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  • Tue, Dec 6 2016
  • 3:55 PM » Trump seems like he's trying to restore pre-financial crisis inequities: Michael Lewis
    Published Tue, Dec 06 2016 3:55 PM by CNBC
    Author Michael Lewis is terrified that capital requirements on banks may be reduced when Trump takes office.
  • 12:49 PM » Wells Fargo expects short term profit hit from interest rates rise: CEO
    Published Tue, Dec 06 2016 12:49 PM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - Wells Fargo & Co will see a near term profit hit because of the sharp rise in interest rates, Chief Executive Officer Tim Sloan said on Tuesday.
  • 10:32 AM » U.S. Economy: No Recovery
    Published Tue, Dec 06 2016 10:32 AM by www.gallup.com
    A Gallup study of U.S. growth and productivity finds no economic recovery. The Great Recession may be over, but America is running on empty.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.gallup.com
  • 10:32 AM » U.S. factory orders post biggest gain in nearly 1-1/2 years
    Published Tue, Dec 06 2016 10:32 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON, (Reuters) - New orders for U.S. factory goods recorded their biggest increase in nearly 1-1/2 years in October, further evidence that the manufacturing sector is gradually recovering after a prolonged downturn.
  • 10:31 AM » Bond Report: Treasury yields unchanged ahead of central bank meetings
    Published Tue, Dec 06 2016 10:31 AM by Market Watch
    Treasury yields were little-changed Tuesday, as investors were reluctant to make big bets ahead of the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday and the Federal Reserve policy meeting next week
  • 9:59 AM » U.S. productivity in third quarter fastest in two years
    Published Tue, Dec 06 2016 9:59 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON, (Reuters) - U.S. worker productivity rebounded sharply in the third quarter as initially estimated, marking its quickest rate of growth in two years, but the trend remained weak.
  • 9:54 AM » Credit Restrictions Cost Home Buyers ‘Deal of a Lifetime'
    Published Tue, Dec 06 2016 9:54 AM by www.realtor.com
    U.S. consumers have enjoyed ultralow borrowing costs since the financial crisis, but regulators and lenders have made it harder for many to get loans. The post Credit Restrictions Cost Home Buyers 'Deal of a Lifetime' appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 9:54 AM » Bill Gross: Trump good for stocks now, but bad for 'long-term debt crisis'
    Published Tue, Dec 06 2016 9:54 AM by CNBC
    President-elect Donald Trump will be good for stocks but only add to a "long-term global debt crisis," bond guru Bill Gross said Tuesday.
  • 9:52 AM » Real estate sector has sunk since its creation, and could spiral further
    Published Tue, Dec 06 2016 9:52 AM by CNBC
    Since its creation in September, the S&P 500 real estate sector has been the market's worst performer.
  • 7:58 AM » Traders count down to ECB, Fed meetings
    Published Tue, Dec 06 2016 7:58 AM by CNBC
    Market attention may center Tuesday on monetary policy, as traders await major central bank meetings over the next several days.
  • 7:58 AM » Pricier home prices spark surge in Toll Brothers revenue
    Published Tue, Dec 06 2016 7:58 AM by CNBC
    U.S. luxury homes builder Toll Brothers reported a 29.1 percent rise in quarterly revenue, boosted by higher home sales and an increase in average selling prices.
  • Mon, Dec 5 2016
  • 4:13 PM » Trump policies may work if they improve productivity: Fed's Bullard
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 4:13 PM by Reuters
    PHOENIX (Reuters) - The policies outlined by President-elect Donald Trump could boost the U.S. economy if they improve productivity, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said on Monday.
  • 4:12 PM » Ben Carson, no fan of government or housing policy, draws fire as pick for HUD top spot
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 4:12 PM by Market Watch
    The retired neurosurgeon has been nominated as secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development despite saying previously he would not lead a federal agency.
  • 2:22 PM » Fed officials warn Trump that fiscal policy must be smart
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 2:22 PM by Market Watch
    New York Fed President William Dudley and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans warned Republicans that their plans for government spending must be designed with care to boost the economy while saving money in case of a downturn.
  • 2:16 PM » Suburbs Outstrip Cities in Population Growth, Study Finds
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 2:16 PM by www.realtor.com
    Big cities may be getting all the attention, but the suburbs are holding their own in the battle for population and young earners, a new study finds. The post Suburbs Outstrip Cities in Population Growth, Study Finds appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 1:26 PM » 2017 Housing Forecasts
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 1:26 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year.  It looks like analysts are optimistic on New Home sales for 2017. First a review of the previous four years ... Here is a summary of forecasts for 2016 . In 2016, new home sales will probably be around 565 thousand, and total housing starts will be around 1.175 million.  Fannie Mae and Merrill Lynch were very close on New Home sales, and MetroStudy was close on starts. Here is a summary of forecasts for 2015 . In 2015, new home sales were 501 thousand, and total housing starts were 1.112 million.  Zillow, CoreLogic, and the MBA were right on with New Home sales, and CoreLogic, MetroStudy, MBA and Zillow were all correct on starts. Here is a summary of forecasts for 2014 . In 2014, new home sales were 437 thousand, and total housing starts were 1.003 million. No one was close on New Home sales (all way too optimistic), and Michelle Meyer (Merrill Lynch) and Fannie Mae were the closest on housing starts (about 10% too high). In 2014, many analysts underestimated the impact of higher mortgage rates and higher new home prices on new home sales and starts. Here is a summary of forecasts for 2013 . In 2013, new home sales were 429 thousand, and total housing starts were 925 thousand.  Barclays was the closest on New Home sales followed by David Crowe (NAHB).  Fannie Mae and the NAHB were the closest on housing starts. The table below shows several forecasts for 2017: From Fannie Mae: Housing Forecast: November 2016 From Freddie Mac: Interest Rates Headed Higher. What that Means for Housing From NAHB: NAHB's housing and economic forecast From Wells Fargo: Monthly Economic Outlook From NAR: U.S. Economic Outlook: November 2016 Note: For comparison, new home sales in 2016 will probably be around 565 thousand, and total housing starts around 1.175 million. Housing Forecasts for 2017 New Home Sales (000s) Single Family Starts...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:26 PM » How Will Homebuyers React to Mortgage Rate Increases?
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 1:26 PM by www.redfin.com
    Yes, homebuyers have seen mortgage rate increases of over half a percent in the past three weeks. But according a Redfin survey, most are still buying. The post How Will Homebuyers React to Mortgage Rate Increases? appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 11:44 AM » ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 57.2% in November
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 11:44 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The November ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 57.2%, up from 54.8% in October. The employment index increased in November to 58.1%, from 53.1%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: November 2016 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in November for the 82nd consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. " The NMI® registered 57.2 percent in November , 2.4 percentage points higher than the October reading of 54.8 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. This is the 12-month high, and the highest reading since the 58.3 registered in October of 2015. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 61.7 percent, 4 percentage points higher than the October reading of 57.7 percent, reflecting growth for the 88th consecutive month, at a faster rate in November. The New Orders Index registered 57 percent, 0.7 percentage point lower than the reading of 57.7 percent in October. The Employment Index increased 5.1 percentage points in November to 58.2 percent from the October reading of 53.1 percent. The Prices Index decreased 0.3 percentage point from the October reading of 56.6 percent to 56.3 percent, indicating prices increased in November for the eighth consecutive month at a slightly slower rate. According to the NMI®, 14 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in November. The Non-Manufacturing sector rebounded after a slight cooling-off in October. The majority of respondents' comments are positive about business conditions and the direction of the overall economy." emphasis added Click...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:34 AM » What Qualifies Ben Carson To Run HUD? 'His Life,' Says Longtime Adviser
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 11:34 AM by www.npr.org
    President-elect Trump announced he's appointing Ben Carson as secretary of Housing and Urban Development. Rachel Martin talks with Carson adviser Armstrong Williams, a conservative talk show host.
  • 10:13 AM » Trump effect: That house you want got $16,000 more expensive since he won
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 10:13 AM by CNBC
    Since Trump's victory, rising mortgage rates have made homes the least affordable since the Great Recession.
  • 9:34 AM » U.S. fiscal picture unclear; rate-hike plan stays for now: Fed's Dudley
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 9:34 AM by Reuters
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. election of Donald Trump has created "considerable" uncertainty over the policies he will pursue so it is too soon for the Federal Reserve to judge whether its plan for gradual interest rate hikes needs adjusting, one of the most influential Fed policymakers said on Monday.
  • 9:33 AM » Black Knight's October Mortgage Monitor: Post-Election Rate Jumps Eliminate 4.3 Million from Refinanceable Population
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 9:33 AM by www.bkfs.com
    Black Knight's October Mortgage Monitor: Post-Election Rate Jumps Eliminate 4.3 Million from Refinanceable Population<br/>http://www.bkfs.com/CorporateInformation/NewsRoom/Pages/20161205.aspx
  • 9:33 AM » NAHB Releases New Home Building Employment Estimates by State and Congressional District
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 9:33 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    The new NAHB study presents the most recent and comprehensive estimates of home building employment, including self-employed workers, by state and congressional district. NAHB Economics estimates that out of 9.6 million people working in construction in 2015, close to 3.8 million people worked in residential construction, accounting for 2.5% of the US employed civilian labor force. These numbers reflect steady... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 8:13 AM » Italy's referendum result is not another Brexit or Trump
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 8:13 AM by www.theguardian.com
    First Britain voted for Brexit. Then America voted for Trump. And now Italians have overwhelmingly voted to reject constitutional reform, leading Matteo Renzi to state he will resign as prime minister later today. It's tempting to draw parallels between the three votes. But Italy's referendum does not mark a political earthquake. Its causes are different, and its effects on domestic and international politics are likely to be contained.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.theguardian.com
  • 8:08 AM » Trump nominates Ben Carson to head HUD
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 8:08 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on Monday nominated Dr. Ben Carson to serve as secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
  • 8:03 AM » Here's what Mario Draghi and the ECB could do now Italy has voted No
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 8:03 AM by CNBC
    Expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will extend its bond-buying program have risen post-Italy's vote.
  • 8:02 AM » Poor Gretchen on Fannie and Freddie
    Published Mon, Dec 05 2016 8:02 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    My former co-blogger Tanta wrote several posts pointing out questionable reporting in articles by "poor Gretchen" Morgenson of the NY Times.  Tanta would have a field day with GM's article today: Trump Treasury May Mean Independence for Fannie and Freddie With an apology to Tanta (who knew far more about the mortgage market than I ever will, and was a far better writer than me), here are a few comments on the article today. Gretchen starts by quoting Steven Mnuchin, the nominee to run the Treasury Department for the next administration: "We got to get Fannie and Freddie out of government ownership," he told Fox Business. "It makes no sense that these are owned by the government and have been controlled by the government for as long as they have." Mr. Mnuchin is right. We got to get Steve in an English class, but lets focus on the substance. Is Mnuchin right? "It makes no sense that these are owned by the government" is a declarative statement without any backing. Perhaps Gretchen and Steve could study a little history. Fannie Mae was started in 1938 as a government agency to provide liquidity in the mortgage market. Over time Fannie was changed into a public-private organization, and finally into a private, for-profit, corporation with an implied government backing. This privatization has been described as "privatizing profits, and socializing losses". If something made no sense, it was a structure that gave the profits to private investors, with the risks borne by the taxpayers.  It should be obvious to all that the original privatization was a mistake. Instead of putting Fannie and Freddie into bankruptcy during the crisis - and wiping out the shareholders while putting a stranglehold on the housing market at exactly the wrong time - the government put Fannie and Freddie into conservatorship.   This kept the housing market on life support.  The taxpayers took all of the risk,...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • Fri, Dec 2 2016
  • 4:47 PM » The regulatory system 'needs to be debugged,' Blackstone co-founder Schwarzman says
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 4:47 PM by CNBC
    "That doesn't mean that all regulation is bad, but there's a certain balance," Stephen Schwarzman said Friday.
  • 4:47 PM » Zillow Forecast: Expect Case-Shiller Index to "continue to accelerate" in October
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 4:47 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Case-Shiller house price indexes for September were released Tuesday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Zillow: October Case-Shiller Forecast: Continuing to put the Recession in the Rearview According to Zillow's October Case-Shiller forecast, annual growth in the national index is expected to continue to accelerate, along with upticks in monthly growth in both smaller 10-city and 20-city indices. Sustained growth in the national index will continue to put pre-recession housing peaks in the rearview mirror, as September marked the first month in which national home prices exceeded those set prior to the recession. The September Case-Shiller national index is expected to grow 5.7 percent year-over-year and 0.8 percent month-to-month (seasonally adjusted), even with the pace of monthly growth and up from 5.5 percent annual growth pace set in September. We expect the 10-city index to grow 4.2 percent year-over-year and 0.4 percent (SA) from September. The 20-City Index is expected to grow 5 percent between October 2015 and October 2016, and rise 0.5 percent (SA) from Septmber. Zillow's October Case-Shiller forecast is shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on today's September Case-Shiller data release and the October 2016 Zillow Home Value Index . The October S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices will not be officially released until Tuesday, December 27. The year-over-year change for the 10-city and 20-city indexes will probably be about the same or slightly lower in the October report as in the September report.  The change for the National index will probably be slightly higher.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:49 PM » Fed's Tarullo warns against 'backsliding' on bank regulations
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 3:49 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. banking regulators must defend tough rules governing Wall Street and resist efforts to dilute regulations that might prevent a future financial crisis, Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo said on Friday.
  • 3:48 PM » Gundlach's DoubleLine sees worst outflows since 2014 'taper tantrum'
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 3:48 PM by Market Watch
    DoubleLine Capital on Friday said its funds had collectively posted a net outflow of $990.5 million in November, the first month that share redemptions exceeded subscriptions since January 2014, during the Federal Reserve's so-called "taper tantrum." Tracking the trend of the overall market, the fund's bond portfolios saw particular outflows, with the DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund - the firm's largest fund by assets, with $59.2 billion - seeing $1.4 billion in outflows over the month, the third largest monthly outflows in the fund's history. Bonds saw heavy selling in November, especially after the election of Donald Trump, with investors expecting the President-elect's proposals to lead to higher interest rates and inflation. November was the worst month for Treasurys since December 2009, with yields on the 10-year rising more than 50 basis points in the month. The $1.7 billion DoubleLine Shiller Enhanced CAPE fund, DoubleLine's biggest equities fund, saw $171.7 million in inflows over November. Stocks rallied following the election, with investors betting that Trump's policies would lead to accelerated levels of growth. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 4.5% since the election while the S&P 500 is up 2.4%.
  • 3:48 PM » Homeowners Hit the Jackpot
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 3:48 PM by www.realtor.com
    Homeowners who stay put-living in the same home for 15, 20, 30 years-can pocket millions of dollars when they finally make a move. The post Homeowners Hit the Jackpot appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 3:48 PM » Trump's dilemma: slower job growth or rising rates and inflation?
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 3:48 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A drop in the U.S. unemployment rate last month to a 9-year low signals the risk of a collision between President-elect Donald Trump's plans to goose the economy and the Federal Reserve's efforts to tap the brakes with higher interest rates.
  • 12:06 PM » El-Erian: Trump's Carrier Move Not a Scalable Policy - Bloomberg Video
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 12:06 PM by Bloomberg
    El-Erian: Trump's Carrier Move Not a Scalable Policy Bloomberg Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz and Bloomberg View columnist, discusses the potential impact of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's economic policies on labor. He speaks on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas." (El-Erian is a Bloomberg ... and more »
  • 12:03 PM » Serious Delinquency Rates Improve Across Most Household Debts
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 12:03 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    A recent release by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York indicates that, in aggregate, 90 or more day delinquency rates are falling on most household debt products. However, serious delinquency on student loans remains elevated while a greater portion of auto debt held by households with low credit scores is entering serious delinquency. The results indicate that household balance... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 12:02 PM » The real driver behind the dollar breakout
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 12:02 PM by Market Watch
    The reason for the massive selloff in U.S. bonds is clearly the Trump election victory, as too many investors got caught with a wrong-way bet that interest rates in the U.S. were likely to remain subdued, given that they are some of the highest in the developed world.
  • 9:32 AM » Mortgagee Letter 2016-20
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 9:32 AM by HUD
    2017 Nationwide Forward Mortgage Limits
  • 9:06 AM » The Labor Department says unemployment is at 4.6% — but here's the bigger picture
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 9:06 AM by CNBC
    Relying on that one headline number as an indicator of the economy ignores important information just below the surface.
  • 9:05 AM » Jobless rate slides to 4.6% on solid November
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 9:05 AM by CNBC
    This also will be the last major employment indicator before the Fed meets to decide whether to raise rates.
  • 8:21 AM » Investors may look to ECB for comfort after high-risk votes
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 8:21 AM by Reuters
    FRANKFURT (Reuters) - With Italy's constitutional referendum and Austria's presidential vote on Sunday both potentially underlining growing anti-establishmentism, the European Central Bank is preparing to set to try to bring some calm to the mix.
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