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  • Mon, Mar 2 2015
  • 4:19 PM » Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in January, Lowest since September 2008
    Published Mon, Mar 02 2015 4:19 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined slightly in January to 1.86% from 1.89% in December. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.33% in January 2014, and this is the lowest level since September 2008. The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%. Last week, Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate was declined in January to 1.86%. Freddie's rate is down from 2.34% in January 2014, and is at the lowest level since December 2008. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. Note: These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". Click on graph for larger image The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate has fallen 0.47 percentage points over the last year - the pace of improvement has slowed - and at that pace the serious delinquency rate will be under 1% in late 2016. The "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%, so maybe serious delinquencies will be close to normal at the end of 2016.  This elevated delinquency rate is mostly related to older loans - the lenders are still working through the backlog, especially in judicial foreclosure states like Florida.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:54 PM » Mixed messages on third Greek bailout talks
    Published Mon, Mar 02 2015 3:54 PM by Reuters
    MADRID/ATHENS (Reuters) - Euro zone countries are discussing a third bailout for Greece worth 30 billion to 50 billion euros, Spain's economy minister said on Monday, but EU officials said there were no such talks.
  • 3:02 PM » Second Homes Survey: Signs of Overheating
    Published Mon, Mar 02 2015 3:02 PM by
    The market for second homes is so tight from Aspen to Palm Beach that signs of speculative overheating are starting to show up. Even where markets appear soft, such as… (Read More) The post Second Homes Survey: Signs of Overheating appeared first on Top News .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 3:02 PM » Bernanke Says Fed Already Follows Policy Rule
    Published Mon, Mar 02 2015 3:02 PM by WSJ
    Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Monday Republican efforts to force the central bank to adopt an official policy rule to conduct interest policy are redundant because the Fed already sets out clear benchmarks for its interest rate actions
  • 3:02 PM » January Case-Shiller House Price Index year-over-year change expected to be about the same as in December
    Published Mon, Mar 02 2015 3:02 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Case-Shiller house price indexes for December were released last Tuesday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early - now including the National Index - and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Zillow: 10- & 20-City Case-Shiller Composites Expected to Show Declines In Jan. From Dec The December S&P/Case-Shiller (SPCS) data released [last] week showed healthy home price appreciation largely at pace with prior months, with annual growth in the U.S. National Index at 4.6 percent in December. Annual appreciation in home values as measured by SPCS has been less than 5 percent for the past four months. We anticipate this trend to continue as annual growth in home prices slows to more normal levels between 3 percent and 5 percent. Zillow predicts the U.S. National Index to rise 4.5 percent on an annual basis in January. The 10- and 20-City Composite Indices both experienced modest bumps in annual growth rates in December; the 10-City index rose to 4.3 percent and the 20-City Index rose to 4.5 percent - up from rates of 4.2 percent and 4.3 percent, respectively, in November. The non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) 10- and 20-City indices both rose 0.1 percent from November to December. We expect both to turn negative in January, with each predicted to fall 0.1 percent month-over-month (NSA). All forecasts are shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on the December SPCS data release and the January 2014 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), released Feb. 19. Officially, the SPCS Composite Home Price Indices for January will not be released until Tuesday, March 31. So the year-over-year change in for January Case-Shiller index will probably be about the same, or a little lower, than in the December report. Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast   Case-Shiller Composite 10 Case-Shiller Composite 20 Case-Shiller National NSA SA NSA SA NSA SA December Actual YoY 4.3% 4.3% 4.5% 4.5% 4.6% 4.6% January Forecast YoY...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:02 PM » Actavis Bond Offering Said to Get Orders Exceeding $70 Billion
    Published Mon, Mar 02 2015 3:02 PM by Bloomberg
    Actavis Bond Offering Said to Get Orders Exceeding $70 Billion Bloomberg (Bloomberg) -- Actavis Plc got more than $70 billion of orders for a bond offering that will help finance its purchase of Botox-maker Allergan Inc., as yield-starved debt investors swarm, according to a person with knowledge of the deal. That's more than three ... and more »
  • 1:52 PM » Fannie, Freddie Overseer Sets Rules for Sales of Delinquent Debt
    Published Mon, Mar 02 2015 1:52 PM by Bloomberg
    Fannie, Freddie Overseer Sets Rules for Sales of Delinquent Debt Bloomberg (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Housing Finance Agency released a set of new rules for the sale of troubled mortgages by U.S.- owned Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. FHFA, which oversees the government-sponsored enterprises, will require prospective ... and more »
  • 12:16 PM » This Survey Says: We're About Ready for That Rate Hike, Janet
    Published Mon, Mar 02 2015 12:16 PM by Bloomberg
    This Survey Says: We're About Ready for That Rate Hike, Janet Bloomberg The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is curious what Wall Street bond traders are saying about the timing of the start of interest rate increases and how robust they think economic indicators will be at that time. Before each meeting of the Fed's policy-making ...
  • 12:16 PM » Philadelphia Fed Picks Patrick Harker, University of Delaware President, to Lead It
    Published Mon, Mar 02 2015 12:16 PM by
    Mr. Harker, an engineer by training who has spent most of his career as an academic, has served on the Philadelphia Fed's board for three years.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 10:45 AM » US manufacturing hits 13-month-low
    Published Mon, Mar 02 2015 10:45 AM by CNBC
    The pace of U.S. manufacturing growth fell in February to its slowest in 13 months.
  • 10:43 AM » The mortgage market can tolerate twice as much credit risk
    Published Mon, Mar 02 2015 10:43 AM by Google News
    The Housing Finance Policy Center in December introduced a new measure of mortgage credit availability-the Credit Availability Index or HCAI. Today, we are releasing the results of our most recent HCAI analysis on loans made during the first three quarters of 2014. The HCAI measures the amount of default risk taken by the mortgage market […]
  • 10:42 AM » Bill Gross: Central banks have gone 'too far'
    Published Mon, Mar 02 2015 10:42 AM by CNBC
    Ultra-easy central bank monetary policies are about to come back to bite the global economy, bond guru Gross said in his latest letter to investors.
  • 10:41 AM » Director Cordray to testify on March 3 before House Financial Services Committee
    Published Mon, Mar 02 2015 10:41 AM by
    Barbara S. Mishkin The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing tomorrow, March 3, entitled "The Semi-Annual Report of the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection" at which Director Cordray is expected to testify. The most recent report was issued in December 2014 and covered the period from April 1 through September 30, 2014. The report itself typically serves... More >
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 10:41 AM » U.S. construction spending falls in January
    Published Mon, Mar 02 2015 10:41 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. construction spending unexpectedly fell in January as both private and public outlays fell, a government report showed on Monday.
  • 10:41 AM » Morgan Stanley Says New York Intends to Sue on 30 Subprime Deals
    Published Mon, Mar 02 2015 10:41 AM by Bloomberg
    Morgan Stanley Says New York Intends to Sue on 30 Subprime Deals Bloomberg (Bloomberg) -- Morgan Stanley said the New York Attorney General intends to sue the company, alleging the firm misrepresented or omitted information when it underwrote 30 subprime securitizations. The lawsuit will be brought under the state's Martin Act, ... and more »
  • 9:05 AM » Wells Fargo caps subprime auto loans
    Published Mon, Mar 02 2015 9:05 AM by CNBC
    Wells Fargo, one of the largest subprime car lenders, is pulling back from that roaring market.
  • 9:02 AM » US consumer spending falls in Jan
    Published Mon, Mar 02 2015 9:02 AM by CNBC
    U.S. consumer spending fell for a second straight month in January, as lower gasoline prices continued to weigh on receipts at service stations.
  • 8:44 AM » Personal Income increased 0.3% in January, Spending decreased 0.2%
    Published Mon, Mar 02 2015 8:44 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for January: Personal income increased $50.8 billion, or 0.3 percent ... in January, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $18.9 billion, or 0.2 percent. ... Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.3 percent in January, in contrast to a decrease of 0.1 percent in December. ... The price index for PCE decreased 0.5 percent in January, compared with a decrease of 0.2 percent in December. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent, compared with an increase of less than 0.1 percent. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through January 2015 (2009 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change . Click on graph for larger image. The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE. The increase in personal income was lower than expected,  Also the increase in PCE was below the 0.1% decrease consensus.  The sharp decline in oil and gasoline prices pulled down PCE (and the PCE price index).  Even though PCE decreased, real PCE increased in January (as shown in the graph). On inflation: The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent year-over-year due to the sharp decline in oil prices. The core PCE price index (excluding food and energy) increased 1.3 percent year-over-year in January.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • Sun, Mar 1 2015
  • 11:16 PM » Despite Greece, euro zone is turning the corner
    Published Sun, Mar 01 2015 11:16 PM by Reuters
    LONDON (Reuters) - The latest episode of Greece's debt crisis has revived doubts about the long-term survival of the euro, nowhere more so than in London, Europe's main financial center and a hotbed of Euroskepticism.
  • 11:12 PM » ECB braces for QE as others shift rates
    Published Sun, Mar 01 2015 11:12 PM by Reuters
    BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Greek funding and quantitative easing in Europe, an expected rate cut in Australia and the buoyant U.S. labor market are set to be the focus of an economic week dominated by a host of central bank meetings.
  • 10:58 PM » Asia edges up after China rate cut, euro sags
    Published Sun, Mar 01 2015 10:58 PM by Reuters
    TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian stocks got off to a steady start on Monday as soft U.S. data was partially offset by a weekend interest rate cut by China, while the dollar hit a five-week high against the euro.
  • 10:52 PM » Where Are The Construction Workers?
    Published Sun, Mar 01 2015 10:52 PM by The Big Picture
    Where Are The Construction Workers? Andrew Paciorek February 26, 2015         The labor market for construction workers suffered a massive shock in the wake of the housing bust, as demand for new homes dried up and firms rapidly shed workers. Employment in the construction sector fell nearly 25 percent from more than... Read More
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: The Big Picture
  • 10:36 PM » Monday: Personal Income and Outlays, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending
    Published Sun, Mar 01 2015 10:36 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    An excellent piece about the Fed from Tim Duy: <a href="">Game On</a><br /><blockquote>Bottom Line: The Fed's confidence in the US economy is driving them closer to policy normalization. The labor market improvements are key - as long as unemployment is falling, confidence in the inflation outlook is rising. The more important message, however, is as the timing of the first rate hike draws closer, the level of uncertainty is rising. And it is not just about the timing of that rate hike. The Fed is sending a clear message that the subsequent path of rates is also very uncertain, and they don't think that uncertainty is being taken seriously by market participants. In their view, financial markets are too complacent about the likely path of interest rates.</blockquote>Monday:<br />• At 8:30 AM ET, <b>Personal Income and Outlays for January</b>. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.1% decrease in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.<br /><br />• At 10:00 AM, the <b>ISM Manufacturing Index for February</b>. The consensus is for a decrease to 53.0 from 53.5 in January. The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in January at 53.5%. The employment index was at 54.1%, and the new orders index was at 52.9%.<br /><br />• Also at 10:00 AM, <b>Construction Spending for January</b>. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in construction spending.<br /><br />Weekend:<br />• <a href="">Schedule for Week of March 1, 2015</a><br /><br />From...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:31 PM » Greece seeks negotiations on ECB bond repayment
    Published Sun, Mar 01 2015 10:31 PM by Reuters
    ATHENS (Reuters) - Greece called into question on Saturday a major debt repayment it must make to the European Central Bank this summer, after acknowledging it faces problems in meeting its obligations to international creditors.
  • 10:30 PM » U.S. Bond Fund Investors Punished With Biggest Loss in 20 Months
    Published Sun, Mar 01 2015 10:30 PM by Bloomberg
    U.S. Bond Fund Investors Punished With Biggest Loss in 20 Months Bloomberg (Bloomberg) -- Investors in exchange-traded funds who snapped up bonds in the U.S. in February were punished with the biggest loss in 20 months. U.S. listed bond funds grew by $13.7 billion, the most since October, according to data compiled by ...
  • Fri, Feb 27 2015
  • 4:20 PM » Fed won't be predictable after lifting rates, Fischer says
    Published Fri, Feb 27 2015 4:20 PM by Market Watch
    The Fed won't telegraph its moves to the financial markets once it has started raising rates, said Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer on Friday
  • 4:19 PM » Blackstone Seeks Up to $15 Billion for Real Estate Fund
    Published Fri, Feb 27 2015 4:19 PM by Bloomberg
    Blackstone Seeks Up to $15 Billion for Real Estate Fund Bloomberg (Bloomberg) -- Blackstone Group LP, the largest private-equity investor in real estate, is seeking to raise as much as $15 billion of equity for its latest global property fund, surpassing its own record for funds of this type. The maximum target for Blackstone Real ...
  • 4:18 PM » ECB's Constancio Sees Stock of €4 Trillion Eligible for QE Purchases
    Published Fri, Feb 27 2015 4:18 PM by WSJ
    Vitor Constancio, vice president of the European Central Bank, played down worries in financial markets that the ECB will not be able to find enough bonds to complete its "quantitative easing" as planned.
  • 2:11 PM » Jobs report may test market's complacency
    Published Fri, Feb 27 2015 2:11 PM by Reuters
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. stock market has been quiet this week - too quiet.
  • 1:56 PM » Fed's Fischer: "Conducting Monetary Policy with a Large Balance Sheet"
    Published Fri, Feb 27 2015 1:56 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    A review of policy normalization by Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer: Conducting Monetary Policy with a Large Balance Sheet (excerpt) Turning to policy normalization, the FOMC and market participants anticipate that the federal funds rate will be raised sometime this year. We have for some years been considering ways to operate monetary policy with an elevated balance sheet. Prior to the financial crisis, because reserve balances outstanding averaged only around $25 billion, relatively minor variations in the total amount of reserves supplied by the Desk could move the equilibrium federal funds rate up or down. With the nearly $3 trillion in excess reserves today, the traditional mechanism of adjustments in the quantity of reserve balances to achieve the desired level of the effective federal funds rate may well not be feasible or sufficiently predictable. As discussed in the FOMC's statement on its Policy Normalization Principles and Plans, which was published following the September 2014 FOMC meeting, we will use the rate of interest paid on excess reserves (IOER) as our primary tool to move the federal funds rate into the target range .5 This action should encourage banks not to lend to any private counterparty at a rate lower than the rate they can earn on balances maintained at the Fed, which should put upward pressure on a range of short-term interest rates. Because not all institutions have access to the IOER rate, we will also use an overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ON RRP) facility, as needed. In an ON RRP operation, eligible counterparties may invest funds with the Fed overnight at a given rate. The ON RRP counterparties include 106 money market funds, 22 broker-dealers, 24 depository institutions, and 12 government-sponsored enterprises, including several Federal Home Loan Banks, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Farmer Mac. This facility should encourage these institutions to be unwilling to lend to private counterparties in money markets at a rate...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:35 PM » Hell no, we won't go! Homeowners who wouldn't budge
    Published Fri, Feb 27 2015 12:35 PM by CNBC
    Check out these homes or buildings distinguished from their new neighbors. They stand as monuments to the stubborn spirit of the owners.
  • 12:28 PM » Ocwen Tumbles After Mortgage Servicer Gets Fired From Bond Deals
    Published Fri, Feb 27 2015 12:28 PM by Bloomberg
    Ocwen Tumbles After Mortgage Servicer Gets Fired From Bond Deals Bloomberg (Bloomberg) -- Ocwen Financial Corp., the mortgage servicer under attack for its handling of home loans, slumped the most in more than a month after receiving notices that it was being fired from overseeing debt backing two bond deals. The company's ... and more »
  • 11:31 AM » Catching Up: Final February Consumer Sentiment at 95.4, Chicago PMI declines Sharply
    Published Fri, Feb 27 2015 11:31 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Click on graph for larger image. The final Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for February was at 95.4, up from the preliminary reading of 93.6, and down from 98.1 in January. This was above the consensus forecast of 94.0. Sentiment has been generally improving, and then surged last year at gasoline prices declined - and the economy improved.  The decline in February was probably related to higher gasoline prices. Chicago PMI February 2015: Chicago Business Barometer At 5½-Year Low The Chicago Business Barometer plunged 13.6 points to 45.8 in February , the lowest level since July 2009 and the first time in contraction since April 2013. The sharp fall in business activity in February came as Production, New Orders, Order Backlogs and Employment all suffered double digit losses, leaving them below the 50 level which separates contraction from expansion. The West Coast port strike and the harsh winter probably had a negative impact in February , although it is difficult to gauge the magnitude. emphasis added This was well below the consensus forecast of 58.3.  This is just one month, and the decline could be related to special factors - such as the port strike - and we need to see what happens in March.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:28 AM » U.S. pending home sales hit one-and-a-half-year high in January
    Published Fri, Feb 27 2015 10:28 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Contracts to purchase previously owned U.S. homes rose to their highest level in 1-1/2 years in January, a hopeful sign that the sluggish housing recovery may be gaining speed.
  • 10:27 AM » Economists React to the Fourth-Quarter GDP Report: ‘The Underlying Picture Remains Good'
    Published Fri, Feb 27 2015 10:27 AM by WSJ
    Economists weighed in on the contents of the fourth-quarter GDP report, showing the U.S. economy expanded at a 2.2% annual pace.
  • 10:27 AM » Fed's Dudley: Markets May Force a More Aggressive Rate Hike Cycle
    Published Fri, Feb 27 2015 10:27 AM by WSJ
    Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said Friday that while he sees no urgency to raise short-term interest rates, if unusually low bond yields don't rise the central bank could be forced to act more aggressively when it does start the process of boosting borrowing costs.
  • 9:05 AM » US Q4 growth rate revised down to 2.2%
    Published Fri, Feb 27 2015 9:05 AM by CNBC
    U.S. economic growth braked more sharply than initially thought in the fourth quarter, but the underlying fundamentals remained solid.
  • Thu, Feb 26 2015
  • 11:59 PM » Fed's Williams Sees Door Open for Interest-Rate Increases Starting in June
    Published Thu, Feb 26 2015 11:59 PM by WSJ
    Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams said the door is open to central bank interest rate increases any time from mid-June onward.
  • 11:58 PM » The Open House Goes Over the Top
    Published Thu, Feb 26 2015 11:58 PM by
    More than 250 guests gathered at a home in Los Angeles's Pacific Palisades neighborhood last fall. Models swam in the pool, guests attired in all-white drank mojitos and a singer… (Read More) The post The Open House Goes Over the Top appeared first on Top News .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 11:57 PM » Friday: GDP, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment, Pending Home Sales
    Published Thu, Feb 26 2015 11:57 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The following important older post on inflation from Professor Krugman explains why I follow various measures of underlying inflation: Core Logic [T]he idea of core inflation. Why do we need such a concept, and how should it be measured? So: core inflation is usually measured by taking food and energy out of the price index; but there are alternative measures, like trimmed-mean and median inflation, which are getting increasing attention. ... And people who say things like "That's a stupid concept - people have to spend money on food and gas, so they should be in your inflation measures" are missing the point. Core inflation isn't supposed to measure the cost of living, it's supposed to measure something else: inflation inertia . Think about it this way. Some prices in the economy fluctuate all the time in the face of supply and demand; food and fuel are the obvious examples. Many prices, however, don't fluctuate this way - they're set by oligopolistic firms, or negotiated in long-term contracts, so they're only revised at intervals ranging from months to years. Many wages are set the same way. The key thing about these less flexible prices - the insight that got Ned Phelps his Nobel - is that because they aren't revised very often, they're set with future inflation in mind. Suppose that I'm setting my price for the next year, and that I expect the overall level of prices - including things like the average price of competing goods - to rise 10 percent over the course of the year. Then I'm probably going to set my price about 5 percent higher than I would if I were only taking current conditions into account. And that's not the whole story: because temporarily fixed prices are only revised at intervals, their resets often involve catchup. ... The standard measure tries to do this by excluding the obviously non-inertial prices: food and energy. But are they the whole story? Of course not ... Hence the growing preference...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
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