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  • Fri, Dec 7 2018
  • 12:52 PM » Seattle Real Estate in November: Sales Down 20% YoY, Inventory up 135% YoY
    Published Fri, Dec 07 2018 12:52 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported Home buyers have "window of opportunity" with shift to more balanced market With more plentiful inventory, recently announced increases in lending limits, and moderating prices, prospective home buyers are finding more options around Western Washington, according to industry experts from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. "Moderating interest rates over the past few weeks could provide a window of opportunity for buyers this month, even if the Fed is widely expected to raise them again in December," said Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain. "We are continuing to see a balancing of the market," Grady stated, citing moderating prices and increasing inventory as contributing factors in comments about the latest figures from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. House hunters have a much bigger selection than a year ago. Northwest MLS figures for the 23 counties in its report show the year-over-year volume of inventory rose from 11,193 homes and condos to 15,830. The increase in active listings represents a gain of more than 41 percent. Members added 6,399 new listings to inventory last month, up from 6,098 for the same month a year ago. King County registered the biggest gains, with active inventory surging 135 percent from a year ago . The number of single family homes more than doubled from a year ago, rising from 1,879 to 4,020, while the condo selection more than tripled, jumping from 355 active listings twelve months ago to last month's total of 1,221. Eight counties reported fewer listings than a year ago. "Months of inventory is still slim compared to historical norms," Grady emphasized. Using this metric, both King County and the Northwest MLS market area overall have 2.3 months of supply. While supply is improving, it's still well below the 4-to-6 month level industry analysts use as a gauge of a balanced market. The surge in supply is not yet reflected...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:21 PM » Another Temporary Extension of the Flood Insurance Program
    Published Fri, Dec 07 2018 12:21 PM by
    As previously reported, the National Flood Insurance Program was scheduled to expire on November 30, 2018 and Congress extended the Program to December 7, 2018. The US House of Representatives and US Senate have once again voted to temporarily extend the Program, this time until December 21, 2018. Perhaps Congress is hoping that someone will... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 11:24 AM » Barbara Corcoran says the No. 1 mistake home-buyers make is one she made too
    Published Fri, Dec 07 2018 11:24 AM by CNBC
    Even real estate queen Barbara Corcoran admits to having once made this common mistake when she bought her first property.
  • 10:55 AM » Comments on November Employment Report
    Published Fri, Dec 07 2018 10:55 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The headline jobs number at 155 thousand for November was below consensus expectations of 190 thousand, and the previous two months were revised down 12 thousand, combined. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%.  Still this was a decent report. Earlier: November Employment Report: 155,000 Jobs Added, 3.7% Unemployment Rate In November, the year-over-year employment change was 2.443 million jobs. This is solid year-over-year growth. Seasonal Retail Hiring Typically retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year. Click on graph for larger image. This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Since then seasonal hiring has increased back close to more normal levels. Note: I expect the long term trend will be down with more and more internet holiday shopping. Retailers hired 464 thousand workers (NSA) net in November.   Note: this is NSA (Not Seasonally Adjusted). Just like last year, there was a surge in seasonal hiring in November. Average Hourly Earnings Wage growth was close to expectations in November. From the BLS: " In November, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 6 cents to $27.35. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 81 cents, or 3.1 percent. " This graph is based on "Average Hourly Earnings" from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) (aka "Establishment") monthly employment report. Note: There are also two quarterly sources for earnings data: 1) "Hourly Compensation," from the BLS's Productivity and Costs ; and 2) the Employment Cost Index which includes wage/salary and benefit compensation. The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees.  Nominal wage growth was at 3.1% YoY in...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:25 AM » Markets see easier Fed after November hiring slowdown
    Published Fri, Dec 07 2018 10:25 AM by CNBC
    November's employment report was a 'Goldilocks' report, solid enough to reflect a vigorous labor market, but not strong enough to encourage the Fed to be more aggressive.
  • 10:01 AM » U.S. job growth cools in November, monthly wage gains modest
    Published Fri, Dec 07 2018 10:01 AM by Reuters
    U.S. job growth slowed in November and monthly wages increased less than expected, suggesting some moderation in economic activity that could support expectations of fewer interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve in 2019.
  • 9:33 AM » 10 once-affordable housing markets where residents could soon be priced out
    Published Fri, Dec 07 2018 9:33 AM by CNBC
    In North Las Vegas, Nevada, the home value to household income ratio jumped almost 18 percent in a single year, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau and financial website SmartAsset.
  • 8:06 AM » Las Vegas Real Estate in November: Sales Down 12% YoY, Inventory up 63% YoY
    Published Fri, Dec 07 2018 8:06 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    This is a key former distressed market to follow since Las Vegas saw the largest price decline, following the housing bubble, of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities. The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported Southern Nevada home prices level off heading into holidays; GLVAR housing statistics for November 2018 Southern Nevada home prices leveled off heading into the holidays, with more homes on the market and fewer properties changing hands. So says a report released Thursday by the Greater Las Vegas Association of REALTORS® (GLVAR). ... The total number of existing local homes, condos and townhomes sold during November was 2,857 . Compared to one year ago, November sales were down 11.6 percent for homes and down 7.1 percent for condos and townhomes. ... As for the number of local homes available for sale, Bishop said it's still below what would be considered a balanced market but continued its recent rise to what is now a three-month housing supply. By the end of November, GLVAR reported 7,003 single-family homes listed for sale without any sort of offer. That's up 54.3 percent from one year ago. For condos and townhomes, the 1,605 properties listed without offers in November represented a 118.4 percent jump from one year ago . ... The number of so-called distressed sales continues to drop each year. GLVAR reported that short sales and foreclosures combined accounted for just 2.6 percent of all existing local property sales in November, down from just under 5 percent of all sales one year ago and 10.5 percent two years ago. emphasis added 1) Overall sales were down 10.8% year-over-year from 3,202 in November 2017 to 3,335 in November 2018. 2) Active inventory (single-family and condos) is up sharply from a year ago, from a total of 5,273 in November 2017 to 8,608 in November 2018. Note: Total inventory was up 63.2% year-over-year.   This is a significant increase in inventory. 3) Fewer distressed sales.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:06 AM » U.S. employment report seen calming fears over economy
    Published Fri, Dec 07 2018 8:06 AM by Reuters
    U.S. companies likely maintained a solid pace of hiring in November while increasing wages for workers, suggesting the economy remains strong enough for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates in 2019.
  • 8:06 AM » Dovish Fed Hike Seen by JPMorgan as Markets Flash ‘Slowdown'
    Published Fri, Dec 07 2018 8:06 AM by Bloomberg
    Dovish Fed Hike Seen by JPMorgan as Markets Flash 'Slowdown'    Bloomberg It may not be the "Powell Put," but the Federal Reserve is likely to deliver some response to the wave of risk aversion hitting global markets, according to ...
  • Thu, Dec 6 2018
  • 5:02 PM » Markets not out of the woods yet, with jobs report looming on Friday
    Published Thu, Dec 06 2018 5:02 PM by CNBC
    Stocks sank Thursday and then rallied back. But buying still seems tentative, even with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1,500 points in two days.
  • 1:59 PM » Mortgage rates drop to 2-month low—an unexpected holiday gift to housing
    Published Thu, Dec 06 2018 1:59 PM by CNBC
    Mortgage rates are falling sharply, as investors head to the relative safe-haven of the bond market. Mortgage rates follow loosely the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury. The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed has fallen 21 basis points in the past week, from 4.94 percent to 4.73 percent today, according to Mortgage News Daily. The drop comes after the 30-year fixed hit a recent 8-year high of 5.05 percent at the start of November.
  • 1:59 PM » BlackRock's Rieder buying longer-term bonds as Fed pause seems likely
    Published Thu, Dec 06 2018 1:59 PM by Reuters
    BlackRock Inc's Rick Rieder is buying longer-term bonds because softening inflation could force the U.S. Federal Reserve to pause interest rate hikes, the top fixed-income investor told Reuters this week.
  • 11:51 AM » Markets are turning up the heat on the Fed to dial back rate hikes
    Published Thu, Dec 06 2018 11:51 AM by CNBC
    Amid the latest round of market turmoil this week, the market has lowered the probability of an interest rate hike when the central bank's policymaking body meets later this month. They've also reduced the chances of future increases.
  • 11:00 AM » Here's the ideal amount to put down when buying a home—and it's not what you think, says David Bach
    Published Thu, Dec 06 2018 11:00 AM by CNBC
    In an ideal world, you'll opt for a down payment of 25 percent when you're buying a home, says bestselling author David Bach, and don't put down less than 20 percent.
  • 10:19 AM » ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 60.7% in November
    Published Thu, Dec 06 2018 10:19 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The November ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 60.7%, up from 60.3% in October. The employment index decreased in November to 58.4%, from 59.7%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: November 2018 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in November for the 106th consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: " The NMI® registered 60.7 percent , which is 0.4 percentage point higher than the October reading of 60.3 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a slightly faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 65.2 percent, 2.7 percentage points higher than the October reading of 62.5 percent, reflecting growth for the 112th consecutive month, at a faster rate in November. The New Orders Index registered 62.5 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the reading of 61.5 percent in October. The Employment Index decreased 1.3 percentage points in November to 58.4 percent from the October reading of 59.7 percent . The Prices Index rose 2.6 percentage points from the October reading of 61.7 percent to 64.3 percent, indicating that prices increased in November for the 33rd consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 17 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector continued to reflect strong growth in November. However, concerns persist about employment resources and the impact of tariffs. Respondents remain positive about current business conditions and the direction of the economy." emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the ISM non-manufacturing...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:50 AM » Trade Deficit increased to $55.5 Billion in October
    Published Thu, Dec 06 2018 9:50 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Department of Commerce reported : The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $55.5 billion in October, up $0.9 billion from $54.6 billion in September, revised. October exports were $211.0 billion, $0.3 billion less than September exports. October imports were $266.5 billion, $0.6 billion more than September imports. Click on graph for larger image. Exports decreased and imports increased in October. Exports are 28% above the pre-recession peak and up 6% compared to October 2017; imports are 15% above the pre-recession peak, and up 9% compared to October 2017. In general, trade has been picking up. The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Oil imports averaged $61.23 in October, down from $61.35 in September, and up from $47.27 in October 2017. The trade deficit with China increased to $43.1 billion in October, from $35.2 billion in October 2017.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:28 AM » ECB Is Set to Acknowledge Economic Slowdown, Press Ahead
    Published Thu, Dec 06 2018 9:28 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg ECB Is Set to Acknowledge Economic Slowdown, Press Ahead Bloomberg Growth has slowed materially, Italy's standoff with Brussels shows few signs of abating and the slump in oil prices threatens to depress pay growth. Against this backdrop, Bloomberg Economics expects the European Central Bank to lower its gross ...
  • 8:20 AM » Payroll growth slows in November as labor market tightens
    Published Thu, Dec 06 2018 8:20 AM by CNBC
    Companies slowed the pace of job creation in November as the labor market indicated more signs of tightening, according to ADP and Moody's Analytics. It says private payrolls increased by 179,000, below the 195,000 growth expected by a Refinitiv survey of economists. The number also was a drop from the 225,000 in October and below the 203,000 prior monthly average.
  • 8:08 AM » CoreLogic: 2.2 million Homes still in negative equity at end of Q3 2018
    Published Thu, Dec 06 2018 8:08 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports Homeowners with Negative Equity Declines by Only 81,000 in the Third Quarter of 2018 CoreLogic today released the Home Equity Report for the third quarter of 2018. The report shows that U.S. homeowners with mortgages (which account for roughly 63 percent of all properties) have seen their equity increase by 9.4 percent year over year, representing a gain of nearly $775.2 billion since the third quarter of 2017. Additionally, the average homeowner gained $12,400 in home equity between the third quarter of 2017 and the third quarter of 2018. While home equity grew in almost every state in the nation, western states experienced the most significant increases. California homeowners gained an average of approximately $36,500 in home equity, and Nevada homeowners experienced an average increase of approximately $32,600 in home equity. From the second quarter of 2018 to the third quarter of 2018, the total number of mortgaged homes in negative equity decreased 4 percent to 2.2 million homes or 4.1 percent of all mortgaged properties. Year over year, the number of mortgaged properties in negative equity fell 16 percent from 2.6 million homes - or 5 percent of all mortgaged properties - in the third quarter of 2018. " On average, homeowners saw their home equity increase again this quarter but not nearly as much as in previous quarters ," said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. "During the third quarter, homeowners gained an average of $12,400 compared to the second quarter when the average home equity wealth increase was more than $16,000. This lower year-over-year gain reflects the slowing in appreciation we've seen in the CoreLogic Home Price Index." Negative equity, often referred to as being underwater or upside down, applies to borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Negative equity can occur because of a decline in a home's value, an increase in mortgage debt or both...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:05 AM » Does an Inverted Yield Curve Mean a Recession Is Coming?
    Published Thu, Dec 06 2018 8:05 AM by Bloomberg
    Does an Inverted Yield Curve Mean a Recession Is Coming?    Bloomberg By one measure, the yield curve inverted on Monday: The interest rate on five-year Treasury bonds slipped below the rate on three-year bonds. That's a worrying ...
  • 8:02 AM » Wells Fargo reform plans fail to satisfy Fed after scandals: sources
    Published Thu, Dec 06 2018 8:02 AM by Reuters
    The Federal Reserve has rejected Wells Fargo & Co's plans to prevent further consumer abuses and told the scandal-plagued lender it needs stronger checks on management, according to three people with knowledge of the discussions.
  • Wed, Dec 5 2018
  • 1:20 PM » DoubleLine's Gundlach says Treasuries point to economy ready to weaken
    Published Wed, Dec 05 2018 1:20 PM by Reuters
    Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive officer of DoubleLine Capital, said the U.S. Treasury yield curve inversion on short-end maturities was signaling the "economy is poised to weaken."
  • 1:20 PM » More millennials think it's a priority to buy a home than to get married or have kids
    Published Wed, Dec 05 2018 1:20 PM by CNBC
    In Bank of America's 2018 Homebuyer Insights Report, millennials list owning a home as a top priority. The only goal they value more is being able to retire.
  • 1:19 PM » Lawler: US Death Rate Up, Life Expectancy Down in 2017
    Published Wed, Dec 05 2018 1:19 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    CR Note: The summary paragraph is key. Demographics are worse than they appeared a few years ago. From housing economist Tom Lawler: US Death Rate Up, Life Expectancy Down in 2017 The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) reported that there were 2,813,503 US deaths in 2017, 69,255 higher than in 2016. The "age-adjusted" death rate (per 100,000) increased to 731,9 in 2017 from 728.8 in 2016, while the estimated life expectancy at birth declined to 78.6 in 2017 from 78.7 in 2016. Below is a table showing some historical death rates for selected age groups. What is especially striking about this table is the sharp increase in death rates among 25-44 year old over the last five years. US Death Rates (deaths per 100,000 population), Total and Selected Age Groups (NCHS) Yr Total 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ Age Adj. 2000 854 80 101 199 426 992 2399 5667 15524 869 2005 828 81 107 195 432 899 2110 5252 14982 815 2010 800 68 103 171 407 852 1875 4790 13934 747 2011 807 68 105 172 410 849 1846 4753 13779 741 2012 810 66 105 171 405 854 1803 4675 13679 733 2013 822 65 106 172 406 860 1802 4648 13660 732 2013 824 66 108 175 405 870 1786 4564 13408 725 2015 824 66 108 175 405 870 1786 4564 13408 725 2016 844 75 129 192 406 884 1789 4475 13392 729 2017 864 74 133 195 402 886 1791 4473 13574 732 The NCHS also reported that there were 70,237 drug overdose deaths in 2017, up from 63,632 in 2016. Here is a table showing some historical drug overdose deaths for selected age groups. Drug Overdose Deaths by Selected Age Groups Year 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Total 2000 1,435 3,169 6,469 4,389 1,013 854 17,415 2005 2,918 5,340 8,506 8,968 2,761 1,203 29,813 2010 3,571 7,572 8,546 11,299 5,486 1,722 38,329 2011 3,762 8,445 9,130 11,933 6,060 1,892 41,340 2012 3,518 8,508 8,948 11,895 6,423 2,094 41,502 2013 3,664 8,947 9,320 12,045 7,551 2,344 43,982 2014 3,798 10,055 10,134 12,263 8,122 2,568 47,055 2015 4,235 11,880 11,505 12,974 8,901 2,760 52,404...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • Tue, Dec 4 2018
  • 5:13 PM » Investors Are Getting Nervous And Topsy-Turvy Interest Rates Are Proof
    Published Tue, Dec 04 2018 5:13 PM by
    The bond market is worried the trade war, slowing global growth and a drop in oil prices are signs the economy is slowing and may be heading for a recession. Nervousness spilled over into stocks too.
  • 4:14 PM » As markets turn, Fed says it is not fazed
    Published Tue, Dec 04 2018 4:14 PM by Reuters
    U.S. Federal Reserve officials convinced the massive U.S. bond market has fundamentally changed in the last decade are about to test their commitment to that idea against investors who have begun betting against the U.S. central bank's ability to continue raising interest rates.
  • 2:47 PM » What You Need to Buy a House in 2019
    Published Tue, Dec 04 2018 2:47 PM by
    You are about to embark on one of the most amazing and rewarding experiences that can ever come from spending money: buying a home. If you are buying a home in 2019, you should know that the entire process is not quick, but when all is said and done, there are few things more exhilarating […] The post What You Need to Buy a House in 2019 appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 2:46 PM » The 'yield curve' explained and whether it really is a barometer for the economy and markets
    Published Tue, Dec 04 2018 2:46 PM by CNBC
    When the difference between the short- and long-term rates narrows, it's a signal that people are less convinced growth is here to stay. The so-called yield curve is a barometer of this sentiment.
  • 2:46 PM » Homebuilders Slide as Toll Brothers Adds Fuel to Slowdown Fears
    Published Tue, Dec 04 2018 2:46 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Homebuilders Slide as Toll Brothers Adds Fuel to Slowdown Fears Bloomberg Homebuilder stocks fell broadly Tuesday -- on pace for their worst decline in almost three weeks -- after Toll Brothers Inc. reported fiscal fourth-quarter orders that missed estimates and cautioned that demand from buyers slowed further last month ... and more »
  • 2:46 PM » Agencies seek public comment on proposal to raise appraisal exemption threshold for residential real estate transactions
    Published Tue, Dec 04 2018 2:46 PM by Federal Reserve
    Agencies seek public comment on proposal to raise appraisal exemption threshold for residential real estate transactions
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Federal Reserve
  • 2:44 PM » Toll Bros outlook shows luxury sector hit hardest in housing's new chill
    Published Tue, Dec 04 2018 2:44 PM by CNBC
    The heat in housing demand is cooling across the nation and across most price points, but luxury is really feeling the chill. Luxury homebuilder Toll Bros. reported weaker demand, especially in California, where home prices are highest. Its CEO blamed both higher mortgage rates and weaker consumer confidence, due to widespread reports of housing weakness.
  • 11:58 AM » Millennials spend less than previous generations because they literally have less money, Fed says
    Published Tue, Dec 04 2018 11:58 AM by CNBC
    Millennials may seem to be "killing" some industries, but it's not necessarily their fault, research by the Federal Reserve suggests: They aren't spending money because they don't have it.
  • 11:39 AM » Dollar drops as U.S. Treasury yield curve inversion sparks recession fears
    Published Tue, Dec 04 2018 11:39 AM by Reuters
    The dollar fell broadly on Tuesday as U.S. Treasury yields slipped, feeding fears that the Federal Reserve could pause in its rate-hike cycle, while an inversion in part of the yield curve was taken as a red flag for a potential recession.
  • 11:11 AM » Fed's Williams expects further US rate increases into next year
    Published Tue, Dec 04 2018 11:11 AM by CNBC
    One of the most influential Federal Reserve policymakers said on Tuesday he expects further interest-rate hikes in the face of an economy "in really good shape" and a U.S. expansion that should mark a record length midway through next year.
  • 10:40 AM » Toll Brothers orders slump for first time in more than four years
    Published Tue, Dec 04 2018 10:40 AM by Reuters
    U.S. luxury home builder Toll Brothers Inc on Tuesday reported its first fall in quarterly orders in more than four years as rising mortgage rates and higher home prices hit demand, sending its shares down as much as 10 percent.
  • 9:34 AM » Futures drop on U.S-China trade deal doubt, bond market nerves
    Published Tue, Dec 04 2018 9:34 AM by Reuters
    U.S. stock index futures dipped on Tuesday as investors turned skeptical of the chances of a breakthrough in the U.S.-China trade talks, while a flattening U.S. yield curve raised fears of a slowing domestic economy.
  • 8:02 AM » Treasury yields continue slide with traders wary of upcoming Fed meeting
    Published Tue, Dec 04 2018 8:02 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices rose on Tuesday morning as traders contemplated future policy from the Federal Reserve and digested the trade cease-fire brokered between the United States and China.
  • 8:02 AM » Fed's Powell Says Strong Economy Hasn't Reached All Americans
    Published Tue, Dec 04 2018 8:02 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Fed's Powell Says Strong Economy Hasn't Reached All Americans Bloomberg Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that while the central bank has made progress toward a "strong economy" with rising wages, many lower-income workers have been left behind. "The Federal Reserve's mission is to promote a strong economy ... and more »
  • 8:01 AM » The thing the bond market most feared is beginning to happen
    Published Tue, Dec 04 2018 8:01 AM by CNBC
    The bond market sees storm clouds on the horizon, despite the trade ceasefire between President Donald Trump and China.
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