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  • Fri, Aug 12 2016
  • 3:09 PM » Home Equity Loans Come Back to Haunt Borrowers, Banks
    Published Fri, Aug 12 2016 3:09 PM by www.realtor.com
    More homeowners are missing payments on their home-equity lines of credit, or Helocs, causing a rise in delinquencies at banks. The post Home Equity Loans Come Back to Haunt Borrowers, Banks appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 12:55 PM » The Housing Bottom and Comparing Recoveries
    Published Fri, Aug 12 2016 12:55 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    In early 2012 I wrote The Housing Bottom is Here and Housing: The Two Bottoms , I pointed out there are usually two bottoms for housing: the first for new home sales, housing starts and residential investment, and the second bottom is for house prices. For the bottom in activity, I presented a graph of Single family housing starts, New Home Sales, and Residential Investment (RI) as a percent of GDP. When I posted that graph, the bottom wasn't obvious to everyone. Here is an update to that graph. Click on graph for larger image. The arrows point to some of the earlier peaks and troughs for these three measures. The purpose of this graph is to show that these three indicators generally reach peaks and troughs together. Note that Residential Investment is quarterly and single-family starts and new home sales are monthly. For the most recent housing bust, the bottom was spread over a few years from 2009 into 2011. This was a long flat bottom - something a number of us predicted given the overhang of existing vacant housing units. In 2012 , I argued that the current housing recovery would continue to be sluggish relative to previous housing recoveries. I suggested there were several reasons for this.  From my 2012 post: First, the causes of this downturn were different than in most cycles. Usually housing down cycles are related to the Fed fighting inflation, and then housing comes back strongly when the Fed starts to ease again. But in this cycle, the housing downturn was the result of the bursting of the housing bubble and the financial crisis. As everyone now knows (or should know by now), recoveries following a financial crisis are sluggish. This is especially true for housing as all the excesses have to be worked down before the recovery will become robust. In some areas of the country, housing is starting to recover, and in other areas there are still a large number of excess vacant houses (although the number is being reduced just about everywhere). There...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:36 AM » Americans still love spending on their homes
    Published Fri, Aug 12 2016 11:36 AM by CNN
    There's no place like home -- especially for Americans these days.
  • 10:52 AM » Consumer sentiment inches higher in August
    Published Fri, Aug 12 2016 10:52 AM by CNBC
    A key measure of consumers' attitudes was slightly so far this month, but didn't rise as much as expected.
  • 10:52 AM » US business inventories rise marginally as sales jump
    Published Fri, Aug 12 2016 10:52 AM by CNBC
    U.S. inventories rose moderately in June as sales recorded their biggest increase in nearly 3-1/2 years.
  • 9:10 AM » US retail sales unexpectedly flat in July
    Published Fri, Aug 12 2016 9:10 AM by CNBC
    Sales stalled in July, pointing to a moderation in spending that could temper expectations of an acceleration in growth in the third quarter.
  • 9:10 AM » US producer prices fall on services, energy costs
    Published Fri, Aug 12 2016 9:10 AM by CNBC
    Prices unexpectedly fell in July, pointing to a tame inflation environment that could make it difficult for the Fed to raise interest rates.
  • 9:10 AM » China GDP growth to fall below 6% by 2020: IMF
    Published Fri, Aug 12 2016 9:10 AM by CNBC
    China's once-stellar economic growth will grind lower for the next five years and will fall below 6 percent in 2020, the IMF forecast on Friday.
  • 9:09 AM » How to Sell a House in Red Hot America
    Published Fri, Aug 12 2016 9:09 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg How to Sell a House in Red Hot America Bloomberg Air conditioning has become ubiquitous in new U.S. homes over the past four decades. That's true in the South, where it was already common when the Census Bureau started tracking the amenity in 1973, and even more dramatically so in the Northeast, ...
  • 9:09 AM » Home prices shutting out buyers; reg burden not helping
    Published Fri, Aug 12 2016 9:09 AM by NAFCU
    Overall home prices are now only 2 percent below their July 2006 peak, marking a housing recovery that has left behind many middle-class potential buyers, according to The Wall Street Journal.
  • Thu, Aug 11 2016
  • 2:49 PM » One Sign Treasuries Liquidity Is Better Than It's Been in Years
    Published Thu, Aug 11 2016 2:49 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg One Sign Treasuries Liquidity Is Better Than It's Been in Years Bloomberg A crucial corner of the bond market is signaling that dealers are having an easier time financing their Treasuries holdings, reducing concern that liquidity has become strained in trading of some U.S. government debt. In the $1.6 trillion tri-party ... and more »
  • 2:49 PM » The Typical Home in San Jose Now Costs More Than $1 Million
    Published Thu, Aug 11 2016 2:49 PM by www.realtor.com
    Home prices rose in 83% of metropolitan areas across the U.S. from a year ago in the second quarter. The post The Typical Home in San Jose Now Costs More Than $1 Million appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 2:49 PM » Negative Rates for the People Arrive as German Bank Gives In
    Published Thu, Aug 11 2016 2:49 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Negative Rates for the People Arrive as German Bank Gives In Bloomberg When the European Central Bank introduced a negative interest rate on lenders' deposits two years ago, few thought things would ever go this far. This week, a German cooperative savings bank in the Bavarian village of Gmund am Tegernsee -- population ... and more »
  • 2:48 PM » Mortgage Delinquencies and the Unemployment Rate
    Published Thu, Aug 11 2016 2:48 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    In the press release for the MBA quarterly National Delinquency Survey for Q2 , Marina Walsh, MBA's Vice President of Industry Analysis, wrote: "The mortgage delinquency rate tracks closely with the nation's improving unemployment rate. In the second quarter of 2016, the mortgage delinquency rate was 4.66 percent, while the unemployment rate was 4.87 percent. By comparison, at its peak in the first quarter of 2010, the delinquency rate was 10.06 percent and the unemployment rate stood at 9.83 percent." Here is a graph comparing the mortgage delinquency rate and the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate is in Red, the mortgage delinquency rate (excluding in foreclosure) is in Blue, and the combined delinquency and in foreclosure is in Purple. Click on graph for larger image. As Ms. Walsh noted, the delinquency rate has pretty much tracked the unemployment rate since the great recession. In 2002, the mortgage delinquency rate was below the unemployment rate, probably because house prices were rising even as the unemployment rate was still recovering from the 2001 recession. A huge difference between the great recession and prior periods was the large number of homes in the foreclosure process (Purple is a combination of the mortgage delinquency rate and the percent of homes in foreclosure). The combined rate of delinquencies and in foreclosure is now below the combined rate in 2002.  The mix is different (more in the foreclosure process now).   These rates are getting close to normal (foreclosures are still elevated).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:16 PM » Rising Home Prices Affect Housing Affordability in the Second Quarter
    Published Thu, Aug 11 2016 12:16 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    Solid home price appreciation more than offset a modest reduction in mortgage interest rates to push housing affordability lower in the second quarter of 2016, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI). In all, 62 percent of new and existing homes sold between the beginning of April and end of June were affordable to... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 11:07 AM » Fed to raise rates this year, likely in Dec after election: Reuters poll
    Published Thu, Aug 11 2016 11:07 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates in December, after the Nov. 8 presidential election, according to a Reuters poll that also predicted a pickup in economic growth but with still relatively subdued inflation.
  • 11:07 AM » U.S. import prices unexpectedly rise in July
    Published Thu, Aug 11 2016 11:07 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON, Aug 11 (Reuters) - U.S. import prices unexpectedly rose in July as a drop in petroleum prices was offset by gains in the cost of other goods, but renewed dollar strength will likely dampen underlying inflation in the coming months.
  • 10:59 AM » MBA: "Delinquencies and Foreclosures Continue to Drop" in Q2
    Published Thu, Aug 11 2016 10:59 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the MBA: Second Quarter Delinquency Rate Lowest in Ten Years The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased 11 basis points to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.66 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the second quarter of 2016 . This was the lowest level since the second quarter of 2006. The delinquency rate was 64 basis points lower than one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the second quarter was 0.32 percent, a decrease of three basis points from the previous quarter, and down eight basis points from one year ago. This foreclosure starts rate was at its lowest level since the second quarter of 2000. The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the second quarter was 1.64 percent , down 10 basis points from the previous quarter and 45 basis points lower than one year ago. The foreclosure inventory rate was at its lowest level since the second quarter of 2007. The serious delinquency rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 3.11 percent , a decrease of 18 basis points from previous quarter, and a decrease of 84 basis points from last year. The serious delinquency rate was at its lowest level since the third quarter of 2007. Marina Walsh, MBA's Vice President of Industry Analysis, offered the following commentary on the survey: "Mortgage performance improved again in the second quarter primarily because of the combination of lower unemployment, strong job growth, and a continued nationwide housing market recovery. The mortgage delinquency rate tracks closely with the nation's improving unemployment rate. In the second quarter of 2016, the mortgage delinquency...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:59 AM » Prospective Buyers Still Struggle to Find Starter Homes
    Published Thu, Aug 11 2016 10:59 AM by www.builderonline.com
    First-time home buyers are returning to the market but with few options for starter homes.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.builderonline.com
  • 8:44 AM » Memory Lane: From 2005 just as Housing Inventory started to Increase
    Published Thu, Aug 11 2016 8:44 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    A quick trip down memory lane. Here are couple of posts from August 2005 when we were looking for the housing top. Inventory was the key - and inventory was just starting to increase. Sign, Sign, Everywhere a Sign The first photo - from August 2005 - shows four houses in a row for sale in my neighborhood (the signs were everywhere). And back when I wrote at Angry Bear: Signs of the Times The second photo - from the 2005 Angry Bear post - was from the O.C. Register showing three in a row. This graph is based on the June 2016 existing home sales report . Inventory really started to increase in the second half of 2005, and increased sharply in 2006. Inventory was the key in calling the top (the bubble was obvious, but the timing of the bust was a little more difficult). First came the increase in inventory and then prices peaked in early 2006. I still watch inventory closely!
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:38 AM » There's A Home Renovation Boom, But Good Luck Finding A Contractor
    Published Thu, Aug 11 2016 8:38 AM by www.npr.org
    With rising home prices and low interest rates, Americans are spending a record amount of money fixing up their kitchens, bathrooms and man-caves. But a lack of skilled workers is limiting the boom.
  • 8:38 AM » Brooklyn Apartment Rents Fell in July for the First Time in 2016
    Published Thu, Aug 11 2016 8:38 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Brooklyn Apartment Rents Fell in July for the First Time in 2016 Bloomberg An apartment-construction boom in Brooklyn is putting a cap on rents in the New York borough as a surge of new units erodes landlords' pricing power. The median monthly rent declined last month for the first time this year, dropping 0.8 percent from ... and more »
  • 8:35 AM » Reverse mortgages might not be a bad move for many retirees
    Published Thu, Aug 11 2016 8:35 AM by CNBC
    Reverse mortgages can provide retirees with much-needed guaranteed income but they might not be a good fit for everyone.
  • Wed, Aug 10 2016
  • 4:48 PM » Could Millennial Homeownership Be on the Rise?
    Published Wed, Aug 10 2016 4:48 PM by www.realtor.com
    Lately, the news is fewer millennials are buying homes. But more older millennials own homes compared with the same group of individuals before the housing crisis. The post Could Millennial Homeownership Be on the Rise? appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 3:10 PM » There Are All Kinds of Signs of a High-End Real Estate Slowdown
    Published Wed, Aug 10 2016 3:10 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg There Are All Kinds of Signs of a High-End Real Estate Slowdown Bloomberg According to real-estate website StreetEasy, 12 of the condos in Manhattan currently listed at over $20 million have had their prices cut by 5 percent or more in recent months, while only 2 of them have seen any increase in their listing price. Among ...
  • 3:09 PM » Real-Estate Agents Who Use Photos on Business Cards: Smart or Silly?
    Published Wed, Aug 10 2016 3:09 PM by www.realtor.com
    Brokers frequently include a headshot in their marketing materials, but this strategy has its pitfalls. The post Real-Estate Agents Who Use Photos on Business Cards: Smart or Silly? appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 1:31 PM » Americans' Assessment of U.S. Job Market Slightly Worse
    Published Wed, Aug 10 2016 1:31 PM by www.gallup.com
    About four in 10 Americans (39%) in August say it is a good time to find a quality job, down slightly from 43% in July.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.gallup.com
  • 12:33 PM » Ben Bernanke explains why Fed's not going to be raising rates for a while
    Published Wed, Aug 10 2016 12:33 PM by CNBC
    Chastened over their forecasting errors, Federal Reserve officials will be less likely to tip their hands.
  • 12:30 PM » The Bank of England Just Learned a Lot About Bond Market Liquidity
    Published Wed, Aug 10 2016 12:30 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg The Bank of England Just Learned a Lot About Bond Market Liquidity Bloomberg You can't always get what you want. On Tuesday, the Bank of England didn't manage to buy all the gilts it wanted at a reverse auction - the first such shortfall since it began its bond-buying program back in 2009. The 'uncovered auction' happened as ... and more »
  • 11:01 AM » BLS: Job Openings "little changed" in June
    Published Wed, Aug 10 2016 11:01 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 5.6 million on the last business day of June , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.> ... ... The number of quits held steady in June at 2.9 million. The quits rate was 2.0 percent. Over the month, the number of quits was little changed for total private and increased for government (+18,000). The number of quits increased in state and local government education (+20,000) and was little changed in all other industries. emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for June, the most recent employment report was for July. Click on graph for larger image. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Jobs openings increased in June to 5.624 million from 5.514 million in May. The number of job openings (yellow) are up 9% year-over-year. Quits are up 6% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits"). This is solid report with job openings just a little below the record high set in April 2016.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:00 AM » Home-Price Gains Unfettered in Most Metro Areas during Second Quarter
    Published Wed, Aug 10 2016 11:00 AM by Google News
    WASHINGTON (August 10, 2016) — Home prices maintained their robust, upward trajectory in a vast majority of metro areas during the second quarter, causing affordability to slightly decline despite mortgage rates hovering at lows not seen in over three years, according to the latest quarterly report by the National Association of Realtors®. The report also revealed that for the first time ever, a metro area – San Jose, California – had a median single-family home price above $1 million. ... Read More
  • 11:00 AM » Bank of England's offer to buy bonds Wednesday met with strong demand
    Published Wed, Aug 10 2016 11:00 AM by Market Watch
    The Bank of England said Wednesday it's offer to purchase U.K. government debt was met with strong demand, and that it reached its target of purchasing £1.17 billion ($1.53 billion) in bonds. The central bank purchased bonds with maturities of seven years to 15 years on Wednesday. The bank on Tuesday was only able to buy £1.12 billion in longer-dated bonds, or gilts, with analysts saying institutions such as pension funds and insurers were reluctant to sell such bonds because they need income to fulfill long-term liabilities. The yield on the 10-year gilt pared an earlier decline, and was down 1 basis point at 0.55%.
  • 9:33 AM » Watch Your Coastal Property. Here Comes the Sea
    Published Wed, Aug 10 2016 9:33 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Watch Your Coastal Property. Here Comes the Sea Bloomberg Climate scientists have long warned of a rise in sea level as global warming melts the world's glaciers. But while the level has been increasing at about 3.5 millimeters a year, the rate of increase itself has fluctuated, leading some people to doubt ... and more »
  • 9:33 AM » In recovering housing market, the starter home remains elusive
    Published Wed, Aug 10 2016 9:33 AM by Reuters
    NEW YORK/LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Seeking a yard for her two dogs and proximity to her new government job, Alison Owen set out to buy a home this spring in the hot market of Austin, Texas.
  • 9:32 AM » Homeowners Have Real Estate Agents Over a Barrel
    Published Wed, Aug 10 2016 9:32 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Homeowners Have Real Estate Agents Over a Barrel Bloomberg You just sold your home for $400,000. Good going, nice job, congratulations. Kudos are also due to the real estate agents who helped you close the deal. If you live in a part of the country where the standard commission is 6 percent, you probably just ... and more »
  • 9:24 AM » "Scariest jobs chart ever"
    Published Wed, Aug 10 2016 9:24 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Wednesday: • At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index . • At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for June from the BLS. Jobs openings decreased in May to 5.500 million from 5.845 million in April. The number of job openings were up 2% year-over-year, and Quits were up 5% year-over-year. During and following the 2007 recession, every month I posted a graph showing the percent jobs lost during the recession compared to previous post-WWII recessions. Some people started calling this the "scariest jobs chart ever".  In 2009 it was pretty scary! I retired the graph in May 2014 when employment finally exceeded the pre-recession peak. I keep getting asked if I could post an update to the graph, and here it is through the July 2016 report. This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms, compared to previous post WWII recessions.  Since exceeding the pre-recession peak in May 2014, employment is now 4.3% above the previous peak. Note: I ended the lines for most previous recessions when employment reached a new peak, although I continued the 2001 recession too on this graph.  The downturn at the end of the 2001 recession is the beginning of the 2007 recession.  I don't expect a downturn for employment any time soon (unlike in 2007 when I was forecasting a recession).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:24 AM » Negative Yields Have Turned Bond Trading Into a Commodity Market
    Published Wed, Aug 10 2016 9:24 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Negative Yields Have Turned Bond Trading Into a Commodity Market Bloomberg Negative yields have so contorted the global bond market that it's starting to look like a trading venue for commodities, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s asset-management division. The pile of debt yielding less-than zero is expanding as central ...
  • Tue, Aug 9 2016
  • 3:57 PM » Silicon Valley real estate shows who's winning in tech right now
    Published Tue, Aug 09 2016 3:57 PM by CNBC
    Despite a slowdown in tech startup funding and a hammering of public tech stocks earlier this year, Bay Area commercial real estate is as hot as ever.
  • 3:57 PM » Fed to host conference on financial innovation
    Published Tue, Aug 09 2016 3:57 PM by www.cfpbmonitor.com
    Barbara S. Mishkin While the CFPB has indicated it will be monitoring FinTech innovations, it has not yet held a public event devoted to FinTech or financial innovation. Both the FTC and OCC have already held such events this year and now the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors has announced that it will be hosting a research and... More >
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.cfpbmonitor.com
  • 3:56 PM » BOE Can't Find Enough Sellers as QE Operation Falls Short
    Published Tue, Aug 09 2016 3:56 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg BOE Can't Find Enough Sellers as QE Operation Falls Short Bloomberg U.K. government bonds surged as the second day of purchases of the Bank of England's expanded quantitative-easing program saw it fail to buy enough gilts to reach its stated goal. The yield on 10- and 30-year bonds fell to records as the central bank ... and more »
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