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  • Fri, Sep 18 2020
  • 2:11 PM » Refinancing your mortgage will cost more thanks to an 'adverse market' fee
    Published Fri, Sep 18 2020 2:11 PM by CNBC
    Homeowners who refinance their mortgage may end up paying a higher interest rate. This is because lenders may pass on some of the costs incurred from an "adverse market" fee that they will soon have to start paying on certain loans sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
  • 1:09 PM » Stimulus checks. The eviction ban. Unemployment benefits. Here's what relief measures you can rely on
    Published Fri, Sep 18 2020 1:09 PM by CNBC
    There's been a lot of news on where relief measures stand. Here's a breakdown of what money and protections you can actually count on.
  • 1:09 PM » Housing Market White Hot After Labor Day: Home Prices Up 13%, Pending Sales Up 27%
    Published Fri, Sep 18 2020 1:09 PM by www.redfin.com
    For the four-week period ending September 13, home prices were up 13%, pending sales rose 27%, and new listings were 6% higher than the same period in 2019. The post Housing Market White Hot After Labor Day: Home Prices Up 13%, Pending Sales Up 27% appeared first on Redfin | Real Estate Tips for Home Buying, Selling & More .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 12:39 PM » Fed's Bullard says 'biggest growth quarter of all time' will lift inflation
    Published Fri, Sep 18 2020 12:39 PM by CNBC
    Bullard also said he sees the unemployment rate falling to 6.5% by the end of the year, an estimate well below the median projection of 7.6% that his Fed colleagues released earlier this week.
  • 11:29 AM » BLS: August Unemployment rates down in 41 states
    Published Fri, Sep 18 2020 11:29 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Unemployment rates were lower in August in 41 states , higher in 2 states, and stable in 7 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. All 50 states and the District had jobless rate increases from a year earlier. The national unemployment rate fell by 1.8 percentage points over the month to 8.4 percent but was 4.7 points higher than in August 2019. ... Nevada had the highest unemployment rate in August, 13.2 percent , followed by Rhode Island, 12.8 percent, and Hawaii and New York, 12.5 percent each. Nebraska had the lowest rate, 4.0 percent , followed by Utah, 4.1 percent, and Idaho, 4.2 percent.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:57 AM » Metrics show consumers pulling back on spending in September as Congress debates second stimulus
    Published Fri, Sep 18 2020 10:57 AM by CNBC
    After spending more in the summer as economies reopened and stimulus checks hit their bank accounts, U.S. consumers are spending less.
  • 7:59 AM » Government mortgage bailout numbers improve slowly, but the real test is ahead
    Published Fri, Sep 18 2020 7:59 AM by CNBC
    The number of borrowers in government covid-related mortgage bailout programs is shrinking, but those in private-label or bank bailouts is rising.
  • Thu, Sep 17 2020
  • 4:07 PM » How Much Can You Negotiate on a House, Really?
    Published Thu, Sep 17 2020 4:07 PM by www.redfin.com
    So, you've finally found the perfect home and you've submitted your offer. In an ideal situation, the seller would accept it, you'd close, and the home would be yours. However, it's not always that easy. In fact, it's likely the seller will submit a counter offer.This is when negotiations begin. Even if you have a … How Much Can You Negotiate on a House, Really? Read More » The post How Much Can You Negotiate on a House, Really? appeared first on Redfin | Real Estate Tips for Home Buying, Selling & More .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 1:56 PM » CAR on California August Housing: Sales up 15% YoY, Active Listings down 50% YoY, Sales-to-date Down 7% Compared to 2019
    Published Thu, Sep 17 2020 1:56 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The CAR reported: California housing market continues recovery as median home price breaks $700,000 mark, C.A.R. reports California's housing market continued to improve in August as home sales climbed to their highest level in more than a decade as the median home price broke last month's record and hit another high, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today. Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 465,400 units in August, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2020 if sales maintained the August pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales. August's sales total climbed above the 400,000 level for the second straight month since the COVID-19 crisis depressed the housing market earlier this year, marking the first time since the summer of 2016 that sales increased from the previous month three months in a row. August sales rose 6.3 percent from 437,890 in July and were up 14.6 percent from a year ago , when 406,100 homes were sold on an annualized basis. ... With fewer for-sale properties being added to the market, housing supply remained significantly below last year's level. The 50.3 percent drop from a year ago was the biggest decline in active listings since at least January 2008. It was also the ninth consecutive month with active listings falling more than 25 percent from the prior year. emphasis added CR Note: Existing home sales are reported when the transaction closes, so this was mostly for contracts signed in June and July. Sales-to-date, through August, are down 6.8% compared to the same period in 2019 .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:56 PM » 8 Dome Homes for Buyers in Search of Something Different
    Published Thu, Sep 17 2020 1:56 PM by www.realtor.com
    These domed homes aren't for everyone, but they are a welcome alternative to the boxy tract homes so common throughout the country. The post 8 Dome Homes for Buyers in Search of Something Different appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 9:23 AM » Housing Starts decreased to 1.416 Million Annual Rate in August
    Published Thu, Sep 17 2020 9:23 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,416,000 . This is 5.1 percent below the revised July estimate of 1,492,000, but is 2.8 percent above the August 2019 rate of 1,377,000. Single-family housing starts in August were at a rate of 1,021,000; this is 4.1 percent above the revised July figure of 981,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 375,000. Building Permits: Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,470,000. This is 0.9 percent below the revised July rate of 1,483,000 and is 0.1 percent below the August 2019 rate of 1,471,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 1,036,000; this is 6.0 percent above the revised July figure of 977,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 381,000 in August. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years. Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) were up downAugust compared to July.   Multi-family starts were down 15% year-over-year in August. Single-family starts (blue) increased in August, and were up 12% year-over-year. The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968. The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then eventual recovery (but still historically low). Total housing starts in August were below expectations, however starts in June and July were revised up, combined. I'll have more later
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:34 AM » U.S. weekly jobless claims total 860,000, vs 875,000 expected
    Published Thu, Sep 17 2020 8:34 AM by CNBC
    First-time claims for unemployment insurance were expected to total 875,000 last week, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.
  • 8:05 AM » European stocks head for lower open as markets react to Fed meeting
    Published Thu, Sep 17 2020 8:05 AM by CNBC
    European stocks are expected to open lower Thursday as investors around the world react to the latest U.S. Federal Reserve meeting.
  • 8:05 AM » With Mortgage Rates at Record Lows, How Can Buyers Know When To Pounce?
    Published Thu, Sep 17 2020 8:05 AM by www.realtor.com
    The question on the minds of many home buyers and owners is if mortgage rates can fall even further-and just how low they can go. The post With Mortgage Rates at Record Lows, How Can Buyers Know When To Pounce? appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 8:04 AM » Treasury yields retreat as caution over recovery remains despite Fed support
    Published Thu, Sep 17 2020 8:04 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices were higher Thursday morning, as investors remained hesitant despite the Federal Reserve's pledge not to hike interest rates until 2023.
  • Wed, Sep 16 2020
  • 4:46 PM » Fed picks its side in inflation debate and sends market a message — no rate hikes for years
    Published Wed, Sep 16 2020 4:46 PM by CNBC
    The Fed does not expect to see inflation to pick up for years, and it is willing to keep rates at zero even after it does.
  • 2:19 PM » Fed holds rate steady and promises to stay there for years
    Published Wed, Sep 16 2020 2:19 PM by CNBC
    Fed holds rate steady and promises to stay there for years<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/16/fed-meeting-decision-interest-rates.html
  • 1:55 PM » Coronavirus crisis caused 40% of parents to change their job situation, survey finds
    Published Wed, Sep 16 2020 1:55 PM by CNBC
    The coronavirus crisis caused 40% of parents to change their job situation, a new FlexJobs survey finds. Women have been disproportionately hit, with 17% having to quit their jobs, compared to 10% of men.
  • 1:54 PM » Watch Fed Chair Powell discuss the central bank's latest decision — with live updates & analysis
    Published Wed, Sep 16 2020 1:54 PM by CNBC
    Watch Fed Chair Powell live as he details the central bank's policy decision and answers questions from reporters.
  • 10:10 AM » Homebuilder sentiment soars to record high, but lumber prices raise a red flag
    Published Wed, Sep 16 2020 10:10 AM by CNBC
    Builder confidence in the market for single-family homes rose in September to the highest reading in the NAHB/Wells Fargo index's 35-year history.
  • 8:56 AM » Retail Sales increased 0.6% in August
    Published Wed, Sep 16 2020 8:56 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.6 percent from July to August (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 2.6 percent from August 2019. From the Census Bureau report : Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $537.5 billion, an increase of 0.6 percent from the previous month, and 2.6 percent above August 2019. Total sales for the June 2020 through August 2020 period were up 2.4 percent from the same period a year ago. The June 2020 to July 2020 percent change was revised from up 1.2 percent to up 0.9 percent. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales ex-gasoline were up 0.6% in August. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 4.0% on a YoY basis. The increase in August was below expectations, and sales in June and July were revised down, combined.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:02 AM » In last meeting before election, the Fed could placate markets with promise of low rates for years
    Published Wed, Sep 16 2020 8:02 AM by CNBC
    The Fed is unlikely to take any policy actions Wednesday, but it is expected to say it will keep its dovish policies in place for years.
  • 8:02 AM » Treasury yields edge lower as investors await Fed verdict
    Published Wed, Sep 16 2020 8:02 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices were slightly higher Wednesday morning as investors awaited the outcome of the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting, which should offer a glimpse into the country's economic recovery prospects.
  • Tue, Sep 15 2020
  • 3:58 PM » Here's how homeowners can prepare for insurance claims after Hurricane Sally
    Published Tue, Sep 15 2020 3:58 PM by CNBC
    As the slow-moving storm heads toward several states along the Gulf of Mexico, there may be steps you can take to prepare yourself for the possibility of having to file an insurance claim due to damage to your home.
  • 3:58 PM » The Fed could could still move markets Wednesday even with rates on hold for the foreseeable
    Published Tue, Sep 15 2020 3:58 PM by CNBC
    The Federal Open Market Committee will provide its quarterly update on where it sees GDP, unemployment and inflation heading.
  • 1:58 PM » Technical Note: September Employment Report Will Probably Show a Decrease in Temporary Census Workers
    Published Tue, Sep 15 2020 1:58 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Census Bureau released an update today on 2020 Census Paid Temporary Workers As of the August reference week, there were 288,204 decennial Census temporary workers. As of week of August 30 to September 5, there were 267,155 temp workers. That was a decrease of around 21,000 . Last week was the BLS reference week , and it seems likely there were even fewer temporary workers were on the payroll last week (to be released next week). This means the September employment report will show a decrease in temporary Census employment.  In August, the employment report showed a gain of 238,000 temporary 2020 Census workers, boosting the headline number.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:58 PM » JPMorgan CEO says a failure to think long-term is causing governments to make ‘really dumb decisions'
    Published Tue, Sep 15 2020 12:58 PM by CNBC
    Short-term thinking is causing governments around the world to make "really dumb decisions" on economic policy, according to J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon.
  • 12:56 PM » Inspector General Slams FEMA Over Repeatedly Flooded Homes
    Published Tue, Sep 15 2020 12:56 PM by www.npr.org
    At least 37,000 homes in the U.S. have flooded multiple times. The people who own them are eligible for federal help, but a new report finds that FEMA often fails to provide that assistance.
  • 11:04 AM » "Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2019"
    Published Tue, Sep 15 2020 11:04 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    This survey was impacted by COVID, and the results are probably distorted (see last paragraph below). From the Census Bureau: Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2019 The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that median household income in 2019 increased 6.8% from 2018, and the official poverty rate decreased 1.3 percentage points. Meanwhile the percentage of people with health insurance coverage for all or part of 2019 was 92.0% and 8.0% of people, or 26.1 million, did not have health insurance at any point during 2019, according to the 2020 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC). Median household income was $68,703 in 2019, an increase of 6.8% from the 2018 median. Between 2018 and 2019, the real median earnings of all workers increased by 1.4% , while the real median earnings of full-time, year-round workers increased 0.8%. The official poverty rate in 2019 was 10.5%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from 11.8% in 2018. This is the fifth consecutive annual decline in the national poverty rate. Since 2014, the poverty rate has fallen 4.3 percentage points, from 14.8% to 10.5%. The 2019 poverty rate of 10.5% is the lowest rate observed since estimates were initially published for 1959. The number of people in poverty in 2019 was 34.0 million, 4.2 million fewer people than 2018. ... While the Census Bureau went to great lengths to complete interviews by telephone, the response rate for the CPS basic household survey was 73% in March 2020, about 10 percentage points lower than in preceding months and the same period in 2019, which were regularly above 80%. The change from conducting first interviews in person to making first contacts by telephone contributed to the lower response rates and it is likely that the characteristics of people for whom a telephone number was found may be systematically different from the people for whom the Census Bureau was unable to obtain a telephone number. emphasis added
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:01 AM » 26% of Americans have taken advantage of some type of payment deferral plan
    Published Tue, Sep 15 2020 10:01 AM by CNBC
    About one in four Americans say that because of Covid-19, they've taken advantage of some sort of payment deferral program. Navigating these programs can be challenging, but experts say that taking some simple steps and doing your homework can help you avoid pitfalls.
  • 9:50 AM » Industrial Production Increased 0.4 Percent in August; Still 7.2% Below Pre-Crisis Level
    Published Tue, Sep 15 2020 9:50 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production rose 0.4 percent in August for its fourth consecutive monthly increase. However, even after the recent gains, the index in August was 7.3 percent below its pre-pandemic February level. Manufacturing output continued to improve in August, rising 1.0 percent, but the gains for most manufacturing industries have gradually slowed since June. Mining production fell 2.5 percent in August, as Tropical Storm Marco and Hurricane Laura caused sharp but temporary drops in oil and gas extraction and well drilling. The output of utilities moved down 0.4 percent. At 101.4 percent of its 2012 average, the level of total industrial production was 7.7 percent lower in August than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.3 percentage point in August to 71.4 percent , a rate that is 8.4 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2019) average but 7.3 percentage points above its low in April. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April, but still well below the level in February 2020. Capacity utilization at 71.4% is 8.4% below the average from 1972 to 2017. Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change. The second graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production increased in August to  101.4. This is 7.2% below the February 2020 level. The change in industrial production was below consensus expectations, however industrial production in June and July were revised up.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:27 AM » Strong Year-over-Year Gains for July Single-Family Permits
    Published Tue, Sep 15 2020 9:27 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    Over the first seven months of 2020, total single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 525,623. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is an 5.8% increase over the July 2019 level of 496,726. Year-to-date ending in July, single-family permits across the four regions ranged from an increase of 8.6% in the South to a decline of 1.7% in the Northeast.... Read More › The post Strong Year-over-Year Gains for July Single-Family Permits first appeared on Eye On Housing .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 9:14 AM » The Federal Reserve will stay on hold until 2023, according to CNBC survey
    Published Tue, Sep 15 2020 9:14 AM by CNBC
    The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at near zero until February 2023, according to latest CNBC Fed Survey.
  • 9:14 AM » U.S. bond yields rise ahead of Federal Reserve meeting
    Published Tue, Sep 15 2020 9:14 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices dropped Tuesday ahead of Federal Reserve meeting scheduled this week.
  • 9:14 AM » Some economists predict coronavirus could end globalization, while others see the nature and rules of international collaboration changing
    Published Tue, Sep 15 2020 9:14 AM by CNBC
    Some economists warn we have entered into an era of deglobalization, while others see small bright spots for innovation. Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, for example, said policymakers should view the move toward deglobalization as one that is focused on resiliency for the supply chain, not job protection. Watch the video to find out how other economists predict the coronavirus will impact globalization.
  • 9:14 AM » NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity expanded at a solid clip in New York State" in September
    Published Tue, Sep 15 2020 9:14 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey Business activity expanded at a solid clip in New York State, according to firms responding to the September 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed thirteen points to 17.0. ... The index for number of employees held steady at 2.6, indicating little change in employment levels . The average workweek index rose fourteen points to 6.7, its first positive reading since the pandemic began, signaling an increase in hours worked. emphasis added This was above expectations, and showed activity expanded in September.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • Mon, Sep 14 2020
  • 4:07 PM » In Photos: Oregon wildfires devastate communities as fires rage on
    Published Mon, Sep 14 2020 4:07 PM by CNBC
    A week after wildfires began consuming thousands of acres of land in Oregon, firefighters are still working to contain some of the most destructive blazes in the state's history.
  • 4:04 PM » MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Declines to 7.01%", Forbearance Requests Increase
    Published Mon, Sep 14 2020 4:04 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: This is as of September 6th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Declines to 7.01% The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 15 basis points from 7.16% of servicers' portfolio volume in the prior week to 7.01% as of September 6, 2020 . According to MBA's estimate, 3.5 million homeowners are in forbearance plans . ... "The beginning of September brought another drop in the share of loans in forbearance, with declines in both GSE and Ginnie Mae forbearance shares. However, at least a portion of the decline in the Ginnie Mae share was due to servicers buying delinquent loans out of pools and placing them on their portfolios. As a result of this transfer, the share of portfolio loans in forbearance increased," said Mike Fratantoni, MBA's Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. " Forbearance requests increased over the week , particularly for Ginnie Mae loans. With just under 1 million unemployment insurance claims still being filed every week, the lack of additional fiscal support for the unemployed could lead to even higher increases of those needing forbearance ." By stage, 33.69% of total loans in forbearance are in the initial forbearance plan stage, while 65.35% are in a forbearance extension. The remaining 0.96% are forbearance re-entries. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time.  Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has been trending down for the last ten weeks. The MBA notes: "Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) increased relative to the prior week: from 0.09% to 0.11%." There hasn't been a pickup in forbearance activity related to the end of the extra unemployment benefits.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:09 PM » Recession Measures and NBER
    Published Mon, Sep 14 2020 12:09 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Calling the beginning or end of a recession usually takes time.   However, the economic decline in March was so severe that the National Bureau of Economic Research ( NBER) has already called the end of the expansion in February . The committee has determined that a peak in monthly economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in February 2020. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in June 2009 and the beginning of a recession. The expansion lasted 128 months, the longest in the history of U.S. business cycles dating back to 1854. The previous record was held by the business expansion that lasted for 120 months from March 1991 to March 2001. ... The usual definition of a recession involves a decline in economic activity that lasts more than a few months. However, in deciding whether to identify a recession, the committee weighs the depth of the contraction, its duration, and whether economic activity declined broadly across the economy (the diffusion of the downturn). The committee recognizes that the pandemic and the public health response have resulted in a downturn with different characteristics and dynamics than prior recessions. Nonetheless, it concluded that the unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production, and its broad reach across the entire economy, warrants the designation of this episode as a recession, even if it turns out to be briefer than earlier contractions. The NBER will probably wait some time before calling the end of the recession, this process can take from 18 months to two years or longer. In the mean time, if the economy slides into recession again, the committee will only consider it a new recession if most major indicators were close to or above their previous highs. Otherwise it will just be considered a continuation of the previous recession. A good example of the NBER calling two separate recessions was in the early '80s, from the NBER memo : "The period following July 1980 will appear...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:08 AM » Multifamily Construction Gains for Lower-Density Markets
    Published Mon, Sep 14 2020 10:08 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    The Q2 2020 NAHB Home Building Geography Index (HBGI) reveals a notable multifamily construction shift to the suburbs/exurbs. This is similar to HBGI findings reported for single-family construction. A driver of this broader impact is COVID-19, which thus far has had larger impacts on higher density neighborhoods. These geographic changes will ultimately generate market share gains for smaller multifamily structures,... Read More › The post Multifamily Construction Gains for Lower-Density Markets first appeared on Eye On Housing .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
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