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  • Fri, Jan 4 2019
  • 4:40 PM » Powell to markets: Fed is flexible and aware of risks
    Published Fri, Jan 04 2019 4:40 PM by Reuters
    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday sought to ease market concerns that the central bank was ignoring signs of an economic slowdown, saying he was aware of the risks and would be patient and flexible in policy decisions this year.
  • 4:39 PM » Rent, mortgage payments are hard to meet for workers entangled in the government shutdown
    Published Fri, Jan 04 2019 4:39 PM by CNBC
    Amid shutdown, those without much savings are struggling to make their rent and mortgage payments.
  • 3:02 PM » How can the unemployment rate increase if the economy is adding so many jobs?
    Published Fri, Jan 04 2019 3:02 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    FAQ: How can the unemployment rate rise if the economy is adding so many jobs? The BLS reported this morning that the economy added 312,000 jobs, but the unemployment rate increased to 3.9% from 3.7% in November. This data comes from two separate surveys. The unemployment Rate comes from the Current Population Survey (CPS: commonly called the household survey ), a monthly survey of about 60,000 households. The jobs number comes from Current Employment Statistics (CES: payroll survey ), a sample of approximately 634,000 business establishments nationwide. These are very different surveys: the CPS gives the total number of employed (and unemployed including the alternative measures), and the CES gives the total number of positions (excluding some categories like the self-employed, and a person working two jobs counts as two positions). A couple of key concepts ( from the BLS ): The CES employment series are estimates of nonfarm wage and salary jobs, not an estimate of employed persons ; an individual with two jobs is counted twice by the payroll survey. The CES employment series excludes employees in agriculture, private households, and the self-employed. emphasis added And the CPS: Employed people are those who worked as paid employees; were self employed in their own business, profession, or farm; worked without pay for at least 15 hours in a family business or farm; or were temporarily absent from their jobs. The household survey - employment measure includes categories of workers that are not covered by the payroll survey: the self-employed workers in private households agricultural workers unpaid workers in family businesses workers on leave without pay during the reference period Unemployed people are those who had no employment (as defined above) during the reference week; were available for work at that time; and had made specific efforts to find employment in the prior 4 weeks. People laid off from a job and expecting to be recalled are included among the unemployed...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:09 PM » CFPB Announces Opening of HMDA Data Filing Period
    Published Fri, Jan 04 2019 2:09 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    As previously reported, late in 2018 the CFPB announced the availability of a beta version of a Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data platform for companies to test the filing of 2018 data. The CFPB has now announced that the beta testing period is closed and the HMDA data platform is open for the filing... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 1:48 PM » The top 10 US cities where rents have increased the most
    Published Fri, Jan 04 2019 1:48 PM by CNBC
    Between 2014 to 2017, rents increased substantially in various U.S. cities, according to recent data from financial website SmartAsset.
  • 12:12 PM » More First-Time Home Buyers Are Turning to the Bank of Mom and Dad
    Published Fri, Jan 04 2019 12:12 PM by www.realtor.com
    Rising home prices are sending first-time home buyers straight to their parents for needed help with mortgage down payments. The post More First-Time Home Buyers Are Turning to the Bank of Mom and Dad appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 11:00 AM » Fed Chair Powell says he would not resign if asked
    Published Fri, Jan 04 2019 11:00 AM by Reuters
    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said he has not received any direct communication from the White House about his job performance, and that he would not resign even if President Donald Trump asked him to do so.
  • 10:34 AM » Powell says Fed 'wouldn't hesitate' to tweak balance sheet reduction if it was causing problems
    Published Fri, Jan 04 2019 10:34 AM by CNBC
    Powell says Fed 'wouldn't hesitate' to tweak balance sheet reduction if it was causing problems<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/04/powell-says-fed-wouldnt-hesitate-to-tweak-balance-sheet-reduction-if-it-was-causing-problems.html
  • 8:37 AM » Job Growth Surges by 312,000 in December
    Published Fri, Jan 04 2019 8:37 AM by CNBC
    Job creation ended 2018 on a powerful note, with nonfarm payrolls surging by 312,000 in December though the unemployment rate rose to 3.9 percent.
  • 8:15 AM » Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester: Our 2019 forecast of two rate hikes all depends on how the economy will perform
    Published Fri, Jan 04 2019 8:15 AM by CNBC
    Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester: Our 2019 forecast of two rate hikes all depends on how the economy will perform|| 105659798
  • 8:09 AM » Powell's plain English Fed may need more nuance: ex-official
    Published Fri, Jan 04 2019 8:09 AM by Reuters
    Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hope for a more plainspoken approach to his job may have landed him in hot water with markets and require more "nuance" going forward, a former top Fed official said on Thursday in a critique of the current U.S. central bank.
  • Thu, Jan 3 2019
  • 4:15 PM » Forget Fed Hikes, Traders Are Now Fully Pricing a Cut by April 2020
    Published Thu, Jan 03 2019 4:15 PM by Bloomberg
    Forget Fed Hikes, Traders Are Now Fully Pricing a Cut by April 2020    Bloomberg Bond traders are showing little sign of stepping back from their fight with the Federal Reserve over the path of interest rates and the market is now positioned for ...
  • 3:03 PM » Seven questions for Janet Yellen on financial stability
    Published Thu, Jan 03 2019 3:03 PM by webfeeds.brookings.edu
    The devastating Great Recession of 2008 and 2009 - the worst downturn in the U.S. economy in 75 years - and the distressingly slow recovery that followed were triggered by a severe financial crisis. In response, Congress and federal regulatory agencies revamped and tightened their oversight of the financial system to reduce the odds of…                
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: webfeeds.brookings.edu
  • 3:01 PM » What actions can policymakers take to avert the brewing national housing crisis?
    Published Thu, Jan 03 2019 3:01 PM by Washington Post
    Housing is sputtering. Home sales, home-building and homeownership have gone flat, and the rise in home prices threatens to stall out. Things aren't likely to get better soon, particularly for lower- and middle-income households struggling to make the rent and become homeowners. That is, unless policymakers act.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Washington Post
  • 1:21 PM » Fed Must Be 'Very Vigilant' in Monitoring Balance Sheet, Kaplan Says
    Published Thu, Jan 03 2019 1:21 PM by Bloomberg
    Fed Must Be 'Very Vigilant' in Monitoring Balance Sheet, Kaplan Says    Bloomberg Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan discusses managing adjustments to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. He speaks with Bloomberg's ...
  • 1:19 PM » Reis: Office Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q4 at 16.7%
    Published Thu, Jan 03 2019 1:19 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Reis reported that the office vacancy rate was at 16.7% in Q4, unchanged from 16.7% in Q3 2018. This is up from 16.4% in Q4 2017, and down from the cycle peak of 17.6%. From Reis Economist Barbara Denham: The office vacancy rate was flat in the quarter at 16.7%. At year-end 2017 it was 16.4%, while at year-end 2016 it was 16.3%. Both the national average asking rent and effective rent, which nets out landlord concessions, increased 0.7% in the fourth quarter. At $33.43 per square foot (asking) and $27.13 per square foot (effective), the average rents have increased 2.6% and 2.7%, respectively, from the fourth quarter of 2017, barely above the rate of inflation: 2.5%. Following three quarters of decelerating occupancy growth, net absorption rose to 7.3 million square feet. The fourth quarter tends to see the highest activity in both office completions and leasing; one year ago, net absorption was 7.6 million square feet, higher than the previous quarters of that year. For construction, office inventory expanded by 10.4 million square feet in the fourth quarter, above the previous quarter's 8.9 million square feet but below the three prior quarters' average of 11.9 million square feet. ... Completions will be higher in 2019 - close to 50 million square feet including 6.7 million square feet in Hudson Yards alone - while office employment is expected to decelerate. This should push vacancy rates up a bit, but rent growth should remain positive and in line with recent growth rates. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the office vacancy rate starting in 1980 (prior to 1999 the data is annual). Reis reported the vacancy rate was at 16.7% in Q4.  The office vacancy rate had been mostly moving sideways at an elevated level, but has increased slightly recently. Office vacancy data courtesy of Reis .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:19 PM » Apple's shock warning sends investors to safe-haven assets
    Published Thu, Jan 03 2019 1:19 PM by Reuters
    A revenue warning from Apple Inc rocked equity markets around the globe on Thursday as concerns over a damaging Sino-U.S. trade battle and its impact on world economic growth boosted assets considered safer investments, such as bonds and the Japanese yen.
  • 1:19 PM » Havens Are Back, Baby: Yen, Gold and Bonds Rediscover Their Mojo
    Published Thu, Jan 03 2019 1:19 PM by Bloomberg
    Havens Are Back, Baby: Yen, Gold and Bonds Rediscover Their Mojo    Bloomberg The remarkable thing about recent yen performance may not be its almost 4 percent surge against the dollar on Thursday, but the fact the currency just clocked ...
  • 11:47 AM » The president of the Dallas Fed says central bank should pause rate hikes amid turmoil in markets
    Published Thu, Jan 03 2019 11:47 AM by CNBC
    The Federal Reserve ought to stop raising interest rates until it gets a clearer picture of where the economy is headed, Robert Kaplan, president of the central bank's Dallas district, said in an interview Thursday.
  • 10:06 AM » ISM manufacturing index hits 54.1 in Dec. vs. 57.9 estimate
    Published Thu, Jan 03 2019 10:06 AM by CNBC
    ISM manufacturing index hits 54.1 in Dec. vs. 57.9 estimate|| 105657605
  • 8:29 AM » ADP: Private Employment increased 271,000 in December
    Published Thu, Jan 03 2019 8:29 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 271,000 jobs from November to December according to the December ADP National Employment Report®. ... The report, which is derived from ADP's actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. ... "We wrapped up 2018 with another month of significant growth in the labor market," said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. "Although there were increases in most sectors, the busy holiday season greatly impacted both trade and leisure and hospitality. Small businesses also experienced their strongest month of job growth all year." Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, said, "Businesses continue to add aggressively to their payrolls despite the stock market slump and the trade war. Favorable December weather also helped lift the job market. At the current pace of job growth, low unemployment will get even lower." This was well above the consensus forecast for 175,000 private sector jobs added in the ADP report.  The BLS report for December will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 180,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in November.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:14 AM » Government Shutdown Negatively Impacting Home Sales
    Published Thu, Jan 03 2019 8:14 AM by www.builderonline.com
    Government Shutdown Negatively Impacting Home Sales
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.builderonline.com
  • 7:59 AM » Super-Low Bond Yields Won't Last Too Long
    Published Thu, Jan 03 2019 7:59 AM by Bloomberg
    Super-Low Bond Yields Won't Last Too Long    Bloomberg Risk-averse investors have been piling into high-quality debt. Expect a flood of issuance from money-hungry European governments as a result.
  • Wed, Jan 2 2019
  • 4:01 PM » How is the government shutdown impacting the federal banking agencies and consumer financial services regulators?
    Published Wed, Jan 02 2019 4:01 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    The CFPB and the federal banking agencies-the FDIC, Fed, and OCC- remain open during the government shutdown as their funding does not come from congressional appropriations. However, the shutdown has resulted in the closing of the FTC. Also closed during the shutdown are many HUD operations and activities. Certain lending-related operations will continue during the... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 2:30 PM » U.S. Luxury Home Sales to Slow in 2019
    Published Wed, Jan 02 2019 2:30 PM by www.realtor.com
    U.S. luxury home sales are expected to slow down through 2019 with some notable exceptions, according to a year-end report from realtor.com. The post U.S. Luxury Home Sales to Slow in 2019 appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 2:30 PM » Oil jumps 4 percent; demand concerns still weigh
    Published Wed, Jan 02 2019 2:30 PM by Reuters
    Oil prices rose about 4 percent in choppy trading on Wednesday, supported by gains in U.S. equity markets, but concerns remained about rising crude production and weakening global economic growth which could hurt demand for oil.
  • 1:48 PM » The Fed is losing its ability to control interest rates, former Senate banking chief says
    Published Wed, Jan 02 2019 1:48 PM by CNBC
    Texas Republican Phil Gramm argues in a Wall Street Journal op-ed that the central bank's attempt to normalize interest rate policy while it also reduces the size of the securities it holds on its balance sheet could go terribly wrong.
  • 1:47 PM » Question #3 for 2019: Will job creation in 2019 be as strong as in 2018?
    Published Wed, Jan 02 2019 1:47 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Earlier I posted some questions for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2019 . I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. 3) Employment: Through November 2018, the economy has added 2,268,000 thousand jobs, or 206 thousand per month. This was the best year since 2015.  Job creation was up from 182 thousand per month in 2017, and up from 195 thousand per month in 2016. Will job creation in 2019 be as strong as in 2018? Will job creation pick up further?  Or will job creation slow in 2019? For review, here is a table of the annual change in total nonfarm, private and public sector payrolls jobs since 1997.  For total and private employment gains, 2014 and 2015 were the best years since the '90s, and it appears job growth peaked for this cycle in 2014. Change in Payroll Jobs per Year (000s) Total, Nonfarm Private Public 1997 3,411 3,216 195 1998 3,049 2,736 313 1999 3,181 2,720 461 2000 1,938 1,674 264 2001 -1,726 -2,277 551 2002 -511 -744 233 2003 120 162 -42 2004 2,041 1,894 147 2005 2,517 2,331 186 2006 2,095 1,886 209 2007 1,148 860 288 2008 -3,569 -3,749 180 2009 -5,061 -4,987 -74 2010 1,053 1,269 -216 2011 2,090 2,402 -312 2012 2,151 2,218 -67 2013 2,301 2,368 -67 2014 3,005 2,876 129 2015 2,712 2,561 151 2016 2,344 2,138 206 2017 2,188 2,163 25 2018 1 2,443 2,395 48 1 2018 is Year-over-year job gains through November The good news is job market still has solid momentum heading into 2019. The bad news - for job growth - is that a combination of a slowing economy, demographics and a labor market nearing full employment suggests fewer jobs will be added in 2019. In 2018, employment was boosted by some fiscal stimulus, higher energy prices (helped in some areas), and supply was boosted by Puerto Ricans moving to the mainland following hurricane Maria. In 2019, the fiscal stimulus will fade, lower energy prices will hurt some areas, and the supply boost from Puerto Rico is probably over. Note:...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:58 AM » New report: As home sellers lower prices further, 2019 starts as a buyer's market
    Published Wed, Jan 02 2019 11:58 AM by CNBC
    The gains in home prices are shrinking, as higher mortgage rates and concern over the nation's economy weaken buyer demand. After two years of a competitive and overpriced housing market nationwide, fewer cities are now considered 'overvalued.'
  • 11:26 AM » Question #4 for 2019: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2019?
    Published Wed, Jan 02 2019 11:26 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Earlier I posted some questions for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2019 . I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. 4) Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate was at 3.7% in November, down 0.4 percentage points year-over-year.  Currently the FOMC is forecasting the unemployment rate will be in the 3.5% to 3.7% range in Q4 2019.  What will the unemployment rate be in December 2019? This first graph shows the unemployment rate since 1960. The unemployment rate has declined steadily after peaking at 10% following the great recession. Click on graph for larger image. The current unemployment rate (3.7%) is below the low (3.8%) at the end of the '90s expansion, and at the lowest rate since 1969. As I've mentioned before, current demographics share some similarities to the '60s, and the unemployment rate bottomed at 3.4% in the '60s - and we might see the unemployment rate that low again this cycle.  If we look further back in time, the unemployment rate was as low as 2.5% in the 1950s. Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate. On participation: We can be pretty certain that the participation rate will decline over the next decade or longer based on demographic trends.  However, over the last several years, the participation rate has been fairly steady as the strong labor market offset the long term trend. Here is a graph of the overall participation rate since 1960. Note: The participation rate is the percent of the working age population (16 and over) that is in the labor force. The participation increased significantly starting in the late 60s as the Boomer generation entered the workforce and women participated at a much higher rate. Since 2000, the participation rate has generally declined, mostly due to demographics. Here is a table of the participation rate and unemployment rate since...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:00 AM » With global growth in question, 10-year yield hits 11-month low
    Published Wed, Jan 02 2019 11:00 AM by Reuters
    The benchmark 10-year U.S. government bond hit an 11-month low on Wednesday, beginning the year down nearly 50 percent from its 2018 high amid concerns about a global growth slowdown.
  • 9:30 AM » Yield Curve Tells the Fed to Hold on Rates
    Published Wed, Jan 02 2019 9:30 AM by Bloomberg
    Yield Curve Tells the Fed to Hold on Rates    Bloomberg If this keeps up, a key recession warning indicator soon will be flashing red.
  • 8:34 AM » Key Fed Yield Gauge Points to Rate Cuts for First Time Since 2008
    Published Wed, Jan 02 2019 8:34 AM by Bloomberg
    Key Fed Yield Gauge Points to Rate Cuts for First Time Since 2008    Bloomberg A market indicator watched by the Fed as one of the most accurate gauges of economic health is pricing in lower rates for the first time in more than a decade.
  • 8:07 AM » The 10 Surprising Housing Markets Poised to Rule in 2019
    Published Wed, Jan 02 2019 8:07 AM by www.realtor.com
    What are the most promising housing markets of 2019? The realtor.com economic data team found out-and there are a few shockers! The post The 10 Surprising Housing Markets Poised to Rule in 2019 appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 8:06 AM » ECB appoints temporary administrators for troubled Italian bank Carige
    Published Wed, Jan 02 2019 8:06 AM by CNBC
    Italy's market watchdog Consob has decided to suspend trading in shares of troubled lender Banca Carige for a day, daily Il Sole 24 Ore reported on Wednesday.
  • Mon, Dec 31 2018
  • 1:57 PM » Question #8 for 2019: How much will Residential Investment increase?
    Published Mon, Dec 31 2018 1:57 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Earlier I posted some questions for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2019 . I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. 8) Residential Investment: Residential investment (RI) was sluggish in 2018, and new home sales were mostly unchanged from 2017.  Note: RI is mostly investment in new single family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement and commissions on existing home sales.  How much will RI increase in 2019?  How about housing starts and new home sales in 2019? First a graph of RI as a percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) through Q3 2018: Click on graph for larger image. Usually residential investment is a strong contributor to GDP growth and employment in the early stages of a recovery, but not this time - and that weakness was a key reason why the start of the recovery was sluggish. Residential investment finally turned positive during 2011 and made a solid positive contribution to GDP every year since then. RI as a percent of GDP is still low - close to the lows of previous recessions - and was sluggish in 2017. The second graph shows total and single family housing starts through November 2017. Housing starts are on pace to increase close to 3% in 2017.   The slower growth in 2017 was due to the weakness in the multi-family sector. Even after the significant increase over the last several years, the approximately 1.21 million housing starts in 2017 will still be the 17th lowest on an annual basis since the Census Bureau started tracking starts in 1959 (the seven lowest years were 2008 through 2014).  The other lower years were the bottoms of previous recessions. The third graph shows New Home Sales since 1963 through November 2017. The dashed line is the November sales rate. New home sales in 2017 were up about 9% compared to 2016 at close to 612 thousand. Here is a table showing housing starts and new home sales since 2005. No...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:57 PM » One Year On, These Housing Markets Are the Winners and Losers of U.S. Tax Reform
    Published Mon, Dec 31 2018 1:57 PM by www.realtor.com
    The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, effective on Jan. 1, 2018, has drawn clear winners and losers among America's luxury housing markets. The post One Year On, These Housing Markets Are the Winners and Losers of U.S. Tax Reform appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 1:56 PM » Why this year suddenly fell apart on Wall Street, and what's ahead
    Published Mon, Dec 31 2018 1:56 PM by CNBC
    As the days and weeks progressed, Wall Street suddenly had a new reality to face: A market that seemed bulletproof was now susceptible to a whole range of worries.
  • 1:49 PM » Factbox: Departments hit by partial U.S. government shutdown
    Published Mon, Dec 31 2018 1:49 PM by Reuters
    Shuttered U.S. government agencies remained closed on Monday, as Democrats in the House of Representatives readied legislation intended to reopen the government that would not meet President Donald Trump's demand for $5 billion to fund a border wall.
  • 12:49 PM » House Democrats ready bills to reopen government with $1.3 billion for border security
    Published Mon, Dec 31 2018 12:49 PM by Reuters
    House of Representatives Democrats will introduce legislation this week intended to end a partial U.S. government shutdown and fund the Department of Homeland Security through Feb. 8, including $1.3 billion for border security but not the $5 billion President Donald Trump has demanded for a border wall, a senior Democratic aide said on Monday.
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