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  • Wed, Apr 22 2015
  • 10:18 PM » Dollar Is Starting to Become a Downer in the Treasuries Market
    Published Wed, Apr 22 2015 10:18 PM by Bloomberg
    Dollar Is Starting to Become a Downer in the Treasuries Market Bloomberg The greenback is heading for its first losing month since June, according to the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index. Why's that a problem for bonds? It threatens to curb demand from investors outside the U.S, who own about half of the securities in the biggest debt ...
  • 4:34 PM » D.R. Horton: Net Home Orders Up, Prices “Flattish;” Says If Prices are Low Enough, There is “Demand” from First-Time Buyers
    Published Wed, Apr 22 2015 4:34 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From housing economist Tom Lawler: D.R. Horton, the nation's largest home builder, reported that net home orders in the quarter ended March 31, 2015 totaled 11,135, up 29.9% from the comparable quarter of 2015. The average net order price last quarter was $284,400, up 2.0% from a year ago. Home deliveries totaled 8,243, up 33.1% from the comparable quarter of 2014, at an average sales price of $281,300, up 3.7% from a year ago. The company's order backlog at the end of March was 12,177, up 21.1% from last March, at an average order price of $293,500, up 4.6% from last March. Horton's home sales gross margin was 19.7% last quarter, down from 22.5% a year earlier but not too far from the company's previous "guidance." Here in a table showing the share of Horton's net orders and home closings for its three "brands:" Horton (traditional), Emerald (upscale), and Express (targeted at entry level). Horton Share of Home Orders/Closings by "Brand"   Net Orders Homes Closed Average Closing Price Qtr. Ended 3/31/2015 3/31/2014 3/31/2015 3/31/2014 3/31/2015 3/31/2014 Horton 79% 92% 85% 95% $288,800 $272,000 Express 18% 6% 13% 4% $179,100 $157,300 Emerald 3% 2% 2% 1% $561,000 $524,300 On "Express" Homes and first-time buyers, a company official said that it in the 44 markets (in 13 states) that Horton has Express communities (most being in Texas, the Carolinas, and Florida), there was plenty of demand from first-time buyers, mainly because of the price/"value proposition." Very few large builders have been building homes sized and priced for entry-level buyers, and it hasn't been clear if the reason was weak demand or many builders' inability to produce affordable homes at margins deemed high enough for the builder. Officials also said that they have yet to see any signs of weakness in its Texas markets, including Houston. There was a little confusion on the reason for the sharp slowdown in the...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 4:33 PM » Are Entry-Level Homebuyers Really This Gung-Ho Yet?
    Published Wed, Apr 22 2015 4:33 PM by WSJ
    D.R. Horton sold roughly 2,000 of its entry-level Express brand homes in the first three months of 2015, or 18% of its total sales, according to the company's second quarter fiscal results released Wednesday. That's big, considering that D.R. Horton is the largest U.S. builder by unit sales.
  • 2:52 PM » Part-time 'slack' may be nearing its end as Fed debates hike
    Published Wed, Apr 22 2015 2:52 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. part-time employment is fast-approaching levels common since the 1970s in a sign that a key part of labor market slack may be almost gone, giving the Fed one less reason to delay hiking interest rates frozen near zero for more than six years.
  • 2:51 PM » The Irresistible 2% U.S. Yield Whose Downside Appears Forgotten
    Published Wed, Apr 22 2015 2:51 PM by Bloomberg
    The Irresistible 2% U.S. Yield Whose Downside Appears Forgotten Bloomberg Who's afraid of locking up their money at yields of 2.6 percent for 30 years? Basically no one, or so it seems. Just take a look around the world. China bought $6.5 billion of longer-dated U.S. bonds in February, even as the nation reduced its overall holdings of ... and more »
  • 1:14 PM » D.R. Horton Falls as Lower-Priced Homes Seen Gaining
    Published Wed, Apr 22 2015 1:14 PM by Bloomberg
    D.R. Horton Falls as Lower-Priced Homes Seen Gaining Bloomberg D.R. Horton Inc., the largest U.S. homebuilder by revenue, fell the most three months after saying its entry-level Express Homes division may make up a greater share of sales, putting pressure on profit margins. Gross margin in the fiscal third quarter probably ... and more »
  • 1:14 PM » A Few Comments on March Existing Home Sales
    Published Wed, Apr 22 2015 1:14 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Inventory is still very low (but up 2.0% year-over-year in March). More inventory will probably mean smaller price increases and slightly higher sales, and less inventory means lower sales and somewhat larger price increases. This will be important to watch over the next few months during the Spring buying season.   Note: As usually happens, housing economist Tom Lawler's estimate was much closer than the consensus to the NAR reported sales rate. Also, the NAR reported total sales were up 10.4% from March 2014, however normal equity sales were up even more, and distressed sales down sharply.  From the NAR (from a survey that is far from perfect): Distressed sales-foreclosures and short sales-were 10 percent of sales in March, down from 11 percent in February and 14 percent a year ago. Seven percent of March sales were foreclosures and 3 percent were short sales. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 16 percent below market value in March (17 percent in February), while short sales were also discounted 16 percent (15 percent in February). Last year in March the NAR reported that 14% of sales were distressed sales. A rough estimate: Sales in March 2014 were reported at 4.70 million SAAR with 14% distressed.  That gives 658 thousand distressed (annual rate), and 4.04 million equity / non-distressed.  In March 2015, sales were 5.19 million SAAR, with 10% distressed.  That gives 519 thousand distressed - a decline of about 21% from March 2014 - and 4.67 million equity.  Although this survey isn't perfect, this suggests distressed sales were down sharply - and normal sales up around 15%. The following graph shows existing home sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). Click on graph for larger image. Sales NSA in March (red column) were the highest for March since 2007 (NSA). Earlier: • Existing Home Sales in March: 5.19 million SAAR, Inventory up 2.0% Year-over-year
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:14 PM » If Resale Prices for Homes Are Running Hot, New-Home Prices Are on Fire
    Published Wed, Apr 22 2015 1:14 PM by WSJ
    Two different segments of the housing market are yielding two different price trends.
  • 12:17 PM » CFPB files amicus brief in Fifth Circuit TILA case
    Published Wed, Apr 22 2015 12:17 PM by www.cfpbmonitor.com
    Barbara S. Mishkin The CFPB has filed an amicus brief in Billings v. Propel Financial Services, LLC, a case on appeal to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit. The issue in the case is whether a private lender extends"consumer credit" under TILA by providing loans to consumers for the purpose of paying residential property taxes. The... More >
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.cfpbmonitor.com
  • 12:08 PM » The crazy world of negative rates: Banks pay your mortgage for you?
    Published Wed, Apr 22 2015 12:08 PM by CNN
    Up is down, black is white.
  • 10:15 AM » Boom! Existing home sales hit 18-month high
    Published Wed, Apr 22 2015 10:15 AM by CNBC
    U.S. homebuyers flooded back into the real estate market in March, pushing up sales and prices.
  • 10:06 AM » Over 60 Percent of Top 100 U.S. Housing Markets Improving
    Published Wed, Apr 22 2015 10:06 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Over 60 Percent of Top 100 U.S. Housing Markets Improving
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 9:51 AM » ECB raises emergency lending cap for Greek banks
    Published Wed, Apr 22 2015 9:51 AM by Market Watch
    The ECB increases the amount of money Greek banks can borrow under an emergency lending program, extending a lifeline for the country's banks as its government continues tense negotiations with its creditors over its bailout program.
  • 8:53 AM » Searching for corporate sales amid housing data
    Published Wed, Apr 22 2015 8:53 AM by CNBC
    Earnings retain the spotlight on Wednesday, with several more blue chips and technology heavyweights set to report.
  • 8:37 AM » Stocks better than bonds: BlackRock
    Published Wed, Apr 22 2015 8:37 AM by CNBC
    Stocks and bonds are both rallying on the year, and according to Blackrock's Jeff Rosenberg, there's one clear winner.
  • 8:37 AM » U.S. Treasuries Halt Two-Day Decline Amid Tight Trading Range
    Published Wed, Apr 22 2015 8:37 AM by Bloomberg
    U.S. Treasuries Halt Two-Day Decline Amid Tight Trading Range Bloomberg Treasuries halted a two-day decline as a gauge of price swings dropped toward a three-month low. The 10-year yield has been in a range of about seven basis points this week, the narrowest since May 2014. The latest Bloomberg survey showed the majority ...
  • 8:35 AM » Mortgage applications rise 2.3%, led by homebuyers
    Published Wed, Apr 22 2015 8:35 AM by CNBC
    Buyers are returning to the housing market in ever growing numbers, as indicated by continued gains in loan applications to purchase a home.
  • Tue, Apr 21 2015
  • 9:47 PM » Treasury Department: Fannie, Freddie Bailout Wasn't A Loan
    Published Tue, Apr 21 2015 9:47 PM by WSJ
    Treasury Department for the first time clearly laid out its view on the bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: The bailout wasn't a loan, but an investment on which taxpayers are now being compensated.
  • 9:47 PM » Why Is Real Estate a Safe Investment?
    Published Tue, Apr 21 2015 9:47 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Why Is Real Estate a Safe Investment? Bloomberg Colliers International President of Capital Markets Brian Ward discusses why real estate is a great long-term asset class and the 2015 real estate hot spots. He speaks with Bloomberg's Alix Steel on "Street Smart." (Source: Bloomberg) ...
  • 4:26 PM » Weak demand, income blamed for limping home sales
    Published Tue, Apr 21 2015 4:26 PM by Market Watch
    Lame income growth and weak demand from first-time buyers are big reasons why home sales aren't stronger.
  • 4:26 PM » Wells Fargo Expands Senior Housing Focus to Address Growing Demand
    Published Tue, Apr 21 2015 4:26 PM by www.wellsfargo.com
    Wells Fargo Expands Senior Housing Focus to Address Growing Demand<br/>https://www.wellsfargo.com/about/press/2015/expand-senior-housing_0421.content
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.wellsfargo.com
  • 4:25 PM » Investors Grumble as Freddie Shifts Risk of Helping Homeowners
    Published Tue, Apr 21 2015 4:25 PM by Bloomberg
    Investors Grumble as Freddie Shifts Risk of Helping Homeowners Bloomberg Some mortgage-bond investors are criticizing a change in Freddie Mac debt that increases the risk of loss from homeowners who can't afford their loans. The government-controlled company's latest version of securities that put bondholders on the hook when ... and more »
  • 1:31 PM » Lawler: NVR: Home Orders Jump, Prices "Stable" in Latest Quarter
    Published Tue, Apr 21 2015 1:31 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From housing economist Tom Lawler: NVR, Inc., the nation's fourth largest home builder with a relatively heavy concentration in the Mid-Atlantic region, reported that net home orders in the quarter ended March 31, 2015 totaled 3,926, up 18.1% from the comparable quarter of 2014. The average net order price last quarter was $375,400, up 2.0% from a year ago. Net orders per active community were up 19.8% YOY. Home deliveries last quarter totaled 2,534, up 14.6% from the comparable quarter of 2014, at an average sales price of $371,000, up 2.7% from a year ago. The company's order backlog at the end of March was 6,867, up 13.5% from last March, at an average order price of $384,300, up 2.6% from a year ago. The company's gross homebuilding margin last quarter was 17%, compared to 18% in the comparable quarter of 2014. NVR gives virtually no "color" on its results or on the housing market in its press release, and does not host a quarterly earnings conference call. D.R. Horton, the nation's largest home builder, releases its results for the quarter ended March 31st tomorrow morning before the market opens.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:31 PM » Forget gold and stocks, Manhattan real estate is where the 1% store their riches
    Published Tue, Apr 21 2015 1:31 PM by Market Watch
    BlackRock CEO Larry Fink calls a Manhattan apartment the new gold.
  • 11:59 AM » Fair Housing Month Focus on Disability Discrimination
    Published Tue, Apr 21 2015 11:59 AM by blog.hud.gov
    Edward Tirell and his wife are no different from the average couple raising a child today. They get up early every morning, make sure their 6-year-old son is prepared to go to school, drive him to the bus stop, and then get themselves to work. But while that daily routine is played out in thousands […]
  • 11:59 AM » These Charts Will Tell You Where the Housing Market Is Headed This Year
    Published Tue, Apr 21 2015 11:59 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg These Charts Will Tell You Where the Housing Market Is Headed This Year Bloomberg The Federal Reserve is preparing to raise its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2006. Yet the gradually healing housing industry - one of the biggest beneficiaries of rock-bottom borrowing costs in this economic recovery - isn't panicking.
  • 11:00 AM » Gross: 'The short of a lifetime'
    Published Tue, Apr 21 2015 11:00 AM by CNBC
    The Janus Capital bond guru believes that German debt is representing a huge opportunity.
  • 11:00 AM » U.S. regulator wants better deposit data from big banks
    Published Tue, Apr 21 2015 11:00 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The largest U.S. and foreign banks would need to keep track of deposits better under a plan launched by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation on Tuesday, as many lenders have grown and become more complex.
  • 10:18 AM » 88,000 apply to get in this 'poor door'
    Published Tue, Apr 21 2015 10:18 AM by CNN
    The line for this "poor door" stretches as far as the eye can see.
  • 10:18 AM » How the Fed could help risk-on traders: Strategist
    Published Tue, Apr 21 2015 10:18 AM by CNBC
    Once the Fed begins to hike interest rates, any pause would be a buying opportunity, strategist Jason Trennert tells CNBC.
  • 10:16 AM » Greek Bank Bonds Fall to Records as ECB Said to Review Funding
    Published Tue, Apr 21 2015 10:16 AM by Bloomberg
    Greek Bank Bonds Fall to Records as ECB Said to Review Funding Bloomberg Greek bank bonds, including those of National Bank of Greece SA, fell to records as the European Central Bank was said to be studying measures to rein in funding to the lenders. National Bank's 750 million euros ($801 million) of 4.375 percent bonds due ... and more »
  • 10:16 AM » Goldman on Inflation: Pass-Through Disinflation: Not Over Yet
    Published Tue, Apr 21 2015 10:16 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    A few excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle: How much should we make of the firmer [inflation] recent prints? In our view, not much. The new car and apparel categories are the largest core goods categories, and are also the most sensitive to import prices. Auto import prices have begun to fall over the last few months, and we expect a decline in consumer prices to follow. Apparel import prices, in contrast, only flattened recently and remain up roughly 1% over the past year. This is not so surprising: the dollar's recent appreciation has not been primarily against the currencies of countries from which the US imports clothing, such as China. But the roughly one-third decline in cotton prices since mid-2014 is likely to result in a larger decline in apparel prices, and we expect that the full impact has yet to be felt. Our equity analysts expect apparel prices to fall for the remainder of 2015, and the 12% drop in raw cotton prices in the March PPI suggests further declines could come soon. ... What about services, which account for three-quarters of the core? Soft health care inflation has been a key contributor to lower core inflation. Slower growth of public payments for health care services and likely spillovers to private insurers suggest that health care inflation is unlikely to exceed core inflation going forward. While health care inflation should normalize from the current sub-1% rate eventually, soft wage growth in the health care industry suggests little immediate upward pressure. Shelter inflation has been among the firmest components of the core, and the low rental vacancy rate suggests this trend is likely to continue in the near term. But we see limited further upside: the National Multi Housing Council's Market Tightness Index is less elevated, and data from REIS indicate that new construction should raise the vacancy rate. More broadly, we do not view the recent data as a sign that pass-through is now behind us. Pass-through...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:59 AM » Greece facing 'Lehman moment' as debt costs soar
    Published Tue, Apr 21 2015 8:59 AM by CNBC
    As Greece's stock market plunges and borrowing costs soar, analysts warned the country could be facing its "Lehman moment" as it faces bankruptcy.
  • 8:43 AM » To The Edge : Legality, Legitimacy, and the Responses to the 2008 Financial Crisis
    Published Tue, Apr 21 2015 8:43 AM by webfeeds.brookings.edu
    Brookings Institution Press 2015 319pp. Were the radical steps taken by the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve to avert the financial crisis legal?   When and why did political elites and the general public question the legitimacy of the government’s responses to the crisis? In To The Edge: Legality, Legitimacy, and the Responses to the 2008 Financial Crisis , Philip Wallach chronicles and examines the legal and political controversies surrounding the government’s responses to the recent financial crisis. The economic devastation left behind is well-known, but some allege that even more lasting harm was inflicted on America’s rule of law tradition and government legitimacy by the ambitious attempts to limit the fallout. In probing these claims, Wallach offers a searching inquiry into the meaning of the rule of law during crises. The book provides a detailed analysis of the policies undertaken—from the rescue of Bear Stearns in March 2008 through the tumultuous events of September 2008, the passage of the TARP and its broad usage, the alphabet soup of emergency Federal Reserve programs, the bankruptcies of Chrysler and GM, and the extended public ownership of AIG, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac. Throughout, Wallach probes the legal bases of the government’s actions and explores why concerns about the legitimacy of government actions were only sporadically grounded in concerns about legality—and sometimes ran directly against them. The public’s sense that government officials operated through ad hoc responses that favored powerful interests has helped bring the legitimacy of American governmental institutions to historic lows. Wallach’s book recommends constructive and sensible reforms policymakers should take to ensure accountability and legitimacy before the government faces another crisis.   Contents Introduction: Law, Legitimacy, and Crisis Government ...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: webfeeds.brookings.edu
  • 8:42 AM » Volcker Proposal, Mortgage Insurers, BlackRock: Compliance - Bloomberg
    Published Tue, Apr 21 2015 8:42 AM by Bloomberg
    Volcker Proposal, Mortgage Insurers, BlackRock: Compliance Bloomberg Five years after giving his name to a rule designed to restrict trading by Wall Street banks, Paul Volcker is pushing for another change that would put at least one top regulator out of business. The Federal Reserve would be at the helm of a reorganized ... and more »
  • 8:42 AM » MGIC Investment Corporation Reports First Quarter 2015 Results
    Published Tue, Apr 21 2015 8:42 AM by phx.corporate-ir.net
    Records First Quarter 2015 Net Income of $133.1 Million MILWAUKEE, April 21, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- MGIC Investment Corporation (NYSE:MTG) today reported net income for the quarter ended March 31, 2015 of $133.1 million, compared with a net income of $60.0 million for the same quarter a year ago. Diluted net income per share was $0.32 for the quarter ending March 31, 2015, compared to diluted net income per share of $0.15 for the same quarter a year ago. Patrick Sinks, CEO of MTG and Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation ("MGIC"), said, "I am pleased to report that in the first quarter of 2015 the company continued to generate high quality new insurance which contributed to an increas...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: phx.corporate-ir.net
  • Mon, Apr 20 2015
  • 10:16 PM » Lawmaker Wants Fed to Name Possible Sources of Internal Secrets
    Published Mon, Apr 20 2015 10:16 PM by WSJ
    The head of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee calls "inadequate" the Federal Reserve's internal investigation into published reports on the details of market-sensitive policy deliberations in 2012.
  • 10:13 PM » CoreLogic (formerly DataQuick data): SoCal sales up 5.0% Year-over-year
    Published Mon, Apr 20 2015 10:13 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    CoreLogic released the Southern California report today for March (CoreLogic acquired DataQuick). The data shows 18,156 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties in March. That was up 35.6% from 13,650 sales in February, and up 5.0% from 17,638 sales in March last year. Note: Currently CoreLogic hasn't released the short sales and foreclosure data that DataQuick used to release.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 5:07 PM » The student loan trend that's cause of concern
    Published Mon, Apr 20 2015 5:07 PM by Market Watch
    Debt burdens are weighing on students and graduates.
  • 4:27 PM » Capitol Report: Beware the ‘super taper tantrum'
    Published Mon, Apr 20 2015 4:27 PM by Market Watch
    It's what is feared by markets and by Federal Reserve officials alike - a rerun of the May 2013 taper tantrum, when yields spiked higher on the suggestion of an imminent reduction in bond purchases.
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