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  • Mon, May 18 2020
  • 9:54 AM » U.S. House passes $3 trillion coronavirus aid bill opposed by Trump
    Published Mon, May 18 2020 9:54 AM by Reuters
    (In May 15 story, fixes dollar amount in paragraph 14 to $3 trillion from $3 billion)
  • 9:14 AM » Futures jump on promising data for COVID-19 vaccine
    Published Mon, May 18 2020 9:14 AM by Reuters
    U.S. stocks futures jumped on Monday after Moderna Inc said its experimental vaccine for COVID-19 showed promise in early trials and that it was looking to advance the vaccine into late-stage trials in July.
  • 8:41 AM » Six High Frequency Indicators for the Eventual Recovery
    Published Mon, May 18 2020 8:41 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    These indicators are for travel and entertainment - some of the sectors that will probably recover very slowly. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers . Click on graph for larger image. This data shows the daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Blue) and 2020 (Red). On May 17th there were 253,807 travelers compared to 2,620,276 a year ago. That is a decline of 90.3%. There has been some increase off the bottom, but it is pretty small compared to the normal level of travel. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. Thanks to OpenTable for providing this restaurant data: This data is updated through May 16, 2020. The US was off 100% YoY as of March 21st. California and New York are still off 100%. Some states - like Texas and Georgia - have started to open up. In Texas, diner traffic was only down 75% YoY. This data shows domestic box office for each week (red) and the maximum and minimum for the previous four years.  Data is from BoxOfficeMojo. Note that the data is noisy and depends on when blockbusters are released. Movie ticket sales have been essentially at zero for eight weeks. Basically movie theaters are closed all across the country, and will probably reopen slowly (probably with limited seating at first). The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average . The red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year probably since the Great Depression for hotels). 2020 was off to a solid start, however, COVID-19 has crushed hotel occupancy. Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change. I added 2001 to show the impact on hotel occupancy after 9/11. STR reported hotel occupancy was off 55.9% year-over-year last week.  Occupancy has increased slightly over the last few of weeks. This graph, based on weekly data from...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:03 AM » Are We in a Recession—or a Depression? How Each Would Affect Housing
    Published Mon, May 18 2020 8:03 AM by www.realtor.com
    The past two coronavirus-ravaged months have left many folks wondering if the nation is in the throes of another recession-or a repeat of the Great Depression. The post Are We in a Recession-or a Depression? How Each Would Affect Housing appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 8:03 AM » Treasury yields rise as investors digest Powell's outlook for the economy
    Published Mon, May 18 2020 8:03 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices were slightly lower Monday morning as investors reacted to comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell following last week's market losses.
  • 8:03 AM » What did eight weeks and $3 trillion buy the U.S. in the fight against coronavirus?
    Published Mon, May 18 2020 8:03 AM by Reuters
    Unemployment checks are flowing, $490 billion has been shipped to small businesses, and the U.S. Federal Reserve has put about $2.5 trillion and counting behind domestic and global markets.
  • Fri, May 15 2020
  • 4:45 PM » Real estate CEO says NYC will overcome crisis — the city's obituary 'has been written many times'
    Published Fri, May 15 2020 4:45 PM by CNBC
    "The social, human interaction that has always been part of the strength of New York City will come back," said William Rudin, CEO and co-chairman of Rudin Management Co.
  • 4:34 PM » S&P ends higher after gyrations on reopening optimism, weak data, trade woes
    Published Fri, May 15 2020 4:34 PM by Reuters
    The S&P 500 closed higher after swinging between gains and losses on Friday as investors weighed worries about Sino-U.S. trade relations and weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data against growing optimism that easing coronavirus restrictions would boost activity this month.
  • 3:13 PM » In patchwork restart, parts of New York and other U.S. states reopen
    Published Fri, May 15 2020 3:13 PM by Reuters
    Less populated areas of New York, Virginia and Maryland took their first steps towards lifting lockdowns on Friday, part of a patchwork approach to the coronavirus pandemic that has been shaped by political divisions across the United States.
  • 2:40 PM » NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Finds 87.7 Percent Paid Rent as of May 13th
    Published Fri, May 15 2020 2:40 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the NMHC: NMHC Rent Payment Tracker Finds 87.7 Percent of Apartment Households Paid Rent as of May 13 The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC)'s Rent Payment Tracker found 87.7 percent of apartment households made a full or partial rent payment by May 13 in its survey of 11.4 million units of professionally managed apartment units across the country. This is a 2.1-percentage point decrease in the share who paid rent through May 13, 2019 and compares to 85.0 percent that had paid by April 13, 2020. These data encompass a wide variety of market-rate rental properties across the United States, which can vary by size, type and average rental price. "Once again, despite the economic and health challenges facing so many, we have found that apartment residents who live in professionally managed properties are meeting their obligations," said Doug Bibby, NMHC President. "But it's important to understand that our metric does not capture rent payments for smaller landlords or for affordable and subsidized properties. These excluded properties are the ones more likely to house residents experiencing financial stress. In addition, as current federal support programs begin to reach their limit, it will be even more critical for Congress to enact a meaningful renter assistance program. It's the only way to avoid adding a housing crisis to our health and economic crisis." emphasis added CR Note: It appears most people are still paying their rent.   This was a higher percentage than in April (at the same point in the month), and only down 2.1 percentage points from a year ago.  (Commercial is a different story).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:18 PM » GDP could decline by 42% in the second quarter, according to the Atlanta Fed
    Published Fri, May 15 2020 2:18 PM by CNBC
    The already dismal outlook for economic growth during the current period just got considerably worse.The
  • 1:36 PM » Single-Family Permits Were Solid in March
    Published Fri, May 15 2020 1:36 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    Over the first three months of 2020 - and prior to the impact of the coronavirus, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 220,416. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is an 18.9% increase over the March 2019 level of 185,336. Year-to-date ending in March, single-family permits reported growth across the four regions ranging from 21.7%... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 12:47 PM » NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity continued to deteriorate significantly in New York State"
    Published Fri, May 15 2020 12:47 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Earlier from the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey Business activity continued to deteriorate significantly in New York State, according to firms responding to the May 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed thirty points, but remained well below zero at -48.5 . ... After plunging last month, the index for number of employees increased nearly 50 points to -6.1, suggesting that after declining sharply last month, employment levels fell somewhat further in May . The average workweek index also increased, but at -21.6, the index pointed to ongoing declines in hours worked . emphasis added This was another weak report and suggests activity continued to "deteriorate significantly" in May.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:23 PM » House aims to pass a $3 trillion coronavirus relief package Friday
    Published Fri, May 15 2020 12:23 PM by CNBC
    Democrats are pushing to approve a $3 trillion coronavirus relief bill that Republicans in the Senate and White House say they will oppose.
  • 12:22 PM » Mortgage rates just hit another record low
    Published Fri, May 15 2020 12:22 PM by CNBC
    A weaker-than-expected read on April's coronavirus-affected retail sales released Friday contributed to the decline, as investors moved into the relative safety of the bond market, pushing yields down.
  • 12:05 PM » Take Five: ZIRP to NIRP, a jump policymakers must consider
    Published Fri, May 15 2020 12:05 PM by Reuters
    Love them or loathe them, negative interest rates are back in the spotlight as ammunition-depleted central banks debate the pros and cons of going down the unorthodox route already trodden by the BOJ and ECB.
  • 10:21 AM » BLS: Job Openings decreased to 6.2 Million in March
    Published Fri, May 15 2020 10:21 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of total separations increased by 8.9 million to a series high of 14.5 million in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Within separations, the quits rate fell to 1.8 percent and the layoffs and discharges rate increased to 7.5 percent. Job openings decreased to 6.2 million on the last business day of March . Over the month, hires declined to 5.2 million. The changes in these measures reflect the effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. ... In March, the number and rate of quits decreased to 2.8 million (-654,000) and 1.8 percent, respectively. Total private quits fell to 2.6 million (-640,000), while government edged down to 177,000 (-14,000). emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for March, the most recent employment report was for April. Click on graph for larger image. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Jobs openings decreased in March to 6.191 million from 7.004 million in February. The number of job openings (yellow) were down 16% year-over-year. Quits were down 21% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits"). Job openings declined sharply, and will decline further in the April report.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:07 AM » Consumer sentiment for May comes in at 73.7, vs 65 estimated
    Published Fri, May 15 2020 10:07 AM by CNBC
    Consumer sentiment for May comes in at 73.7, vs 65 estimated<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/15/consumer-sentiment-may-2020.html
  • 10:02 AM » Manhattan new rentals plunge 71% as coronavirus freezes the market
    Published Fri, May 15 2020 10:02 AM by CNBC
    New leases for Manhattan apartments plunged by 71% in April, and vacancies soared as the rental market froze during the coronavirus pandemic and more residents left the city, according to a new report.
  • 8:33 AM » Retail sales plunge a record 16.4% in April, vs 12.3% drop expected
    Published Fri, May 15 2020 8:33 AM by CNBC
    Retail sales were expected to fall 12.3% in April, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.
  • 8:03 AM » What you need to know if you are thinking about using home equity to cover expenses during the coronavirus pandemic
    Published Fri, May 15 2020 8:03 AM by CFPB
    The Bureau took steps to make it easier for consumers with urgent financial needs due to the coronavirus pandemic to access mortgage credit more quickly. If you are considering using home equity right now, it is important to understand what this means for you and look at all of your options to determine the best choice for your finances now, and in the future.
  • 8:03 AM » U.S. House aims to pass $3 trillion Democratic coronavirus bill rejected by Republicans
    Published Fri, May 15 2020 8:03 AM by Reuters
    The U.S. House of Representatives is set on Friday to debate and vote on a $3 trillion Democratic bill aimed at salving the heavy human and economic toll of the coronavirus pandemic that has caused almost 85,000 U.S. deaths and shut much of the economy.
  • Thu, May 14 2020
  • 4:18 PM » Wall Street closes with strong gains as recovery hopes offset pandemic fears
    Published Thu, May 14 2020 4:18 PM by Reuters
    Wall Street surged on Thursday as investors weighed the prospect of economic recovery against bellicose remarks from President Donald Trump regarding U.S.-China trade and a whistleblower's dire warnings about the U.S. response to the coronavirus pandemic.
  • 4:18 PM » Joe Biden Would Give Homeowners, Renters This Big Break If Elected
    Published Thu, May 14 2020 4:18 PM by www.realtor.com
    Democratic front-runner Joe Biden says he supports this controversial idea to help many homeowners and renters suffering from the coronavirus-driven crisis. The post Joe Biden Would Give Homeowners, Renters This Big Break If Elected appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 2:44 PM » Seven weeks into coronavirus lockdowns, Fed has a new, darker message
    Published Thu, May 14 2020 2:44 PM by Reuters
    One Thursday morning seven weeks ago, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made a rare appearance on NBC's "Today Show" to offer a reassuring message to Americans dealing with economic fallout from measures to contain the coronavirus outbreak.
  • 2:18 PM » As millennials flee coronavirus-ridden cities, JP Morgan teams up with American Homes 4 Rent to build large suburban rental homes
    Published Thu, May 14 2020 2:18 PM by CNBC
    In its first joint venture with JP Morgan Asset Management, one of the nation's largest single-family landlords is building its own rental homes outside Las Vegas, banking on a new millennial push to the suburbs--a push now accelerating due to the coronavirus.
  • 2:18 PM » Mortgage Delinquencies Caused by the Coronavirus Will Exceed Great Recession Levels, According to This Forecast
    Published Thu, May 14 2020 2:18 PM by www.realtor.com
    The troubles homeowners face now could make it harder for other people to get home loans in the future. The post Mortgage Delinquencies Caused by the Coronavirus Will Exceed Great Recession Levels, According to This Forecast appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 12:49 PM » House Hunters' Hunger for Small Towns Continues to Soar—Even as Interest in Big Cities Begins to Recover
    Published Thu, May 14 2020 12:49 PM by www.redfin.com
    Americans are shopping for homes in small towns at an exceptionally higher rate than they were last year and even last month The post House Hunters' Hunger for Small Towns Continues to Soar-Even as Interest in Big Cities Begins to Recover appeared first on Redfin | Real Estate Tips for Home Buying, Selling & More .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 12:47 PM » Nearly 40% of the poorest households hit with a job loss during pandemic, Fed study shows
    Published Thu, May 14 2020 12:47 PM by CNBC
    As companies quickly cut workers to comply with social distancing requirements, 39% of people living in households that had incomes of less than $40,000 reported a job loss
  • 11:42 AM » FHFA Extends Foreclosure and Eviction Moratorium
    Published Thu, May 14 2020 11:42 AM by FHFA
    FHFA Extends Foreclosure and Eviction Moratorium
  • 11:01 AM » It's "too early to write the epitaph" for office real estate, UBS analyst says
    Published Thu, May 14 2020 11:01 AM by CNBC
    As the heads of major companies like Morgan Stanley and Berkshire Hathaway tout the viability of their employees working from home for the long term, others say the office market will survive the coronavirus.
  • 10:23 AM » Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 55.9% Year-over-year, Slight Increase Week-over-week
    Published Thu, May 14 2020 10:23 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 9 May STR data for 3-9 May 2020 showed continues modest gains in U.S. hotel occupancy compared with previous weeks, but a similar level of year-over-year decline in the three key performance metrics . In comparison with the week of 5-11 May 2019, the industry recorded the following: • Occupancy: -55.9% to 30.1% • Average daily rate (ADR): -42.1% to US$76.35 • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): -74.4% to US$22.95 "The industry reported its fourth consecutive week-to-week increase in demand as the slow and steady ascent in national occupancy continued ," said Jan Freitag, STR's senior VP of lodging insights. "More people are flying, as shown in daily checkpoint counts from the TSA, and more people are staying in hotels for a variety of purposes-the weekly number of rooms sold topped 10 million for the first time since the end of March. The markets benefiting more from leisure sources in areas with more relaxed distancing measures will see a sharper recovery line than others. Overall, the recovery will be uneven across the country." emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average . Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year probably since the Great Depression for hotels). Note: I added 2001 to show the impact on hotel occupancy after 9/11. 2020 was off to a solid start, however, COVID-19 has crushed hotel occupancy. Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:01 AM » Home-Buying Demand Passes Pre-Coronavirus Levels; Inventory Down 24%
    Published Thu, May 14 2020 10:01 AM by www.redfin.com
    Adam Wiener, Chief Growth Officer of Redfin, gives his weekly update about the impact of the coronavirus on housing. The post Home-Buying Demand Passes Pre-Coronavirus Levels; Inventory Down 24% appeared first on Redfin | Real Estate Tips for Home Buying, Selling & More .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 8:39 AM » US weekly jobless claims rise 2.981 million, vs 2.7 million expected
    Published Thu, May 14 2020 8:39 AM by CNBC
    First-time jobless claims were expected to rise by 2.7 million last week, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.
  • 8:31 AM » Credit for Builders Tightens, Virus Blamed
    Published Thu, May 14 2020 8:31 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    For the first time since 2012, builders and developers reported tighter credit conditions on loans for land acquisition, development and single-family construction (AD&C) in NAHB's AD&C financing survey for the first quarter of 2020. The net tightening index derived from the NAHB survey jumped to 22.7, about 40 points higher than the -22.3 reported in the fourth quarter of 2019. ... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 8:08 AM » Treasury yields slide after Fed comments, ahead of new US jobless claims data
    Published Thu, May 14 2020 8:08 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices continued to climb Thursday morning ahead of the next round of unemployment claims figures, as the coronavirus pandemic continues to hammer the labor market.
  • 8:05 AM » April's Hottest Markets: Even Coronavirus Can't Keep These Real Estate Hot Spots Down
    Published Thu, May 14 2020 8:05 AM by www.realtor.com
    Realtor.com released its ranking of the hottest housing markets in April. Even the coronavirus can't keep these real estate hot spots down. The post April’s Hottest Markets: Even Coronavirus Can’t Keep These Real Estate Hot Spots Down appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • Wed, May 13 2020
  • 4:35 PM » Fannie Mae Announces COVID-19 Payment Deferral
    Published Wed, May 13 2020 4:35 PM by Fannie Mae
    WASHINGTON, DC - Fannie Mae (FNMA/OTCQB) today announced COVID-19 payment deferral, a payment deferral option for homeowners who experienced a financial hardship due to COVID-19 that has been resolved and are ready to resume their monthly mortgage payments.
  • 4:25 PM » Fed's Mester sees a recovery or a 'much more dire' scenario as equally possible
    Published Wed, May 13 2020 4:25 PM by CNBC
    Mester echoed Chairman Jerome Powell's mostly pessimistic view on the economy, telling CNBC on Wednesday that while growth is likely to return by the end of the year, it could be slow.
  • 4:24 PM » Wall Street ends down on Powell's sober outlook, call to Congress for help
    Published Wed, May 13 2020 4:24 PM by Reuters
    The S&P 500 closed lower for the second day in a row after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned on Wednesday of extended economic weakness due to the coronavirus pandemic and called for Congress to agree on additional fiscal support.
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