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  • Mon, Nov 28 2016
  • 4:28 PM » Possible Policy Impacts on Housing
    Published Mon, Nov 28 2016 4:28 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    On Friday I posted a few 2017 housing forecasts . I'll add more forecasts soon. Some of these forecasts may be revised due to the Presidential results and also due to the possibility of higher mortgage rates. Here are some preliminary thoughts on several potential issues for housing over the next couple of years: 1) Higher interest rates due to policy changes (tax cuts and more spending).  Higher mortgage rates could slow housing activity.  However, if the tax cuts and more spending lead to more jobs, then that might offset any increase in mortgage rates. 2) Immigration.  If the next administration focuses on deportation, this could lead to less demand in certain areas.  This could lead to lower rents, fewer sales, more inventory, fewer housing starts, and possibly lower prices in those areas. 3) Financing.  Although most policy discussions have focused on deregulation, it is also possible that Fannie and Freddie will be privatized, and that some mortgage lending will dry up.   FHA loans might also become more expensive.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:34 PM » Bond Market Carnage: Are US Treasuries Oversold? - Bloomberg Video
    Published Mon, Nov 28 2016 3:34 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Bond Market Carnage: Are US Treasuries Oversold? Bloomberg Kathleen Gaffney, Eaton Vance Management vice president, discusses the outlook for the U.S. bond market with Bloomberg's Scarlet Fu on "Bloomberg Markets." (Source: Bloomberg). Most Recent Videos. Bond Market Carnage: Are U.S. Treasuries Oversold ...
  • 3:34 PM » Why Donald Trump is going to need Janet Yellen
    Published Mon, Nov 28 2016 3:34 PM by CNBC
    Trump told CNBC that Yellen should be "ashamed" of the way she has led policy. He may have to sing a different tune.
  • 2:04 PM » NYC Apartments Experiencing the ‘Fastest Market Adjustment Ever'
    Published Mon, Nov 28 2016 2:04 PM by www.realtor.com
    The overpriced Manhattan real-estate scene has left some homes lingering on the market for more than four years, prompting huge price cuts. The post NYC Apartments Experiencing the 'Fastest Market Adjustment Ever' appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 12:36 PM » CFPB's proposed disclosure rule represents unconstitutional prior restraint on speech
    Published Mon, Nov 28 2016 12:36 PM by www.cfpbmonitor.com
    Barbara S. Mishkin The CFPB's proposed amendments to its rule on the disclosure of records and information is the subject of a blog post written by Ballard Spahr attorneys Burt M. Rublin and Daniel L. Delnero for the Washington Legal Foundation. Entitled "CFPB Proposal Unconstitutionally Imposes Prior Restraint on Regulated Entities' Speech,” the blog post focuses on a... More >
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.cfpbmonitor.com
  • 11:13 AM » Dallas Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Continues to Expand" in November
    Published Mon, Nov 28 2016 11:13 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: All regional Fed surveys indicated expansion in November. This is the first time all regional surveys were positive in two years (the decline in oil prices hit some regions hard - like Dallas). From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Continues to Expand Texas factory activity increased again in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, posted a fifth consecutive positive reading and edged up to 8.8. ... ... The general business activity index shot up to 10.2 after nearly two years of negative readings. ... Labor market measures indicated increased employment levels and longer workweeks. The employment index came in at 4.5 after a near-zero reading last month. Seventeen percent of firms noted net hiring, compared with 13 percent noting net layoffs. The hours worked index returned to positive territory in November, coming in at 2.5. ... emphasis added This was the last of the regional Fed surveys for November. Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index: Click on graph for larger image. The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through November), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through November) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through October (right axis). It seems likely the ISM manufacturing index will show expansion again in November, and the consensus is for a reading of 52.3.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:13 AM » D.C. Circuit orders PHH to respond to CFPB's petition for rehearing en banc; invites response from Solicitor General
    Published Mon, Nov 28 2016 11:13 AM by www.cfpbmonitor.com
    Barbara S. Mishkin The D.C. Circuit has entered an order directing PHH Corporation to file a response to the CFPB’s petition for rehearing en banc in CFPB v. PHH Corporation. The order, filed November 23, 2016, requires PHH to file its response within 15 days. It also invites the Solicitor General to file a response to the petition... More >
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.cfpbmonitor.com
  • 11:13 AM » An interest rate hike won't be entirely painless, analyst Peter Boockvar says
    Published Mon, Nov 28 2016 11:13 AM by CNBC
    Raising interest rates could detrimentally affect U.S. debt, says Peter Bookcvar of The Lindsey Group.
  • 9:20 AM » Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.1% in September, Up 5.4% year-over-year
    Published Mon, Nov 28 2016 9:20 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). Note: Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted . From Black Knight: Black Knight Home Price Index Report: September 2016 Transactions, U.S. Home Prices Up 0.1 Percent for the Month; Up 5.4 Percent Year-Over-Year  • September's home price movement was relatively flat at the national level, with home prices ticking up just 0.1 percent from August • U.S. home prices are up 5.4 percent from last year and are now within just 0.6 percent of hitting a new national peak • Home prices in seven of the nation's 20 largest states and seven of the 40 largest metros hit new peaks The year-over-year increase in this index has been about the same for the last year. Note that house prices are close to the bubble peak in nominal terms, but not in real terms (adjusted for inflation).  Case-Shiller for September will be released tomorrow.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:33 AM » The 35-year old bull run has been a 'wonderful ride' for investors that's coming to a close
    Published Mon, Nov 28 2016 8:33 AM by CNBC
    Safe-haven bonds are hitting serious tailwids, Nuveen's Bob Doll explained to CNBC's "On the Money."
  • 8:32 AM » There's a Trumpnado in the bond market
    Published Mon, Nov 28 2016 8:32 AM by Market Watch
    Everyone suspected that stocks would be the asset most likely to take a hit in the wake of a Trump victory, but when that didn't happen, it became to time to shift our attention to bonds.
  • Fri, Nov 25 2016
  • 12:32 PM » Is this the 'Great Rotation'? Some banks think so
    Published Fri, Nov 25 2016 12:32 PM by CNBC
    The idea of a 'Great Rotation' out of bonds into stocks is again gaining traction.
  • 10:23 AM » Sri-Kumar Sees Long-End Yield Increase 'Overdone' - Bloomberg Video
    Published Fri, Nov 25 2016 10:23 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Komal Sri-Kumar Sees Long-End Yield Increase 'Overdone' Bloomberg Komal Sri-Kumar, president at Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, discusses the term premium in U.S. Treasuries and looks at how the Federal Reserve's rate path can impact the yield curve. He speaks on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas." (Source: Bloomberg) ...
  • 10:23 AM » First Look: 2017 Housing Forecasts
    Published Fri, Nov 25 2016 10:23 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year.  It looks like analysts are optimistic on New Home sales for 2017, although that might change with higher mortgage rates and policy changes .  I'll post updates as the forecasts change (and add more forecasts soon). First a review of the previous four years ... Here is a summary of forecasts for 2016 . In 2016, new home sales will probably be around 565 thousand, and total housing starts will be around 1.175 million.  Fannie Mae and Merrill Lynch were very close on New Home sales, and MetroStudy was close on starts. Here is a summary of forecasts for 2015 . In 2015, new home sales were 501 thousand, and total housing starts were 1.112 million.  Zillow, CoreLogic, and the MBA were right on with New Home sales, and CoreLogic, MetroStudy, MBA and Zillow were all correct on starts. Here is a summary of forecasts for 2014 . In 2014, new home sales were 437 thousand, and total housing starts were 1.003 million. No one was close on New Home sales (all way too optimistic), and Michelle Meyer (Merrill Lynch) and Fannie Mae were the closest on housing starts (about 10% too high). In 2014, many analysts underestimated the impact of higher mortgage rates and higher new home prices on new home sales and starts. Here is a summary of forecasts for 2013 . In 2013, new home sales were 429 thousand, and total housing starts were 925 thousand.  Barclays was the closest on New Home sales followed by David Crowe (NAHB).  Fannie Mae and the NAHB were the closest on housing starts. The table below shows a few forecasts for 2017: From Fannie Mae: Housing Forecast: November 2016 From NAHB: NAHB's housing and economic forecast From Wells Fargo: Monthly Economic Outlook From NAR: U.S. Economic Outlook: November 2016 Note: For comparison, new home sales in 2016 will probably be around 565 thousand, and total housing...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:17 AM » No Credit History? No Problem. Lenders Are Looking at Your Phone Data
    Published Fri, Nov 25 2016 8:17 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg No Credit History? No Problem. Lenders Are Looking at Your Phone Data Bloomberg Phone carriers and banks have gained confidence in using mobile data for lending after seeing startups show preliminary success with the method in the past few years. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg. Financial institutions, overcoming some ... and more »
  • 8:14 AM » Five Economic Reasons to be Thankful
    Published Fri, Nov 25 2016 8:14 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    With a Hat Tip to Neil Irwin (he started doing this a few years ago) ... here are five economic reasons to be thankful this Thanksgiving ... 1) Low unemployment claims. The number of new claims for unemployment insurance benefits is at the lowest level in 40 years (with a much smaller population back then).  The four week average of new unemployment has fallen to 251,000, down from 297,000 a year ago, and down from the peak of 660,000 during the great recession. Click on graph for larger image. Here is a graph of initial weekly unemployment claims. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 251,000. The low level of claims suggests relatively few layoffs. 2) Job Openings Near Record Levels. There were 5.5 million job openings in September. This is close to the record high of 5.8 million in April 2016. This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. Job openings (yellow) have been above 5 million for 20 consecutive months. Note that Quits are up 12% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits"). More job openings, and rising quits, are positive signs for the labor market. 3) Household Debt burdens are near record lows. Household debt burdens have declined sharply over the last several years. The Household debt service ratio was at 13.2% in 2007, and has fallen to under 10% now. The graph, based on data from the Federal Reserve, shows the Total Debt Service Ratio (DSR), and the DSR for mortgages (blue) and consumer debt (yellow). The overall Debt Service Ratio increased slightly in Q2 2016, and has been moving sideways and is near a record low.  Note: The financial obligation ratio (FOR) was unchanged in Q2 and is also near a record low (not shown). The DSR for mortgages ...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • Wed, Nov 23 2016
  • 3:54 PM » Fed policymakers confident of need for rate hikes on eve of Trump win
    Published Wed, Nov 23 2016 3:54 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve policymakers appeared confident on the eve of the U.S. presidential election that the economy was strengthening enough to warrant interest rate increases soon, minutes from the Fed's Nov. 1-2 meeting showed.
  • 3:52 PM » FOMC Minutes: "Appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate relatively soon"
    Published Wed, Nov 23 2016 3:52 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    There are still different views, but most participants think it will be appropriate to raise the Fed Funds rate "relatively soon". (probably means December) From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, November 1-2, 2016 . Excerpts: Most participants expressed a view that it could well become appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate relatively soon , so long as incoming data provided some further evidence of continued progress toward the Committee's objectives. Some participants noted that recent Committee communications were consistent with an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate in the near term or argued that to preserve credibility, such an increase should occur at the next meeting. A few participants advocated an increase at this meeting; they viewed recent economic developments as indicating that labor market conditions were at or close to those consistent with maximum employment and expected that recent progress toward the Committee's inflation objective would continue, even with further gradual steps to remove monetary policy accommodation. In addition, many judged that risks to economic and financial stability could increase over time if the labor market overheated appreciably , or expressed concern that an extended period of low interest rates risked intensifying incentives for investors to reach for yield, potentially leading to a mispricing of risk and misallocation of capital. In contrast, some others judged that allowing the unemployment rate to fall below its longer-run normal level for a time could result in favorable supply-side effects or help hasten the return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent objective; noted that proximity of the federal funds rate to the effective lower bound places potential constraints on monetary policy; or stressed that global developments could pose risks to U.S. economic activity. More generally, it was emphasized that decisions regarding...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:49 PM » The 20 Hottest U.S. Real Estate Markets for November 2016
    Published Wed, Nov 23 2016 3:49 PM by www.realtor.com
    November's data show that it was another month of record-low levels of housing supply, strong demand, and (not coincidentally) record-high prices. The post The 20 Hottest U.S. Real Estate Markets for November 2016 appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 1:50 PM » It's time for investors to open their eyes to the trouble in bond ETFs
    Published Wed, Nov 23 2016 1:50 PM by Market Watch
    Legendary Ohio State football coach Woody Hayes was a fan of the run game and felt that the passing game had more risks than were worth the reward, which may be the case for bond ETF investors here.
  • 1:50 PM » 5 Home Projects Under $1,000 That Will Save You Money On Bills This Winter
    Published Wed, Nov 23 2016 1:50 PM by www.redfin.com
    Here's how to save money on energy this winter without freezing your tush off. The post 5 Home Projects Under $1,000 That Will Save You Money On Bills This Winter appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 1:49 PM » A few Comments on October New Home Sales
    Published Wed, Nov 23 2016 1:49 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    New home sales for October were reported below the consensus forecast at 563,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). And the previous months were revised down. However, sales were up 17.8% year-over-year in October, and this is the best month for October (NSA) since 2007. And sales are up 12.7% year-to-date compared to the same period in 2015. The glass is more than half full.  This is very solid year-over-year growth and just suggests that expectations were ahead of reality. This is why we look at the trend and not just one month. Note that these sales (for October) were before the recent increase in mortgage rates. Earlier: New Home Sales at 563,000 Annual Rate in October . Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows new home sales for 2015 and 2016 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).  Sales to date are up 12.7% year-over-year, because of very strong year-over-year growth over the last seven months. Overall   I expected lower growth this year , in the 4% to 8% range.  Slower growth seemed likely this year because  Houston (and other oil producing areas) will have a problem this year .   It looks like I was too pessimistic on new home sales this year. And here is another update to the "distressing gap" graph that I first started posting a number of years ago to show the emerging gap caused by distressed sales.  Now I'm looking for the gap to close over the next several years. The "distressing gap" graph shows existing home sales (left axis) and new home sales (right axis) through October 2016. This graph starts in 1994, but the relationship had been fairly steady back to the '60s. Following the housing bubble and bust, the "distressing gap" appeared mostly because of distressed sales. I expect existing home sales to move more sideways, and I expect this gap to slowly close, mostly from an increase in new home sales. However...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:49 PM » Mortgages limits for Fannie, Freddie to increase for the first time in a decade
    Published Wed, Nov 23 2016 1:49 PM by CNBC
    The Federal Housing Finance Agency raised the maximum limit on mortgages Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can acquire in 2017.
  • 11:21 AM » FHFA Announces Increase in Maximum Conforming Loan Limits for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2017
    Published Wed, Nov 23 2016 11:21 AM by FHFA
    Washington, D.C. - The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) today announced that the maximum conforming loan limits for mortgages acquired by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2017 will increase. In most of the country, the 2017 maximum loan limit for one-unit properties will be $424,100, an increase from $417,000. This will be the first increase in the baseline loan limit since 2006. In higher-cost areas, higher loan limits will be in effect.
  • 10:37 AM » Mortgage Rates Move Higher Headed into Holiday Weekend
    Published Wed, Nov 23 2016 10:37 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Mortgage Rates Move Higher Headed into Holiday Weekend
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 10:37 AM » Consumer sentiment index hits 93.8 in November vs 91.6 estimate
    Published Wed, Nov 23 2016 10:37 AM by CNBC
    Consumer sentiment index hits 93.8 in November vs 91.6 estimate || 104125907
  • 8:50 AM » U.S. durable goods orders rebound, shipments rising
    Published Wed, Nov 23 2016 8:50 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - - New orders for U.S. manufactured capital goods rebounded in October, driven by rising demand for machinery and a range of other equipment, the
  • 8:50 AM » Jobless claims rebound from 43-year low, labor market still firming
    Published Wed, Nov 23 2016 8:50 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose from a 43-year low last week, but remained below a level that is consistent with a
  • 8:49 AM » Ben Carson offered HUD post, will consider it: Carson spokesman
    Published Wed, Nov 23 2016 8:49 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has offered the post of secretary of housing and urban development to former presidential candidate Ben Carson, who will consider it over the Thanksgiving holiday, a Carson spokesman said on Tuesday.
  • Tue, Nov 22 2016
  • 3:03 PM » The salary you need to afford rent in the 15 largest U.S. cities
    Published Tue, Nov 22 2016 3:03 PM by CNBC
    SmartAsset determines how much you need to earn to live in the largest metro areas.
  • 2:53 PM » Ending CFPB's 'Spanish Inquisition' of banks will boost mortgage market, expert says
    Published Tue, Nov 22 2016 2:53 PM by CNBC
    But the rosy expectations may need to be tempered, said Chris Whalen, head of research at Kroll Bond Rating Agency.
  • 12:50 PM » Home Prices Dip as Buyers and Sellers Head Into the Holidays
    Published Tue, Nov 22 2016 12:50 PM by www.realtor.com
    Median home prices dipped 1.3% in October from a month ago, but were still up 6% annually, according to a recent National Association of Realtors® report. The post Home Prices Dip as Buyers and Sellers Head Into the Holidays appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 12:49 PM » Trump says ex-rival Carson may lead U.S. housing department
    Published Tue, Nov 22 2016 12:49 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said on Tuesday he is "seriously considering" former Republican rival Ben Carson to lead the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, which oversees home mortgage lending and other housing programs.
  • 11:09 AM » Investors Have Hit the Pause Button on a Number of 'Trump Trades'
    Published Tue, Nov 22 2016 11:09 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Investors Have Hit the Pause Button on a Number of 'Trump Trades' Bloomberg A worker sweeps the steps of the Trump International Hotel, formerly the Old Post Office Pavilion, in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 16, 2016. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg. After massive moves across a plethora of asset classes, positions linked ... and more »
  • 9:55 AM » US stocks open higher, set new all-time highs
    Published Tue, Nov 22 2016 9:55 AM by CNBC
    U.S. equities opened higher on Tuesday, hitting new all-time highs, as investors awaited housing data and kept an eye on Donald Trump's policy agenda.
  • 9:55 AM » New Multifamily Construction Dominated by Rental Production
    Published Tue, Nov 22 2016 9:55 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    An elevated market share for new rental multifamily homes is holding typical apartment size below levels seen during the pre-recession period. However, as multifamily developers build more for-sale housing units in the years ahead, the average size of multifamily homes is likely to rise. The recent pattern of change in the size of new multifamily units stands in contrast to the post-recession increase in the size... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 8:16 AM » Fed Hike Is Certainty for Bond Traders as Market Odds Reach 100%
    Published Tue, Nov 22 2016 8:16 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Fed Hike Is Certainty for Bond Traders as Market Odds Reach 100% Bloomberg A Federal Reserve interest-rate increase next month is as certain as death and taxes for bond traders, as speculation mounts that Donald Trump's reflationary policies will mean a quicker pace of monetary tightening. The market-implied odds of action at ... and more »
  • Mon, Nov 21 2016
  • 6:13 PM » CFPB posts 2017 final lists of rural and rural or underserved counties
    Published Mon, Nov 21 2016 6:13 PM by www.cfpbmonitor.com
    Richard J. Andreano, Jr. The CFPB has posted its 2017 final lists of Rural and Rural or Underserved Counties on its website. The CFPB has previously posted lists of such counties for calendar years 2011-2016. The lists are relevant to exemptions in several CFPB mortgage rules, including the CFPB's rule requiring creditors to establish escrow accounts for certain first-lien... More >
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.cfpbmonitor.com
  • 6:13 PM » Ally Financial settles mortgage securities probe for $52 million
    Published Mon, Nov 21 2016 6:13 PM by Market Watch
    Ally Financial Inc. said late Monday it has settled a federal probe into its residential mortgage-backed securities business for $52 million. Ally said the settlement resolves "all outstanding investigations and potential claims" by the Department of Justice into Ally's former mortgage unit Residential Capital LLC. The company said it reserved the full amount for the settlement in the third quarter. Ally shares were unchanged at $19.47 after hours.
  • 3:55 PM » ECB's Draghi says consequences of Trump's win hard to assess
    Published Mon, Nov 21 2016 3:55 PM by Reuters
    FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The European Central Bank's President Mario Draghi said on Monday that one should look beyond a "muted" market reaction to Donald Trump's U.S. election win, which will have long-term consequences that are difficult to predict.
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Mortgage Rates:
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