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  • Wed, Jun 20 2018
  • 8:10 AM » US Growth Is 'Close to a Peak', But Risks Are Mounting
    Published Wed, Jun 20 2018 8:10 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg US Growth Is 'Close to a Peak', But Risks Are Mounting Bloomberg The U.S. economy is booming this quarter as tax cuts power consumers and businesses. Yet risks are mounting that the high will be short-lived. The housing market is struggling to build on its progress thanks to supply constraints and soaring property ... and more »
  • Tue, Jun 19 2018
  • 2:35 PM » Bond Traders Get Ready for Yield-Curve Inversion as Soon as Next Week
    Published Tue, Jun 19 2018 2:35 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Bond Traders Get Ready for Yield-Curve Inversion as Soon as Next Week Bloomberg The first step in the inversion of the U.S. Treasury curve may be poised to occur as soon as next week. The spread between 7- and 10-year yields held just below 4 basis points Tuesday, after shrinking to 2 basis points last month, the smallest gap ...
  • 2:35 PM » Existing Home Sales: Take the Under for May
    Published Tue, Jun 19 2018 2:35 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Housing economist Tom Lawler has been sending me his predictions of what the NAR will report for 8+ years.  The table below shows the consensus for each month, Lawler's predictions, and the NAR's initially reported level of sales.  Lawler hasn't always been closer than the consensus, but usually when there has been a fairly large spread between Lawler's estimate and the "consensus", Lawler has been closer. As an example, last month, for April 2018, the consensus was for sales of 5.60 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Lawler estimated 5.48 million, and the NAR reported 5.46 million (the consensus missed by 140 thousand compared to 20 thousand for Lawler). NOTE: There have been times when Lawler "missed", but then he pointed out an apparent error in the NAR data - and the subsequent revision corrected that error.  As an example, see: The "Curious Case" of Existing Home Sales in the South in April For May 2018, the consensus is that the NAR will report sales of 5.56 million  SAAR. However,  housing economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales of 5.47 million. Lawler's estimate is a little below the consensus, so I'd take the under for May. Note: The NAR is scheduled to report May Existing Home Sales tomorrow Wednesday, June 20th at 10:00 AM ET. Over the last eight years, the consensus average miss was 147 thousand, and  Lawler's average miss was 69 thousand. Existing Home Sales, Forecasts and NAR Report millions, seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) Month Consensus Lawler NAR reported 1 May-10 6.20 5.83 5.66 Jun-10 5.30 5.30 5.37 Jul-10 4.66 3.95 3.83 Aug-10 4.10 4.10 4.13 Sep-10 4.30 4.50 4.53 Oct-10 4.50 4.46 4.43 Nov-10 4.85 4.61 4.68 Dec-10 4.90 5.13 5.28 Jan-11 5.20 5.17 5.36 Feb-11 5.15 5.00 4.88 Mar-11 5.00 5.08 5.10 Apr-11 5.20 5.15 5.05 May-11 4.75 4.80 4.81 Jun-11 4.90 4.71 4.77 Jul-11 4.92 4.69 4.67 Aug-11...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:08 PM » Trade Tensions Escalate, Draghi Patience, Jobs Puzzle
    Published Tue, Jun 19 2018 1:08 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Trade Tensions Escalate, Draghi Patience, Jobs Puzzle: Eco Day Bloomberg Welcome to Tuesday, Americas. Here's news from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started: Trade tensions between the world's two biggest economies are intensifying, with China vowing to retaliate "forcefully" against President Trump's threatened ... and more »
  • 11:17 AM » Freddie Mac Forgoes Issuing a Reference Notes Security on its June 19, 2018 Announcement Date
    Published Tue, Jun 19 2018 11:17 AM by www.freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Forgoes Issuing a Reference Notes Security on its June 19, 2018 Announcement Date
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 10:27 AM » Freddie Mac Prices $1.0 Billion Multifamily K-Deal, K-077
    Published Tue, Jun 19 2018 10:27 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Prices $1.0 Billion Multifamily K-Deal, K-077
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 9:56 AM » China slams U.S. 'blackmailing' as Trump issues new trade threat
    Published Tue, Jun 19 2018 9:56 AM by Reuters
    BEIJING/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 10 percent tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods and Beijing warned it would retaliate, in a rapid escalation of the trade conflict between the world's two biggest economies.
  • 9:55 AM » Germany's Ifo sees euro crisis 2.0, trade war slashing growth
    Published Tue, Jun 19 2018 9:55 AM by Reuters
    BERLIN, June 19 (Reuters) - Germany's Ifo institute on Tuesday cut its forecasts for growth in Europe's biggest economy this year and next, citing a weak start to the year and increased global risks.
  • 9:53 AM » ECB patient and gradual with rate hikes, Draghi says
    Published Tue, Jun 19 2018 9:53 AM by Reuters
    SINTRA, Portugal (Reuters) - The European Central Bank will be patient in tightening policy further, ECB President Mario Draghi said on Tuesday, adding that market pricings for its first post-crisis rate hike were consistent with its aim to move gradually.
  • 9:36 AM » Most people still don't understand a thing about their credit score, and it's costing them BIG time
    Published Tue, Jun 19 2018 9:36 AM by CNBC
    Many people are mistaken about the key factors that determine their credit score. Worse, they don't know the three easiest ways that can quickly pull it up.
  • 9:18 AM » Another Top-10 List — Where Millennials Are Moving 2018
    Published Tue, Jun 19 2018 9:18 AM by blog.stewart.com
    Millennials have made up the top-homebuyer demographic since 2016 and are likely to the primary demand segment for housing for decades to come. With a current force of 71 million in the population cohort, where Millennials end up moving and working may change the destiny of cities and states across the U.S. - both those … Read more
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: blog.stewart.com
  • 8:02 AM » US Homes Are a Lot Cheaper Than They Look, Harvard Study Finds
    Published Tue, Jun 19 2018 8:02 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg US Homes Are a Lot Cheaper Than They Look, Harvard Study Finds Bloomberg Before you call Harvard crazy, consider. Despite the long, stratospheric rise of home prices in the U.S., the inflation-adjusted monthly payment on the median single-family home in 2017 was less than in 1987, when home prices were lower but interest ...
  • Mon, Jun 18 2018
  • 4:21 PM » Fed official: Trade fears are hurting business optimism
    Published Mon, Jun 18 2018 4:21 PM by CNN
    Escalating trade tensions have all but wiped out the optimism that businesses felt because of tax cuts, a Federal Reserve official says.
  • 4:20 PM » S&P 500, Dow dip; trade-war worries countered by energy gains
    Published Mon, Jun 18 2018 4:20 PM by Reuters
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Dow and S&P fell modestly on Monday, ending well off session lows, as gains in energy shares helped curb declines stemming from trade war concerns after China's retaliation to U.S. tariffs.
  • 2:58 PM » Trump formally nominates U.S. CFPB director
    Published Mon, Jun 18 2018 2:58 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Donald Trump formally nominated Kathleen Kraninger as Director of the U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Monday, according to a White House statement.
  • 1:21 PM » Fed's Bostic says economic optimism has 'almost completely faded' because of trade fears
    Published Mon, Jun 18 2018 1:21 PM by CNBC
    Fears over a potential trade war are dampening the prospects for above-trend economic growth, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said Monday. At a time when most economists have substantially boosted their outlooks for GDP gains, particularly in the second quarter, the central bank official cautioned that the enthusiasm could be misplaced.
  • 1:21 PM » Phoenix Real Estate in May: Sales up 3%, Active Inventory down 16% YoY
    Published Mon, Jun 18 2018 1:21 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying. The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports ("Stats Report", table below): 1) Overall sales in May were up 2.8% year-over-year. 2) Active inventory is down 15.5% year-over-year.  In some cities, it appears the inventory decline might be ending, but not yet in Phoenix. This is the nineteenth consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory. May Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS   Sales YoY Change Active Inventory YoY Change 12-May 8,435 --- 12,932 --- 13-May 8,754 3.8% 15,517 20.0% 14-May 7,659 -12.5% 26,245 69.1% 15-May 8,319 8.6% 21,569 -17.8% 16-May 8,676 4.3% 18,975 -12.0% 17-May 9,641 11.1% 18,688 -1.5% 18-May 9,913 2.8% 15,795 -15.5%
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:40 AM » Russia cuts Treasury holdings in half as foreigners start losing appetite for US debt
    Published Mon, Jun 18 2018 11:40 AM by CNBC
    Foreign governments pulled back their purchase of U.S. debt as trade tensions escalated around the world.
  • 10:00 AM » How to play rising interest rates based on your age
    Published Mon, Jun 18 2018 10:00 AM by CNBC
    Here's what higher interest rates mean for you, whether you're a recent graduate, in mid-career or near retirement.
  • 8:22 AM » Hotels: Occupancy Rate decreased slightly Year-over-Year, On Record Annual Pace
    Published Mon, Jun 18 2018 8:22 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 9 June The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 3-9 June 2018, according to data from STR. In comparison with the week of 4-10 June 2017, the industry recorded the following: • Occupancy: -0.2% to 72.9% • Average daily rate (ADR): +2.5% to US$131.38 • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): +2.3% to US$95.82 emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2018, dash light blue is 2017 (record year due to hurricanes), blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year probably since the Great Depression for hotels). The occupancy rate, to date, is slightly ahead of the record year in 2017 (2017 finished strong due to the impact of the hurricanes). On a seasonal basis, the occupancy rate will be solid during the summer travel season. Data Source: STR, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:05 AM » Curve Flattening Gets Serious With Key Levels in Rearview Mirror
    Published Mon, Jun 18 2018 8:05 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Curve Flattening Gets Serious With Key Levels in Rearview Mirror Bloomberg As the march toward yield-curve inversion picks up speed in the Treasuries market, Federal Reserve officials are about to get a fresh chance to sound off on the phenomenon. With little top-tier U.S. economic data or supply to digest this week, traders ...
  • Fri, Jun 15 2018
  • 5:18 PM » Expiring Provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
    Published Fri, Jun 15 2018 5:18 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) added numerous temporary provisions to the tax code. Temporary tax law can be difficult to track and compliance can be expensive. The Joint Committee on Taxation released a guide to expiring tax provisions, sorted by year of expiration, earlier this year. The table below shows how many items in the tax code will... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 3:20 PM » Fed's Kaplan says trade is an opportunity, not threat
    Published Fri, Jun 15 2018 3:20 PM by Reuters
    FORT WORTH, Tx., June 15 (Reuters) - Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan on Friday said trade with Mexico and Canada boosts jobs in the United States, and warned that it will be difficult to solve problems that plague U.S.-China relations if trade frictions continue in North America.
  • 3:17 PM » Wall Street edges lower on renewed trade jitters, oil price drop
    Published Fri, Jun 15 2018 3:17 PM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks were down marginally on Friday after the United States announced hefty tariffs on Chinese imports and China vowed to respond in kind, stoking investor worries over an escalating tit-for-tat trade dispute.
  • 1:00 PM » Dudley Foresees Need for Fed Rate Hikes to Slow the US Economy
    Published Fri, Jun 15 2018 1:00 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Dudley Foresees Need for Fed Rate Hikes to Slow the US Economy Bloomberg The Federal Reserve will probably have to raise interest rates in the years ahead above levels officials consider neutral for the U.S. economy because of how far the unemployment rate has fallen, outgoing New York Fed President William Dudley said. and more »
  • 12:50 PM » Goldman Sachs model now points to 4% second-quarter GDP growth
    Published Fri, Jun 15 2018 12:50 PM by CNBC
    The U.S. economy is likely to grow faster than expected, according to a Goldman Sachs tracker model.
  • 12:32 PM » Citigroup to pay $100 million in rate-rigging settlement
    Published Fri, Jun 15 2018 12:32 PM by Reuters
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc has agreed to pay $100 million to settle charges by most U.S. states that it rigged the Libor benchmark interest rate to boost profit at the expense of investors.
  • 10:39 AM » BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 14 states in May
    Published Fri, Jun 15 2018 10:39 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Unemployment rates were lower in May in 14 states and stable in 36 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Eleven states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier and 39 states and the District had little or no change. The national unemployment rate edged down from April to 3.8 percent and was 0.5 percentage point lower than in May 2017. ... Hawaii had the lowest unemployment rate in May, 2.0 percent. Alaska had the highest jobless rate, 7.2 percent. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the number of states (and D.C.) with unemployment rates at or above certain levels since January 2006. At the worst of the employment recession, there were 11 states with an unemployment rate at or above 11% (red). Currently only one state, Alaska, has an unemployment rate at or above 7% (light blue); And only Alaska is above 6% (dark blue).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:12 AM » Consumer sentiment hits 99.3 in June vs. 98.3 estimate
    Published Fri, Jun 15 2018 10:12 AM by CNBC
    Consumer sentiment was anticipated to fall slightly in the beginning of June, after the index slipped in May.
  • 9:40 AM » Older Americans planning to downsize should brace for sticker shock
    Published Fri, Jun 15 2018 9:40 AM by CNBC
    With competition fierce for smaller and less-expensive homes, many retirees are surprised that their long-assumed plan to downsize will cost more than they anticipated.
  • 9:32 AM » Industrial Production Decreased 0.1% in May
    Published Fri, Jun 15 2018 9:32 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in May after rising 0.9 percent in April. Manufacturing production fell 0.7 percent in May, largely because truck assemblies were disrupted by a major fire at a parts supplier. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, factory output moved down 0.2 percent. The index for mining rose 1.8 percent, its fourth consecutive month of growth; the output of utilities moved up 1.1 percent. At 107.3 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 3.5 percent higher in May than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.2 percentage point in May to 77.9 percent , a rate that is 1.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2017) average. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 11.3 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967). Capacity utilization at 77.9% is 1.9% below the average from 1972 to 2017 and below the pre-recession level of 80.8% in December 2007. Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change. The second graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production decreased in May to 107.3. This is 23% above the recession low, and 2% above the pre-recession peak.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:38 AM » NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity continued to grow strongly in New York State"
    Published Fri, Jun 15 2018 8:38 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey Manufacturing firms in New York State reported that business activity expanded at a faster pace than in May. The general business conditions index rose five points to 25.0, its highest level in several months . The index for number of employees climbed ten points to 19.0, its highest level thus far in 2018, pointing to a pickup in employment levels. emphasis added This was above the consensus forecast and a strong reading.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:17 AM » Trump administration to slap a 25% tariff on $50 billion of Chinese goods, threatens more
    Published Fri, Jun 15 2018 8:17 AM by CNBC
    President Donald Trump said he could impose additional tariffs if China retaliates with duties of its own.
  • 8:04 AM » Volcker 'fix' may cause new headaches for Wall Street
    Published Fri, Jun 15 2018 8:04 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A proposal to simplify a rule banning banks from proprietary trading, rather than making life easier for Wall Street, could ensnare billions of dollars' worth of assets not currently caught by the regulation.
  • 8:04 AM » Powell Styles Himself a Fed Chairman for the People
    Published Fri, Jun 15 2018 8:04 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Powell Styles Himself a Fed Chairman for the People Bloomberg Alan Greenspan famously said he'd mastered the art of mumbling "with great incoherence" as Federal Reserve chairman. Jerome Powell is attempting the opposite approach. "Because monetary policy affects everyone, I want to start with a plain English ... and more »
  • Thu, Jun 14 2018
  • 3:19 PM » Regulation: Over 30 Percent of the Cost of a Multifamily Development
    Published Thu, Jun 14 2018 3:19 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    Regulation imposed by all levels of government (whether local, state or federal) accounts for 32.1 percent of the cost of an average multifamily development, according to a new study conducted jointly by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC). The study is based primarily on a survey of multifamily developers from both organizations. The results... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 3:18 PM » Sorry, Sellers: Your ‘For Sale' Sign May Be ‘Ugly and Desperate'—Here's Why
    Published Thu, Jun 14 2018 3:18 PM by www.realtor.com
    "For Sale" signs in front of homes are being called "ugly and desperate" by one town in Connecticut, which may ban the signs completely. Is the town right? The post Sorry, Sellers: Your ‘For Sale’ Sign May Be ‘Ugly and Desperate’-Here’s Why appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 3:18 PM » Trump's tariffs pose risk to global trade, U.S. economy: IMF
    Published Thu, Jun 14 2018 3:18 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund warned on Thursday that U.S. President Donald Trump's new import tariffs threaten to undermine the global trading system, prompt retaliation by other countries and damage the U.S. economy.
  • 1:31 PM » The Fed has taken the first step toward an early exit from its balance sheet reduction
    Published Thu, Jun 14 2018 1:31 PM by CNBC
    The Federal Reserve has begun preparing for what could be an early end to the reduction of bonds it purchased to pull the economy out of the financial crisis.
  • 12:35 PM » Jolted Awake by the Fed, And Now Back to Sleep
    Published Thu, Jun 14 2018 12:35 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Jolted Awake by the Fed, And Now Back to Sleep: Taking Stock Bloomberg Finally, something gave this market a jolt. The S&P 500 whipsawed once the Fed decision hit the tape on Wednesday, eventually picking a direction in the last hour of trading with a straight selloff into the close. But that was yesterday, and things are ... and more »
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