rate
    Published Fri, Jan 05 2018 8:54 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the BLS : Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 148,000 in December , and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in health care, construction, and manufacturing. ... The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised down from +244,000 to +211,000, and the change for November was revised up from +228,000 to +252,000. With these revisions, employment gains in October and November combined were 9,000 less than previously reported . ... In December, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 9 cents to $26.63. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 65 cents, or 2.5 percent. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows the monthly change in payroll jobs, ex-Census (meaning the impact of the decennial Census temporary hires and layoffs is removed - mostly in 2010 - to show the underlying payroll changes). Total payrolls increased by 148 thousand in December (private payrolls increased 146 thousand). Payrolls for October and November were revised down by a combined 9 thousand. This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968. In December the year-over-year change was 2.055 million jobs. The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged in December at 62.7%. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.   A large portion of the recent decline in the participation rate is due to demographics. The Employment-Population ratio was unchanged at 60.1% (black line). I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later. The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate was unchanged in December at 4.1%.  This was below consensus expectations of 190,000 jobs, and the previous...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:21 AM » Final Update: 2018 Housing Forecasts
    Published Fri, Jan 05 2018 8:21 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year. The table below shows several forecasts for 2018: From Fannie Mae: Housing Forecast: December 2017 From Freddie Mac: November 2017 Economic & Housing Market Forecas From NAHB: NAHB's housing and economic forecast From NAR: Economic & Housing Outlook Note: For comparison, new home sales in 2017 will probably be around 615 thousand, and total housing starts around 1.210 million.  House prices were up about 6.2% year-over-year in October (Case-Shiller). Housing Forecasts for 2018 New Home Sales (000s) Single Family Starts (000s) Total Starts (000s) House Prices 1 CoreLogic 4.2% 6 Fannie Mae 703 910 1,255 5.1% 2 Freddie Mac 1,300 5.7% 2 HomeAdvisor 5 653 981 1,320 4.0% Merrill Lynch 680 1,275 5.4% NAHB 653 893 1,248 NAR 700 5.0% 3 Wells Fargo 675 930 1,280 5.3% Zillow 3.0% 4 1 Case-Shiller unless indicated otherwise 2 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 3 NAR Median Prices 4 Zillow Home Prices 5 Brad Hunter, chief economist, formerly of MetroStudy 6 CoreLogic Index
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • Thu, Jan 4 2018
  • 3:47 PM » St. Louis Fed's Bullard links tax bill with equity surge, stronger growth outlook
    Published Thu, Jan 04 2018 3:47 PM by Reuters
    PHILADELPHIA (Reuters) - The tax legislation approved last year is likely to boost growth and investment and is already pushing up equity prices, but should not force the Federal Reserve to raise rates any faster than expected, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday.
  • 3:06 PM » California Says Wildfires Are Making Home Insurance Unaffordable
    Published Thu, Jan 04 2018 3:06 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg California Says Wildfires Are Making Home Insurance Unaffordable Bloomberg A firefighter pulls a hose line while working to save homes during the Skirball Fire in the Bel Air neighborhood of Los Angeles, California, on Dec. 6, 2017. Photographer: Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg. More frequent and intense wildfires are making it ... and more »
  • 3:05 PM » Goldman: December Payrolls Preview
    Published Thu, Jan 04 2018 3:05 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill: We estimate that nonfarm payrolls increased 175k in December , somewhat below consensus of +190k. While labor market fundamentals appear solid, we expect a deceleration from the pace of job gains in October and November, which benefitted from a sharp employment rebound in hurricane-affected states. Our forecast also reflects a modest drag from winter storms around the December survey period. We forecast a one-tenth decline in the unemployment rate to 4.0% ...We estimate average hourly earnings increased 0.3% month-over-month gain and 2.5% year-over-year ... emphasis added
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:01 PM » Fed Puts Positive Spin on Wall Street's Trusty Recession Signal
    Published Thu, Jan 04 2018 1:01 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Fed Puts Positive Spin on Wall Street's Trusty Recession Signal Bloomberg Is an inverted yield curve the same old trusty recession signal Wall Street has come to lean on over the decades, or is it just part of the Federal Reserve's plan to avoid one next time around? Fed officials are split on the question, according to a ... and more »
  • 11:22 AM » Self made millionaire to millennials: Don't rent—buy
    Published Thu, Jan 04 2018 11:22 AM by CNBC
    Buying a home is "the escalator to wealth in America," says David Bach.
  • 11:10 AM » Consumer Comfort in US Advanced in 2017 to a 16-Year High
    Published Thu, Jan 04 2018 11:10 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Consumer Comfort in US Advanced in 2017 to a 16-Year High Bloomberg American consumers last year were more upbeat on average than at any time since 2001, reflecting more favorable views of the economy, personal finances and the buying climate, according to the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index released Thursday ... and more »
  • 10:50 AM » Flood Program Expires Jan 19; NMHC/NAA Urge Reauthorization
    Published Thu, Jan 04 2018 10:50 AM by NMHC
    As Congress returns from the holiday break, NMHC/NAA are once again urging Congressional leaders to take swift action to ensure the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) does not lapse.
  • 10:37 AM » U.S. private payrolls growth accelerates; jobless claims up
    Published Thu, Jan 04 2018 10:37 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. private employers stepped up hiring in December and planned layoffs by American-based companies fell sharply, pointing to sustained labor market strength that likely keeps the Federal Reserve on course to increase interest rates in March.
  • 10:30 AM » Reis: Mall Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q4 2017
    Published Thu, Jan 04 2018 10:30 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Reis reported that the vacancy rate for regional malls was 8.3% in Q4 2017, unchanged from 8.3% in Q3, and up from 7.8% in Q4 2016. This is down from a cycle peak of 9.4% in Q3 2011. For Neighborhood and Community malls (strip malls), the vacancy rate was 10.0% in Q4, unchanged from 10.0% in Q3, and up from 9.9% in Q4 2016. For strip malls, the vacancy rate peaked at 11.1% in Q3 2011. Comments from Reis Economist Barbara Byrne Denham: The retail real estate statistics camouflage the changes in the retail sector. Although the vacancy rate was flat for the quarter and the year, new tenants including grocery stores and gyms are taking space formerly occupied by bankrupt businesses such as Kmart. At the same time, some retail space is shutting down entirely or getting converted to other uses. Rent growth has been low but still positive throughout 2017. New construction of 1.5 million square feet was the lowest level of completions since 2013. Net absorption of 1.9 million square feet was the highest since the first quarter. Asking rents increased 0.5% to $20.85 per square foot. This increase amounts to $0.10 per square foot. The effective rent increased 0.5% as concessions are not as significant in retail real estate as they are in the apartment market. Asking and effective rents have increased 1.8% and 1.9%, respectively, since the fourth quarter of 2016 and less than 4.0% since the end of 2015. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the strip mall vacancy rate starting in 1980 (prior to 2000 the data is annual). The regional mall data starts in 2000. Back in the '80s, there was overbuilding in the mall sector even as the vacancy rate was rising. This was due to the very loose commercial lending that led to the S&L crisis. In the mid-'00s, mall investment picked up as mall builders followed the "roof tops" of the residential boom (more loose lending). This led to the vacancy rate moving higher even before...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:02 AM » Mortgage Rates Drop
    Published Thu, Jan 04 2018 10:02 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Mortgage Rates Drop
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
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