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  • Tue, Nov 25 2014
  • 8:26 AM » The top 400 households got 16 percent of all capital gains in 2010
    Published Tue, Nov 25 2014 8:26 AM by Washington Post
    This is what oligarchy looks like. In 2010, the IRS reports that the top 400 households - or the top 0.0003 percent, for those of you keeping score at home - took home 16 percent of all capital gains. That's right: one out of every six dollars that Americans made selling stocks, bonds, and real estate (worth more than $500,000) went to the top-third of the top-thousandth percent of households. Read full article >>
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Washington Post
  • 8:26 AM » US bonds rise ahead of GDP, 5-year auction
    Published Tue, Nov 25 2014 8:26 AM by CNBC
    U.S. sovereign bonds rose on Tuesday ahead of the second reading of third-quarter GDP.
  • 12:39 AM » Investors watch for surprises in US GDP
    Published Tue, Nov 25 2014 12:39 AM by CNBC
    Traders are watching for any surprises in revised third-quarter GDP data Tuesday and are keeping an eye on the oil market ahead of OPEC's meeting later this week.
  • Mon, Nov 24 2014
  • 11:52 PM » Wall Street group files lawsuit over risk retention
    Published Mon, Nov 24 2014 11:52 PM by Market Watch
    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - A Wall Street trade group is challenging a key plank in the Dodd-Frank financial-reform law that was designed to reduce risky loans. The Loan Syndications and Trading Association filed a lawsuit against the Federal Reserve and Securities and Exchange Commission, arguing the risk-retention rule at issue punishes an industry that played little role in the financial panic of 2008. The rule requires managers of certain collateralized securities to retain 5% of the amount of the loan, a move meant to deter risky behavior by ensuring that lenders have some "skin in the game." CLOs are a form of security backed by a pool of commercial or personal loans. Nearly $100 billion in CLOs were issued in 2013, acccording to J.P Morgan.
  • 11:51 PM » Make your 2015 Marketing Life-centric
    Published Mon, Nov 24 2014 11:51 PM by Realtor.Org
    No one ever gets up in the morning and says, "I want to buy a house today." Real estate is part of a journey that ebbs and flows with life as issues like debt payoff, confidence in the economy, and jobs allow for a purchase or sale. So for 2015, do something different and consider […]
  • 11:40 PM » Supreme Court to hear oral argument on Jan. 21st in FHA disparate impact case
    Published Mon, Nov 24 2014 11:40 PM by www.cfpbmonitor.com
    Peter N. Cubita The U.S. Supreme Court has set January 21, 2015 as the date for oral argument in Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs v. The Inclusive Communities Project, Inc., which is the case presenting the issue whether disparate impact claims are cognizable under the Fair Housing Act. The petitioners’ merits brief was filed on November 17th.... More >
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.cfpbmonitor.com
  • 4:31 PM » CFPB's first criminal referral ends in 9-year sentence
    Published Mon, Nov 24 2014 4:31 PM by www.cfpbmonitor.com
    Barbara S. Mishkin The CFPB's first publicly announced criminal referral has resulted in a nine-year sentence for the principal of a debt settlement company, who pled guilty to several of the charges. The referral, which was made to the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, arose out of the CFPB's investigation of two debt-relief service... More >
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.cfpbmonitor.com
  • 3:44 PM » 5 Things to Watch in the U.S. GDP Report
    Published Mon, Nov 24 2014 3:44 PM by WSJ
    Details matter in the revised reading of how the economy performed in the third quarter, which the Commerce Department releases Tuesday. Here are five things to watch.
  • 3:44 PM » Conservative ECB Officials Play Down Need for More Stimulus
    Published Mon, Nov 24 2014 3:44 PM by WSJ
    Officials from the European Central Bank's conservative wing on Monday signaled skepticism on the need for it to escalate its stimulus efforts, days after ECB President Mario Draghi fanned hopes for more aggressive measures to combat the risks of too-low inflation.
  • 3:44 PM » CFPB Fall 2014 rulemaking agenda indicates further delay in proposed debt collection and other rules
    Published Mon, Nov 24 2014 3:44 PM by www.cfpbmonitor.com
    Barbara S. Mishkin Based on the CFPB’s Fall 2014 rulemaking agenda, proposed rules dealing with payday loans/deposit advance products, overdrafts, and debt collection are still months away. The CFPB’s timetables for “prerule activities” are February 2015 for payday loans/deposit advance products, July 2015 for overdrafts, and April 2015 for debt collection. The CFPB’s Spring 2014 agenda had given... More >
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.cfpbmonitor.com
  • 3:43 PM » Jobs: Visualizing Recovery, State By State
    Published Mon, Nov 24 2014 3:43 PM by WSJ
    We've experimented with a mapping technique known as a cartogram, or a density-equalizing map, to better illustrate recent state-by-state unemployment figures.
  • 2:16 PM » Black Knight: House Price Index down slightly in September, Up 4.6% year-over-year
    Published Mon, Nov 24 2014 2:16 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). The timing of different house prices indexes; Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted. From Black Knight: U.S. Home Prices Down Slightly for the Month; Up 4.6 Percent Year-Over-Year Today, the Data and Analytics division of Black Knight Financial Services? released its latest Home Price Index (HPI) report, based on September 2014 residential real estate transactions. The Black Knight HPI combines the company's extensive property and loan-level databases to produce a repeat sales analysis of home prices as of their transaction dates every month for each of more than 18,500 U.S. ZIP codes. The Black Knight HPI represents the price of non-distressed sales by taking into account price discounts for REO and short sales. The Black Knight HPI declined 0.01% percent in September, and is off 10.2% from the peak in June 2006 (not adjusted for inflation). The year-over-year increases have been getting steadily smaller for the last year - as shown in the table below: Month YoY House Price Increase Jan-13 6.7% Feb-13 7.3% Mar-13 7.6% Apr-13 8.1% May-13 7.9% Jun-13 8.4% Jul-13 8.7% Aug-13 9.0% Sep-13 9.0% Oct-13 8.8% Nov-13 8.5% Dec-13 8.4% Jan-14 8.0% Feb-14 7.6% Mar-14 7.0% Apr-14 6.4% May-14 5.9% June-14 5.5% July-14 5.1% Aug-14 4.9% Sep-14 4.6% The press release has data for the 20 largest states, and 40 MSAs. Black Knight shows prices off 41.0% from the peak in Las Vegas, off 34.3% in Orlando, and 31.7% off from the peak in Riverside-San Bernardino, CA (Inland Empire). Prices are at new highs in Colorado and Texas (Denver, Austin, Dallas, Houston and San Antonio metros). Prices are also at new highs in Honolulu, HI, Nashville, TN and San Jose, CA. Note: Case-Shiller for September will be released tomorrow.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:15 PM » Treasuries Erase Losses After $28 Billion Sale of Two-Year Notes - Bloomberg
    Published Mon, Nov 24 2014 2:15 PM by Bloomberg
    Treasuries Erase Losses After $28 Billion Sale of Two-Year Notes Bloomberg Treasuries erased losses after the U.S. auctioned $28 billion of two-year notes to stronger-than-average demand. The securities drew a yield of 0.542 percent, compared with an average forecast of 0.551 percent in a survey of six of the Federal Reserve's 22 ...
  • 12:06 PM » Fed may raise rates 'to see what happens': Gundlach
    Published Mon, Nov 24 2014 12:06 PM by CNBC
    Bond guru Jeffrey Gundlach said he expects the Fed to raise rates in 2015, but not on the strength of economic fundamentals.
  • 12:06 PM » Big investors pull back on housing
    Published Mon, Nov 24 2014 12:06 PM by CNBC
    With home prices rising and fewer distressed homes, large-scale investors are being replaced by their smaller counterparts.
  • 11:25 AM » ECB's Weidmann: Monetary Policy Alone Can't Create Growth
    Published Mon, Nov 24 2014 11:25 AM by WSJ
    Germany's central bank president, Jens Weidmann, Monday expressed doubt that a potential government bond-buying program would increase growth in eurozone countries. Speaking in Madrid, Mr. Weidmann-who is a member of the European Central Bank's 24-strong governing council-said that monetary policy alone can't create growth, and must be based on higher productivity and policy reforms.
  • 11:00 AM » A 'landlord's market' expected for 2015, 2016: NAR
    Published Mon, Nov 24 2014 11:00 AM by Market Watch
    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The vacancy rate for apartment rentals is expected to head higher in a year, but conditions in the U.S. will still be considered a "landlord's market," according to data released Monday. This quarter's 4% vacancy rate for apartment rentals is likely to rise to 4.3% by the end of 2015, the National Association of Realtors reported. When rates are below 5%, landlords can typically raise rent. Rent growth is expected to hit about 3.9% in 2015 and 3.5% in 2016, compared with 4% this year, according to NAR's forecast.
  • 10:58 AM » Liquidity Drains Out of Bond Market as Top Funds Swell, BIS Says - Bloomberg
    Published Mon, Nov 24 2014 10:58 AM by Bloomberg
    Liquidity Drains Out of Bond Market as Top Funds Swell, BIS Says Bloomberg Liquidity is draining out of the world's bond markets because securities are being held by a shrinking number of fund mangers and banks are cutting back on trading, according to the Bank for International Settlements. The world's biggest 20 asset managers ...
  • 10:58 AM » Freddie Mac Improves Transparency of Single-Family Loan-Level Publicly Available Data
    Published Mon, Nov 24 2014 10:58 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Improves Transparency of Single-Family Loan-Level Publicly Available Data
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 9:53 AM » Euro zone yields hit lows: Is ECB trumping reality?
    Published Mon, Nov 24 2014 9:53 AM by CNBC
    The troika who bailed-out Ireland during the credit crisis, warned that it's budget "makes less progress than desirable" towards reducing deficit.
  • 9:01 AM » TransUnion: Auto Loan Delinquency Rate and Debt Rise Again
    Published Mon, Nov 24 2014 9:01 AM by transunion.mwnewsroom.com
    TransUnion: Auto Loan Delinquency Rate and Debt Rise Again<br/>http://transunion.mwnewsroom.com/press-releases/transunion-auto-loan-delinquency-rate-and-debt-ri-1160940?feed=abde9b49-8716-4c7b-b7a3-bff44ca35beb
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: transunion.mwnewsroom.com
  • 8:59 AM » Gas prices slide to 4-year low: Lundberg
    Published Mon, Nov 24 2014 8:59 AM by CNBC
    The price of a gallon of gasoline in the U.S. dropped 10 cents in the past two weeks, at a four-year low, according to the latest Lundberg survey.
  • 8:52 AM » Economic growth moderates in October, Chicago Fed national activity index shows
    Published Mon, Nov 24 2014 8:52 AM by Market Watch
    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Economic growth moderated in October, according to the Chicago Fed national activity index released Monday. The index fell to 0.14 from 0.29 in September. The three-month average declined to negative 0.01 from positive 0.12 in the prior month. The index, a weighted average of 85 different economic indicators, is designed so that readings above zero indicate above-trend growth. When the three-month average exceeds 0.7, there's an increasing likelihood of sustained increasing inflation, and when it's below negative 0.7, there's an increasing likelihood a recession has begun.
  • 8:52 AM » LendingClub's IPO Looms Over Alternative Lenders Seeking Funds - Bloomberg
    Published Mon, Nov 24 2014 8:52 AM by Bloomberg
    LendingClub's IPO Looms Over Alternative Lenders Seeking Funds Bloomberg It's not often one company can have as much impact on an entire industry as LendingClub Corp. will next month. LendingClub, which runs an online platform that links up borrowers with investors who want to fund them, may kick off its initial public offering as ... and more »
  • Sun, Nov 23 2014
  • 11:41 PM » Update: Business Cycles and Markets
    Published Sun, Nov 23 2014 11:41 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    For fun ... recently we've seen another recession call for 2015, this time from the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center (following their an incorrect recession call in 2011). Over the last few years, there were several incorrect recession calls from ECRI and others. I disagreed with all of them, and I wrote I wasn't even on recession watch then, and I'm not on recession watch now ! But why do we care? Here is a repeat of a post I wrote in early 2011 (with updated tables and charts): From 2011 [updates in brackets]: Here is something very different. This is NOT intended as investment advice. Why is there so much focus on the business cycle? For companies, especially cyclical companies, the reason is obvious - it helps with planning, staffing and investment. But why are investors so focused on the business cycle? Obviously earnings decline in a recession, and stock prices fall too. The following graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in the S&P 500 (using average monthly prices) since 1970. Notice that the market usually declines YoY in a recession. Note: Because this is "year-over-year" there is a lag to the S&P 500 data. [Graph updated to November 2014] Click on graph for larger image. So calling a recession isn't just an academic exercise, there is some opportunity to preserve capital. Not all downturns in the stock market are associated with recessions. As an example, the 1987 market crash was during an economic expansion. And the stock bubble collapse lasted from March 2000 through early 2003 - and the only official economic recession during that period was 7 months in 2001. Although I don't give investment advice, I think investors should measure their performance with some index. Warren Buffett likes to use the S&P 500 index, so I also used the S&P 500 for this exercise. Imagine if we could call recessions in real time, and if we could predict recoveries in advance. The following table shows the performance...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:26 PM » The $400 Billion Bond Mismatch Keeping Bears at Bay Seen Lasting - Bloomberg
    Published Sun, Nov 23 2014 11:26 PM by Bloomberg
    The $400 Billion Bond Mismatch Keeping Bears at Bay Seen Lasting Bloomberg Even in the $100 trillion market for bonds worldwide, one of the most persistent dilemmas facing potential buyers is a dearth of supply. Demand for debt securities has surpassed issuance five times in the past seven years, according to data compiled by ... and more »
  • 11:26 PM » Global business confidence plunges to post-crisis low
    Published Sun, Nov 23 2014 11:26 PM by CNBC
    Worldwide business confidence slumped to a five-year low, with company hiring and investment intentions at or near their weakest levels in the post-global financial crisis era, according to a new survey.
  • 11:13 PM » 2015 Housing Forecasts
    Published Sun, Nov 23 2014 11:13 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Update: I've added the MBA  and Goldman Sachs forecasts.  Also Wells Fargo updated their forecast (slight changes). Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year, and it looks like most analysts are optimistic for 2015. Here is a summary of forecasts for 2014 . In 2014, new home sales will be around 440 thousand, and total housing starts will be close to 1 million.  No one was close on New Home sales (all way too optimistic), and Michelle Meyer (Merrill Lynch) and Fannie Mae were the closest on housing starts (about 10% too high). In 2014, many analysts underestimated the impact of higher mortgage rates and higher new home prices on new home sales and starts. Note: Here is a summary of forecasts for 2013 . In 2013, new home sales were 429 thousand, and total housing starts were 925 thousand.  Barclays were the closest on New Home sales followed by David Crowe (NAHB).  Fannie Mae and the NAHB were the closest on housing starts. The table below shows several forecasts for 2015. From Fannie Mae: Housing Forecast: October 2014 From NAHB: Single-Family Production Poised to Take Off in 2015 I don't have Moody's Analytics' forecast, but Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics said today "that single-family starts could be closing in on 1 million units by the end of 2015 and multifamily production could go as high as 500,000 units."  That seems too high. I haven't worked up a forecast yet for 2015. Housing Forecasts for 2015 New Home Sales (000s) Single Family Starts (000s) Total Starts (000s) House Prices 1 Fannie Mae 523 783 1,170 4.9% 2 Goldman Sachs 521 1,166 3.1% Merrill Lynch 557 1,200 3.6% MBA 503 728 1,108 3.0% 2 NAHB 547 802 1,158 NAR 620 1,300 4% 3 Wells Fargo 530 770 1,160 3.3% Zillow   2.4% 4 1 Case-Shiller unless indicated otherwise 2 FHFA Purchase-Only Index 3 NAR Median Home price 4 Zillow Home...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • Fri, Nov 21 2014
  • 5:37 PM » CFPB Director Cordray Issues Warning to Bankers
    Published Fri, Nov 21 2014 5:37 PM by www.cfpbmonitor.com
    Jeremy T. Rosenblum Director Cordray’s remarks to the Clearing House yesterday should unsettle bankers and payday lenders alike. In his talk, Director Cordray challenged bankers to bow to the inevitable. He suggested that sooner, rather than later, the industry should invest the billions of dollars required to build a payment system with “faster and even real-time payments” where... More >
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.cfpbmonitor.com
  • 3:42 PM » Florida brokers prepare for rich, cold snowbirds
    Published Fri, Nov 21 2014 3:42 PM by CNBC
    Florida real estate brokers are looking for sales to heat up as the Northeast and Midwest shiver through the cold.
  • 3:42 PM » Fed's Bullard Says Markets Misread Him In October Bond-Buying Dustup
    Published Fri, Nov 21 2014 3:42 PM by WSJ
    The last month has been challenging time for St. Louis Fed President James Bullard.
  • 1:40 PM » Is immigration reform the housing market's big hope?
    Published Fri, Nov 21 2014 1:40 PM by Washington Post
    About a year ago, President Obama showed up at a Phoenix high school to promote changes to immigration law, just as he's doing Friday at a high school in Las Vegas, where he's rallying support for his decision to protect millions of illegal immigrants from deportation. Read full article >>
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Washington Post
  • 1:40 PM » Economy, eager buyers drive high-end home sales
    Published Fri, Nov 21 2014 1:40 PM by CNBC
    Top home tier listings rose in more than 82 percent of the markets reviewed by Zillow compared to a year ago. And people are buying.
  • 11:55 AM » Joblessness Fell in Most States in October. How Does Yours Compare?
    Published Fri, Nov 21 2014 11:55 AM by WSJ
    The lowest unemployment rates in the U.S. remained concentrated in the Midwest last month, though broad improvement across the country signals a steadily improving economy.
  • 11:55 AM » CFPB gives guidance and answers FAQ on the new Closing Disclosure
    Published Fri, Nov 21 2014 11:55 AM by www.cfpbmonitor.com
    Marc Patterson On November 18, 2014, the CFPB staff and Federal Reserve Board co-hosted a webinar that addressed questions about the Final TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosure Rule that will be effective for applications received by creditors or mortgage brokers on or after August 1, 2015. The webinar focused on the Closing Disclosure and addressed specific questions regarding the... More >
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.cfpbmonitor.com
  • 11:21 AM » Proposed changes to our Mortgage Servicing Rules: New protections for surviving family members and other homeowners
    Published Fri, Nov 21 2014 11:21 AM by CFPB
    Today, we're proposing changes to our Mortgage Servicing Rules, which took effect on January 10, 2014. These rules provide important protections for consumers with mortgages, including: Requiring mortgage servicers (people who manage your mortgage loan account) to provide you with periodic mortgage statements or coupon books that give you important information about your mortgage. Requiring […]
  • 10:31 AM » Commercial Real Estate Is Now a Market of the Haves and Have Nots
    Published Fri, Nov 21 2014 10:31 AM by WSJ
    The rebounding real estate market isn't treating all commercial property owners equally.
  • 9:00 AM » Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies decreased in October, Lowest in Seven Years
    Published Fri, Nov 21 2014 9:00 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    According to Black Knight's First Look report for October, the percent of loans delinquent decreased in October compared to September, and declined by 12% year-over-year.  Mortgage delinquencies are at the lowest level since November 2007. Also the percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined further in October and were down 33% over the last year.  Foreclosure inventory was at the lowest level since February 2008. Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 5.44% in October, down from 5.67% in September. The normal rate for delinquencies is around 4.5% to 5%. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined to 1.69% in October from 1.76% in September. The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 393,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is down 418,000 properties year-over-year. Black Knight will release the complete mortgage monitor for October in early December. Black Knight: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process   Oct 2014 Sept 2014 Oct 2013 Oct 2012 Delinquent 5.44% 5.67% 6.28% 7.40% In Foreclosure 1.69% 1.76% 2.54% 3.87% Number of properties: Number of properties that are 30 or more, and less than 90 days past due, but not in foreclosure: 1,658,000 1,760,000 1,869,000 1,957,000 Number of properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in foreclosure: 1,101,000 1,118,000 1,283,000 1,543,000 Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory: 858,000 893,000 1,276,000 1,800,000 Total Properties 3,617,000 3,771,000 4,427,000 5,300,000
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:00 AM » A Jumbo Challenge for Retirees
    Published Fri, Nov 21 2014 9:00 AM by WSJ
    Because of income requirements, retirees may have trouble qualifying for a jumbo mortgage. Advance planning can avert these issues.
  • 12:15 AM » Quarterly Housing Starts by Intent
    Published Fri, Nov 21 2014 12:15 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    In addition to housing starts for October, the Census Bureau also released the Q3 " Started and Completed by Purpose of Construction " report yesterday. It is important to remember that we can't directly compare single family housing starts to new home sales. For starts of single family structures, the Census Bureau includes owner built units and units built for rent that are not included in the new home sales report. For an explanation, see from the Census Bureau: Comparing New Home Sales and New Residential Construction We are often asked why the numbers of new single-family housing units started and completed each month are larger than the number of new homes sold. This is because all new single-family houses are measured as part of the New Residential Construction series (starts and completions), but only those that are built for sale are included in the New Residential Sales series. However it is possible to compare "Single Family Starts, Built for Sale" to New Home sales on a quarterly basis. The quarterly report released yesterday showed there were 125,000 single family starts, built for sale, in Q3 2014, and that was above the 111,000 new homes sold for the same quarter, so inventory increased in Q3 (Using Not Seasonally Adjusted data for both starts and sales). The first graph shows quarterly single family starts, built for sale and new home sales (NSA). Click on graph for larger image. In 2005, and most of 2006, starts were higher than sales, and inventories of new homes increased. The difference on this graph is pretty small, but the builders were starting about 30,000 more homes per quarter than they were selling (speculative building), and the inventory of new homes soared to record levels. Inventory of under construction and completed new home sales peaked at 477,000 in Q3 2006. In 2008 and 2009, the home builders started far fewer homes than they sold as they worked off the excess inventory that they had built up in 2005 and 2006...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
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Mortgage Rates:
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  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.73%
MBS Prices:
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 110-28 (0-01)
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Recent Housing Data:
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  • Refinance Index 0.90%
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  • FHFA Home Price Index 0.67%