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  • Thu, Sep 20 2018
  • 8:03 AM » DoubleLine's Gundlach warns US Treasury yields are headed higher
    Published Thu, Sep 20 2018 8:03 AM by CNBC
    Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive officer of DoubleLine Capital, on Wednesday said bond prices across the U.S. Treasury yield curve could fall if the 30-year yield closes above 3.25 percent twice in a row.
  • Wed, Sep 19 2018
  • 4:17 PM » Gundlach Is Right. Surging US Bond Yields Are Met With Shrugs
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 4:17 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Gundlach Is Right. Surging US Bond Yields Are Met With Shrugs Bloomberg The selloff in Treasuries that's taken the 10-year yield above 3 percent isn't getting enough attention. And DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach has noticed. He's right -- at least on the first part. References to "Treasury yields" in news articles are ... and more »
  • 4:16 PM » Treasury Yields Take Flight, Setting Up Big Shorts for Rewards
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 4:16 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Treasury Yields Take Flight, Setting Up Big Shorts for Rewards Bloomberg Liftoff may finally have arrived for yields in the world's biggest debt market. That's good news for the fast-money crowd that's rarely been more bearishly positioned on 10-year Treasury futures. Yields on all maturities have taken flight this week ... and more »
  • 4:12 PM » Nine Years Ago: Fast or Sluggish Recovery?
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 4:12 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    This is my 14th year writing this blog, and sometimes it is fun to look back at earlier predictions. In the early stages of the recovery (September 2009), a number of analysts were predicting a rapid recovery (see: A couple of Bullish Views ). My view was that the recovery would be sluggish.  First, I quoted from some optimistic views, and then wrote: I disagree with these views. Although I started the year expecting a bottom in new home sales and single family housing starts (and it appears that has happened), there is still too much existing home inventory for much of an increase in the short term. ... onsumers will remain under pressure as they repair their household balance sheets This time housing will remain under pressure until the number of excess housing units (both owner occupied and rentals) decline to more normal levels. So I think an "Immaculate Recovery" is very unlikely. Note: Housing starts did bottom in 2009, and then mostly moved sideways for the next couple of years. House prices didn't bottom for a few more years (from February 2012: The Housing Bottom is Here ). Click on graph for larger image. And, according to the NY Fed , household debt didn't bottom until Q2 2013. This graph shows aggregate consumer debt.  Household debt previously peaked in 2008, and bottomed in Q2 2013. Housing and household debt were drags on the economy for several years, and the recovery was sluggish. In addition, demographics weren't favorable (see: Demographics and GDP: 2% is the new 4%) sually following a recession, there is a brief period of above average growth - but not this time due to the financial crisis and need for households to deleverage. So we didn't see a strong bounce back (sluggish growth was predict on the blog for the first years of the recovery). And overall, we should have been expecting slower growth this decade due to demographics - even without the housing bubble-bust and financial crisis. For 2018...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:06 PM » This type of loan doesn't help your credit score, even if you stay on top of it
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 3:06 PM by CNBC
    Paying down your debts on time can help your credit score in the long run. But not if you use this type of loan.
  • 1:05 PM » The 'Great Bull' market is 'dead,' and here's what's next, Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 1:05 PM by CNBC
    The "Great Bull" market that came after the financial crisis is dead due to slowing economic growth, rising interest rates and too much debt, according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysis.
  • 1:02 PM » AIA: "August architecture firm billings rebound"
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 1:02 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: August architecture firm billings rebound as building investment spurt continues Architecture firm billings rebounded solidly in August, posting their eleventh consecutive month of growth, according to a report released today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA). AIA's Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for August was 54.2 compared to 50.7 in July (any score over 50 represents billings growth). Most of the growth continues to come from the South and the multi-family residential sector. "Billings at architecture firms in the South continue to lead the healthy increase in design activity that we've seen across the profession in recent months," said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. "Nationally, growth across all building sectors remains solidly positive." ... • Regional averages: West (54.2), Midwest (52.5), South (57.0), Northeast (46.9) • Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (55.6), institutional (52.3), commercial/industrial (53.6), mixed practice (51.7) emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 54.2 in August, up from 50.7 in July. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. According to the AIA, there is an "approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending" on non-residential construction.  This index was positive in 11 of the last 12 months, suggesting a further increase in CRE investment in 2018 and into 2019.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:19 AM » Draghi Urges New Euro-Zone Fiscal Tool to Keep Economy Stable
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 11:19 AM by Bloomberg
    Draghi Urges New Euro-Zone Fiscal Tool to Keep Economy Stable
  • 10:45 AM » Ten years after the financial crisis: Reflections by Bernanke, Geithner and Paulson
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 10:45 AM by webfeeds.brookings.edu
    Ten years after Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, former New York Fed President and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, and former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson reflect on the responses they led to the 2007-09 global financial crisis and ensuing Great Recession. Here are highlights of their wide-ranging conversation with Andrew Ross Sorkin…                
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: webfeeds.brookings.edu
  • 10:24 AM » Booking a vacation to Bermuda vs. a new kitchen: Here's how some people misuse their home equity
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 10:24 AM by CNBC
    Sure, you can use your home equity to cover a new kitchen or to help back up your rainy-day funds. But some people are just fine with using their abode to help meet monthly bills. Here's what you need to know about home equity loans and lines of credit.
  • 9:07 AM » Low-income Americans get double squeeze from poor credit and high fees
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 9:07 AM by CNBC
    Poor credit is a serious problem for low-income Americans.
  • 8:03 AM » The Fed has some big decisions to make starting next week
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 8:03 AM by CNBC
    When the Federal Reserve gathers next week, markets likely will be looking past a widely expected rate hike and toward the direction the central bank will chart ahead.
  • 8:01 AM » Cash-Strapped Americans Are Leveraging Their Homes to Pay the Bills
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 8:01 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Cash-Strapped Americans Are Leveraging Their Homes to Pay the Bills Bloomberg As U.S. household debt rises and wages stagnate, millions of Americans are tapping into home equity to keep up with day-to-day expenses. Twenty-four million homeowners believe borrowing against home equity is an acceptable way to cover regular bills, ... and more »
  • Tue, Sep 18 2018
  • 3:09 PM » Hurricane Florence Creating Housing Shortage for Displaced North Carolinians
    Published Tue, Sep 18 2018 3:09 PM by www.realtor.com
    Finding temporary housing for North Carolinians displaced by Hurricane Florence could prove more difficult than it was for those uprooted in the past. The post Hurricane Florence Creating Housing Shortage for Displaced North Carolinians appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 3:09 PM » Agencies propose rule regarding the treatment of high volatility commercial real estate
    Published Tue, Sep 18 2018 3:09 PM by Federal Reserve
    Agencies propose rule regarding the treatment of high volatility commercial real estate
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Federal Reserve
  • 1:31 PM » Parsing the Fed's Labor Participation Puzzle
    Published Tue, Sep 18 2018 1:31 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Parsing the Fed's Labor Participation Puzzle Bloomberg In the 2000 film Miss Congeniality, the beauty pageant contestant from Rhode Island is asked to describe her perfect date. She answers that it's April 25 "because it's not too hot, not too cold." Call this America's April 25 economy (Federal Reserve ... and more »
  • 1:30 PM » 'Another trillion in debt, here we come:' Cohn sees Trump working with Democrats on infrastructure
    Published Tue, Sep 18 2018 1:30 PM by CNBC
    Former White House economic advisor Gary Cohn said President Donald Trump will work with Congress to pass a massive debt-fueled infrastructure bill if Democrats take control after November elections.
  • 1:30 PM » Wall Street rallies as blow from fresh tariffs less than feared
    Published Tue, Sep 18 2018 1:30 PM by Reuters
    U.S. stocks rallied on Tuesday, led by gains in Apple and Amazon, as investors judged the latest tit-for-tat tariffs between the United States and China as less damaging than expected.
  • 1:29 PM » Buyers Are ‘Fatigued,' ‘Burned Out,' But Kept House-Hunting Even in August, Real-Estate Agents Say
    Published Tue, Sep 18 2018 1:29 PM by www.realtor.com
    August is generally a slow month for house hunting, but in nearly every metro area, surveyed agents spoke of a more profound slowdown than normal. The post Buyers Are 'Fatigued,' 'Burned Out,' But Kept House-Hunting Even in August, Real-Estate Agents Say appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 11:07 AM » Hurricane Florence insured losses $1.7 billion to $4.6 billion: AIR Worldwide
    Published Tue, Sep 18 2018 11:07 AM by Reuters
    Insured losses from winds and storm surge spurred by Hurricane Florence will range from $1.7 billion to $4.6 billion, catastrophe risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide said on Tuesday.
  • 10:18 AM » California Enacts Additional Limits on Collecting Time Barred Debts
    Published Tue, Sep 18 2018 10:18 AM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    Beginning in 2019, all California "debt collectors"-including creditors collecting their own debts regularly and in the ordinary course of business-will be required to provide notice to debtors when collecting on debts that are past the statute of limitations and will be prohibited from suing on such debts. The new law is based on provisions in... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 9:04 AM » California: "Housing market falters for fourth straight month", Inventory up 17.2% YoY
    Published Tue, Sep 18 2018 9:04 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The CAR reported: California's housing market falters for fourth straight month as high home prices take toll on demand, C.A.R. reports California's housing market dropped below the 400,000-level sales benchmark for the first time in more than two years as high home prices and eroding affordability combined to cut into housing demand, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today. Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 399,600 units in August, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2018 if sales maintained the August pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales. August's sales figure was down 1.8 percent from the revised 406,920 level in July and down 6.6 percent compared with home sales in August 2017 of 427,630. "Home sales activity remained on a downward trend for the fourth straight month as uncertainty about the housing market continues to mount," said C.A.R. President Steve White. "Buyers are being cautious and reluctant to make a commitment as they are concerned that home prices may have peaked and instead are waiting until there's more clarity in the market." "While home prices continued to rise modestly in August, the deceleration in price growth and the surge in housing supply suggest that a market shift is underway ," said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. "We are seeing active listings increasing and more price reductions in the market, and as such, the question remains, 'How long will it take for the market to close the price expectation gap between buyers and sellers?'" ... Statewide active listings rose for the fifth...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:21 AM » Escalation in U.S.-Chinese trade conflict hits German firms: BDI
    Published Tue, Sep 18 2018 8:21 AM by Reuters
    The escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China is very concerning and will affect German firms, Germany's BDI industry association said on Tuesday after the U.S. imposed further tariffs on Chinese imports.
  • 8:04 AM » Fed Will Hold After September Until 1Q, Says UBS' Zuercher
    Published Tue, Sep 18 2018 8:04 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Fed Will Hold After September Until 1Q, Says UBS' Zuercher Bloomberg Adrian Zuercher, head of Asia asset allocation at UBS Wealth Management CIO Office, discusses the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China and its impact on the U.S. economy. He speaks on "Bloomberg Markets: China Open." (Source: ... and more »
  • 8:04 AM » Factbox: Over 300,000 customers without power in Carolinas after Florence
    Published Tue, Sep 18 2018 8:04 AM by Reuters
    More than 300,000 U.S. homes and businesses, mostly in North Carolina and South Carolina, were still without power on Tuesday after storm Florence hit over the weekend, power companies said.
  • Mon, Sep 17 2018
  • 3:03 PM » Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declines Year-over-year
    Published Mon, Sep 17 2018 3:03 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 8 September The U.S. hotel industry reported mostly negative year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 2-8 September 2018, according to data from STR. In comparison with the week of 3-9 September 2017, the industry recorded the following: • Occupancy: -3.5% to 61.7% • Average daily rate (ADR): +1.0% to US$121.95 • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): -2.4% to US$75.25 STR analysts note that performance percentage changes in several major markets were significantly affected by the comparison with the post-Hurricane Harvey and pre-Hurricane Irma time period in 2017. Houston, Texas, reported the steepest decreases in each of the three key performance metrics: occupancy (-42.2% to 50.0%), ADR (-19.6% to US$90.73) and RevPAR (-53.6% to US$45.36). Houston's hotel performance was lifted in the weeks and months that followed Hurricane Harvey in 2017 as properties filled with displaced residents, relief workers, insurance adjustors, media members, etc. emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2018, dash light blue is 2017, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year probably since the Great Depression for hotels). The occupancy rate, to date, is just ahead of the record year in 2017. Note: 2017 finished strong due to the impact of the hurricanes.   There will be some boost to hotel occupancy in the Carolina region following hurricane Florence, but I expect the overall occupancy to be lower in 2018 than in 2017. Data Source: STR, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:02 PM » Pimco's Kiesel Sees 10-Year Yield Anchored as Growth Slows
    Published Mon, Sep 17 2018 3:02 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Pimco's Kiesel Sees 10-Year Yield Anchored as Growth Slows Bloomberg Mark Kiesel, chief investment officer of global credit at Pimco, explains the factors responsible for the lack of movement in the U.S. 10-Year yield. He speaks with Bloomberg's Vonnie Quinn on "Bloomberg Markets." (Source: Bloomberg) ... and more »
  • 12:43 PM » Goldman Sachs: Little sign of a recession for the next 3 years
    Published Mon, Sep 17 2018 12:43 PM by CNBC
    Recession risk is low, even when looking out three years from now, according to Goldman Sachs.
  • 12:42 PM » Mobile Home Values Might Rise as Fast as Regular Homes—Here's Why That Matters
    Published Mon, Sep 17 2018 12:42 PM by www.realtor.com
    Recent data suggests that mobile home values might rise-and that could have major implications in the push for increased affordable housing nationwide. The post Mobile Home Values Might Rise as Fast as Regular Homes-Here's Why That Matters appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 12:03 PM » Senate Banking Committee to hold Sept. 18 fintech hearing
    Published Mon, Sep 17 2018 12:03 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    Tomorrow, September 18, the Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing, "Fintech: Examining Digitization, Data, and Technology." Topics expected to be discussed include data privacy and the Treasury Department's recent fintech report. The scheduled witnesses, who do not include any regulators, are: Brian Knight, Director of the Innovation and Governance Program, Mercatus Center at George... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 11:42 AM » San Francisco Fed Pick's Research, From Wages to Growth
    Published Mon, Sep 17 2018 11:42 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg San Francisco Fed Pick's Research, From Wages to Growth Bloomberg Mary Daly will become Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President on Oct. 1, bringing with her decades of experience researching job markets and public policy. That could make Daly, whose promotion was announced Friday, an important voice as the ...
  • 11:18 AM » Storm Florence to benefit home improvement retailer sales – including Lowe's: Jefferies
    Published Mon, Sep 17 2018 11:18 AM by CNBC
    Jefferies reiterates its buy rating for Lowe's shares, citing positive checks from conversations with the retailer's employees.
  • 10:29 AM » LA area Port Traffic in August
    Published Mon, Sep 17 2018 10:29 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average. Click on graph for larger image. On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic was down 0.3% compared in August to the rolling 12 months ending in July.   Outbound traffic was up 0.2% compared to the rolling 12 months ending in July. The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports). Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. In general imports have been increasing, and exports have mostly moved sideways over the last 6 or 7 years. It is still too early to tell about the impact of the tariffs.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:44 AM » Western and Southern States Posts Single-Family Residential Permits Growth
    Published Mon, Sep 17 2018 9:44 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    Over the first seven months of 2018, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 521,438. On a year-over-year basis, this is a 7.0% increase over the July 2017 level of 487,495. The preliminary results from the New Residential Construction Survey are similar, year-to-date single-family permits over the first seven months of 2018 was, 522,200 which is... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 9:23 AM » Fom the NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity continued to grow at a solid clip in New York State"
    Published Mon, Sep 17 2018 9:23 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey Business activity continued to grow at a solid clip in New York State, according to firms responding to the September 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index showed ongoing strength, but moved down seven points to 19.0, pointing to a slower pace of growth than last month . New orders and shipments grew moderately. Delivery times continued to lengthen, and inventories moved higher. Labor market indicators pointed to an increase in employment levels and longer workweeks. Price indexes were little changed and remained elevated, suggesting ongoing significant increases in both input prices and selling prices. Looking ahead, firms remained fairly optimistic about the six-month outlook. The index for number of employees held steady at 13.3 and the average workweek index was 11.5, indicating a modest increase in both employment levels and hours worked. emphasis added This was below the consensus forecast, but still a solid reading.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:39 AM » Why Carney's 35% No-Deal UK Housing Crash Is Overkill
    Published Mon, Sep 17 2018 8:39 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Why Carney's 35% No-Deal UK Housing Crash Is Overkill Bloomberg Bank of England Governor Mark Carney painted a stark picture of what a no-deal Brexit might mean for house prices, with prices plunging 35 percent over three years in a worst case scenario. Bloomberg Economics sees that as excessive, as a no-deal ...
  • 8:22 AM » The Best Places to Live in America, 2018: Revenge of the Burbs!
    Published Mon, Sep 17 2018 8:22 AM by www.realtor.com
    Realtor.com teamed up with Money magazine to come up with its list of Best Places to Live: communities where you'd want to buy a house, and raise a family-and where you can afford to do so. The post The Best Places to Live in America, 2018: Revenge of the Burbs! appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 8:04 AM » ECB should clarify pace of rate hikes when time comes - Coeure
    Published Mon, Sep 17 2018 8:04 AM by Reuters
    ECB should clarify pace of rate hikes when time comes - Coeure
  • 8:03 AM » China paper warns it won't play defense on trade as Trump lauds tariffs
    Published Mon, Sep 17 2018 8:03 AM by Reuters
    China paper warns it won't play defense on trade as Trump lauds tariffs
  • Fri, Sep 14 2018
  • 4:31 PM » Wall Street near flat, Trump gives go ahead on China tariffs
    Published Fri, Sep 14 2018 4:31 PM by Reuters
    U.S. stocks were flat on Friday after President Donald Trump instructed aides to proceed with tariffs on about $200 billion of Chinese products, while financial shares gained with bond yields.
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