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  • Wed, Jan 9 2019
  • 1:26 PM » No Bank Failures in 2018; First Time since 2006
    Published Wed, Jan 09 2019 1:26 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    In 2018, no FDIC insured banks failed. This was down from 8 in 2017. This is only the third time since the FDIC was founded in 1933 that there were no bank failures in a calendar year. The great recession / housing bust / financial crisis related failures are behind us. The first graph shows the number of bank failures per year since the FDIC was founded in 1933. Click on graph for larger image. Typically about 7 banks fail per year. This was the first year with no failures since 2006. Note: There were a large number of failures in the '80s and early '90s. Many of these failures were related to loose lending, especially for commercial real estate.  Also, a large number of the failures in the '80s and '90s were in Texas with loose regulation. Even though there were more failures in the '80s and early '90s then during the recent crisis, the recent financial crisis was much worse (larger banks failed and were bailed out). The second graph includes pre-FDIC failures. In a typical year - before the Depression - 500 banks would fail and the depositors would lose a large portion of their savings. Then, during the Depression, thousands of banks failed. Note that the S&L crisis and recent financial crisis look small on this graph.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:26 PM » Lennar sales miss estimates as housing demand slows
    Published Wed, Jan 09 2019 1:26 PM by Reuters
    Lennar Corp reported lower-than-expected quarterly home sales and orders on Wednesday, confirming fears that the U.S. housing market is slowing in the face of higher interest rates and rising prices after years of robust growth.
  • 1:25 PM » 'I may go homeless,' said a worker impacted by the government shutdown
    Published Wed, Jan 09 2019 1:25 PM by CNBC
    The stalemate in Washington, one of the longest in history, is throwing a wrench into some people's plans to buy houses, according to real estate experts. So far, nearly 40,000 mortgages could be caught up in the shutdown, according to online real estate firm Zillow.
  • 1:25 PM » 'Danger signals' in bonds foreshadow a recession by mid-2020
    Published Wed, Jan 09 2019 1:25 PM by CNBC
    The market is "yanking the Fed's chain" by telling central bankers to stop increasing short-term rates, says macroeconomic forecaster Komal Sri-Kumar.
  • 11:20 AM » Fed's Bullard takes stand against more interest rate hikes
    Published Wed, Jan 09 2019 11:20 AM by CNBC
    St. Louis Fed President James Bullard thinks interest rates have gone high enough and could endanger an otherwise strong economy if they rise more.
  • 11:00 AM » Weakest Treasuries Demand Since 2008 Sends Bond-Market Warning\
    Published Wed, Jan 09 2019 11:00 AM by Bloomberg
    Weakest Treasuries Demand Since 2008 Sends Bond-Market Warning    Bloomberg As the U.S. government kicks off its debt sales this year, here's one potentially worrisome sign for traders to keep in mind: the steep decline in demand at its bond ...
  • 10:43 AM » Bostic: Fed should let economy run for 'a while' before further rate action
    Published Wed, Jan 09 2019 10:43 AM by Reuters
    With uncertainty around trade policy and businesses skittish about the future, the Fed should let the economy "run for a while" before any further policy action, Atlanta Federal Reserve bank president Raphael Bostic said on Wednesday.
  • 9:21 AM » One of the largest homebuilders said it can't give a forecast because the market is so 'uncertain'
    Published Wed, Jan 09 2019 9:21 AM by CNBC
    Lennar reported strong fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday, but deferred guidance for 2019 "until the markets further define themselves."
  • 9:02 AM » Bostic: Fed needs to be patient, seek 'greater clarity' on economic risks
    Published Wed, Jan 09 2019 9:02 AM by Reuters
    Firms are growing cautious and hesitant to invest, a likely drag on growth in 2019 that should leave the Fed patient about further rate increases until there is "greater clarity" about the direction of the economy, Atlanta Federal Reserve bank president Raphael Bostic said on Wednesday.
  • 8:30 AM » How Wage Growth Could Continue as the Economy Slows
    Published Wed, Jan 09 2019 8:30 AM by Bloomberg
    How Wage Growth Could Continue as the Economy Slows    Bloomberg The biggest gains are going to less educated workers, because there are fewer of them with each passing year.
  • 8:05 AM » Mizuho Sees ECB Rate Hike at End of 2019
    Published Wed, Jan 09 2019 8:05 AM by Bloomberg
    Mizuho Sees ECB Rate Hike at End of 2019    Bloomberg Peter Chatwell, head of European rates strategy at Mizuho, discusses the outlook for Treasuries, Federal Reserve and European Central Bank policy and ...
  • Tue, Jan 8 2019
  • 4:09 PM » The Chinese middle class is buying up American residential real estate
    Published Tue, Jan 08 2019 4:09 PM by CNBC
    Chinese consumers have been the top foreign buyers in both units and dollar volume of residential housing for six years straight, according to the National Association of Realtors, and now they expanding to new, lower price tiers.
  • 3:31 PM » Seattle Area Real Estate in December: Sales Down 20% YoY, Inventory up 169% YoY
    Published Tue, Jan 08 2019 3:31 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported Attentive home buyers can find "good values and receptive sellers" December brought few surprises for real estate brokers in Western Washington with holidays, fluctuating interest rates, and volatility in consumer confidence contributing to slower activity. Several leaders from Northwest Multiple Listing Service described 2018 as a transition year for residential real estate. New data from the MLS show inventory in its 23-county market area dipped below two months of supply for the first time since July. A year-over-year comparison of the number of new listings, pending sales, and closed sales show drops overall, while prices rose from the same month a year ago. Member-brokers added 3,631 new listings of single family homes and condominiums during December (10.4 percent fewer than a year ago), boosting total active listings to 12,275, up from the year-ago volume of 8,553 . Pending sales were down about 8.4 percent from twelve months ago (5,677 versus 6,198), and the volume of closed sales dropped nearly 16.6 percent (6,374 versus 7,642). For 2018, members of Northwest MLS reported completing 92,555 transactions, which compares with 99,345 closed sales during 2017 for a drop of about 6.8 percent. The median price on last year's closed sales of single family homes and condominiums combined was $402,000, up $32,000 (8.64 percent) from 2017. ... The 12,275 active listings in the MLS database at year end was down from November when inventory totaled 15,830 properties, and down from 2018's peak of 19,526 listings at the end of September. Measured another way, there was 1.93 months of supply at the end of December, with four-to-six months typically considered to be a balanced market. A year ago there was only 1.12 months of supply. On a percentage basis, year-over-year inventory has climbed each month since May. emphasis added The press release is for the Northwest. In King County, sales were down 19.5% year...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:36 PM » Las Vegas Real Estate in December: Sales Down 17% YoY, Inventory up 82% YoY
    Published Tue, Jan 08 2019 1:36 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    This is a key former distressed market to follow since Las Vegas saw the largest price decline, following the housing bubble, of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities. The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported Southern Nevada housing market slowed down in December, GLVAR housing statistics for December 2018 The recent cooling trend continued through December for the local housing market, with stable home prices, fewer properties changing hands and more homes on the market than one year ago. So says a report released Tuesday by the Greater Las Vegas Association of REALTORS® (GLVAR). ... The total number of existing local homes, condos and townhomes sold during December was 2,658 . Compared to one year ago, December sales were down 18.2 percent for homes and down 11.8 percent for condos and townhomes. GLVAR reported a total of 42,876 property sales in 2018, down from 45,388 in all of 2017. ... While the number of local homes available for sale is still below what would normally be considered a balanced market, Southern Nevada now has more than a three-month housing supply. By the end of December, GLVAR reported 6,615 single-family homes listed for sale without any sort of offer. That's up 72.9 percent from one year ago . For condos and townhomes, the 1,528 properties listed without offers in December represented a 132.9 percent jump from one year ago . ... The number of so-called distressed sales continues to drop each year. GLVAR reported that short sales and foreclosures combined accounted for just 2.9 percent of all existing local property sales in December, compared to 3.6 percent of all sales one year ago and 11 percent two years ago. emphasis added 1) Overall sales were down 17.0% year-over-year from 3,204 in December 2017 to 2,658 in December 2018. 2) Active inventory (single-family and condos) is up sharply from a year ago, from a total of 4,483 in December 2017 to 8,143 in December 2018. Note: Total inventory was up 81.6% year...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:02 PM » CFPB Finalizes Off-Balanced Approach to Public Disclosure of HMDA Data
    Published Tue, Jan 08 2019 12:02 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    As previously reported, in September 2017 the CFPB proposed policy guidance regarding what application-level Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data would be disclosed to the public based on the significant expansion to the HMDA data reporting items that the CFPB adopted in October 2015. Calendar year 2018 was the first year that reporting institutions collected... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 11:33 AM » Pending Home Sales Fall in November
    Published Tue, Jan 08 2019 11:33 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    Pending home sales declined slightly in November on an annualized basis for the eleventh straight month. The Pending Home Sales Index decreased by 0.7% from 102.1 in October to 101.4 in November, and was 7.7% below the level one year ago. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts reported by the National Association... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 10:49 AM » Job openings on the decline but still outpace available workers by more than 800,000
    Published Tue, Jan 08 2019 10:49 AM by CNBC
    Job openings edged lower in November but there were still 800,000 more vacancies than there were workers to fill them.
  • 10:30 AM » 10-Year Yields Will End Year at Around 3.1%, SocGen Says
    Published Tue, Jan 08 2019 10:30 AM by Bloomberg
    10-Year Yields Will End Year at Around 3.1%, SocGen Says    Bloomberg Kit Juckes, global chief fixed income strategist at Societe Generale, discusses the U.S. economy, Treasuries and the dollar. He also discusses the Turkish ...
  • 9:46 AM » Amid the government shutdown, banks and credit unions are offering low-interest rate loans
    Published Tue, Jan 08 2019 9:46 AM by CNBC
    Amid the stalemate in Washington, credit unions and banks across the country have some of the more generous offers for government employees.
  • 8:54 AM » NAHB 2019 "Priced Out" Estimates
    Published Tue, Jan 08 2019 8:54 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    NAHB recently updated its priced out estimates for 2019. The new estimates show that, if the median U.S. new home price goes up by $1,000, 127,560 households would be priced out of the housing market nationwide. In other words, based on their incomes, 127,560 households would be able to qualify for a mortgage to purchase the home before the price... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 8:54 AM » Good companies often make bad investments, study shows
    Published Tue, Jan 08 2019 8:54 AM by CNBC
    A new study found that a good reputation, strong competitive advantage and popular brands may be a sign of a poor investment idea.
  • 8:53 AM » Netflix, Amazon are among the biggest winners in the monster comeback from the Christmas Eve low
    Published Tue, Jan 08 2019 8:53 AM by CNBC
    Stocks have bounced off the Christmas Eve lows and many of the worst performers are the stars of the two-week period since then, including General Electric, Netflix and many energy names.
  • 8:52 AM » Fintech start-up Plaid to buy competitor Quovo for $200 million in its first major deal
    Published Tue, Jan 08 2019 8:52 AM by CNBC
    Fintech start-up Plaid is buying competing data company Quovo for $200 million.
  • 8:52 AM » Toyota pushes hybrids despite slowing gas-electric auto sales
    Published Tue, Jan 08 2019 8:52 AM by CNBC
    Toyota's emphasis of hybrids comes at a time when U.S. demand for the traditional gas-electric vehicle is dropping. LMC Automotive estimates full hybrid sales in the U.S. fell 6 percent last year, while Toyota's hybrid sales dropped 5 percent.
  • 8:52 AM » Apple's China warning is likely 'canary in the coal mine:' Stephen Roach
    Published Tue, Jan 08 2019 8:52 AM by CNBC
    Yale University's Stephen Roach sees the U.S.-China trade war fallout hurting earnings season.
  • 8:51 AM » Delay Brexit? Ireland would not stand in the way
    Published Tue, Jan 08 2019 8:51 AM by Reuters
    Ireland said on Tuesday it would not block a possible request to delay Brexit after a newspaper reported that British and European officials had discussed the possibility of extending the formal divorce process from the bloc.
  • 8:51 AM » Afghan Taliban call off peace talks with U.S. over 'agenda differences'
    Published Tue, Jan 08 2019 8:51 AM by Reuters
    The Afghan Taliban said on Tuesday they had called off peace talks with U.S. officials in Qatar this week due to an "agenda disagreement", especially over the involvement of Afghan officials as well as a possible ceasefire and prisoner exchange.
  • 8:51 AM » Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: JWN, PPG, UNP & more
    Published Tue, Jan 08 2019 8:51 AM by CNBC
    These are the stocks posting the largest moves before the bell.
  • 8:08 AM » The Fed Is Ignoring the Biggest Lesson of 2008
    Published Tue, Jan 08 2019 8:08 AM by Bloomberg
    The Fed Is Ignoring the Biggest Lesson of 2008    Bloomberg The 2008 financial crisis showed what happens when the banking system lacks an adequate foundation of loss-absorbing equity capital. Unable to raise what ...
  • 8:07 AM » BlackRock Says Treasuries Back as Havens, Yield Surge Over
    Published Tue, Jan 08 2019 8:07 AM by Bloomberg
    BlackRock Says Treasuries Back as Havens, Yield Surge Over    Bloomberg Treasuries have regained their haven status, drawing an end to a surge that drove yields to a seven-year high last year, according to BlackRock Inc.
  • Mon, Jan 7 2019
  • 4:56 PM » Experts weigh in on what the 2019 housing market will bring
    Published Mon, Jan 07 2019 4:56 PM by Washington Post
    A year ago, several experts predicted the new tax law would cause a slowdown in the housing market. So far, the limitations on mortgage-interest and property-tax deductions haven't had a negative impact. Instead, rising mortgage rates and home prices are doing more to put a damper on the market.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Washington Post
  • 3:23 PM » Fed's Bostic sees one interest rate increase for 2019
    Published Mon, Jan 07 2019 3:23 PM by CNBC
    The Federal Reserve may only need to raise interest rates once in 2019, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday, focusing on business executives' nervousness about the economy and a global growth slowdown as factors that may hold the U.S. central bank back.
  • 3:20 PM » Here's how home buyers could save some money amid rising interest rates
    Published Mon, Jan 07 2019 3:20 PM by CNBC
    How badly do you want that new house? Prospective home buyers are facing pressure in the form of high home prices and the prospect of rising mortgage rates. Enter points - a way for purchasers to reduce their monthly payments. What you should know.
  • 1:11 PM » Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down Year-over-year
    Published Mon, Jan 07 2019 1:11 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices.   Lumber prices declined from the record highs in early 2018, and are now down about 25% year-over-year. This graph shows two measures of lumber prices: 1) Framing Lumber from Random Lengths through December 14, 2018 ( via NAHB ), and 2) CME framing futures. Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery. Right now Random Lengths prices are down 22% from a year ago, and CME futures are  down 25% year-over-year. There is a seasonal pattern for lumber prices. Prices frequently peak around May, and bottom around October or November - although there is quite a bit of seasonal variability.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:11 PM » Yale's Shiller Says Fed's Powell Is 'Reasonable'
    Published Mon, Jan 07 2019 1:11 PM by Bloomberg
    Yale's Shiller Says Fed's Powell Is 'Reasonable'    Bloomberg Yale University Professor Robert Shiller discusses Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas." (Source: Bloomberg)
  • 10:17 AM » ISM non-manufacturing index hits 57.6 in December
    Published Mon, Jan 07 2019 10:17 AM by CNBC
    The U.S. services sector expanded at a slower-than-expected pace in December, according to data released Monday.
  • 9:12 AM » Consumer Confidence Drops in December
    Published Mon, Jan 07 2019 9:12 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    Following a modest decline in November, consumer confidence continued to decrease in December, driven mainly by weakened consumer expectations. The Consumer Confidence Index, reported by the Conference Board, fell by 6.1% from 136.4 to 128.1 in December, the lowest level since July 2018. Despite the sharp decline in December, the Consumer Confidence Index remained historically strong. The Present Situation Index... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 8:37 AM » The Fed and the PBOC Are No Longer Poles Apart
    Published Mon, Jan 07 2019 8:37 AM by Bloomberg
    The Fed and the PBOC Are No Longer Poles Apart    Bloomberg The world's two most important central banks are edging closer in their approach to monetary policy. That's a good thing for global stability.
  • 8:07 AM » US Treasury yields move lower as trade war talks continue
    Published Mon, Jan 07 2019 8:07 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices were higher on Monday morning, after robust jobs data and a dovish turn from the Federal Reserve helped to alleviate concerns of a possible economic slowdown.
  • 8:05 AM » U.S. Bond Yields Pull Off Lows as Fed Embarks on Listening Tour
    Published Mon, Jan 07 2019 8:05 AM by Bloomberg
    U.S. Bond Yields Pull Off Lows as Fed Embarks on Listening Tour    Bloomberg Strong data and soothing words pulled markets out of a tailspin Friday, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues have plenty of ...
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