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  • Thu, Jul 20 2017
  • 10:12 AM » Remodeling Market Indicator Remains in Positive Territory
    Published Thu, Jul 20 2017 10:12 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    The Remodeling Market Index (RMI) dropped 3 points to 55 in the second quarter of 2017, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Although the RMI posted a decrease, it has been at or above 50 for 17 consecutive quarters. A reading above 50 indicates that more remodelers report market activity is higher (compared to the prior quarter)... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 9:38 AM » Fannie-Freddie Reform Might Hinge on Keeping Small Lenders Happy
    Published Thu, Jul 20 2017 9:38 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Fannie-Freddie Reform Might Hinge on Keeping Small Lenders Happy Bloomberg A decade ago, Brian Koss was a senior vice president at Countrywide Financial who saw firsthand how big lenders muscled out small ones during the housing boom by cutting special deals with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Now, as a senior executive at a ... and more »
  • 9:29 AM » BlackRock bond guru sees low rates for longer no matter who becomes the next Fed chair
    Published Thu, Jul 20 2017 9:29 AM by CNBC
    BlackRock's Rick Rieder says the new Fed chair's transition will be normal.
  • 8:57 AM » Mario Draghi, Vítor Constâncio: Introductory statement to the press conference
    Published Thu, Jul 20 2017 8:57 AM by www.ecb.europa.eu
    Mario Draghi, Vítor Constâncio: Introductory statement to the press conference<br/>https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/pressconf/2017/html/ecb.is170720.en.html
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.ecb.europa.eu
  • 8:57 AM » U.S. jobless claims fall to near five-month low
    Published Thu, Jul 20 2017 8:57 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, touching its lowest level in nearly five months, suggesting another month of strong job growth.
  • 8:09 AM » US homes are now more valuable than ever
    Published Thu, Jul 20 2017 8:09 AM by CNBC
    The median home value in June surpassed $200,000, up 7 percent from a year ago, according to Zillow.
  • 8:09 AM » Bill Gross warns of recession risk if highly levered economies hike rates
    Published Thu, Jul 20 2017 8:09 AM by Reuters
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - Highly levered domestic and global economies including the United States, which have "feasted" on easy monetary policies in recent years, cannot withstand a normalizing of short-term interest rates without running the risk of a recession, influential bond investor Bill Gross of Janus Henderson Investors warned on Thursday.
  • 8:09 AM » ECB holds interest rates steady as traders eye Draghi comments on QE 'tapering'
    Published Thu, Jul 20 2017 8:09 AM by CNBC
    The European Central Bank (ECB) held interest rates steady Thursday, amid speculation that the bank will start to scale back its ultra-loose monetary policy in the fall.
  • Wed, Jul 19 2017
  • 4:36 PM » U.S. judge allows VW bondholder suit to continue
    Published Wed, Jul 19 2017 4:36 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A federal judge in California on Wednesday allowed some claims to proceed by bondholders who sued Volkswagen AG over its diesel emissions scandal, but agreed to the German automaker's request to dismiss parts of the lawsuit.
  • 4:36 PM » Corporate Bond Traders Play Chicken
    Published Wed, Jul 19 2017 4:36 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Corporate Bond Traders Play Chicken Bloomberg Investors think their peers will keep buying the expensive debt because there are few other options. By. Lisa Abramowicz. @lisaabramowicz1 More stories by Lisa Abramowicz. Wed Jul 19 2017 11:00:10 GMT-0700 (PDT). From. Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/ ...
  • 4:36 PM » More Americans are renters now than at any time in the last 50 years
    Published Wed, Jul 19 2017 4:36 PM by Market Watch
    There haven't been this many households renting since 1965.
  • 4:36 PM » Suburban Poverty Is Growing—and It's Affecting Housing Markets
    Published Wed, Jul 19 2017 4:36 PM by www.realtor.com
    Poverty is still concentrated in the nation's cities and rural areas, but it is spreading rapidly to the suburbs and exurbs. The post Suburban Poverty Is Growing-and It’s Affecting Housing Markets appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 3:02 PM » CFPB provides additional HMDA reporting guidance
    Published Wed, Jul 19 2017 3:02 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    The CFPB issued HMDA Loan Scenarios on July 19, 2017 to provide additional guidance to the industry on reporting transactions under the revised HMDA rule, which has a January 1, 2018 effective date for most provisions. The guidance includes loan scenarios for a single-family mortgage loan, multifamily mortgage loan, and home equity line of credit. For... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 3:01 PM » Debt Ceiling Concerns Start to Surface in Treasury Bills
    Published Wed, Jul 19 2017 3:01 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Debt Ceiling Concerns Start to Surface in Treasury Bills Bloomberg When it comes to the debt ceiling, short-term investors aren't waiting for Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to inform Congress of the exact date the U.S. will run out of cash. Traders are already willing to pay more for bills maturing after Oct. 19 to ...
  • 11:57 AM » New Home Construction Is Finally Rising—What That Means for Buyers
    Published Wed, Jul 19 2017 11:57 AM by www.realtor.com
    Homebuilders have been busy bees this summer, and it looks like more new home construction is on the way. Should buyers close now or wait? The post New Home Construction Is Finally Rising-What That Means for Buyers appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 10:11 AM » AIA: Architecture Billings Index positive in June
    Published Wed, Jul 19 2017 10:11 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture firms end second quarter on a strong note For the fifth consecutive month, architecture firms recorded increasing demand for design services as reflected in the June Architecture Billings Index (ABI). As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the June ABI score was 54.2 , up from a score of 53.0 in the previous month. This score reflects an increase in design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 58.6, down from a reading of 62.4 the previous month, while the new design contracts index decreased from 54.8 to 53.7. "So far this year, new activity coming into architecture firms has generally exceeded their ability to complete ongoing projects," said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. "Now, firms seem to be ramping up enough to manage these growing workloads." ... • Regional averages: South (54.8), West (53.1), Midwest (51.9), Northeast (51.5) • Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (57.1), mixed practice (53.8), institutional (52.6), commercial / industrial (52.1) emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 54.2 in June, up from 53.0 the previous month. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. According to the AIA, there is an "approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending" on non-residential construction.  This...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:27 AM » Crash in bond markets, Fed mistake are investors' biggest fears right now, survey finds
    Published Wed, Jul 19 2017 8:27 AM by CNBC
    A crash in global bond markets and a policy mistake by central banks could be the biggest tail risks to the market, according to a survey.
  • 8:27 AM » ECB to hold steady this week as traders eye a September ‘taper' of its bond-buying program
    Published Wed, Jul 19 2017 8:27 AM by CNBC
    The European Central Bank is widely expected to hold interest rates steady on Thursday with many market watchers expecting the bank to announce in September plans to reduce its bond buying program.
  • 8:25 AM » That 30-year mortgage might not be your best option
    Published Wed, Jul 19 2017 8:25 AM by CNBC
    The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is the most common way Americans attain homeownership. But don't assume it's your best bet.
  • Tue, Jul 18 2017
  • 3:38 PM » Luxury home sales jump in New York's Hamptons
    Published Tue, Jul 18 2017 3:38 PM by CNBC
    Luxury property sales in the Hamptons are on the upswing thanks to a buoyant stock market, real estate data show.
  • 1:58 PM » Wealthy Investors Are Leaving Hedge Funds for Real Estate
    Published Tue, Jul 18 2017 1:58 PM by Bloomberg
    Wealthy Investors Are Leaving Hedge Funds for Real Estate Bloomberg Wealthy investors boosted bets on real estate and left hedge funds and equities as concern over high valuations and geopolitical risk push them back to basics. They had 33 percent of their portfolios on average in real estate at the end of the second ...
  • 1:57 PM » Housing and Policy
    Published Tue, Jul 18 2017 1:57 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The NAHB Builder confidence survey declined this morning (although still solid), and the NAHB blamed the rising prices, especially for lumber. As Diana Olick noted on CNBC: Builder confidence jumped 6 points from November to December (63 to 69) and then jumped again to 71 in March, following the administration's repeal of certain environmental regulations specifically involving water. Now, new tariffs on Canadian lumber of up to 24 percent announced by the Trump administration in May, as well as the expectation of additional tariffs on other homebuilding materials imported from overseas, are overtaking the benefits of deregulation. The cost of framing lumber has spiked in recent months and continues to rise today, which only exacerbates already rising prices for land and skilled labor. Those tariffs are impacting lumber prices . Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery. This graph shows two measures of lumber prices: 1) Framing Lumber from Random Lengths through June 2017 ( via NAHB ), and 2) CME framing futures. Right now Random Lengths prices are up 14% from a year ago, and CME futures are up about 18% year-over-year. And immigration policy will likely slow household formation . Housing economist Tom Lawler wrote an excellent article last month: Lawler: Reasonable Population Projections Are Important! . Here are some excepts (look at the table and see how important immigration is for household formation). From Tom Lawler: elow is a table of what labor force growth and US household formations would be under each scenario if (1) labor force participation rates by age remained constant at 2016 levels; and (2) household headship rates by age remain constant at my "best guess" rates for 2016 (there are no good, reliable data on households since 2010, but that is a different story!). I realize, of course, that holding labor force participation rates and headship rates by age constant is not a "best guess" projection, but I'm just trying...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:30 PM » Financial markets are starting to rethink the 'Trump Trade' after health bill failure
    Published Tue, Jul 18 2017 12:30 PM by CNBC
    The Senate's failure to replace Obamacare raises new worries for markets that the Trump administration will not be able to push through other programs.
  • 10:41 AM » Foreign U.S. Home Sales Dollar Volume Surges 49 Percent to Record $153 Billion
    Published Tue, Jul 18 2017 10:41 AM by Google News
    WASHINGTON (July 18, 2017) – Fueled by a substantial increase in sales dollar volume from Canadian buyers, foreign investment in U.S. residential real estate skyrocketed to a new high, as transactions grew in each of the top five countries where buyers originated. This is according to an annual survey of residential purchases from international buyers released today by the National Association of Realtors ®, which also revealed that nearly half of all foreign sales were in three states: Florida, California and Texas. NAR’s 2017 Profile of International... Read More
  • 8:53 AM » US import prices post second monthly drop
    Published Tue, Jul 18 2017 8:53 AM by CNBC
    U.S. import prices fell for a second straight month in June amid further declines in the cost of petroleum products, suggesting inflation pressures could remain benign for a while.
  • 8:53 AM » Bank of America's quarterly profit rises 11 percent
    Published Tue, Jul 18 2017 8:53 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - Bank of America Corp, the second-largest U.S. lender by assets, reported an 11 percent rise in quarterly profit on Tuesday as net interest income increased.
  • 8:39 AM » New life in U.S. housing market not evident in big bank results
    Published Tue, Jul 18 2017 8:39 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - The U.S. housing sector has seen prices, sales and financing applications soar lately as more buyers entered the market for the first time, but those trends were hard to see in big banks' mortgage businesses during the second quarter.
  • Mon, Jul 17 2017
  • 3:43 PM » House Appropriations Committee approves bill making CFPB reforms
    Published Mon, Jul 17 2017 3:43 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    This past Thursday, by a vote of 31-21, the House Appropriations Committee approved the fiscal year 2018 Financial Services and General Government Appropriations bill. In addition to multiple provisions to reform the CFPB, the bill contains a provision intended to override the Second Circuit's opinion in Madden v. Midland Funding. In Madden, the court held... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 3:43 PM » Residential Construction Loan Growth at Smaller Banks Has Slowed
    Published Mon, Jul 17 2017 3:43 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    Residential construction loans held by banks have grown over the past 4 years. However, in recent quarters, growth in the stock of residential construction loans has slowed. The recent slowdown in residential construction loan volume largely reflects a deceleration in growth across smaller banks, those with assets at or below $10 billion. These banks hold the majority of the bank-held... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 1:06 PM » Former Fed President Fisher notes that the Fed expects a fall in equity prices
    Published Mon, Jul 17 2017 1:06 PM by CNBC
    The full interview with Richard Fisher.
  • 10:51 AM » U.S. Heavy Truck Sales increased following Oil Price Related Slump
    Published Mon, Jul 17 2017 10:51 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The following graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the June 2017 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 181 thousand in April and May 2009, on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Then sales increased more than 2 1/2 times, and hit 479 thousand SAAR in June 2015. Heavy truck sales declined again - probably mostly due to the weakness in the oil sector - and bottomed at 352 thousand SAAR in October 2016. Click on graph for larger image. With the increase in oil prices over the last year, heavy truck sales have been increasing too. Heavy truck sales were at 402 thousand SAAR in June 2017.>
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:24 AM » Expansion Expected to Decelerate in Second Half | Fannie ...
    Published Mon, Jul 17 2017 9:24 AM by Fannie Mae
    News Release. Share This: July 17, 2017. Expansion Expected to Decelerate in Second Half. Matthew Classick. 202-752-3662. ...
  • 9:24 AM » New York manufacturing activity slows sharply in July
    Published Mon, Jul 17 2017 9:24 AM by CNBC
    Manufacturing in New York state grew for a second month in July but at a much slower pace, as new orders and shipments both slipped.
  • 8:44 AM » Here's how much you need to make to afford rent in 11 of the largest U.S. cities
    Published Mon, Jul 17 2017 8:44 AM by CNBC
    You need a $179,529 salary to afford a two-bedroom apartment in San Francisco.
  • 8:37 AM » US Treasurys eke out gains as bond investors look to data, auctions
    Published Mon, Jul 17 2017 8:37 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices were slightly higher on Monday, as investors turned their attention to upcoming data releases and auctions.
  • Fri, Jul 14 2017
  • 2:56 PM » Unchanged CPI Slows Pace to Fed's Inflation Goal - Bloomberg
    Published Fri, Jul 14 2017 2:56 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Unchanged CPI Slows Pace to Fed's Inflation Goal Bloomberg Frances Donald, senior economist at Manulife Asset Management, examines U.S. CPI data and how inflation plays into the economy and monetary policy. She speaks on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas." (Source: Bloomberg) ...
  • 2:22 PM » Mark Hulbert: What the flattening yield curve is trying to tell us
    Published Fri, Jul 14 2017 2:22 PM by Market Watch
    The spread between short- and long interest rates is an excellent leading indicator, writes Mark Hulbert.
  • 2:18 PM » First Look at 2018 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base
    Published Fri, Jul 14 2017 2:18 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The BLS reported this morning: The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 1.5 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 238.813 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.1 percent prior to seasonal adjustment. CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA). The calculation dates have changed over time (see Cost-of-Living Adjustments ), but the current calculation uses the average CPI-W for the three months in Q3 (July, August, September) and compares to the average for the highest previous average of Q3 months. Note: this is not the headline CPI-U, and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). • In 2016, the Q3 average of CPI-W was 235.057. This was the highest Q3 average, so we have to compare Q3 this year to last year. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows CPI-W since January 2000. The red lines are the Q3 average of CPI-W for each year. Note: The year labeled for the calculation, and the adjustment is effective for December of that year (received by beneficiaries in January of the following year). CPI-W was up 1.5% year-over-year in June, and although this is very early - we need the data for July, August and September - my current guess is COLA will be positive this year, and will probably be around 1% to 2% this year. Contribution and Benefit Base The law prohibits an increase in the contribution and benefit base if COLA is not greater than zero.  However if the there is even a small increase in COLA (seems likely this year), the contribution base will be adjusted using the National Average Wage Index . From Social Security: Cost-of-Living Adjustment Must Be Greater Than Zero ... ... any amount that is directly dependent for its value on the COLA would not increase. For example, the maximum Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payment amounts would not increase if there were no COLA. ... if there were no COLA, section...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:53 PM » After lofty views, economists see second quarter growth bumping along at same slow trend
    Published Fri, Jul 14 2017 1:53 PM by CNBC
    Economists in the CNBC/Moody's Analytics rapid update now see second quarter growth tracking at 2.5 percent, in line with the slow pace of the last several years.
  • 1:25 PM » Will SoFi end up buying fallen/revived lender Sindeo?
    Published Fri, Jul 14 2017 1:25 PM by The Basis Point
    When I wrote about fallen fintech mortgage lender Sindeo a few weeks ago, it was to share lessons learned about a fellow competitor who was struggling in a very tough business. Now that they've been revived after one of their investors acquired them this week, I want to highlight an unspoken lesson from that piece because it might be the most important lesson of all:
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: The Basis Point
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